The use of energy models in heating transition decision making

Abstract

In 2018 the Dutch national government announced its decision to end natural gas extraction. This decision poses a challenge for local governments (municipalities) which have to organize a heat supply that is natural gas-free. Energy models can decrease the complexity of this challenge, but some challenges hinder the effective use of energy models for heat transition decision-making. The present study aims to bridge current knowledge gaps by providing insight into the advantages and limitations of using energy models in the heating transition and by providing recommendations for more effective use. To this end, literature on energy models, data-driven policy design and good modelling practices is reviewed, and case studies are conducted, including ten Dutch municipalities and 23 (expert) interviews. According to interviewees data, advantages of using energy models in heating transition projects are that the modelling process provides perspective for action, financial and socio-economic insights, transparency and legitimacy and means to start useful discussions. Perceived limitations include that models and modelling results are considered too abstract for local analysis, not user-friendly and complex. The present study concludes that the use of energy models in heating transition projects can become more effective by developing and preserving knowledge regarding energy modelling at municipalities, by providing more user-friendly models and/or model interfaces, by developing more efficient data collection processes at municipalities, by improving heat source, energy use and thermal insulation level data sets, by offering comparative modelling studies and by ensuring model developers collaborate and specialize more.