M.S. Cebeci
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10 records found
1
Uncovering heterogeneous decision-making in truck tour organization
A shipment-based behavioral modeling approach
Journal article
(2026)
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Yitao Yang, Ali Nadi, Dongdong Song, Merve Seher Cebeci, Bin Jia, Michiel de Bok, Lóránt A. Tavasszy
The efficient movement of freight trucks is vital for modern logistics, where the organization of truck tours is central to optimizing supply chain operations and minimizing transportation costs. The truck tour patterns embody a complex interplay of diverse decision-making factors, reflecting the effectiveness of transport and logistics planning initiatives. Despite previous research efforts, an in-depth analysis of understanding how various decision-making factors, such as time of the day and product type, interact and their heterogeneous effects on shaping truck tour patterns is still lacking. This limitation hinders the development of more effective and sustainable strategies for freight transportation. In this paper, by leveraging large-scale carrier and shipment dataset in the Netherlands, we capture and analyze the heterogeneity of over 1000 diverse tour patterns of freight trucks in terms of temporal, spatial, and shipment requirements characteristics. We further introduce a novel modeling approach using random parameters logit models with heterogeneity in means and variances to uncover the heterogeneous effects of various factors on the choice of truck tour patterns. The model results highlight the multifaceted nature of truck travel behaviors, offering practical implications for logistics operations, policy development and freight planning.
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The efficient movement of freight trucks is vital for modern logistics, where the organization of truck tours is central to optimizing supply chain operations and minimizing transportation costs. The truck tour patterns embody a complex interplay of diverse decision-making factors, reflecting the effectiveness of transport and logistics planning initiatives. Despite previous research efforts, an in-depth analysis of understanding how various decision-making factors, such as time of the day and product type, interact and their heterogeneous effects on shaping truck tour patterns is still lacking. This limitation hinders the development of more effective and sustainable strategies for freight transportation. In this paper, by leveraging large-scale carrier and shipment dataset in the Netherlands, we capture and analyze the heterogeneity of over 1000 diverse tour patterns of freight trucks in terms of temporal, spatial, and shipment requirements characteristics. We further introduce a novel modeling approach using random parameters logit models with heterogeneity in means and variances to uncover the heterogeneous effects of various factors on the choice of truck tour patterns. The model results highlight the multifaceted nature of truck travel behaviors, offering practical implications for logistics operations, policy development and freight planning.
Digital Twins for City Logistics
Towards a Roadmap
Book chapter
(2026)
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Lorant Tavasszy, Rodrigo Javier Tapia, Michiel de Bok, Merve Cebeci, Finn Niklas Winkelmann, Önder Gürcan
Freight transport in urban areas is one of the many challenging domains that cities have to manage. E-commerce and omni-channel services have fragmented the flow of deliveries, and the variety of modes of transport used for freight has expanded significantly. This development has created new concerns about increased nuisance to citizens, shortage of space for service providers, and reduced access to services for vulnerable groups. City authorities are looking for new ways to curb problems, anticipating on emerging trends and considering policy options, together with all relevant stakeholders. Digital twins of cities are promising tools to support this process. Their use to manage city liveability and efficiency is becoming increasingly common, and digital twinning technology is developing fast. The ambition of this chapter is to take stock of recent research developments on digital twins for city logistics in order to construct a narrative about key directions of innovation. We review the results of 3 recent projects that have chosen very different directions for innovation, related to data ingestion and simulation, to flexible use of models and to cross-domain twinning. Together, we argue, they form the cornerstones for an innovation roadmap for digital twins in city logistics.
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Freight transport in urban areas is one of the many challenging domains that cities have to manage. E-commerce and omni-channel services have fragmented the flow of deliveries, and the variety of modes of transport used for freight has expanded significantly. This development has created new concerns about increased nuisance to citizens, shortage of space for service providers, and reduced access to services for vulnerable groups. City authorities are looking for new ways to curb problems, anticipating on emerging trends and considering policy options, together with all relevant stakeholders. Digital twins of cities are promising tools to support this process. Their use to manage city liveability and efficiency is becoming increasingly common, and digital twinning technology is developing fast. The ambition of this chapter is to take stock of recent research developments on digital twins for city logistics in order to construct a narrative about key directions of innovation. We review the results of 3 recent projects that have chosen very different directions for innovation, related to data ingestion and simulation, to flexible use of models and to cross-domain twinning. Together, we argue, they form the cornerstones for an innovation roadmap for digital twins in city logistics.
Behaviour of Prosumers in Last-mile Logistics
The Case of Crowdshipping
This dissertation addresses consumer decisions in last-mile logistics, with a particular focus on the emerging concept of crowdshipping. By conceptualising consumers as both users and service providers of logistics services referred to as “prosumers”, this research examines how their dual role influences the efficiency and sustainability of last-mile delivery systems. Through a combination of defining a conceptual framework, empirical analyses, and a simulation study, this work investigates key aspects of crowdshipping and the role of prosumers in supply and demand perspectives.
The dissertation is structured around a main research question: How does prosumer decision-making within crowdshipping impact the performance and sustainability of last-mile delivery systems? To answer this overarching question, the research investigates several key aspects of consumer behaviour, specifically focusing on how consumers make decisions within hyperconnected delivery networks and their evolving role as active participants in crowdshipping…
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The dissertation is structured around a main research question: How does prosumer decision-making within crowdshipping impact the performance and sustainability of last-mile delivery systems? To answer this overarching question, the research investigates several key aspects of consumer behaviour, specifically focusing on how consumers make decisions within hyperconnected delivery networks and their evolving role as active participants in crowdshipping…
...
This dissertation addresses consumer decisions in last-mile logistics, with a particular focus on the emerging concept of crowdshipping. By conceptualising consumers as both users and service providers of logistics services referred to as “prosumers”, this research examines how their dual role influences the efficiency and sustainability of last-mile delivery systems. Through a combination of defining a conceptual framework, empirical analyses, and a simulation study, this work investigates key aspects of crowdshipping and the role of prosumers in supply and demand perspectives.
The dissertation is structured around a main research question: How does prosumer decision-making within crowdshipping impact the performance and sustainability of last-mile delivery systems? To answer this overarching question, the research investigates several key aspects of consumer behaviour, specifically focusing on how consumers make decisions within hyperconnected delivery networks and their evolving role as active participants in crowdshipping…
The dissertation is structured around a main research question: How does prosumer decision-making within crowdshipping impact the performance and sustainability of last-mile delivery systems? To answer this overarching question, the research investigates several key aspects of consumer behaviour, specifically focusing on how consumers make decisions within hyperconnected delivery networks and their evolving role as active participants in crowdshipping…
Conference paper
(2025)
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Önder Gürcan, Timo Szczepanska, Vanja Falck, Patrycja Antosz, Merve Seher Cebeci, Michiel de Bok, Rodrigo Tapia, Lóránt Tavasszy
Large-scale social digital twinning projects are complex with multiple objectives. For example, a social digital twinning platform for innovative last-mile delivery solutions may aim to assess consumer delivery method choices within their social environment. However, no single tool can achieve all objectives. Different simulators exist for consumer behavior and freight transport. Therefore, we propose a high-level architecture and present a blueprint for a generic modelling framework. This includes defining modules, input/output data, and interconnections, while addressing data suitability and compatibility risks. We demonstrate the framework’s effectiveness with two real-world case studies.
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Large-scale social digital twinning projects are complex with multiple objectives. For example, a social digital twinning platform for innovative last-mile delivery solutions may aim to assess consumer delivery method choices within their social environment. However, no single tool can achieve all objectives. Different simulators exist for consumer behavior and freight transport. Therefore, we propose a high-level architecture and present a blueprint for a generic modelling framework. This includes defining modules, input/output data, and interconnections, while addressing data suitability and compatibility risks. We demonstrate the framework’s effectiveness with two real-world case studies.
Conference paper
(2025)
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Salar Salehi, Merve Seher Cebeci, Michiel de Bok, Mahsa Tey, Marco Rinaldi, Guido Gentile
Last-mile delivery, one of the most polluting segments of the supply chain, is the focus of numerous studies. There are various innovative delivery methods aimed at mitigating its adverse effects. This study explores whether crowdshipping (CS) could serve as a sustainable urban logistics solution for Rome, assessing its environmental viability. It poses the question: Can Rome adopt CS, and if so, how sustainable would it be? Using real-world data, we employed the MASS-GT simulation tool to simulate parcel demand for various parcel companies in Rome’s urban areas. Additionally, we considered real data on trips made by employees to offices within the study area and their modes of transport. The analyses include predicting parcel demand and forming parcel schedules, both with and without CS.We also assessed employees’ willingness to make detours for parcel pickups. Our findings suggest that CS can reduce emissions depending on users’ willingness to adjust travel routes, which can be incentivized through monetization. Furthermore, by considering the fleet composition of parcel companies, we quantified the potential emissions savings achievable through CS. The results indicate that CS is applicable in Rome and could significantly reduce emissions by approximately 1.3 tonnes of CO2 per day, equivalent to 93 euros in the EU’s Emissions Trading System. This approach aligns with European emissions plans and validates the feasibility of CS in Rome through practical research. It offers valuable insights for policymakers, emphasizing the importance of encouraging user participation and supporting CS platforms.
...
Last-mile delivery, one of the most polluting segments of the supply chain, is the focus of numerous studies. There are various innovative delivery methods aimed at mitigating its adverse effects. This study explores whether crowdshipping (CS) could serve as a sustainable urban logistics solution for Rome, assessing its environmental viability. It poses the question: Can Rome adopt CS, and if so, how sustainable would it be? Using real-world data, we employed the MASS-GT simulation tool to simulate parcel demand for various parcel companies in Rome’s urban areas. Additionally, we considered real data on trips made by employees to offices within the study area and their modes of transport. The analyses include predicting parcel demand and forming parcel schedules, both with and without CS.We also assessed employees’ willingness to make detours for parcel pickups. Our findings suggest that CS can reduce emissions depending on users’ willingness to adjust travel routes, which can be incentivized through monetization. Furthermore, by considering the fleet composition of parcel companies, we quantified the potential emissions savings achievable through CS. The results indicate that CS is applicable in Rome and could significantly reduce emissions by approximately 1.3 tonnes of CO2 per day, equivalent to 93 euros in the EU’s Emissions Trading System. This approach aligns with European emissions plans and validates the feasibility of CS in Rome through practical research. It offers valuable insights for policymakers, emphasizing the importance of encouraging user participation and supporting CS platforms.
The URBANE Innovation Transferability Platform
Learnings for Decarbonising Last-Mile Delivery Networks
Book chapter
(2025)
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Rod Franklin, Ioanna Fergadiotou, George Misiakoulis, Georgia Ayfantopoulou, Zisis Maleas, Dimos Touloumidis, Merve Seher Cebeci, Timo Szczepanska, Michiel de Bok, Rodrigo Tapia, Lóri Tavasszy, Maria Kampa, Harris Niavis, Thanos Karydis, Patrycja Antosz, Önder Gürcan, Xavier Brusset, Ade Fajemisin, Aristea Zafeiropoulou
Logistics plays a crucial role in modern society, particularly in densely populated urban areas, facilitating the transportation of goods. Last-mile e-commerce deliveries are emissions-intensive, contributing significantly to CO2 levels and traffic congestion. Addressing this challenge requires systemic changes in last-mile delivery ecosystems. Based on this observation, in alignment with the EU decarbonisation goals, the URBANE project (GA101069782) aims to promote the adoption of sustainable and environmentally friendly last-mile delivery solutions by introducing a collaborative layered “Platform as a Service” (PaaS) paradigm. The initiative focuses on establishing Physical Internet (PI) inspired interventions combined with the implementation of innovative tools, such as agent-based and AI models, employing a Digital Twin platform addressing the operational and strategic planning challenges of city logistics networks. A multi-factorial impact assessment radar further enhances the evaluation of the PI interventions’ effectiveness. The platform fosters collaboration among urban logistics stakeholders governed through “green” smart contracts, addressing security and privacy concerns by using a blockchain infrastructure and digital IDs, creating a trustworthy system for collaboration. The paper showcases the applicability of the URBANE Innovation Transferability Platform in designing, measuring, testing, and validating targeted logistics interventions in Lighthouse Living Labs. Cities and logistic operators receive suggestions for informed data-driven decision-making coupled with integrated and transferable applications that can be standardised and structured, aligned with the targets set in a citie’s Sustainable Urban Logistics Plan (SULP).
...
Logistics plays a crucial role in modern society, particularly in densely populated urban areas, facilitating the transportation of goods. Last-mile e-commerce deliveries are emissions-intensive, contributing significantly to CO2 levels and traffic congestion. Addressing this challenge requires systemic changes in last-mile delivery ecosystems. Based on this observation, in alignment with the EU decarbonisation goals, the URBANE project (GA101069782) aims to promote the adoption of sustainable and environmentally friendly last-mile delivery solutions by introducing a collaborative layered “Platform as a Service” (PaaS) paradigm. The initiative focuses on establishing Physical Internet (PI) inspired interventions combined with the implementation of innovative tools, such as agent-based and AI models, employing a Digital Twin platform addressing the operational and strategic planning challenges of city logistics networks. A multi-factorial impact assessment radar further enhances the evaluation of the PI interventions’ effectiveness. The platform fosters collaboration among urban logistics stakeholders governed through “green” smart contracts, addressing security and privacy concerns by using a blockchain infrastructure and digital IDs, creating a trustworthy system for collaboration. The paper showcases the applicability of the URBANE Innovation Transferability Platform in designing, measuring, testing, and validating targeted logistics interventions in Lighthouse Living Labs. Cities and logistic operators receive suggestions for informed data-driven decision-making coupled with integrated and transferable applications that can be standardised and structured, aligned with the targets set in a citie’s Sustainable Urban Logistics Plan (SULP).
The fast growth of e-commerce in urban areas has led to a surge in last-mile transportation demand and an associated increase of external effects: congestion, noise and visual pollution. This paper analyses a new urban freight transport service that has a potential to reduce this footprint: crowdshipping. Crowdshipping is a service where a package is delivered via a traveller who is already making a personal trip for other purposes. The decision of whether or not to use crowdshipping is known to be subject to various service, time and price conditions, including trust in a correct delivery. The effect of trust has not been investigated explicitly, however. We conduct a stated choice experiment and estimate a hybrid choice model with trust as a situation-specific latent variable. The research design allows us to explore how the relevant attributes influence service adoption via trust. We find a significant influence of established choice attributes on service adoption, except for the delivery company’s reputation and the possibility of damage. In addition, all attributes except delivery time have a significant influence on trust. We conclude that trust has a partially mediating effect on the adoption of the service except delivery time, and a fully mediating effect on adoption via reputation and damage.
...
The fast growth of e-commerce in urban areas has led to a surge in last-mile transportation demand and an associated increase of external effects: congestion, noise and visual pollution. This paper analyses a new urban freight transport service that has a potential to reduce this footprint: crowdshipping. Crowdshipping is a service where a package is delivered via a traveller who is already making a personal trip for other purposes. The decision of whether or not to use crowdshipping is known to be subject to various service, time and price conditions, including trust in a correct delivery. The effect of trust has not been investigated explicitly, however. We conduct a stated choice experiment and estimate a hybrid choice model with trust as a situation-specific latent variable. The research design allows us to explore how the relevant attributes influence service adoption via trust. We find a significant influence of established choice attributes on service adoption, except for the delivery company’s reputation and the possibility of damage. In addition, all attributes except delivery time have a significant influence on trust. We conclude that trust has a partially mediating effect on the adoption of the service except delivery time, and a fully mediating effect on adoption via reputation and damage.
The growth of e-commerce and omnichannel retailing has led to significant changes in urban logistics deliveries. In addition to the traditional delivery channels, new solutions have been introduced, such as click-and-collect, parcel locker delivery, crowdshipping, and on-site delivery. However, such solutions require seamless connections between different layers of the city logistics system. These connections form, in the Physical Internet terminology, a “hyperconnected city”. In this context, how do consumers make decisions about logistics services, either as prospective users or as suppliers of last mile logistics services? We argue that a thorough understanding of consumers’ decision-making about last mile services is a prerequisite for the effective exploration of future demand for these services and the design of transport policies. While there is abundant literature on new approaches of last mile logistics, a review of research on consumers’ decision-making and participation in such services is absent. This paper aims to provide such a review and, based on this, provides directions for future research. Based on the existing literature, we propose a conceptual framework that categorises decisions and system attributes affecting consumers’ decision-making. Highlights for future research include interaction between consumers’ demand and supply decisions, changes in consumer preferences, the importance of social networks, and the city-level impacts of hyperconnected last mile delivery.
...
The growth of e-commerce and omnichannel retailing has led to significant changes in urban logistics deliveries. In addition to the traditional delivery channels, new solutions have been introduced, such as click-and-collect, parcel locker delivery, crowdshipping, and on-site delivery. However, such solutions require seamless connections between different layers of the city logistics system. These connections form, in the Physical Internet terminology, a “hyperconnected city”. In this context, how do consumers make decisions about logistics services, either as prospective users or as suppliers of last mile logistics services? We argue that a thorough understanding of consumers’ decision-making about last mile services is a prerequisite for the effective exploration of future demand for these services and the design of transport policies. While there is abundant literature on new approaches of last mile logistics, a review of research on consumers’ decision-making and participation in such services is absent. This paper aims to provide such a review and, based on this, provides directions for future research. Based on the existing literature, we propose a conceptual framework that categorises decisions and system attributes affecting consumers’ decision-making. Highlights for future research include interaction between consumers’ demand and supply decisions, changes in consumer preferences, the importance of social networks, and the city-level impacts of hyperconnected last mile delivery.
Crowdsourced shipping or crowdshipping is a promising contender for sustainable parcel delivery services due to the potential to consolidate freight trips with pre-existing passenger trips. However, the opportunity for private persons to act as occasional carrier can also generate new trips, which could then increase traffic volumes. Previous literature has focused on the consolidation case only, and has not addressed new activity generation in crowdshipping. In this study we investigate the willingness of private persons to accept shipments based on a newly generated home-based trip and compare this to choices of occasional carriers who had already planned their travel, in this case related to the daily commute. We conduct two stated preference experiments and apply a multinomial logit model to identify preferences. Additionally, a latent class choice model is utilized to explore the existence and effect of heterogeneity in preferences. The results show that commute-based and home-based trips have
different VoT parameters and the former is higher than the latter. Parcel lockers as delivery points have a positive effect on acceptance since they allow for more flexibility in delivery times. The latent class model suggests that the distinction between low income and high-income groups is relevant; here, the low-income group has a lower value of time and is more willing to make a detour to execute the delivery. The study provides first quantitative evidence that crowdshipping can act as a potential trip generator in households and recommends that this is taken into account in passenger transportation models.
...
Crowdsourced shipping or crowdshipping is a promising contender for sustainable parcel delivery services due to the potential to consolidate freight trips with pre-existing passenger trips. However, the opportunity for private persons to act as occasional carrier can also generate new trips, which could then increase traffic volumes. Previous literature has focused on the consolidation case only, and has not addressed new activity generation in crowdshipping. In this study we investigate the willingness of private persons to accept shipments based on a newly generated home-based trip and compare this to choices of occasional carriers who had already planned their travel, in this case related to the daily commute. We conduct two stated preference experiments and apply a multinomial logit model to identify preferences. Additionally, a latent class choice model is utilized to explore the existence and effect of heterogeneity in preferences. The results show that commute-based and home-based trips have
different VoT parameters and the former is higher than the latter. Parcel lockers as delivery points have a positive effect on acceptance since they allow for more flexibility in delivery times. The latent class model suggests that the distinction between low income and high-income groups is relevant; here, the low-income group has a lower value of time and is more willing to make a detour to execute the delivery. The study provides first quantitative evidence that crowdshipping can act as a potential trip generator in households and recommends that this is taken into account in passenger transportation models.
Journal article
(2023)
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Merve Seher Cebeci, Rodrigo Javier Tapia, Ali Nadi, Michiel de Bok, Lóránt Tavasszy
Crowdsourced shipping or crowdshipping is a promising solution to sustainable parcel delivery, owing to the potential to consolidate freight trips with preexisting passenger trips. Previous literature focuses on these consolidation benefits but does not address the possibility of new activity generation in crowdshipping. In this study, we investigate the willingness of private persons to accept shipments based on a newly generated home-based trip. We compare this to the choices of occasional carriers who build on the daily home–work commute to deliver parcels. Two stated preference experiments are conducted and a multinomial logit choice model and a latent class choice model are employed. These allow us to provide values of time of the occasional carriers, as an original contribution to the literature. The results show that commute-based carrier values of time are higher than those of home-based carriers. Concerning the trip generating power of crowdshipping, we find that low-income groups have a relatively high propensity to generate a home-based pickup and delivery trip. Finally, parcel lockers as delivery points positively influence acceptance of crowdshipping requests, as they allow for more flexibility in delivery times. Together, these results support the notion that crowdshipping can act as a potential trip generator in households.
...
Crowdsourced shipping or crowdshipping is a promising solution to sustainable parcel delivery, owing to the potential to consolidate freight trips with preexisting passenger trips. Previous literature focuses on these consolidation benefits but does not address the possibility of new activity generation in crowdshipping. In this study, we investigate the willingness of private persons to accept shipments based on a newly generated home-based trip. We compare this to the choices of occasional carriers who build on the daily home–work commute to deliver parcels. Two stated preference experiments are conducted and a multinomial logit choice model and a latent class choice model are employed. These allow us to provide values of time of the occasional carriers, as an original contribution to the literature. The results show that commute-based carrier values of time are higher than those of home-based carriers. Concerning the trip generating power of crowdshipping, we find that low-income groups have a relatively high propensity to generate a home-based pickup and delivery trip. Finally, parcel lockers as delivery points positively influence acceptance of crowdshipping requests, as they allow for more flexibility in delivery times. Together, these results support the notion that crowdshipping can act as a potential trip generator in households.