Coordination between transmission system operators (TSOs) and distribution system operators (DSOs) can support TSOs in using the distribution system (DS) flexibility while ensuring feasible operation. Flexibility areas (FAs) can support TSO-DSO coordination, aggregating the total feasible flexibility within the DS. However, existing real-time estimation approaches do not consider the limited measurements within DS. This paper proposes a Bayesian neural network (BNN) to estimate the operating conditions that bound the operational flexibility, including epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties. These uncertainties stem from the limited real-time measurements in DSs and the measurement noise. TSOs can select a threshold that confirms a probability of safety, considering uncertainty margins. The paper also provides FA estimation in DS topologies with (Formula presented.) points of common coupling (PCC) with the transmission system. Case studies in the CIGRE and Oberrhein networks compare the proposed BNNs to baseline statistic-based approaches for forecast and measurement uncertainty in FAs. The case studies show the proposed FA estimation under various safety margins and systems with 2-PCC. Case studies also assess various measurement noise levels and evaluate model performance for different DS topologies.

Power system operators need new, efficient operational tools to use the flexibility of distributed resources and deal with the challenges of highly uncertain and variable power systems. Transmission system operators can consider the available flexibility in distribution systems (DSs) without breaching the DS constraints through flexibility areas. However, there is an absence of open-source packages for flexibility area estimation. This paper introduces TensorConvolutionPlus, a user-friendly Python-based package for flexibility area estimation. The main features of TensorConvolutionPlus include estimating flexibility areas using the TensorConvolution+ algorithm, the power flow-based algorithm, an exhaustive PF-based algorithm, and an optimal power flow-based algorithm. Additional features include adapting flexibility area estimations from different operating conditions and including flexibility service providers offering discrete setpoints of flexibility. The TensorConvolutionPlus package facilitates a broader adaptation of flexibility estimation algorithms by system operators and power system researchers.

Coordination between power system operators can improve the power system stability and effectively deploy resources in distribution systems (DS). The research work of this paper provides a coordination method to mitigate the impact of dynamic events on transmission systems (TS). The proposed method uses a machine learning (ML)-based model to estimate the collective dynamic response of DS under varying TS dynamic properties, DS operating conditions, and share of inverter base resources (IBRs). In addition, the ML-based model enables TS operators (TSOs) to provide feedback to DS operators (DSOs) for controlling the IBRs’ active power output to prevent post-fault instabilities. The proposed TSO-DSO coordination method includes a risk-based active power setpoint optimizer for instability prevention. The proposed method uses existing measurement and IBR control platforms available in DS and estimates the post-fault DS dynamic response considering IBR active power control actions. Case studies on synthetic models of TS and DS covering the Zeeland province in The Netherlands illustrate the application of the proposed coordination and the instability risk mitigation when optimizing IBR setpoints.

Power system operators require advanced applications in the control centers to tackle increasingly variable power transfers effectively. One urgently needed application concerns estimating the feasible available aggregated flexibility from a power system network, which can be effectively deployed to mitigate issues in interconnected networks. This paper proposes the TensorConvolution+ algorithm to address the above application. Unlike related literature approaches, TensorConvolution+ estimates the density of feasible flexibility combinations to reach a new operating point within the p-q flexibility area. This density can improve the decision-making of system operators for efficient and safe flexibility deployment. The proposed algorithm applies to radial and meshed networks, is adaptable to new operational conditions, and can consider scenarios with disconnected flexibility areas. Using convolutions and tensors, the algorithm efficiently aggregates the combinations of flexibility providers' adjustable power output that can occur for each flexibility area set point. Simulations on the meshed Oberrhein and radial CIGRE test networks illustrate the effectiveness of TensorConvolution+ for flexibility estimation with high numerical confidence and a minor computing effort. Additional simulations highlight how system operators can interpret the estimated density of feasible flexibility combinations for decision-making purposes, the algorithm's capability to estimate disconnected flexibility areas, and adapt to new operating conditions.