In practice, many structures among which quay walls are designed according the Dutch national guidelines (CUR). Dutch national practical guidelines (NPR), with guidelines for renovation, is still in development for the building industry. These guidelines follow the Dutch Norms (NEN) and Annexes. The guidelines propose procedures in which newly-built or existing quay walls are designed. This study investigates the effects of past performance on the semi-probabilistic level I method for the purpose of design and evaluation of quay walls. This research is performed with a case study considering a CUR class III quay wall from. The objective of this research is gathering insight into the different aspects of past performance, among which degradation and information about survived years, on the reliability level and corresponding influence factors. Firstly, prior analyses including deterministic validation are performed. The output resulting from characteristic values of the cross-section is validated by means of Blum and analyses with the subgrade reaction method. The computed deterministic output appears to be in accordance with the results from the reference study. Afterwards, prior probabilistic analyses were performed in which the reliability, weight factors and corresponding partial safety factors are reconsidered. Failure mechanism ’yielding of front wall’ is a frequent phenomenon and is assessed in this research. Level II FORM is used for the calculation and level III Importance sampling for the validation. The cross-section is adjusted according the reference case and the results are reasonably in compliance with the results found by GeoDelft for CUR class III. The computed 50 year reliability index β = 4.53 and corresponds well to the target reliability level of β_t = 4.5. Additionally, the situation in which random input variables are correlated and model uncertainty is included, is considered as well. These correlations and model uncertainty are determined based on previous researches among which. The cohesion of clay, internal friction angles, wall friction angles and water levels are correlated. The model uncertainty factor is lognormally distributed and applies as multiplication factor on the maximum bending moment. Explicitly, the latter results in a significant influence on the limit state. Effects given the reference period are considered as well. Large numbers of the dominant load variable q are simulated. The (extreme value) distribution converges to a Gumbel distribution with σ = 0.61. The stochastic distribution of the dominant load is transformed from and to different reference periods: 1, 5, 10, 25, 50 and 100 years. Eventually, for posterior analyses the 50 year reference case is translated to an annual situation in which the annual reliability index and sensitivity factors are derived. Including model uncertainty and cross correlated random variables, one finds a reliability index β = 2.33 as assumption for the posterior analyses. The Equivalent Planes method (EPM) has already been applied in the field of flood defences for reliability updating. This method formulates an failure plane equivalent to two or more combined limit states. In this research, the method has been applied in the temporal context. This means that the Equivalent Planes method is considered in the derivation of the reliability given effect(s) of past performance. The annual reliability index and sensitivity factors are used in this reliability updating method. The autocorrelation represents the correlation of the concerned variable in time. Time-dependent variables including uniform load and water levels assume an auto-correlation of 0, other parameters initially assume an auto-correlation equal to 1. The annual reliability index and sensitivity values are iteratively applied in this method for combining limit states. The equivalent failure plane Z uses a simplified expression in the standard normal space. Eventually a time-dependent reliability curve, as presented by the green line in figure 1, is found. Without model uncertainty, the blue curve is obtained. A higher initial annual reliability index results in a relatively smaller increase of the conditional reliability index. Hence, the effect of past performance decreases when a higher start value of the reliability index is used. Due to the reduced cross-correlation between the water levels on both sides, the time-dependent reliability significantly increases. At last, the time-related effects of quay walls are considered. These effects include:

• The irreducible time-dependent uncertainty related to the model uncertainty factor. Randomness or natural variation is included in the model uncertainty factor. This is performed by considering situations with a reduced autocorrelation ρ(Z_i, Z_j) (0.25, 0.50 and 0.75). The reducible time-dependent uncertainty of load variables including q, w_a and w_p. Knowledge uncertainties (epistemic uncertainties) are reducible in time, meaning autocorrelation approaching 1. The autocorrelations of the considered variables distributions are derived by using transformed random distributions.

• Degradation by corrosion of the stiffest elements in the steel front wall. Corrosion is studied by considering the effects of a log normally distributed wall thickness loss according to corrosion curve 3. This corrosion rate affects the primary element characteristics of the equivalent combined wall. The correlation between the water levels on the active and passive is reconsidered and changed from 0.75 to 0.25.


As follows, the below figures show the annual development of the annual reliability as a function of time t. Notice that the annual reliability index increases as the extent to which the uncertainty is epistemic increases. Further, the reliability converges less rapid to larger value(s) in case of auto-correlation approaching 0. In this research, corrosion is considered as an epistemic uncertainty. Two modelling approaches have been considered: an engineering approach, a second order approach. The engineering approach solely considers a reducing section modulus W, whereas the second order approach is additionally including the second moment of inertia I. Corrosion curve 3 results in both approaches to a flattening of the conditional reliability index as time progresses. In addition, the speed in which the influence of time-independent epistemic uncertainties decreases, is less in case of corrosion. Hence, the involvement of stochastic degradation negatively affects the extent to which the uncertainties are reducible. The updated reliability index is also calculated per reference period. This is performed with probabilistic calculation rules. The corresponding sensitivity values, given survival of previous years (see figure(s) 5), can be used in the semi-probabilistic level I method for derivation of the updated partial safety factors. These factors can be applied in the derivation of the design values per random variable considering a service life time t. Hence, the reliability of a quay wall and the transformed sensitivity coefficients can be updated with the Equivalent Planes method. Incorporation of degradation and other time-related effects is seemingly possible. However, further research with finite element modelling is recommended for verification purposes. ... Read more

The use of the North Sea has transitioned into an intensely used industrial area, with the climate agreement as a driving force. The Paris agreement demands countries to change their main energy resources from oil, coal and gas to renewable resources such as wind. The Dutch government chose to use the space offshore for the development of wind farms. These developments require a durable collaboration between the various stakeholders in the North Sea. Tensions exist between the different stakeholders in the North Sea, and the projected developments are expected to pressure these relationships even further. The need for shared multi-use areas grows as the North Sea is used more and more intensely. This report presents a multidisciplinary design for an artificially enhanced fisheries system within an offshore wind farm (OWF). The goal of this design is to provide a nature inclusive solution to increasing pressure on the fishing industry by the growing offshore wind sector. The possible implementation of a fishing industry within OWFs was analysed. This resulted in a number of applicable solution spaces. A notable solution was the Fish-as-a-Service concept, which resolves several issues that currently hinder the development of multi-purpose OWFs. In this solution, a company would fulfil the role of managing the fisheries in OWFs without the need for wind farm clients to actively partake in the fishing industry. Five target species were selected that could be harvested from an artificial reef system within an OWF. These species were European lobster, Brown crab, Atlantic cod, European seabass and Cuttlefish. The selection of these species was made based on economic interest, ecological interest, the potential for non-intrusive fishing methods and previous successes in other studies and/or projects. These species formed the basis of further ecological and financial examinations. Based on the biological and technical criteria following from the stakeholder and biological analysis, the most suitable wind farm site where an artificially enhanced fishing area could be implemented was selected. It was concluded that the Borssele Wind Farm Zones 1 and 2 would be the most suitable sites. The bathymetry, soil conditions, seabed dynamics and metocean data were further analysed in order to create a design for the artificial reef. A range of possible reef concepts were developed, including loose rock revetment, placed block revetment, layer cakes, biohuts, block reefs, layered pipes, shipwrecks and decommissioned oil or gas platforms. These concepts were verified for their operability and whether they met the requirements for bio-enhanced fisheries. Three preliminary designs for an artificial reef system in the Borssele OWF were made based on these reef concepts and the circumstances at the site. Of these designs, the most desirable one includes block reefs, natural stones, layer cakes, decommissioned oil or gas platforms and shipwrecks in order to promote biodiversity and yield as much biomass as possible. An Ecopath with Ecosim model was designed using available literature studies. This model was used to predict the amount of biomass produced in an OWF with and without hard substrate. An immense biomass increase in the target species European lobster (2.157.265%) and Brown crab (857.281%) was predicted with the addition of hard substrate. additionally, target species Atlantic cod and cuttlefish showed an increase of 1897% and 175% respectively. Surprisingly, European seabass was predicted to decrease with 93%. The estimated biomass was included in a study in the strengths and weaknesses of the business opportunities based on the Fish-as-a-Service concept. Costs and revenues throughout the lifetime of the sustainable fishery were taken into account, resulting in a final investment advice. The PERTH method was used to account for the uncertainty of estimating the costs of such a project. A detailed cash flow analysis was carried out in order to present a clear view on the different financial scenarios. The cash flow analysis showed a final Net Present Value (NPV) at year 25 of values between 3000 and 6000 mln EUR. This shows the profitability of the proposed design, with an Internal Rate of Return after tax of 69,90%. ... Read more