Stefanie Horian
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1
Beyond one-size-fits-all
Data-driven tenants personas for targeted intervention strategies in social housing renovation
The need to decarbonize the built environment has increased policy and research attention on large-scale energy-efficient renovations (EER) in the residential sector, particularly social housing. While technical pathways for such renovations are increasingly well-defined, successful implementation depends on an often underestimated factor: the human dimension. In practice, success depends not only on technical solutions but also on tenant consent and participation. In the Netherlands, social housing associations (HAs) are required to obtain consent from at least 70% of affected tenants before proceeding with impactful EER projects. Yet, current practice often relies on uniform consent and communication strategies, implicitly treating tenants as homogeneous despite wide variation in behavioural determinants, perceptions, and personal characteristics. Drawing on behavioural insights and a tailored survey among Dutch social housing tenants, this study develops a data-driven persona framework using Latent Class Analysis (LCA). The analysis identifies five benefit-based classes and seven barrier-based classes that capture systematic heterogeneity in comfort expectations, trust, perceptions of financial risk, transaction costs, and decision preferences. These probabilistic classes are translated into actionable personas that reflect tenants' differential receptiveness to information and engagement modes, thereby enabling practitioners and policymakers to better anticipate where non-agreement risks may emerge and to design targeted intervention strategies. The studies' main contribution lies in operationalizing behavioural heterogeneity as an implementation tool for consent-based governance. It provides a scalable method for designing differentiated, targeted intervention strategies, anticipating consent dynamics, and supporting more just and effective implementation of EER projects in social housing.
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The need to decarbonize the built environment has increased policy and research attention on large-scale energy-efficient renovations (EER) in the residential sector, particularly social housing. While technical pathways for such renovations are increasingly well-defined, successful implementation depends on an often underestimated factor: the human dimension. In practice, success depends not only on technical solutions but also on tenant consent and participation. In the Netherlands, social housing associations (HAs) are required to obtain consent from at least 70% of affected tenants before proceeding with impactful EER projects. Yet, current practice often relies on uniform consent and communication strategies, implicitly treating tenants as homogeneous despite wide variation in behavioural determinants, perceptions, and personal characteristics. Drawing on behavioural insights and a tailored survey among Dutch social housing tenants, this study develops a data-driven persona framework using Latent Class Analysis (LCA). The analysis identifies five benefit-based classes and seven barrier-based classes that capture systematic heterogeneity in comfort expectations, trust, perceptions of financial risk, transaction costs, and decision preferences. These probabilistic classes are translated into actionable personas that reflect tenants' differential receptiveness to information and engagement modes, thereby enabling practitioners and policymakers to better anticipate where non-agreement risks may emerge and to design targeted intervention strategies. The studies' main contribution lies in operationalizing behavioural heterogeneity as an implementation tool for consent-based governance. It provides a scalable method for designing differentiated, targeted intervention strategies, anticipating consent dynamics, and supporting more just and effective implementation of EER projects in social housing.
In response to the European Green Deal's climate neutrality objectives, the Netherlands introduced the National Climate Agreement ("Klimaatakkoord"), which sets ambitious long term targets for reducing national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with the building sector as a critical focus. For Dutch Social Housing, which accounts for a third of the residential housing sector in the Netherlands, stricter mandates apply in the short term: all social housing units with suboptimal EFG energy labels must be upgraded to higher standards by 2028. Despite these ambitious targets, the renovation practices of Dutch Housing Associations (HAs) are stagnating, raising doubts as to whether this goal can be achieved. Dutch HAs act in a complex environment, and their decision-making process is influenced by institutional arrangements, stakeholder interactions, and market conditions, which create uncertainties and barriers in determining effective pathways for energy-efficient renovation (EER). Understanding these barriers is crucial to formulating effective strategies, such as targeted incentives or behavioural nudges, to enhance EER adoption. This article presents a conceptual framework for understanding and analysing barriers of Dutch HAs to EER adoption. It includes a literature review on the institutional context of Dutch HAs, outlines the typical EER decision-making process, and identifies barriers documented in existing research and expert interviews. The results from the interviews with four Dutch HA show practical applicability and insights into barriers. Mayor barriers lie in institutional compliance and interaction with tenants. The conceptual framework contributes to a deeper understanding of decision-making barriers of EER projects and offers insights to guide policy interventions and future research on promoting EER in the social housing sector.
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In response to the European Green Deal's climate neutrality objectives, the Netherlands introduced the National Climate Agreement ("Klimaatakkoord"), which sets ambitious long term targets for reducing national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with the building sector as a critical focus. For Dutch Social Housing, which accounts for a third of the residential housing sector in the Netherlands, stricter mandates apply in the short term: all social housing units with suboptimal EFG energy labels must be upgraded to higher standards by 2028. Despite these ambitious targets, the renovation practices of Dutch Housing Associations (HAs) are stagnating, raising doubts as to whether this goal can be achieved. Dutch HAs act in a complex environment, and their decision-making process is influenced by institutional arrangements, stakeholder interactions, and market conditions, which create uncertainties and barriers in determining effective pathways for energy-efficient renovation (EER). Understanding these barriers is crucial to formulating effective strategies, such as targeted incentives or behavioural nudges, to enhance EER adoption. This article presents a conceptual framework for understanding and analysing barriers of Dutch HAs to EER adoption. It includes a literature review on the institutional context of Dutch HAs, outlines the typical EER decision-making process, and identifies barriers documented in existing research and expert interviews. The results from the interviews with four Dutch HA show practical applicability and insights into barriers. Mayor barriers lie in institutional compliance and interaction with tenants. The conceptual framework contributes to a deeper understanding of decision-making barriers of EER projects and offers insights to guide policy interventions and future research on promoting EER in the social housing sector.
This chapter addresses Social Innovation. It describes conditions, methods, and procedures to optimize engagement and strengthen people's and the community’s position in affordable energy renovations in buildings and on the district level. We focus on the lower- and middle-income occupants being tenants of not-for-profit or public housing associations and owner / occupiers in apartment buildings. [...]
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This chapter addresses Social Innovation. It describes conditions, methods, and procedures to optimize engagement and strengthen people's and the community’s position in affordable energy renovations in buildings and on the district level. We focus on the lower- and middle-income occupants being tenants of not-for-profit or public housing associations and owner / occupiers in apartment buildings. [...]
Comparative Study of Sustainable Heating Decision-Making
Insights from the Residential and Industrial Sectors
To accelerate the transition in the heating sector, barriers and drivers need to be addressed. The analysis of this paper relies on an online survey in the residential sector and investigates influencing factors and perceptions of heating options in eleven EU member states. Further, it employs a case study in the industrial sector. The results reveal that in the residential sector ratings, as well as decisions to adopt heat pumps and district heating, are primarily influenced by technical or financial constraints, followed by self-centered aspects, trust, attitudes and personal interests. Conversely, the industrial sector is predominantly driven by economic considerations, regulations, and corporate strategies.
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To accelerate the transition in the heating sector, barriers and drivers need to be addressed. The analysis of this paper relies on an online survey in the residential sector and investigates influencing factors and perceptions of heating options in eleven EU member states. Further, it employs a case study in the industrial sector. The results reveal that in the residential sector ratings, as well as decisions to adopt heat pumps and district heating, are primarily influenced by technical or financial constraints, followed by self-centered aspects, trust, attitudes and personal interests. Conversely, the industrial sector is predominantly driven by economic considerations, regulations, and corporate strategies.
Optimising the involvement of tenants in the decision-making process for energy efficiency renovation
Revealing behavioural barriers of tenants
Energy efficiency renovation (EER) of the existing residential housing stock is crucial to achieving further decarbonization to be climate neutral by 2050. This transition is particularly challenging for affordable rental housing providers as they have to make intensive investment decisions while balancing rental affordability for their low- and middle income tenants. The affordable housing market is designed to provide affordable and accessible accommodation for individuals or families who may have difficulties finding suitable housing in the private rental market due to low income, disabilities, senior age or other vulnerable characteristics. Although the affordable rental housing providers design, invest, coordinate and perform energy-efficiency measures to improve the energy label of the existing housing stock, in many cases they need the approval of the tenants to finally execute the EER. Depending on the national governance, arrangements and regulations, as well as the event of a well-structured arrangement, tenants may exert a degree of influence on the decision-making process. We propose that it is necessary to understand the attitudes, strategies and perceptions of people occupying affordable housing, to be able to include them efficiently in the whole EER-decision-making process. This study aims to compile all behavioural factors analysed in literature and cluster them to reveal behavioural barriers and involvement preferences. We will offer a holistic profile of influencing factors unravelling tenants behavioural characteristics and lay a solid foundation for the design of potential policy and behavioural interventions to accelerate the EER in the affordable housing sector.
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Energy efficiency renovation (EER) of the existing residential housing stock is crucial to achieving further decarbonization to be climate neutral by 2050. This transition is particularly challenging for affordable rental housing providers as they have to make intensive investment decisions while balancing rental affordability for their low- and middle income tenants. The affordable housing market is designed to provide affordable and accessible accommodation for individuals or families who may have difficulties finding suitable housing in the private rental market due to low income, disabilities, senior age or other vulnerable characteristics. Although the affordable rental housing providers design, invest, coordinate and perform energy-efficiency measures to improve the energy label of the existing housing stock, in many cases they need the approval of the tenants to finally execute the EER. Depending on the national governance, arrangements and regulations, as well as the event of a well-structured arrangement, tenants may exert a degree of influence on the decision-making process. We propose that it is necessary to understand the attitudes, strategies and perceptions of people occupying affordable housing, to be able to include them efficiently in the whole EER-decision-making process. This study aims to compile all behavioural factors analysed in literature and cluster them to reveal behavioural barriers and involvement preferences. We will offer a holistic profile of influencing factors unravelling tenants behavioural characteristics and lay a solid foundation for the design of potential policy and behavioural interventions to accelerate the EER in the affordable housing sector.