M.A. Diaz Loaiza
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6 records found
1
Design & assessing the flood risk management paradigm shift
An interdisciplinary study of Vlissingen, the Netherlands
Mining activities depend significantly on water resources availability as it consists a major tool of the extraction, processing and the post closure mining operations. Especially, groundwater is the major water source in most mining areas. However, overexploitation, competition from the communities and climate change effects have caused significant stress on the groundwater resources in many areas of the Mediterranean basin. The sustainability of mining operations is threatened as well as the uninterrupted supply of raw materials to the industry. In this work spatial estimation and analysis of groundwater stress at hydrological basin-scale in the European part of the Mediterranean region is applied using local and global datasets. Aquifer productivity index and groundwater use information at monitoring sites are extracted from the River Basin Management Plans of the European Environment Agency, while groundwater recharge is considered from the World-wide Hydrogeological Mapping and Assessment Program (WHYMAP) after validation. The processing of these data using the Self Organized Maps technique and their integration within a novel function, provide the groundwater stress index. The output of this work can be used for governance and management decisions that will improve groundwater resources availability in vulnerable areas ensuring the sustainable use from the communities and the industry.
Coastal flood hazard and exposure are expected to increase over the course of the 21st century, leading to increased coastal flood risk. In order to limit the increase in future risk, or even reduce coastal flood risk, adaptation is necessary. Here, we present a framework to evaluate the future benefits and costs of structural protection measures at the global scale, which accounts for the influence of different flood risk drivers (namely sea-level rise, subsidence, and socioeconomic change). Globally, we find that the estimated expected annual damage (EAD) increases by a factor of 150 between 2010 and 2080 if we assume that no adaptation takes place. We find that 15 countries account for approximately 90 % of this increase. We then explore four different adaptation objectives and find that they all show high potential in cost-effectively reducing (future) coastal flood risk at the global scale. Attributing the total costs for optimal protection standards, we find that sea-level rise contributes the most to the total costs of adaptation. However, the other drivers also play an important role. The results of this study can be used to highlight potential savings through adaptation at the global scale.
.Flood risk is expected to increase in coastal cities, particularly in Asian megacities such as Shanghai. This paper presents an integrated modeling framework to simulate changes in the flood risk in Shanghai and provide a cost-benefit analysis of multiple adaptation strategies used to reduce risk. The results show that the potential flood risk will increase dramatically as a result of sea level rise, land subsidence, and socioeconomic development. By 2100, the expected annual damage could reach 0.8% (uncertainty range: 0.4%–1.4%) of local GDP under an optimistic emission scenario (RCP4.5), compared to the current value of 0.03%. All of the adaptation strategies can effectively reduce the flood risk under the current conditions and those in 2050. In contrast to the ‘hard’ flood protection strategies (i.e., storm-surge barriers and floodwalls), the ‘soft’ strategies (i.e., building codes and nature-based measures) cannot substantially reduce the flood risk in 2100. However, the soft strategies can play a critical role in reducing the residual risk resulting from the hard strategies. A ‘hybrid’ strategy combining a storm-surge barrier, wet-proofing, and coastal wetland development outperforms both hard and soft strategies in terms of low residual risk and high benefit/cost ratio. Additionally, the hybrid strategy can also enable a larger reduction in casualties. These findings imply that managing flood risk is more than the use of single adaptation measures. The methodology developed in this paper can enlighten Shanghai and other coastal cities on an economically and socially feasible adaptation strategy in an uncertain future.