Tropical cyclone hazards in the Caribbean
Analysing historical and synthetic events by modelling wind, surge, and rainfall
L.A. de Valk (TU Delft - Civil Engineering & Geosciences)
S.L.M. Lhermitte – Graduation committee member (TU Delft - Mathematical Geodesy and Positioning)
P.H.A.J.M. van Gelder – Graduation committee member (TU Delft - Safety and Security Science)
A.M. Droste – Graduation committee member (TU Delft - Water Systems Monitoring & Modelling)
Marc van den Homberg – Mentor (Red Cross 510 )
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Abstract
Hieronder een korte samenvatting. Conclusies toevoegen vond ik nog lastig, maar als je dat wel graag hebt kan ik er wel nog een keer naar kijken. Verder; zijn bronvermeldingen nodig?
The Caribbean region is highly exposed to natural hazards, particularly tropical cyclones (TCs). Their impacts vary between islands, depending on hazard intensity and duration as well as local exposure and vulnerability.
A study is done focusing on the Leeward Islands (Martinique to Puerto Rico), investigating the spatial variability of three TC-related hazards: high wind speeds, storm surge, and extreme precipitation. Maximum wind speeds and their return periods are quantified using the numerical Holland (2008) wind field model. Storm surge is estimated with a simplified approximation based on the SLOSH model, which is translated into flooded areas and corresponding return periods. Total precipitation during a storm is modelled using the parametric Tropical Cyclone Rainfall (TCR) model, and return periods are determined for this hazard as well.
As input data, historical TC tracks from the IBTrACS database (1940–2024) are used, as well as synthetic tracks from STORM. All hazard modelling is carried out in CLIMADA, an open-source Python framework for climate risk assessment developed by ETH Zurich. Results are compared between islands and against regional averages, supporting the PARATUS project’s feasibility study on a regional Early Action Protocol for TCs in Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, and Saint Kitts and Nevis.
We see that for tropical cyclone-related wind speeds, the Leeward Islands are exposed to a similar severity. For precipitation, a larger spread is found, mostly depending on the presence of mountainous regions on an island.