With climate change and rising sea levels, the coastal zone’s flood risk is deteriorating. Previous researches have shown a gradually degrading capacity of traditional hard engineering structures (e.g., seawall, dikes) on flood mitigation due to problems such as land subsidence and insufficient maintenance. To remedy the defects, the “building with nature concept” for coastal protection with saltmarshes was examined by combining field measurements and numerical simulations. The advantages of saltmarsh over traditional seawall on flood protection was demonstrated from the perspective of both flood area mitigation and economic gain, based on scenario simulations. Results show that tidal wetlands are essential in mitigating significant wave heights (H_s) and current velocities even during storm conditions. The storm wave and current velocity reduction ratio (RR_w and RR_c) by saltmarshes on Chongming Dongtan Shoal (CMDS) during Typhoon 9711 is approximately 11% and 51%, respectively. The wave and current mitigation by Scirpus mariqueter are more efficient than Spartina alterniflora and Phragmites australis during measurements in 2010, which were approximately 0.3 m and 0.2 m/s, 0.125 m and 0.155 m/s, 0.086 m and 0.128 m/s per kilometer width, respectively. The summer saltmarsh area 54.2 km² on CMDS protects approximately 32 km² land area behind the seawall from being flooded, equivalent to the seawall heightening of approximately 0.42 m on equivalent flood mitigation. The performance of cost-and-benefit analysis shows a relatively higher (by 3%–7%) net present value (NPV) and a higher (by 1.5 times) benefit-cost ratio (BC) of nature-based solution (i.e., saltmarsh restoration) compared with traditional hard engineering solution (i.e., seawall construction). Thus, building seawall with nature, such as a hybrid flood protection measure, should be implemented in the future coastal redesign and maintenance.

Flood risk is expected to increase in coastal cities, particularly in Asian megacities such as Shanghai. This paper presents an integrated modeling framework to simulate changes in the flood risk in Shanghai and provide a cost-benefit analysis of multiple adaptation strategies used to reduce risk. The results show that the potential flood risk will increase dramatically as a result of sea level rise, land subsidence, and socioeconomic development. By 2100, the expected annual damage could reach 0.8% (uncertainty range: 0.4%–1.4%) of local GDP under an optimistic emission scenario (RCP4.5), compared to the current value of 0.03%. All of the adaptation strategies can effectively reduce the flood risk under the current conditions and those in 2050. In contrast to the ‘hard’ flood protection strategies (i.e., storm-surge barriers and floodwalls), the ‘soft’ strategies (i.e., building codes and nature-based measures) cannot substantially reduce the flood risk in 2100. However, the soft strategies can play a critical role in reducing the residual risk resulting from the hard strategies. A ‘hybrid’ strategy combining a storm-surge barrier, wet-proofing, and coastal wetland development outperforms both hard and soft strategies in terms of low residual risk and high benefit/cost ratio. Additionally, the hybrid strategy can also enable a larger reduction in casualties. These findings imply that managing flood risk is more than the use of single adaptation measures. The methodology developed in this paper can enlighten Shanghai and other coastal cities on an economically and socially feasible adaptation strategy in an uncertain future.

Extreme flooding usually causes huge losses of residential buildings and household properties, which is critical to flood risk analysis and flood resilience building in Shanghai. We developed a scenario-based multidisciplinary approach to analyze the exposure, losses and risks of residential buildings and household properties, and their spatial patterns at the neighborhood committee level in Shanghai, based on extreme storm flood scenarios of 1/200, 1/500, 1/1000 and 1/5000-year. Our findings show that the inundation area of the residential buildings caused by a 1/200-year storm flood reaches 24.9 km², and the total loss of residential buildings and household properties is 29.7 billion CNY (Chinese Yuan) (or 4.4 billion USD), while the inundation area of residential buildings and the total loss increases up to 162.4 km² and 366.0 billion CNY (or 54.2 billion USD), respectively for a 1/5000-year storm flood. The estimated average annual loss (AAL) of residential buildings and household properties for Shanghai is 590 million CNY/year (or 87.4 million USD/year), with several hot spots distributed around the main urban area and on the bank of the Hangzhou Bay. Among sixteen districts, Pudong has the highest exposure and annual expected loss, while the inner city is also subject to extreme flooding with an AAL up to near half of the total. An analysis of flood risk in each of 209 subdistricts/towns finds that those most vulnerable to storm flooding are concentrated in Pudong, Jiading, Baoshan Districts and the inner city. Our work can provide meaningful information for risk-sensitive urban planning and resilience building in Shanghai. The methodology can also be used for risk analysis in other coastal cities facing the threat of storm flooding.