The evidence review report from SAPEA presents the latest scientific evidence on the subject of crisis management, and evidence-based policy options for action. The European Union is confronted with an increasing number of crises with growing complexity. Their effects can cascade and ripple to all parts of society, the economy, and the environment. The effects of such crises are not limited to specific geographical regions or sectors of society, and many crises continue indefinitely. Because they last, they overlap and amplify each other. Decisions made during crises are not only urgent, but have long-lasting consequences. Therefore, strategic crisis management needs to be aligned with broader policy objectives. Using digital tools, guidance and standards can be set for strategic foresight and risk monitoring, to ensure that a longer-term perspective is integrated. Better data preparedness can ensure that information can be shared effectively while respecting privacy and security when a crisis hits. To address the growing complexity of crises, we need a vision that integrates both risk management and crisis management. Different activities and organisations also need to coordinate: responses on multiple geographical and temporal scales need to be aligned, rather than aiming at the one ‘right’ level. Here, the EU could play an important coordinating role. The EU can also play a role in training decision- and policy-makers to coordinate and manage crises. Crises amplify existing inequalities, hitting the most vulnerable the hardest — and this can erode trust across society at exactly the time when trust is most needed. New technologies and forms of communication offer ways for citizens to be engaged and empowered. Involving civil society can bring many advantages, producing a better informed, tailored, and localised response.@en

Android is the most popular smartphone operating system. At the same time, miscreants have already created malicious apps to find new victims and infect them. Unfortunately, existing anti-malware procedures have become obsolete, and thus novel Android malware techniques are in high demand. In this paper, we present Falcon, an Android malware detection and categorization framework. More specifically, we treat the network traffic classification task as a 2D image sequence classification and handle each network packet as a 2D image. Furthermore, we use a bidirectional LSTM network to process the converted 2D images to obtain the network vectors. We then utilize those converted vectors to detect and categorize the malware. Our results reveal that Falcon could be an accurate and viable solution as we get 97.16% accuracy on average for the malware detection and 88.32% accuracy for the malware categorization.

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While product models and process models have a long standing transiting, there are few models that integrate the two type of models. Those that exist are research systems, which even if validated in industry do not have a broad uptake to date. This paper develops an integrated framework for product and process models based on the purpose the models are put it building on a model of Browning and Ramasesh. Selected integrated model are classified according to the framework. This revealed the no model to date gives equal weight to product and process models.

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Engineering change has grown steadily in prominence both as an important issue for industry and as an active academic research area. This paper provides a categorised overview and perspective on the published academic literature on engineering change. The aim is to give new researchers an understanding of the field's breadth and depth, as well as pointers towards additional information, and established researchers a non-dogmatic summary perspective on the work accomplished in this area. Change is defined as an alteration made to parts, drawings or software that have already been released during the product design process and life cycle, regardless of the scale or the type of the change. A change may encompass any modification to the form, fit and/or function.

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The authors use simulation to analyse the resource-driven dependencies between concurrent processes used to create customised products in a company. Such processes are uncertain and unique according to the design changes required. However, they have similar structures. For simulation, a level of abstraction is chosen such that all possible processes are represented by the same activity network. Differences between processes are determined by the customisations that they implement. The approach is illustrated through application to a small business that creates customised fashion products. We suggest that similar techniques could be applied to study intertwined design processes in more complex domains.@en

Adapting a design to the needs of a specific customer can be seen as a process in which an existing product is changed to incorporate desired properties and to exclude undesired ones. In a multi-project environment, many such projects are typically in execution at any given time and must compete for limited resources. Various strategies and approaches may be taken to organise such multi-project systems in order to maximise their effectiveness. This paper identifies and discusses several such strategies and shows how simulation can be used to explore their effectiveness in different contexts. Based on a case study of a simple, yet real customisation environment, we outline a discrete-event Monte-Carlo simulation model that we developed and which we argue can be used to explore some of the main issues. Although based on a simple example, we propose that the basic structure of our model could be used to derive insights for multi-project customisation environments in complex engineering domains.@en

In engineering design it is necessary not only to find creative solutions to problems, but to be able to do so without introducing unacceptable levels of risk into the process. This paper studies how engineering firms use creativity within a Business Process Excellence framework, through a case study of diesel engine design. Overall it appears that the emphasis on reliable and repeatable processes causes creativity to be displaced backwards into R&D and forwards into "emergency innovation" during integration.@en

Engineering change is a fundamental part of all design activities at all stages of design; complex products are designed by modification from existing ones; requirements change during long development projects; or problems through the design process or product use require rework. Yet engineering change has only recently become the topic of academic research and only few specific tools exist to manage engineering change. This paper reports on two workshops held in 2008, one in the UK and one in the US, where practising engineers reported on the challenges their organisations face with engineering changes and what approaches they take to deal with the effects of change. An analysis of 12 presentations shows that the causes for engineering change are very similar between different industries. However the approaches taken by companies to assess, manage and potentially take advantage of engineering changes are very different and in the absence of specific tools for managing engineering change companies used general process improvement and systems engineering tools, ranging from virtual design and QFD to high-level system simulation.

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This paper discusses a case study in which process simulation was applied to support the integration of life-cycle engineering activities into the existing design process at a major UK manufacturer of capital equipment. we demonstrate the practical value of process simulation as a tool to support the specification of changes to a complex, concurrent engineering design process. The paper also liilustrates how development of a design process simulation model can provide significant benefit to companies, not just in terms of the numerical results of simulation analysis, but through the understanding of process behaviour which is gained through validating the behaviour of the model in different iteration scenarios.

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Planning large-scale design projects is difficult due to a combination of structural variations in terms of task-connectivity patters and uncertainties concerning task durations, rework behaviour, requirements changes and resource availability. This paper uses generated, hypothetical models to explore how variations in design project structure - in terms of rework cycle duration and task connectivity level - are likely to impact plannability, and evaluates the findings against those for models of real industrial projects. Results show how the size and number of iteration loops impact the number of alternative task configurations that must be considered during planning. They also show that increasing connectivity between tasks is likely to adversely affect project schedules, particularly in the context of high-rework levels. In line with these and other insights obtained from the simulation analyses, heuristics for design planning are proposed.@en

Mitigating the influence of uncertainty in design projects without sacrificing performance is challenging, but also important as it may reduce the risk of engineering projects delivering over time or budget. In this paper, we discuss process modelling and simulation as a route to understanding the impact of uncertainty and thereby understanding robustness in design processes. We focus on robustness of process duration with regard to delays in constituent tasks. Firstly, we discuss some patterns by which processes respond to uncertainty by analysing how changes to the duration of an individual task can affect the overall duration of the process. Secondly, we highlight the complexity of process robustness analysis by using a discrete-event Monte-Carlo simulation to investigate the response of a 12-task mechanical component design process to uncertainty in task durations and rework. We argue that valuable insights can be gained by exploring the process response to modifying one input variable at a time. However, due to interdependencies between variables a multivariate approach would be necessary to fully investigate process robustness.@en

When using connectivity models to assess the potential impacts of component changes on other parts of a product, plausible inferences are readily assessed when such products are represented at the appropriate level of granularity to support specific queries. In this paper, we describe the development of a prediction algorithm, which enables coherent computations of the likelihoods of change propagating on several levels of detail of product description given component level change probabilities. The results show that a multilevel approach to change prediction supports an increased range of design queries beyond that achievable with a single level model. Such change prediction capability is useful when carrying out a comprehensive change impact assessment.@en

Embedded software is specifically designed for and integrated into the control system of a product. This software provides for flexibility in a product design by allowing for the accommodation of changes originating from mechanical or electrical designs. Within mechatronic products, embedded software can modify the functionality of a product without necessarily requiring the redesign of physical components. System designers coordinate the changes handled by embedded software for the mechanical and hardware designs. The perception that the software can easily be changed is often not the case. The synchronisation of cross-disciplinary design modifications with the embedded software design can be particularly complex, and the initiating changes often cause additional, unexpected modifications. Understanding the complete impact of a modification on the embedded software design is vital to managing this propagation of changes; unanticipated modifications create rework and unexpected costs during development. System and software designers perform change impact analysis during the design process to assess the scope or consequences of implementing a change in order to determine if the change should be carried out and to mitigate the occurrence of emergent changes within the embedded software design. The research presented investigates the range of impact analysis techniques available within system and software design and characterises the rigour of and influences on these tasks when implemented in practice, as identified through two empirical studies. Means to improve the quality of impact analysis are suggested through specific scenarios elicited from industry.@en

• Two component classification schemes based on components DSM were introduced • Provide information and strategies from a change perspective - PVP identifies components for change strategies - PAMP indicates components that could be frozen early • Help designers plan for new product variants • Both schemes can be used concurrently to provide more insights.@en

When designing complex products such as robots or jet engines, companies face the problem that designers lack the necessary tools to predict the behaviour of the product in the case of component change, and to assess the risks associated with decisions. Product models allow companies and individual designers to reason about product properties. The information in the model can be used to analyse the properties of a product before decisions are taken about potential modifications. To meet time and budget constraints it is vital to have the ability to predict the risks of knock-on effects before a change is implemented and select alternative changes accordingly. This paper introduces a comparison of two product models used in the Change Prediction Method (CPM) and the Contact & Channel Model (C&CM). It analyses ways where both approaches can benefit and complement each other in analysing and predicting product change.@en

This paper reports on an investigation into the modes of change propagation in complex products based on a series of case studies in an aerospace and an automotive company. The paper identifies three main conditions under which change tends to propagate and highlights the heterogeneous nature of factors that contribute to propagation. It was found that change tends to propagate between components when there are insufficient margins between coupled components, when there is an encroachment of design constraints or as a result of shortcomings of tools and processes used to support change processes. The paper concludes with a discussion on the implications of the nature of change propagation mechanisms on predicting the knock-on effects of change.@en

This paper describes research on the use of multiple views for modelling products and processes in the design of complex products. Single visual representations of design models only provide a limited perspective, hiding important information from the designer. Based on an industrial case study with an engine company, the utility of multiple views in analysing model data is demonstrated. The case study showed an industrial need for improved visualisation techniques, as the currently used method - Gantt charts of design tasks - did not provide enough information in order to properly steer the design process and predict process behaviour. This approach of using a variety of different visualisation techniques together with improved techniques for modelling and simulating design processes provides insight into the hidden dependencies between the design artefact (the product) and its design process.@en

Communication is a critical success factor in design. It can be seen as the social and cognitive process by which information is selected, messages are exchanged between interacting partners, and meaning is created. How communication processes can best be captured, analysed and assessed, as a preliminary step toward suggestions for improvement of communication practices, remains a challenge for researchers and practitioners. To this end, a maturity grid-inspired approach to audit communication practices has been developed. This paper employs a maturity grid approach and reflects critically on the construction and application of the approach in a structured group workshop in software design. Such an approach yields dual benefits: (a) as a research method to gather insight into communication and (b) as a guide to plan improvements in practice. Conclusions are drawn for the process of auditing communication in design.@en

Adjacency matrices or DSMs (design structure matrices) and node-link diagrams are both visual representations of graphs, which are a common form of data in many disciplines. DSMs are used throughout the engineering community for various applications, such as process modelling or change prediction. However, outside this community, DSMs (and other matrix-based representations of graphs) are rarely applied and node-link diagrams are very popular. This paper will examine, which representation is more suitable for visualising graphs. For this purpose, several user experiments were conducted that aimed to answer this research question in the context of product models used, for example in engineering, but the results can be generalised to other applications. These experiments identify key factors on the readability of graph visualisations and confirm work on comparisons of different representations. This study widens the scope of readability comparisons between node-link and matrix-based representations by introducing new user tasks and replacing simulated, undirected graphs with directed ones employing real-world semantics.@en

Design changes can be surprisingly complex. We examine the problems they cause and discuss the problems involved in predicting how changes propagate, based on empirical studies. To assist this analysis we distinguish between (a) a static background of connectivities (b) descriptions of designs, processes, resources and requirements and (c) the dynamics of design tasks acting on descriptions. The background might consist of existing designs and subsystems, or established processes used to create them. The predictability of design change is examined in terms of this model, especially the types and scope of uncertainties and where complexities arise. An industrial example of change propagation is presented in terms of the background (connectivity) - description - action model.@en