ASCAT normalized backscatter (σ₄₀^o) and slope (σ^′) contain valuable information about soil moisture and vegetation. While σ₄₀^o has been assimilated to constrain soil moisture, sometimes together with Leaf Area Index (LAI), this study is the first to assimilate σ^′ directly to constrain vegetation states. Here, we assimilate σ₄₀^o and slope σ^′ into the ISBA-A-gs LSM using the Simplified Extended Kalman Filter (SEKF) using a Deep Neural Network (DNN) as the observation operator. The performances of the data assimilation (DA) and open loop (OL) are evaluated against in-situ soil moisture observations from the International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN), and LAI observations from the Copernicus Global Land Service (CGLS). Given an accurate and physically plausible observation operator, along with well-defined model and observation errors, the data assimilation system should yield improved estimates of the model states. However, results show that the DA performance is neutral compared to the OL in terms of the median unbiased root mean square error (ubRMSE) and Pearson correlation coefficient (ρ) across all validation sites. In addition, an analysis of the residuals and innovations confirms that DA had limited or no impact. This poor performance is perplexing. Furthermore, given the growing interest in the use of machine-learning-based observation operators, it is essential to understand the role that the use of the DNN may be playing in this poor performance. While representativeness errors and error specification play some part, it is demonstrated that the key factor constraining the efficacy of the SEKF is the correct estimation of the Jacobians that control the degree to which the observations update the states in the SEKF. It is argued that the DNN relating model states to satellite observations must have physically-plausible and robust Jacobians for the DNN to be effective in a data assimilation framework.

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A Deep Neural Network (DNN) is used to estimate the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) C-band microwave normalized backscatter (σ40o), slope (σ′) and curvature (σ″) over France. The Interactions between Soil, Biosphere and Atmosphere (ISBA) land surface model (LSM) is used to produce land surface variables (LSVs) that are input to the DNN. The DNN is trained to simulate σ40o, σ′ and σ″ from 2007 to 2016. The predictive skill of the DNN is evaluated during an independent validation period from 2017 to 2019. Normalized sensitivity coefficients (NSCs) are computed to study the sensitivity of ASCAT observables to changes in LSVs as a function of time and space. Model performance yields a near-zeros bias in σ40o and σ′. The domain-averaged values of ρ are 0.84 and 0.85 for σ40o and σ′, compared to 0.58 for σ″. The domain-averaged unbiased RMSE is 8.6% of the dynamic range for σ40o and 13% for σ′, with land cover having some impact on model performance. NSC results show that the DNN-based model could reproduce the physical response of ASCAT observables to changes in LSVs. Results indicated that σ40o is sensitive to surface soil moisture and LAI and that these sensitivities vary with time, and are highly dependent on land cover type. The σ′ was shown to be sensitive to LAI, but also to root zone soil moisture due to the dependence of vegetation water content on soil moisture. The DNN could potentially serve as an observation operator in data assimilation to constrain soil and vegetation water dynamics in LSMs.@en

The beginning of the 21^st century is marked by a rapid growth of land surface satellite data and model sophistication. This offers new opportunities to estimate multiple components of the water cycle via satellite-based land data assimilation (DA) across multiple scales. By resolving more processes in land surface models and by coupling the land, the atmosphere, and other Earth system compartments, the observed information can be propagated to constrain additional unobserved variables. Furthermore, access to more satellite observations enables the direct constraint of more and more components of the water cycle that are of interest to end users. However, the finer level of detail in models and data is also often accompanied by an increase in dimensions, with more state variables, parameters, or boundary conditions to estimate, and more observations to assimilate. This requires advanced DA methods and efficient solutions. One solution is to target specific observations for assimilation based on a sensitivity study or coupling strength analysis, because not all observations are equally effective in improving subsequent forecasts of hydrological variables, weather, agricultural production, or hazards through DA. This paper offers a perspective on current and future land DA development, and suggestions to optimally exploit advances in observing and modeling systems.

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