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Nigel Birch

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Master thesis (2025) - K. van Maanen, E. Quaglietta, J.A. Annema, N. van Oort, Nigel Birch
This study presents a comparative analysis of the three train-bus timetable synchronisation approaches in order to improve the performance and attractiveness of integrated public transport networks in rural areas. While the existing literature mainly focuses on synchronisation approaches separately, limited attention has been given to comparing the different synchronisation approaches, with the incorporation of passenger demand. To address this gap, this research develops a Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) model to compare the three synchronisation approaches: train-first, bus-first, and simultaneous synchronisation. Applied to a rural public transport network in Friesland, the model minimises total passenger travel time weighted by passenger demand. The case study, consisting of one train line and thirteen connecting bus services, provides a manageable evaluation of the model. The results show that simultaneous synchronisation consistently outperforms the sequential approaches, achieving the lowest total passenger waiting time for most operating hours and service lines. Comparing the simultaneous synchronisation approach to the current timetable shows significant improvements in total passenger waiting time across all operating hours and for most of the lines. A mode choice analysis using a Multinomial Logit (MNL) model shows an increase in ridership based on the improved timetable, which facilitates a modal shift from private car to public transport. These findings show that timetable synchronisation alone, without improving infrastructure or the addition of more services, can increase the attractiveness of the public transport network. These findings are especially important in rural areas where car dependency is typically higher. The results suggest that transport authorities should reconsider the current sequential timetable synchronisation practices. Optimisation of multimodal networks simultaneously can improve the performance and attractiveness of integrated public transport networks in rural areas. ...
Master thesis (2025) - A.J.C. Kolff, L.A. Tavasszy, A.J. van Binsbergen, N. Mouter, C. Maat, Alexander Warmelink, Nigel Birch
Private rail sidings form the physical access gates for companies to the rail network. Without these rail freight, transport is not possible and these private sidings can be seen as an indicator of the competitiveness of rail transport. However, the number of private sidings has dropped significantly over the last decades, which limits the rail freight sector and the resilience of the rail network. A resilient rail network is important to reach societal goals such as emission reduction and less road nuisance. This research focuses on this problem by proposing concrete strategies to help the companies using rail transport and allow them to use their private sidings. Through the help of literature, data and stakeholder interviews, an Osterwalder business model canvas, SWOT analysis and TOWS matrix are constructed to identify the problems and propose strategies. Causal diagrams show the coherence of the sector and how problems, strategies and private sidings influence each other. The first result is a new way of categorising companies and their respective private sidings. This reveals the underlying problems and strengths per type of private siding. The most important problems are rising costs, unreliability of the rail network and limited usability of the private siding due to regulations and non-electrified infrastructure. To combat this, six strategies are proposed with the introduction of a second infrastructure manager to combat costs and regulations and specific infrastructure investments as the most promising strategies. Effective policies require tailored solutions based on the type of company and private siding. This can help the Dutch rail sector and increase the resilience of the transport network. ...
Master thesis (2024) - J.J. Zegeling, N. van Oort, E. Quaglietta, A.M. Salomons, Wouter Leyds, Nigel Birch
In the upcoming years more train passengers are expected and with more trains on the tracks railway systems require greater resilience. Switches can play a major role during disruptions as they enable trains to be rerouted onto other tracks, allowing them to bypass the disruption but switches also facilitate overtaking, meet-pass operations at stations as well as diverging and merging at junctions. Since switches consist of numerous parts and the fact these are moving infrastructure elements they are subject to failure itself. Maintenance is expensive and ProRail, the Dutch infrastructure manager, only has a limited budget from the government and if certain switches are only used during disruptions it sounds logical to remove those switches. With on average 50 disruptions per day in the Netherlands with both small and huge impact, it is important to get insights into the relationship between resilience and the location of the switches.

In this thesis a model is constructed that evaluates the impact of a set of disruption scenarios on different switch configurations. Four key performance indicators are found in literature that can measure resilience quantitatively: costs (number of switches), rate of cancelled services, punctuality and time to recover. In interviews with rail experts, weightings for the four KPIs are derived which are used to calculate a score for all disruption scenarios and infrastructure layouts. A trade-off between costs and resilience is made in order to find the optimal switch configuration for a double track and four track layout which provides the highest capacity during disruptions. The set of disruptions including cause, location and duration come from an extensive analysis of disruption events of the past 6.5 years in the Netherlands.

Currently, NS is cancelling many trains since NS is examined on punctuality and not on the number of trains. This research aims to cancel as few trains as possible which is also examined in a case study where the model is validated. The Dutch railway line Utrecht Centraal – Arnhem Centraal appears to have a weak spot and by proposing new switch location configurations on a part of this line the score increased, despite the fact that more switches have been included in the proposed solution. Since the big renovation, 108 switches in Utrecht Centraal were removed by ProRail which improved punctuality, capacity and speed but decreased the flexibility: a disruption between Utrecht and Arnhem (or Eindhoven) currently has a lot of impact on the train service between Amsterdam and Utrecht, because short turning options in Utrecht are rare. This means that trains are now being cancelled completely or short turn already in Amsterdam. By using smart options with new rerouting strategies, capacity between Amsterdam and Utrecht can be kept high with the proposed solution during a disruption between Utrecht and Arnhem or Eindhoven. ...
Master thesis (2023) - Berend van Voorst tot Voorst, W. Daamen, Y. Yuan, N. van Oort, Laura Pardini Susacasa, Barth Donners, Nigel Birch
This research aims to understand the influencing attributes of passengers and station layout elements on transfer walking times for metro transfers. Little research has been performed to include passenger-related attributes to model transfer walking time besides station layout elements. Through a literature review, the effect of gender, luggage size, group size and level of crowding are potential attributes. Furthermore, the vertical transport mode choice, including the lift, the waiting condition to board a vertical transport mode and the alighting location, are also part of the influential attributes besides the transfer length. The walking time and passenger characteristics have been collected through a covert observation. In the data analysis, the effect of group size, vertical transport mode choice, waiting condition to board and the alighting location significantly impact the transfer walking time and the walking time on a transfer segment level. These attributes have been captured in walking time and passing speed models for various transfer segment types. The walking time models can predict a lower, mean and upper bound of the walking time for each combination of attributes. The case study for the walking time collection was metro station Beurs, Rotterdam. ...