Techno-economic analysis of catalytic methane pyrolysis in a fluidized bed reactor with reactor-scale catalyst deactivation modeling

Abstract

Methane pyrolysis is a promising route for low-emission hydrogen (H₂) production, with solid carbon as a potentially valuable byproduct. Despite this potential, the economic feasibility of Catalytic Methane Pyrolysis (CMP) with fluidized bed reactors (FBR) has been insufficiently studied. This study develops a conceptual CMP plant using two novel isothermal reactor models—based on continuous stirred-tank reactor (CSTR) and plug-flow reactor (PFR) assumptions—to represent the operational extremes of FBRs. Our reactor models incorporate reaction and catalyst deactivation kinetics from experiments with nickel-supported catalysts, and the framework enables process simulations that account for the catalyst rate required to sustain reactor activity. These models address the lack of proper reduced-order FBR models and the reliance on oversimplified assumptions in the literature. In the baseline scenario, the conceptual plant yields an LCOH ranging from $3.89 to $4.79 per kilogram, defining the expected cost bounds for an FBR-based CMP plant. At a H₂ selling price of $5.00 per kilogram, the process achieves favorable payback time and net present value. Monte Carlo and sensitivity analyses indicate that CMP remains cost-competitive under economic uncertainties. Increased carbon sales could make CMP more economical than steam methane reforming, while unsold byproducts may incur costly sequestration. Reactor heating assessment shows methane combustion with carbon capture minimizes both cost and emissions. Overall, this work demonstrates the economic potential of CMP for H₂ production and provides a practical modeling framework for process evaluation.