Traditional statistical approaches have advanced our understanding of the genetics of complex diseases, yet are limited to linear additive models. Here we applied machine learning (ML) to genome-wide data from 41,686 individuals in the largest European consortium on Alzheimer’s disease (AD) to investigate the effectiveness of various ML algorithms in replicating known findings, discovering novel loci, and predicting individuals at risk. We utilised Gradient Boosting Machines (GBMs), biological pathway-informed Neural Networks (NNs), and Model-based Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction (MB-MDR) models. ML approaches successfully captured all genome-wide significant genetic variants identified in the training set and 22% of associations from larger meta-analyses. They highlight 6 novel loci which replicate in an external dataset, including variants which map to ARHGAP25, LY6H, COG7, SOD1 and ZNF597. They further identify novel association in AP4E1, refining the genetic landscape of the known SPPL2A locus. Our results demonstrate that machine learning methods can achieve predictive performance comparable to classical approaches in genetic epidemiology and have the potential to uncover novel loci that remain undetected by traditional GWAS. These insights provide a complementary avenue for advancing the understanding of AD genetics.

Background and ObjectivesIdentifying genetic causes of dementia in patients visiting memory clinics is important for patient care and family planning. Traditional clinical selection criteria for genetic testing may miss carriers of pathogenic variants in dementia-related genes. This study aimed identify how many carriers we are missing and to optimize criteria for selecting patients for genetic counseling in memory clinics.MethodsIn this clinical cohort study, we retrospectively genetically tested patients during 2.5 years (2010-2012) visiting the Alzheimer Center Amsterdam, a specialized memory clinic. Genetic tests consisted of a 54-gene dementia panel, focusing on Class IV/V variants per American College of Medical Genetics and Genomics guidelines, including APP duplications and the C9ORF72 repeat expansion. We determined the prevalence of pathogenic variants and propose new eligibility criteria for genetic testing in memory clinics. The eligibility criteria were prospectively applied for 1 year (2021-2022), and results were compared with the retrospective cohort.ResultsGenetic tests were retrospectively performed in in 1,022 of 1,138 patients (90%) who consecutively visited the memory clinic. Among these, 1,022 patients analyzed (mean age 62.1 ± 8.9 years; 40.4% were female), 34 pathogenic variant carriers were identified (3.3%), with 24 being symptomatic. Previous clinical criteria would have identified only 15 carriers (44% of all carriers, 65% of symptomatic carriers). The proposed criteria increased identification to 22 carriers (62.5% of all carriers, 91% of symptomatic carriers). In the prospective cohort, 148 (28.7%) of 515 patients were eligible for testing under the new criteria. Of the 90 eligible patients who consented to testing, 13 pathogenic carriers were identified, representing a 73% increase compared with the previous criteria.DiscussionWe found that patients who visit a memory clinic and carry a pathogenic genetic variant are often not eligible for genetic testing. The proposed new criteria improve the identification of patients with a genetic cause for their cognitive complaints. In systems without practical or financial barriers to genetic testing, the new criteria can enhance personalized care. In other countries where the health care systems differs and in other genetic ancestry groups, the performance of the criteria may be different.