Jeremy G. Fyke
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8 records found
1
Earth system/ice-sheet coupling is an area of recent, major Earth System Model (ESM) development. This work occurs at the intersection of glaciology and climate science and is motivated by a need for robust projections of sea-level rise. The Community Ice Sheet Model version 2 (CISM2) is the newest component model of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). This study describes the coupling and novel capabilities of the model, including: (1) an advanced energy-balance-based surface mass balance calculation in the land component with downscaling via elevation classes; (2) a closed freshwater budget from ice sheet to the ocean from surface runoff, basal melting, and ice discharge; (3) dynamic land surface types; and (4) dynamic atmospheric topography. The Earth system/ice-sheet coupling is demonstrated in a simulation with an evolving Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) under an idealized high CO2 scenario. The model simulates a large expansion of ablation areas (where surface ablation exceeds snow accumulation) and a large increase in surface runoff. This results in an elevated freshwater flux to the ocean, as well as thinning of the ice sheet and area retreat. These GrIS changes result in reduced Greenland surface albedo, changes in the sign and magnitude of sensible and latent heat fluxes, and modified surface roughness and overall ice sheet topography. Representation of these couplings between climate and ice sheets is key for the simulation of ice and climate interactions.
The Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is now losing mass at a rate of 0.7 mm of sea level rise (SLR) per year. Here we explore future GrIS evolution and interactions with global and regional climate under high greenhouse gas forcing with the Community Earth System Model version 2.1 (CESM2.1), which includes an interactive ice sheet component (the Community Ice Sheet Model v2.1 [CISM2.1]) and an advanced energy balance-based calculation of surface melt. We run an idealized 350-year scenario in which atmospheric CO2 concentration increases by 1% annually until reaching four times pre-industrial values at year 140, after which it is held fixed. The global mean temperature increases by 5.2 and 8.5 K by years 131–150 and 331–350, respectively. The projected GrIS contribution to global mean SLR is 107 mm by year 150 and 1,140 mm by year 350. The rate of SLR increases from 2 mm yr−1 at year 150 to almost 7 mm yr−1 by year 350. The accelerated mass loss is caused by rapidly increasing surface melt as the ablation area expands, with associated albedo feedback and increased sensible and latent heat fluxes. This acceleration occurs for a global warming of approximately 4.2 K with respect to pre-industrial and is in part explained by the quasi-parabolic shape of the ice sheet, which favors rapid expansion of the ablation area as it approaches the interior “plateau.”.
An Efficient Ice Sheet/Earth System Model Spin-up Procedure for CESM2-CISM2
Description, Evaluation, and Broader Applicability
Spinning up a highly complex, coupled Earth system model (ESM) is a time consuming and computationally demanding exercise. For models with interactive ice sheet components, this becomes a major challenge, as ice sheets are sensitive to bidirectional feedback processes and equilibrate over glacial timescales of up to many millennia. This work describes and demonstrates a computationally tractable, iterative procedure for spinning up a contemporary, highly complex ESM that includes an interactive ice sheet component. The procedure alternates between a computationally expensive coupled configuration and a computationally cheaper configuration where the atmospheric component is replaced by a data model. By periodically regenerating atmospheric forcing consistent with the coupled system, the data atmosphere remains adequately constrained to ensure that the broader model state evolves realistically. The applicability of the method is demonstrated by spinning up the preindustrial climate in the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2), coupled to the Community Ice Sheet Model Version 2 (CISM2) over Greenland. The equilibrium climate state is similar to the control climate from a coupled simulation with a prescribed Greenland ice sheet, indicating that the iterative procedure is consistent with a traditional spin-up approach without interactive ice sheets. These results suggest that the iterative method presented here provides a faster and computationally cheaper method for spinning up a highly complex ESM, with or without interactive ice sheet components. The method described here has been used to develop the climate/ice sheet initial conditions for transient, ice sheet-enabled simulations with CESM2-CISM2 in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6).
A collection of scientific analyses, metrics, and visualizations for robust validation of ice sheet models is presented using the Land Ice Verification and Validation toolkit (LIVVkit), version 2.1, and the LIVVkit Extensions repository (LEX), version 0.1. This software collection targets stand-alone ice sheet or coupled Earth system models, and handles datasets and analyses that require high-performance computing and storage. LIVVkit aims to enable efficient and fully reproducible workflows for postprocessing, analysis, and visualization of observational and model-derived datasets in a shareable format, whereby all data, methodologies, and output are distributed to users for evaluation. Extending from the initial LIVVkit software framework, we demonstrate Greenland ice sheet simulation validation metrics using the coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM) as well as an idealized stand-alone high-resolution Community Ice Sheet Model, version 2 (CISM2), coupled to the Albany/FELIX velocity solver (CISM-Albany or CISM-A). As one example of the capability, LIVVkit analyzes the degree to which models capture the surface mass balance (SMB) and identifies potential sources of bias, using recently available in situ and remotely sensed data as comparison. Related fields within atmosphere and land surface models, e.g., surface temperature, radiation, and cloud cover, are also diagnosed. Applied to the CESM1.0, LIVVkit identifies a positive SMB bias that is focused largely around Greenland's southwest region that is due to insufficient ablation.
We present climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) as simulated by the global, coupled ocean–atmosphere–land Community Earth System Model (CESM) with a horizontal resolution of ∼ 1 ∘ in the past, present and future (1850–2100). CESM correctly simulates present-day Antarctic sea ice extent, large-scale atmospheric circulation and near-surface climate, but fails to simulate the recent expansion of Antarctic sea ice. The present-day Antarctic ice sheet SMB equals 2280 ± 131 Gtyear-1, which concurs with existing independent estimates of AIS SMB. When forced by two CMIP5 climate change scenarios (high mitigation scenario RCP2.6 and high-emission scenario RCP8.5), CESM projects an increase of Antarctic ice sheet SMB of about 70 Gtyear-1 per degree warming. This increase is driven by enhanced snowfall, which is partially counteracted by more surface melt and runoff along the ice sheet’s edges. This intensifying hydrological cycle is predominantly driven by atmospheric warming, which increases (1) the moisture-carrying capacity of the atmosphere, (2) oceanic source region evaporation, and (3) summer AIS cloud liquid water content.