Autonomous vehicles rely on accurate trajectory prediction to inform decision-making processes related to navigation and collision avoidance. However, current trajectory prediction models show signs of overfitting, which may lead to unsafe or suboptimal behavior. To address these challenges, this paper presents a comprehensive framework that categorizes and assesses the definitions and strategies used in the literature on evaluating and improving the robustness of trajectory prediction models. This involves a detailed exploration of various approaches, including data slicing methods, perturbation techniques, model architecture changes, and post-training adjustments. In the literature, we see many promising methods for increasing robustness, which are necessary for safe and reliable autonomous driving.

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Predicting the future behavior of human road users is an important aspect for the development of risk-aware autonomous vehicles. While many models have been developed towards this end, effectively capturing and predicting the variability inherent to human behavior still remains an open challenge. This paper proposes TrajFlow - a new approach for probabilistic trajectory prediction based on Normalizing Flows. We reformulate the problem of capturing distributions over trajectories into capturing distributions over abstracted trajectory features using an autoencoder, simplifying the learning task of the Normalizing Flows. TrajFlow outperforms state-of-the-art behavior prediction models in capturing full trajectory distributions in two synthetic benchmarks with known true distributions, and is competitive on the naturalistic datasets ETH/UCY, rounD, and nuScenes. Our results demonstrate the effectiveness of TrajFlow in probabilistic prediction of human behavior.

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Autonomous vehicles currently suffer from a time-inefficient driving style caused by uncertainty about human behavior, which could be improved by accurate and reliable prediction models enabling more efficient trajectory planning. However, the evaluation of such models is commonly over-simplistic, ignoring the asymmetric importance of prediction errors and the heterogeneity of the datasets used for testing. We examine the potential of recasting interactions between vehicles as gap acceptance scenarios and evaluating models in this structured environment. To that end, we develop a framework aiming to facilitate the evaluation of any model, by any metric, and in any scenario. We then apply this framework to state-of-the-art prediction models, which all show themselves to be unreliable in the most safety-critical situations.

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For trajectory prediction within autonomous vehicle planning and control, conditional variational autoencoders (CVAEs) have shown promise in accurate and diverse modeling of agent behaviors. Besides accuracy, explainability is also crucial for the safety and acceptance of learning-based autonomous systems, especially in autonomous driving. However, the latent distributions learned by CVAE models are often implicit and thus possess low explainability. To address this, we propose a semi-supervised generative modeling framework, \textbf{\textit{PrefCVAE}}, which utilizes partially and weakly labelled preference pairs to imbue the CVAE's latent representation with semantic meaning. This approach enables the system to estimate measurable attributes of the agents, and to generate manipulable predictions under the CVAE framework. Results show that incorporating our preference loss allows a CVAE-based model to make conditional predictions using the semantic factor of prediction average velocity. Our augmented framework also does not significantly degrade the baseline accuracy of prediction. Additionally, we show that the latent values learned with PrefCVAE better represent the semantic information contained in the data. Finally, we discuss the potential of this loss design to extend to other machine learning applications beyond trajectory prediction, as well as essential tricks for adaptation of human labeling. We hope that our empirical study offers the broader representation learning community a fresh perspective on inductive bias for disentangled and explainable latent representations in deep generative models. Specifically, we demonstrate that preference pair supervision, a simple and cost-effective approach, can effectively aid in learning semantic meanings for sampling-based generative models like the CVAE.

Trajectory prediction is a key element of autonomous vehicle systems, enabling them to anticipate and react to the movements of other road users. Robustness testing through adversarial methods is essential for evaluating the reliability of these prediction models. However, current approaches tend to focus solely on manipulating model inputs, which can generate unrealistic scenarios and overlook critical vulnerabilities. This limitation may result in incomplete assessments of model performance in real-world conditions. The specific effects of more comprehensive adversarial attacks on trajectory prediction models have not been thoroughly investigated. In this work, we demonstrate that by perturbing both model inputs and anticipated future states, we can uncover previously undetected weaknesses and provide a more realistic evaluation of model robustness. Our novel approach incorporates dynamical constraints and preserves tactical behaviors, enabling more effective and realistic adversarial attacks. We introduce new performance measures to assess the realism and impact of these adversarial trajectories. Testing our method on a state-of-the-art prediction model reveals significant increases in prediction errors and collision rates under adversarial conditions. Qualitative analysis further shows that our attacks can expose critical weaknesses, such as the model’s inability to detect potential collisions in what appear to be safe predictions. These results underscore the need for more comprehensive adversarial testing to better evaluate and improve the reliability of trajectory prediction models for autonomous vehicles. To support further research in this area, we provide an open-source framework for studying adversarial robustness in trajectory prediction. This work advances adversarial testing techniques, contributing to the safety and reliability of autonomous driving systems.

The estimation of probability density functions is a fundamental problem in science and engineering. However, common methods such as kernel density estimation (KDE) have been demonstrated to lack robustness, while more complex methods have not been evaluated in multi-modal estimation problems. In this paper, we present ROME (RObust Multi-modal Estimator), a non-parametric approach for density estimation which addresses the challenge of estimating multi-modal, non-normal, and highly correlated distributions. ROME utilizes clustering to segment a multi-modal set of samples into multiple uni-modal ones and then combines simple KDE estimates obtained for individual clusters in a single multi-modal estimate. We compared our approach to state-of-the-art methods for density estimation as well as ablations of ROME, showing that it not only outperforms established methods but is also more robust to a variety of distributions. Our results demonstrate that ROME can overcome the issues of over-fitting and over-smoothing exhibited by other estimators. @en

Understanding traffic participants' behaviour is crucial for predicting their future trajectories, aiding in developing safe and reliable planning systems for autonomous vehicles. Integrating cognitive processes and machine learning models has shown promise in other domains but is lacking in the trajectory forecasting of multiple traffic agents in large-scale autonomous driving datasets. This work investigates the state-of-the-art trajectory forecasting model Trajectron++ which we enhance by incorporating a smoothing term in its attention module. This attention mechanism mimics human attention inspired by cognitive science research indicating limits to attention switching. We evaluate the performance of the resulting Smooth-Trajectron++ model and compare it to the original model on various benchmarks, revealing the potential of incorporating insights from human cognition into trajectory prediction models.

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The development of automated vehicles has the potential to revolutionize transportation, but they are currently unable to ensure a safe and time-efficient driving style. Reliable models predicting human behavior are essential for overcoming this issue. While data-driven models are commonly used to this end, they can be vulnerable in safety-critical edge cases. This has led to an interest in models incorporating cognitive theory, but as such models are commonly developed for explanatory purposes, this approach's effectiveness in behavior prediction has remained largely untested so far. In this article, we investigate the usefulness of the Commotions model - a novel cognitively plausible model incorporating the latest theories of human perception, decision-making, and motor control - for predicting human behavior in gap acceptance scenarios, which entail many important traffic interactions such as lane changes and intersections. We show that this model can compete with or even outperform well-established data-driven prediction models across several naturalistic datasets. These results demonstrate the promise of incorporating cognitive theory in behavior prediction models for automated vehicles.

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Understanding traffic participants’ behaviour is crucial for predicting their future trajectories, enabling autonomous vehicles to better assess the environment and consequently anticipate possible dangerous situations at an early stage. While the integration of cognitive processes and machine learning models has demonstrated promise in various domains, its application in trajectory forecasting of multiple traffic agents in large-scale autonomous driving datasets remains lacking. This work investigates the state-of-the-art trajectory forecasting model Trajectron++ which we enhance by incorporating a smoothing term in its attention module. This attention mechanism mimics human attention inspired by cognitive science research indicating limits to attention switching. We evaluate the performance of the resulting Smooth- Trajectron++ model and compare it to the original model on various benchmarks. Our results show improved performance on the large-scale nuScenes dataset, revealing the potential of incorporating insights from human cognition into trajectory prediction models.

Autonomous vehicles currently suffer from a time-inefficient driving style caused by uncertainty about human behavior in traffic interactions. Accurate and reliable prediction models enabling more efficient trajectory planning could make autonomous vehicles more assertive in such interactions. However, the evaluation of such models is commonly oversimplistic, ignoring the asymmetric importance of prediction errors and the heterogeneity of the datasets used for testing. We examine the potential of recasting interactions between vehicles as gap acceptance scenarios and evaluating models in this structured environment. To that end, we develop a framework aiming to facilitate the evaluation of any model, by any metric, and in any scenario. We then apply this framework to state-of-the-art prediction models, which all show themselves to be unreliable in the most safety-critical situations.

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