In the coming decades, the shipping sector is facing various challenges, requiring adaptations for achieving sustainable shipping, against climate change consequences, for facilitating alternative activities at sea, and for transitioning towards more autonomous shipping. Several
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In the coming decades, the shipping sector is facing various challenges, requiring adaptations for achieving sustainable shipping, against climate change consequences, for facilitating alternative activities at sea, and for transitioning towards more autonomous shipping. Several incidents related to these challenges force us to take a good look at how the system can keep performing its function conditional to these changes. Scientific studies hereby regard the collective of (interacting) shipping activities as a system. Outcomes of data analyses and models are intended to support decision makers in designing effective improvement measures. However, the usefulness of the outcomes to the decision makers can be better, amongst others due to poor communication between science and decision makers, due to analysis objectives not being achieved, and due to unrealistic data requirements.
At the foundation of the analysis is often a disciplinary approach, or \textit{way of thinking}, which determines which solution space is considered, and which input sources are accepted. Looking from multiple \emph{perspectives} can broaden this, and thereby improve the formulation of analysis objectives and the identification of relevant input data. Besides determining which perspectives are relevant for a specific problem, the remaining challenge is related to how these alternative perspectives can be merged into an integrated whole. The aim of this thesis is to design a framework for an early integration of multiple perspectives in the analysis of shipping systems to improve their usefulness in the decision-making process. The first ambition for the framework is to provide a formulation of analysis objectives and data requirements in view of multiple perspectives, and the second ambition is to develop a data-structure concept to merge the perspectives.
For the first ambition, a literature study into systems with similar characteristics as a shipping system revealed that the analyses of these systems are mostly performed from one or several of the perspectives regarding its objectives, that we refer to as: (1) \textbf{scales}, addressing the ``where'' and ``when'' of system performance, uncovering spatial patterns and temporal variations, (2) \textbf{conditions}, considering the connection between system performance and its underlying physical processes and environment, (3) \textbf{behaviour}, considering the influence of individual or collective behaviour on the system performance and (4) \textbf{dependencies}, identifying causal relationships and sensitivities within the system. For each of the distinguished perspectives, based on the data sources and analysis types of the relevant studies, specifications could be formulated about the highest detail level on one hand, and the information required to aggregate to higher levels, up to the system level, on the other.
The second ambition, regarding a concept for merging these multi-perspective requirements, was obtained by introducing a new data structure referred to as an \emph{event table}. In this data structure, inspired by the existing concepts of moving features and event logs, each row represents a distinct event, and each column indicates a characteristic of the event. A single event is defined by the highest-detail-level specifications for each perspective. Besides some columns that form the unique event definition, the \emph{attributes} provide additional information about each event. Filtering and aggregation operations on the event table allow zooming in and zooming out, offering flexibility to investigate global patterns in detail, or to assess the impact of detail level processes, thereby fulfilling the second ambition for the framework.
The framework outlines the relationship between the availability of input materials and the ambition of the analysis goals. Hence, developments in the field of data science, analysis techniques, and computational facilities increase the scope, detail level, and modeling complexity captured in the analysis goals. By parallelising and scaling-up computations, the scope and detail level of analyses can be increased. By joining multiple spatially and temporally varying data sources, environmental influences can be determined. By applying dimension-reduction and outlier detection techniques, many characteristics of vessel behaviour can be assessed to determine anomalous behaviour. By labelling known behaviour, cause and effect can be coupled to improve the predictive capabilities. Applying these developments to the monitoring activities regarding nautical safety demonstrated how these developments can extend the ambition level of the analysis.
The framework was applied to two shipping-related cases. The first case considered nautical safety risks at the North Sea imposed by the potential event that vessels get adrift while being surrounded by offshore infrastructure, like wind parks. Based on the formulated multi-perspective objectives, the event table was constructed, whereby each event was defined by combination of a vessel of particular type and size (indicated by a category), to be present at a particular location at sea (indicated by a cell, part of a grid), under particular environmental conditions (a combination of wind direction, wind speed, wave height-period combination, wave direction, and current profile). For each event, the probability of occurrence could be determined, and conditional to this, using a drift path prediction tool, the probability that the vessel would drift into a wind park after $n$ hours in case of technical problems. Filtering and aggregation operations on the table revealed how a single analysis can support location specific design of barriers between wind parks and shipping lanes, as well as evaluation of strategies for emergency response vessels.
The second case considered shipping emissions on Dutch inland waterways. Based on the framework, analysis objectives were formulated for three perspectives; scales, conditions and behaviour. This resulted in an event table whereby each event corresponded with a single vessel, sailing a single waterway section on the Dutch fairway network. For each event, based on the sailed trajectory, the vessel properties, and the environmental characteristics, the energy use as well as the associated emissions could be estimated. The entire collection of events in the table represented all vessels travelling on the Dutch inland waterway network over the course of four months. Filtering and aggregation operations on the table revealed how emissions are impacted by river currents, and that a large share of the emissions is caused by waiting, idling, and manoeuvring vessels.
Both cases demonstrated how application of the framework can lead to an improved understanding of how the shipping system performs and responds to varying conditions and external changes. More importantly, they showed that the event table concept was capable of supporting formulation of promising improvement measures. This offers policy makers better support when making decisions. Owing to the versatility of the event-table concept, it is possible to anticipate on unseen or unforeseen perspectives in the future.