Making decisions when future conditions are uncertain is a challenging endeavor. This thesis develops a framework to analyse flood risk and create Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, which can provide insights in the behaviour of flood risk protection measures in many future scenarios. The pathways are used to identify robust measures, dead ends and compare measures. The framework is applied to a case study in the Galveston Bay area. ... Read more

The Netherlands is world famous when it comes to coastal defence. The world is always changing, therefore the Netherlands, together with many countries, has to adapt constantly to the climate. This constant change means that in particular the coastline of the Netherlands requires extra attention because of the uncertainty of sea level rise. The Dutch coastline is protected by means of a static approach. However the intention for the future is to apply an adaptable design to better handle sea level rise. This report focuses on a method that uses a dynamic approach with the aim of keeping the Netherlands protected against rising sea levels that are uncertain. This dynamic approach consist of several pathways that each consist of different actions. With the help of evaluation-criteria, the pathways in the dynamic approach are evaluated. The outcome of this evaluation is described and recommendations for future research are given.

The report focuses on keeping the coastline of the south-west of the Netherlands protected against the uncertainty of the rising sea. This will be done with the help of a dynamic approach. First, an area analysis was carried out to find out what aspects should be given the most attention. After that, the method of DAPP is used to function as a dynamic approach. This Dynamic Adaptive Pathway Policy is then used to implement the different pathways in a structured way. These pathways are made up of different actions. These actions are existing plans presented by Deltares and they form a big list. Not all plans do function properly in order to function as a flood protection and so a selection method is used to extract the right plans out of this list. The requirements that are used to select the right plans have its main focus on protecting the hinterland against sea level rise, storm surge and wave load. The extracted plans that function as an action are implemented in the different pathways of the DAPP. To evaluate these pathways, evaluation-criteria are used in a Multi Criteria Analysis. These criteria are extracted from sources like a stakeholder analysis, old and new watermasters and a brainstorm session with the group members who act through their own accumulated expertise. The extracted criteria in combination with determined weighting factors are placed in a Multi Criteria Analysis after which the pathways have been assessed individually. This evaluation process led to some pathways being iterated to a different shape for the final design of the DAPP.

From the project can be concluded that the DAPP approach works well to combine different static plans into a comprehensive mitigation strategy. Secondly the evaluation criteria can be successfully derived from the old and new watermasters. The old watermasters already have one or more of their plans implemented. The new watermasters, are working on flood protection plans for the future in their daily life and have a lot of experience in the current engineering field. From the stakeholder analyses, the criteria can also be derived but than from the perspective of a variety of stakeholders. Thirdly, organizing criteria using a PESTLE (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental) and objectives tree has significant benefits for determining weighting factors. At last, it can be concluded that the main requirements used in this project are a good starting point, but they are only focused on reducing the flood risk (only technology). To select plans on a wider perspective(also Political, Economic, Social, Legal and Environmental), it is recommended to take a closer look to requirements from that perspectives. Advised is to consult experts in those fields to help with that. ... Read more

Manycoastal cities are struggling with a rapidly growing risk of flooding. The sizeand complexity of these cities often demand a coordinated strategy, consistingof a combination of flood risk reduction measures. A crucial part in the designprocess is the identification of effective flood risk management strategies. However,data and resources are often limited in these early stages of design, which ischaracterized by the many different options and measures that can be considered.The focus of this study is to identify the needs and challenges of this ‘floodrisk screening’ phase and develop and implement a model framework to supportdecision making in this stage. At the centre of the study is the developmentand application of such a model: the Flood Risk Reduction Evaluation andScreening, or FLORES, model. This dissertation includes two real-life casestudies which explain the structure and development of the FLORES model, aswell as two new applications in conceptual design – flood risk analysis basedon low-resolution data, and robust decision making – that are easier toimplement in flood risk management when combined with flood risk screeningmodels.The FLORESmodel has been implemented in two case studies, one in the USA and one in Mozambique.In the Houston-Galveston Bay Area, USA, the model showed the reliance of theentire region’s flood risk on the choices made at the coastal barriers.Especially the effectiveness of inland Nature-based Solutions heavily relied onthe placement and elevation of coastal structures. In Beira, Mozambique, coastalstructures are combined and compared with other measures, such as drainagesystems, retention, and early-warning systems. The use of flood risk screeningprovided insight into the effectiveness of individual measures, as well ascombinations of measures, and prioritized strategies based on predeterminedgoals. In both cities, these insights, combined with a better understanding ofthe local flood risk and how it is influenced by risk reducing measures andfuture scenarios, can be used to support decision makers in finding the mosteffective strategy going forward. ... Read more

The current approach in riverine climate adaptation strategies aims to accommodate all functionalities of rivers into one singular riverbed, but runs into the limitations of an integrated spatial system. The research shows that the different functionalities of rivers, i.e. the different riverine regimes, in synchronization will lead to a decline in performance of these separate regimes.

This thesis project Perspectives on the IJssel explores and illustrates an alternative future for the IJssel, in which an integral approach is paramount but with a methodology build on spatial decomposition rather than spatial integration. The project argues that integrative design through spatial segregation in parallel systems offers a widening of solution space within an integral approach.
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In 2011, Adaptive Delta Management (ADM) was introduced in the Dutch Delta Program as a policy development method to incorporate uncertainty in decision making transparently. Currently, little is known over the functioning of ADM in practice, while this is determining its success. The study explores the application of ADM in Dutch practice. Starting from the scientific foundation of ADM is being researched how ADM is shaped in practice using interviews with actors on the strategy level and the implementation level. The results are analyzed to explore what they mean for the adaptiveness of coping with sea-level rise by Dutch delta management. The research shows that the application of the greater part of the instruments of Adaptive Delta Management (ADM) is not coherent with how they should be applied according to theory. The first difference observed is that adaptation pathway maps in practice are far simpler than prescribed in theory; they only contain the preferential strategy instead of multiple strategies, and no signposts and transfer stations are defined. Secondly, adaptation tipping points are more flexible in practice than is prescribed in theory. The final difference observed is that evaluating strategies in practice has a fixed rhythm, while according to theory, continuous evaluation and recalibration should occur whenever new information comes available. The main implication of these differences is that ADM in practice provides less guidance to policymakers on when and which adjustments of strategies are needed than in theory. Based on the analysis of the similarities and differences between theory and practice, the research found that currently, the governance of ADM in practice in the Netherlands does not enhance adaptation to sea-level rise. The study stresses the importance of taking action to keep the Netherlands safe from sea-level rise now and in the future. Therefore, several recommendations inspired by the theoretical foundation of ADM are proposed to ensure adaptation to sea-level rise is enhanced. The first recommendation aims to ensure that policymakers get insight into the solution space to cope with sea-level rise and understand what measures need to be taken today to keep the long-term solutions open. Furthermore, actors involved in the implementation of strategies (such as regional water authorities, municipalities and water utility companies) should obtain insight into the possible consequences of sea-level rise for their area and know how to incorporate this in decision making. ... Read more

At the UN conference of 2015, the promotion of inland waterway transport (IWT) was named as a Sustainable Development Goal by the United Nations. While IWT has been identified to make goods transport more CO2- efficient, the long-term viability of the Dutch IWT sector is at risk.

Currently, Dutch IWT businesses benefit from increased demand for transport capacity during climate change induced periods of low river depth by being able to charge higher prices to shippers, thereby increasing short term profits. This thesis research project concludes that this behaviour is unsustainable due to the disregard for providing price competitive and reliable services to shippers, which will ultimately damage the reputation of the Dutch IWT sector. This can lead to shippers choosing other modes of transport, which will damage the long-term viability of IWT demand.

A lack of evident optimal climate adaptation measures that would better guarantee the long-term viability of an IWT business under any climate scenario is one of the reasons why IWT businesses have thus far been hesitant towards implementing climate adaptation measures. This thesis research project studies the potential of using a robust decision analysis in supporting IWT businesses’ decision-making on climate adaptation measures that could safeguard the long- term viability of the Dutch IWT sector. It conducts a robust decision analysis and then evaluates its potential using feedback from stakeholders of the Dutch IWT sector.

This thesis research project present the results from the robust decision analysis to IWT stakeholders to evaluate how these could impact their decision-making. Stakeholders noted that they believe that the produced influence diagram could be used as a standard communication object to produce a better consensus of how measures influence the long-term viability of IWT demand. Furthermore, stakeholders expressed that the robust decision analysis provided them a better understanding of which measures were able to better guarantee the long-term viability of IWT demand. Results from evaluation interviews with stakeholders therefore provide grounds to believe that robust decision analyses have potential to support IWT businesses’ decision- making on climate adaptation measures that could safeguard the long-term viability of the Dutch IWT sector. ... Read more

Flood risk management is the process of analysing, assessing and (if required) reducing flood risks, in terms of economic costs and affected population or loss of life. The analysis is performed through a probabilistic approach in which the factors are represented by a probability distribution function to address uncertainties. However, relevant factors in the analysis, such as mean sea level and the population living in the area, often are deeply uncertain on the longer term, resulting for example from climate change and changing socio-economic conditions. Generally, FRM explores these conditions through scenario analysis. However, the way FRM creates and analyses the scenarios is subjective and leaves open a lot of uncertainty. Often, only a limited set of subjective qualitative scenarios is made, which risks not taking scenarios into account that turn out to be important later. Quantitative scenarios become increasingly uncertain as the time horizon over which these are used lengthens, due to uncertainty in the trend.This research investigates a new addition to flood risk management to support it in dealing with long-term deep uncertainty. It uses robust decision making approaches as an addition to the usual FRM approach, by analysing results for a much larger set of scenarios to increase robustness, both static and flexible, to different scenarios. It combines aspects of dynamic adaptive policy pathways (Haasnoot, Kwakkel, Walker, & ter Maat, 2013) and aspects from robust decision making (Lempert, Popper, & Bankes, 2003), with the FRM approach to create an eight-step iterative approach called Flood Risk Adaptation Pathways, which was later tested in a case study. The approach starts by analysing the current situation and possible futures, after which it determines the difference between those situations and the preferred state. Based on this, possible flood risk reduction measures are designed, and then tested on their performance in a flood risk screening model, to create so called effectiveness regions, which show under which conditions which solutions are effective in reducing the gap between states. Based on the effectiveness regions, pathways of actions over the different possible futures are created. A monitoring plan is then created, which defines the signposts and their trigger values. Finally, the situation is monitored and actions are implemented when required.The Flood Risk Adaptation Pathways approach aims to provide policymakers with the ability to anticipate different futures, by creating actions, which meet the objectives, for a wide range of tested futures. It should allow policymakers to plan the implementation of measures ahead of time. The long-term situation is investigated, including the measures required at that point, and linked to the current situation, including the currently required measures. This should ensure that measures remain implementable by actively assuring the conditions for implementation are not violated, thus reducing negative effects of path-dependency. The link between the long-term measures and the current measures should also allow for an improved cohesion of the sequence of measures, with short-term measures providing a starting point for long-term measures. Finally, it narrows down the measures to the ones highlighted by the approach for later on in the process, when an action needs to be implemented.The approach has been tested in a case study, on Beira, Mozambique, which is prone to severe rainfall and coastal flooding. Furthermore, compound flooding problems arise when high sea water levels coincide with rainfall events. The Flood Risk Reduction Evaluation and Screening model (van Berchum, van Ledden, Jonkman, Timmermans, & van den Broek, 2019) was used to model the current flood risk, as well as the effect of flood risk reduction measures on the flood risk, affected population and construction costs. For this research, the model was adapted to test specific actions over a set of changing conditions, to test their performance for the longer term. The approach was then used in the case study, following the steps (described above). The data was gathered from local sources and reference projects. After the completion of the case study, the approach was reflected upon: The main limitation arising from the case study, is the considerable computation time and time-consuming analysis of the results. Overall, Flood Risk Adaptation Pathways strengthen the FRM approach in dealing with long-term deep uncertainty, and thereby enhance the performance of flood risk reduction strategies under different than expected conditions. ... Read more

Rural communities in drylands of low-income countries represent highly vulnerable societies that are
often strongly affected by the increased climate variability (UNDP, 2007/2008). Additionally to climatic
uncertainty, local households have also to cope with strongly fluctuating political and economic
conditions, which are difficult to predict and impede regional development. Current planning practices
that aim to address these uncertainties are often model based top-down focused approaches that lack an
appropriate inclusion of local stakeholders. Crucial next steps are the downscaling of models to increase
their local applicability and the incorporation of the knowledge and preferences of practitioners to
achieve a sustainable landscape management plan. In this thesis, I developed a participatory planning
approach to support sustainable development under uncertain future conditions and applied it to a case
study in the southern drylands of Zimbabwe.
The newly developed planning approach is based on a synthesis of current good practices in development
aid and recent advancements of research in predictive planning and management. Specifically, the
dynamic adaptive policy pathways (Haasnoot et al., 2013) are merged with the landscape approach (Sayer
et al., 2013), which accounts for sustainable development in a participatory manner, and transformed into
a new dynamic adaptive development pathways approach.
The dynamic adaptive development pathways approach was applied to plan the upscaling of irrigation
practices using an alluvial aquifer in Zimbabwe. A critical step was the use of visualisation sessions and
focus group discussions to define the landscape area and local values, as well as to assemble a set of
promising development actions. I then assessed the collected information using value matrixes and a
hydrological model, to design different pathways for sustainable development.
The creation of naturally, socially and ecologically sustainable pathways in a participatory manner for this
case study proved possible and may function as a seed for sustainable development in the area. While
uptake and application of the approach by local stakeholders still needs to be assessed, the adaptive
capacity seems a valuable addition for development planning under uncertain future conditions. ... Read more

Sea levels are rising globally and the melting Antarctic ice sheet is attributed to be the primary contributor. Due to the deep uncertainty of the causal representative carbon pathways, the plausible range of sea levels rise varies between 0,26 - 2,43 m for 2100 and 0,50 - 15,52 m for 2300. To address deep uncertainty, decision making methods arise which struggle with including measures preparing the shift from incremental to transitional strategies required for the case of extreme sea level rise scenarios. This research addresses flood risk management in the Netherlands, a country which will face ecological, economical, technological and political challenges as sea levels climb. In anticipation to extreme sea level rise and its challenges, the Dutch process of coastline shortening and solidating can be carried through. Another viable option is a more gradual zone between land and water. To review both options, the distribution of systems sensitive to flooding is mapped. The overlay of systems facilitates the establishment of a framework which distinguishes elements based on their pace of transition and offers a multilayered image differentiating regions with an emphasis on either population or nature. This dichotomy structures the proposal for the transitional territorial outline by harmoniously applying a superimposed coastline and a dynamic coastline respectively. Tipping points of flood defence measures assess the physical feasibility of the transition which is mainly constrained by societal limitations. This results in incremental improvements, further increasing transfer costs, path dependency and the difficulty to shift to transitional strategies. Throughout history, only catastrophic floods were leading to transitional flood measures, but transition management is referred to as enabling development of a long-term sustainability perspective, linked to desired societal transitions, to guide accelerated social innovation in the short term. The theory’s transition arena with frontrunners and a transition image is capable of opposing the resistance-giving, established standard and is instrumental for communication, discussion and evolvement of the transition of flood risk management. ... Read more