Suppose one is interested in identifying the weakest link of the electrical system at 3 simultaneous faults caused by an extreme weather event. Current techniques cannot identify this; however, knowing such information can help reinforce the system at the weakest link to increase system security. Current techniques typically apply a forward process to the security assessment: assign a contingency list, study its impact, analyse the list to obtain a shortlist, and improve the system. However, this process does not scale well to the number of contingencies, specifically, when one is interested in the combination of k faults, as the process needs to run once per combination. This paper proposes a new backwards process using quantum effects from quantum annealing (QA). Our proposal formulates a quadratic optimisation to find the worst-case N-k contingency using disjunctive power transfer distribution factors. Then, we use a quantum annealer and propose a search algorithm to solve the problem, using the distribution of solutions to obtain the shortlist of contingencies. We propose a meta-heuristic to make the approach feasible on quantum computers with limited qubits. The case studies focus on the IEEE 118-bus system, showing a 200 x speed-up for 50 faults compared to exhaustive search. The case study extrapolates to the 2383wp system, showing the approach scales well to larger power systems; however, the current quantum hardware limits the number of single faults to consider to around 50. Case studies demonstrate weak lines can be identified for reinforcement by analysing the QA solution distribution, potentially improving system security for multiple N-k faults.

Coordination between transmission system operators (TSOs) and distribution system operators (DSOs) can support TSOs in using the distribution system (DS) flexibility while ensuring feasible operation. Flexibility areas (FAs) can support TSO-DSO coordination, aggregating the total feasible flexibility within the DS. However, existing real-time estimation approaches do not consider the limited measurements within DS. This paper proposes a Bayesian neural network (BNN) to estimate the operating conditions that bound the operational flexibility, including epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties. These uncertainties stem from the limited real-time measurements in DSs and the measurement noise. TSOs can select a threshold that confirms a probability of safety, considering uncertainty margins. The paper also provides FA estimation in DS topologies with (Formula presented.) points of common coupling (PCC) with the transmission system. Case studies in the CIGRE and Oberrhein networks compare the proposed BNNs to baseline statistic-based approaches for forecast and measurement uncertainty in FAs. The case studies show the proposed FA estimation under various safety margins and systems with 2-PCC. Case studies also assess various measurement noise levels and evaluate model performance for different DS topologies.

The electrification and ongoing energy transition lead to systematic changes in electricity loading and variability in power systems. Distribution systems were designed for regular operating patterns, assuming constant low loading. Now, operators need to assess whether their assets can withstand more, as well as time-varying loading. Operating the system at or near its ampacity potentially accelerates thermal ageing, so the question arises: ‘how much can one operate at the limits while keeping maintenance and failures low?’ This paper introduces a novel approach that derives a time-varying Weibull approximation of failure rates using thermal models and provides a shortcut method to quantify maintenance implications under time-varying loading for heterogeneous MV cable populations. The case studies investigate a dataset from Denmark and the Oberrhein Medium Voltage (MV) system in Germany, studying ageing assets and the interplay with loading, and replacement paradigms of two different cable insulation types. The studies demonstrate that a small fraction of 25% of old, low-quality cables leads to 82% of failures, and 1.4% of the time of highest loading can cause 46% of cable ageing. The case studies also demonstrate that maintenance needs may be between 10-300 times higher under future loading conditions associated with the energy transition, specifically in networks that have older PILC cables. This paper provides a new tool for operators to plan maintenance under more realistic, future operating conditions.

The increasing share of uncertain renewable energy sources (RES) in power systems necessitates new efficient approaches for the two-stage stochastic multi-period AC optimal power flow (St-MP-OPF) optimization. The computational complexity of St-MP-OPF, particularly with AC constraints, grows exponentially with the number of uncertainty scenarios and the time horizon. This complexity poses significant challenges for large-scale transmission systems that require numerous scenarios to capture RES stochasticities. This paper introduces a scenario-based decomposition of the St-MP-OPF based on the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM). Additionally, this paper proposes a machine learning-accelerated ADMM approach (ADMM-ML), facilitating rapid and parallel computations of numerous scenarios with extended time horizons. Within this approach, a recurrent neural network approximates the ADMM sub-problem optimization and predicts wait-and-see decisions for uncertainty scenarios, while a master optimization determines here-and-now decisions. Additionally, we develop a hybrid approach that uses ML predictions to warm-start the ADMM algorithm, combining the computational efficiency of ML with the feasibility and optimality guarantees of optimization methods. The numerical results on the 118-bus and 1354-bus system show that the proposed ADMM-ML approach solves the St-MP-OPF with 3-4 orders of magnitude speed-ups, while the hybrid approach provides a balance between speed-ups and optimality.

The growing share of renewable energy in shortterm European electricity markets has significantly increased congestion management costs and demands. Therefore, current market design is not optional to keep congestion costs low. A proper market would incentivize the integration of flexibilities to boost competition and lower costs, while mitigating risks of manipulation. However, assessing behavioral impacts is challenging due to increasingly interconnected market structures. Studies modeling more than two markets often overlook the strategic opportunities that emerge from these interactions, focusing instead on large-scale dynamics. To capture the detailed impact of bidding strategies, we use reinforcement learning to explore multi-market strategies. By progressively training a Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) agent as a market participant - from replicating established behaviors to mastering intricate multimarket interactions - we employ Domain-Informed Curriculum Learning (DomCL), a structured approach that systematically guides learning through staged complexity. We validate our approach against established two-market studies, then evaluate it in two progressively complex four-market case studies spanning a 6-bus network, including historical data. Results show that our DRL-based method improves performance while uncovering challenges that arise as strategic opportunities expand, offering a structured approach for multi-market design analysis.

Transmission network topology control offers cheap flexibility to system operators for mitigating grid congestion. However, finding the optimal sequence of topology actions remains a challenge due to the large number of possible actions. Although reinforcement learning (RL) approaches have attracted interest for long-term planning in large combinatorial action spaces, they encounter challenges such as training stability, sample efficiency, and unforeseen consequences of RL actions. Addressing these challenges, this paper proposes a hybrid curriculum-trained RL and Monte Carlo tree search (MCTS) approach to determine sequential topological actions for mitigating grid congestion. The curriculum-based approach stabilizes training by first pre-training a policy network through supervised imitation learning, followed by RL training. The policy network guides the MCTS to simulate promising future trajectories, mitigating unforeseen consequences and identifying long-term strategies to improve grid security. Moreover, the MCTS-verified actions are used for RL training, enhancing sample efficiency and training time. A distance factor is added to the MCTS, which improves convergence by prioritizing actions closer to congestion. Numerical results on the IEEE 118-bus system show that the proposed hybrid approach improves the timesteps survived by 30% compared to a standard RL approach, and by 5% compared to a brute-force baseline. Additionally, the inclusion of the distance factor increases the timesteps survived by 15%. These results highlight the potential of the proposed method for real-world applications of using sequential topological actions to effectively relieve grid congestion.

Increasing renewable energy supply and distributed generating sources in the power grid lead to lower inertia levels. Lower inertia combined with higher uncertainty in operation can cause drastic frequency fluctuations when a disturbance occurs. System operators must know whether the transmission system is secure against a disturbance. Real-time models attempt to predict the frequency in near-real time however require pretraining on a large variety of possible disturbances. Training models in real-time would not require pre-training as they are directly trained on the occurring disturbance. However, training in real-time is not feasible until now as fast-occurring system dynamics require shorter prediction (and training) times for security and operation which standard machine learning models are not capable of. For the first time, this work proposes a fast training strategy that learns Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (NODE) in near real-time directly on the occurring disturbance, simultaneously addressing the inaccuracy issue of model-based dynamic studies. NODE learns the dynamics or derivatives of an ODE system that standard ODE solvers can solve. NODE provides a continuous function for predicting future dynamics in a decentralized way, hence faster frequency stability assessment for longer time spans. We propose a collocation-based sampling using the collocation gradients. Case studies on the IEEE 39-bus system show the approach is feasible for near real-time operation, accurately predicts future system states, and enables operators to apply predesigned corrective control actions, potentially making the system secure for future disturbances.

Battery energy storage systems offer control over energy use and enable energy arbitrage (EA) helping to lower energy costs. However, battery owners currently fail to optimally exploit these systems for EA as the battery lifetime decreases, and many EA approaches incorrectly assume constant battery capacity. Battery performance declines over time resulting in reduced capacity that limits the economic benefits. Therefore, considering battery degradation is key to balancing economic profit and lifetime. In response, this work applies reinforcement learning to control a battery providing residential EA services and proposes a semi-supervised learning model to consider degradation. Case studies investigate three scenarios: 1) the approach is trained on a battery with an unrealistic constant maximum capacity to serve as a baseline, 2) the actions from the first scenario are applied to a real-world environment with a battery experiencing capacity decay to acknowledge the effect of neglecting degradation and 3) the approach considers a battery with a real decreasing capacity. Results show not considering degradation when operating a battery (scenario 2), leads to profits 13% lower than the ones obtained in the ideal case (scenario 1). If degradation is considered (scenario 3), the profits are only 4% lower than the profits obtained in the ideal case (scenario 1) and the battery's lifetime is extended by 20% compared to the lifetime achieved when not considering degradation (scenario 2).

Coordination between power system operators can improve the power system stability and effectively deploy resources in distribution systems (DS). The research work of this paper provides a coordination method to mitigate the impact of dynamic events on transmission systems (TS). The proposed method uses a machine learning (ML)-based model to estimate the collective dynamic response of DS under varying TS dynamic properties, DS operating conditions, and share of inverter base resources (IBRs). In addition, the ML-based model enables TS operators (TSOs) to provide feedback to DS operators (DSOs) for controlling the IBRs’ active power output to prevent post-fault instabilities. The proposed TSO-DSO coordination method includes a risk-based active power setpoint optimizer for instability prevention. The proposed method uses existing measurement and IBR control platforms available in DS and estimates the post-fault DS dynamic response considering IBR active power control actions. Case studies on synthetic models of TS and DS covering the Zeeland province in The Netherlands illustrate the application of the proposed coordination and the instability risk mitigation when optimizing IBR setpoints.

Ground fault detection in inverter-based microgrid (IBM) systems is challenging, particularly in a real-time setting, as the fault current deviates slightly from the nominal value. This difficulty is reinforced when there are partially decoupled disturbances and modeling uncertainties. The conventional solution of installing more relays to obtain additional measurements is costly and also increases the complexity of the system. In this brief, we propose a data-assisted diagnosis scheme based on an optimization-based fault detection filter with the output current as the only measurement. Modeling the microgrid dynamics and the diagnosis filter, we formulate the filter design as a quadratic programming (QP) problem that accounts for decoupling partial disturbances, robustness to nondecoupled disturbances and modeling uncertainties by training with data, and ensuring fault sensitivity simultaneously. To ease the computational effort, we also provide an approximate but analytical solution to this QP. Additionally, we use classical statistical results to provide a thresholding mechanism that enjoys probabilistic false-alarm guarantees. Finally, we implement the IBM system with Simulink and real-time digital simulator (RTDS) to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method through simulations.

Time domain simulation (TDS) is an important tool for assessing power system security under various disturbances. However, its computational cost limits the number of disturbances that can be assessed. The need for fast assessment of numerous disturbances has increased with the rapid integration of renewable energy sources. Machine learning (ML) methods have been explored to accelerate power system TDS, but these methods are studied in interpolation scenarios, where they predict outputs for inputs within the training data distribution. This work uses a state-of-the-art ML model to explore the extrapolation behavior of ML models for TDS. First, we highlight the importance of ML models’ extrapolation capacity for fast assessment of numerous diverse disturbances. Next, we demonstrate that extrapolation for discrete disturbances is more challenging than for continuous disturbances. Subsequently, we investigate how transfer learning (TL) may be used to improve the performance of ML models in TDS extrapolation scenarios. Finally, we outline the limitations of TL for power system TDS and suggest alternative approaches for developing ML models with better extrapolation performance in TDS applications.

Power system operators need new, efficient operational tools to use the flexibility of distributed resources and deal with the challenges of highly uncertain and variable power systems. Transmission system operators can consider the available flexibility in distribution systems (DSs) without breaching the DS constraints through flexibility areas. However, there is an absence of open-source packages for flexibility area estimation. This paper introduces TensorConvolutionPlus, a user-friendly Python-based package for flexibility area estimation. The main features of TensorConvolutionPlus include estimating flexibility areas using the TensorConvolution+ algorithm, the power flow-based algorithm, an exhaustive PF-based algorithm, and an optimal power flow-based algorithm. Additional features include adapting flexibility area estimations from different operating conditions and including flexibility service providers offering discrete setpoints of flexibility. The TensorConvolutionPlus package facilitates a broader adaptation of flexibility estimation algorithms by system operators and power system researchers.

The increase in variable renewable energy sources has brought about significant changes in power system dynamics, mainly due to the widespread adoption of power electronics and nonlinear controllers. The resulting complex system dynamics and the unpredictable nature of disturbances pose substantial challenges for real-time dynamic security assessment (DSA). Machine learning (ML) methods offer advantages in terms of computational speed compared to numerical methods and simulators. Offline-trained ML models, however, are limited by their training domain; e.g., they cannot easily consider various grid topologies and data changes. Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (NODEs) leverage the integration of neural networks and ODE solvers to enable continuous-time dynamic trajectory predictions from time series data, resolving the limitation on topological and data changes. This paper introduces the Online Neural Dynamics Forecaster (ONDF) workflow, designed to monitor and assess system security in real-time using multiple NODEs trained solely with local post-fault measurements. Through several case studies, we compare the regression and DSA classification capabilities of ONDF with various ML models. Our findings demonstrate that ONDF provides a novel and scalable approach for system operators to make informed decisions and apply corrective control actions based on predicted dynamics.

Power system operators require advanced applications in the control centers to tackle increasingly variable power transfers effectively. One urgently needed application concerns estimating the feasible available aggregated flexibility from a power system network, which can be effectively deployed to mitigate issues in interconnected networks. This paper proposes the TensorConvolution+ algorithm to address the above application. Unlike related literature approaches, TensorConvolution+ estimates the density of feasible flexibility combinations to reach a new operating point within the p-q flexibility area. This density can improve the decision-making of system operators for efficient and safe flexibility deployment. The proposed algorithm applies to radial and meshed networks, is adaptable to new operational conditions, and can consider scenarios with disconnected flexibility areas. Using convolutions and tensors, the algorithm efficiently aggregates the combinations of flexibility providers' adjustable power output that can occur for each flexibility area set point. Simulations on the meshed Oberrhein and radial CIGRE test networks illustrate the effectiveness of TensorConvolution+ for flexibility estimation with high numerical confidence and a minor computing effort. Additional simulations highlight how system operators can interpret the estimated density of feasible flexibility combinations for decision-making purposes, the algorithm's capability to estimate disconnected flexibility areas, and adapt to new operating conditions.