Microgrids (MGs) are sustainable solutions for rural zone electrification that use local renewable resources. However, only careful planning at the start of an MG project can ensure its future optimal operation. In this paper, a novel methodology for MG planning by using the uncertainty characterization of renewable resources and demand is presented. Additionally, a model of electricity consumption is proposed and applied in an isolated rural community. In such communities, consumption patterns typically need to be derived as model inputs because consumption measurements are not available for the planning stage. To obtain these inputs, clustering algorithms based on self-organizing maps (SOMs) and fuzzy c-means are used to classify the families of the community given sociodemographic information obtained via surveys. Subsequently, Markov chains (MCs) are employed to generate consumption patterns based on consumption measurements in some dwellings and surveys applied to the community. The nonlinearities and uncertainties associated with renewable resources and consumption are modeled by using prediction interval (PI) models. These PI models provide the required consumption and generation scenarios for deriving the optimal sizing and topological information to address the MG planning problem. The results of the robust planning approach based on scenarios are useful at the feasibility and design phases of an MG project. The proposed methodology is successfully applied to MG planning for a rural Mapuche community, where a conservative criterion was considered to minimize the investment risk. This criterion corresponds to the worst-case scenario in which the demand increases by 19.9% compared to that of the baseline scenario and a lower energy cost is obtained. However, the net present cost and operational costs increase by 14% and 11.75% compared to those of the baseline scenario, respectively.@en

This paper presents a two-level hierarchical energy management system (EMS) for microgrid operation that is based on a robust model predictive control (MPC) strategy. This EMS focuses on minimizing the cost of the energy drawn from the main grid and increasing self-consumption of local renewable energy resources, and brings benefits to the users of the microgrid as well as the distribution network operator (DNO). The higher level of the EMS comprises a robust MPC controller which optimizes energy usage and defines a power reference that is tracked by the lower-level real-time controller. The proposed EMS addresses the uncertainty of the predictions of the generation and end-user consumption profiles with the use of the robust MPC controller, which considers the optimization over a control policy where the uncertainty of the power predictions can be compensated either by the battery or main grid power consumption. Simulation results using data from a real urban community showed that when compared with an equivalent (non-robust) deterministic EMS (i.e., an EMS based on the same MPC formulation, but without the uncertainty handling), the proposed EMS based on robust MPC achieved reduced energy costs and obtained a more uniform grid power consumption, safer battery operation, and reduced peak loads.@en

This study presents a novel load estimation method for isolated communities that do not receive energy or only receive it for a limited time each day. These profiles have been used to determine the installed capacity of generating units for microgrid electrification projects. The social characteristics and lifestyles of isolated communities differ from those in urban areas; therefore, the load profiles of microgrids are sensitive to minor variations in generation and/or consumption. The proposed methodology for obtaining the residential profiles is based on clustering algorithms such as k-means, a self-organizing map (SOM) or others. In this work, SOM clustering is considered because it allows a better interpretation of results that can be contrasted with social aspects. The proposed methodology includes the following components. First, the inputs are processed based on surveys of residents that live in each socio-economic level of housing and the community. Second, family types are clustered using an SOM, from which relevant information is derived that distinguishes one family from another. Third, the load profiles of each cluster are selected from a database. Additionally, social aspects and relevant energy supply information from communities with similar characteristics are used to generate the required database. The SOM for the clustering of families of the community with available energy measurements is used as an initial guess for the clustering of the families in the community with unknown energy measurements. The methodology is applied and tested in the community of El Romeral, Chile, where a microgrid will be installed. The SOM technique compares favorably with a benchmark method that uses the average load profile of a community; furthermore, the SOM clustering algorithm for the methodology is favorably compared with the k-means algorithm because the results obtained by SOM are consistent with the social aspects.@en

Prediction interval modelling has been proposed in the literature to characterize uncertain phenomena and provide useful information from a decision-making point of view. In most of the reported studies, assumptions about the data distribution are made and/or the models are trained at one step ahead, which can decrease the quality of the interval in terms of the information about the uncertainty modelled for a higher prediction horizon. In this paper, a new prediction interval modelling methodology based on fuzzy numbers is proposed to solve the abovementioned drawbacks. Fuzzy and neural network prediction interval models are developed based on this proposed methodology by minimizing a novel criterion that includes the coverage probability and normalized average width. The fuzzy number concept is considered because the affine combination of fuzzy numbers generates, by definition, prediction intervals that can handle uncertainty without requiring assumptions about the data distribution. The developed models are compared with a covariance-based prediction interval method, and high-quality intervals are obtained, as determined by the narrower interval width of the proposed method. Additionally, the proposed prediction intervals are tested by forecasting up to two days ahead of the load of the Huatacondo microgrid in the north of Chile and the consumption of the residential dwellings in the town of Loughborough, UK. The results show that the proposed models are suitable alternatives to electrical consumption forecasting because they obtain the minimum interval widths that characterize the uncertainty of this type of stochastic process. Furthermore, the information provided by the obtained prediction interval could be used to develop robust energy management systems that, for example, consider the worst-case scenario.@en