Developing a dynamic model for pitting and corrosion-fatigue damage of subsea pipelines

Journal article (2018)

Authors

E. Arzaghi University of Tasmania, Wind Energy - Aerospace Engineering
Rouzbeh Abbassi University of Tasmania
Vikram Garaniya University of Tasmania
Jonathan Binns University of Tasmania
Christopher Chin University of Tasmania
N. Khakzad Rostami Safety and Security Science - TPM
G.L.L.M.E. Reniers Safety and Security Science - TPM
Research Group
Wind Energy (Aerospace Engineering) (TU Delft)
Subsea pipelines Probabilistic modelling Dynamic bayesian network Corrosion-fatigue
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Published Date

2018

Language

English

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Faculty

Aerospace Engineering

Department

Flow Physics and Technology

Research Group

Wind Energy

Abstract

Degradation of subsea pipelines in the presence of corrosive agents and cyclic loads may lead to the failure of these structures. In order to improve their reliability, the deterioration process through pitting and corrosion-fatigue phenomena should be considered simultaneously for prognosis. This process starts with pitting nucleation, transits to fatigue damage and leads to fracture and is influenced by many factors such as material and process conditions, each incorporating a high level of uncertainty. This study proposes a novel probabilistic methodology for integrated modelling of pitting and corrosion-fatigue degradation processes of subsea pipelines. The entire process is modelled using a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) methodology, representing its temporal nature and varying growth rates. The model also takes into account the factors influencing each stage of the process. To demonstrate its application, the methodology is applied to estimate the remaining useful life of high strength steel pipelines. This information along with Bayesian updating based on monitoring results can be adopted for the development of effective maintenance strategies.