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Eker, S. (author), Slinger, J.H. (author), Yucel, G. (author)
Automated sensitivity analysis approaches in system dynamics focus primarily on model parameters. Although table functions are often subjectively approximated, they do not form the focus of most sensitivity analyses. Recently, a promising approach that allows automation of sensitivity analysis on functions was proposed by Hearne (2010), but the...
conference paper
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Slinger, J.H. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Van der Niet, M. (author)
In this paper we address the role of reflective skills in the development and training of new System Dynamics modelers at the tertiary education level. Over the last two years students at the Delft University of Technology have written a reflective essay on their experiences with the conceptualization, formulation, validation and use of a System...
conference paper 2008
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Lauwers, L. (author), Pruyt, E. (author), Hens, L. (author), Brans, J.p. (author)
This paper presents a system dynamics model to study the spread of HIV/AIDS in Southern Africa. The HIV/AIDS model includes important feedback mechanisms of the spread of HIV/AIDS, and partly explains the dynamics of the epidemic in a representative Southern African country. The HIV/AIDS model indicates that prevention to reduce risk behavior is...
conference paper 2008
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Pruyt, E. (author), De Sitter, G. (author)
conference paper 2008
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Pruyt, E. (author)
conference paper 2008
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Deenen, R.E.M. (author), Van Daalen, C.E. (author), Koene, E.G.C. (author)
This paper presents a case study of an analysis of a Corrective Maintenance process to realize performance improvement. The Corrective Maintenance process is supported by SAP, which has indicated the performance realisation problem. System Dynamics is used in a Group Model Building process to structure the problem and to develop a dynamic...
conference paper 2008
document
Slinger, J.H. (author)
At the 2008 System Dynamics Conference in Athens a survey of the understanding and expectations of conference participants regarding model analysis was conducted. Respondents included both those active in research on formal model analysis methods and those only vaguely familiar with the term. Results from the survey are presented and discussed...
conference paper 2009
document
Pruyt, E. (author)
This paper presents a simple experimental System Dynamics model of the underlying value and stock market value of a bank to analyze a loss of trust the a bank. The System Dynamics model was developed on 28 September 2008 –the day the governments of the Benelux countries met in a great hurry to rescue the Fortis bank– in order to gain a better...
conference paper 2009
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Pruyt, E. (author), Slinger, J.H. (author), Van Daalen, C. (author), Yucel, G. (author), Thissen, W.A.H. (author)
This paper deals with System Dynamics education at Delft University of Technology, the Netherlands. It focuses more specifically on the quadruple jump approach towards dealing with real-world dynamic complexity. The paper starts with an overview of the System Dynamics courses, situated within the broader curriculum. Then recent innovations in...
conference paper 2009
document
Pruyt, E. (author)
This paper deals with the use of ‘hot’ real-world cases for both testing and teaching purposes such as in the Introductory System Dynamics course at Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands. The paper starts with a brief overview of the System Dynamics curriculum. Then the problem-oriented teaching and testing approach is explained,...
conference paper 2009
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Pruyt, E. (author)
By the end of December 2008, alarming reports and articles concerning the cholera outbreak in Zimbabwe received plenty of international media coverage. By that time nearly 30000 cases of cholera infections and 1600 cholera deaths had been reported. In the first week of January 2009, a System Dynamics simulation model related to this cholera...
conference paper 2009
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Meyers, W.K. (author), Slinger, J.H. (author), Pruyt, E. (author), Yucel, G. (author), Van Daalen, C. (author)
There is little consensus on the skills set required of a system dynamics practitioner. In this paper we use the teaching approach and learning goals of the system dynamics courses at the Delft University of Technology as a starting point to explore the development of system dynamics modeling skills. System dynamics is embedded in the curriculum...
conference paper 2010
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Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Slinger, J.H. (author)
Coastal communities dependent upon groundwater resources for drinking water and irrigation are vulnerable to salinization of the groundwater reserve. The increasing uncertainty associated with changing climatic conditions, population and economic development, and technological advances in agriculture, water treatment, and water purification,...
conference paper 2011
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Pruyt, E. (author), Segers, J. (author), Oruc, S. (author)
In this ever more complex, interconnected, and uncertain world, leadership is needed more than ever. But the literature and most leaders largely ignore dynamic complexity and deep uncertainty: only futures characterized by ever faster change, ever more (required) flexibility, and ever more scarcity (especially in terms of highly qualified human...
conference paper 2011
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Pruyt, E. (author), Kwakkel, J. (author), Yucel, G. (author), Hamarat, C. (author)
This paper illustrates the use of Exploratory System Dynamics Modeling and Analysis – a multi-method combining System Dynamics and Exploratory Modeling and Analysis to explore and analyze uncertain dynamic issues and test deep policy robustness. This paper gives an overview of the current state of this multi-method by means of an illustration....
conference paper 2011
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Pruyt, E. (author), Logtens, T. (author), Gijsbers, G. (author)
Plausible dynamics of a major demographic shift –(societal) aging– is studied in this paper, both from a global perspective and from a national perspective. Several economic, political and social implications of aging and aging-related demographic shifts are explored using System Dynamics models as scenario generators for Exploratory System...
conference paper 2011
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Steverink, B. (author), Van Daalen, C. (author)
In July 2008 the Dutch government introduced a tax on airline tickets in order to internalize the negative externalities associated with air travel. As a result of the increased ticket price in The Netherlands a substantial number of passengers decided to depart from airports outside of The Netherlands. However, after the tax was abolished one...
conference paper 2011
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Eker, S. (author), Van Daalen, C. (author)
The natural gas production in the Netherlands is estimated to decline significantly in the coming 25 years. This situation has led producers to consider alternatives such as unconventional gas resources which are successfully utilized in the US and debated all over the world. However, despite the substantial initial resource estimates,...
conference paper 2012
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Pruyt, E. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)
Integrated risk-capability analysis methodologies for dealing with increasing degrees of complexity and deep uncertainty are urgently needed in an ever more complex and uncertain world. Although scenario approaches, risk assessment methods, and capability analysis methods are used, few organizations and nations use truly integrated risk...
conference paper 2012
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Pruyt, E. (author), Coumou, J. (author)
Lyme disease due to infection with Lyme borreliosis poses an uncertain dynamic threat to the Dutch and their public health system. This risk was used to develop and illustrate two variants of a National Risk Assessment approaches for slumbering/latent risks. This paper explains and illustrates the System Dynamics-based variant using the societal...
conference paper 2012
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