The Netherlands is exposed to fluvial and pluvial flooding aggravated by the subsidence of the land, which pose significant threats to the population. Flood risks due to climate change are a growing concern, especially in urban and riverine areas. The responsibility for the consequences of extreme weather events lies unidirectionally on the shoulders of the state, which can no longer guarantee the safety of its inhabitants. This thesis explores the use of serious games as a tool to enhance municipal flood risk communication and community adaptability in order to achieve a shared responsibility.

The research is carried out using the "WhereWeMove" serious game case study, developed to simulate flood scenarios and the homeowner’s decision-making process involved in flood risk management. The thesis seeks to answer the following research questions: How can municipalities use gaming, such as "WhereWeMove," to communicate with residents about the flood risks and related house adaptive measures? What are the implications of using such a gaming approach for the municipality? How can municipalities better involve citizens in co- creating flood risk management strategies through gaming?

To meet the research objective, a theoretical framework was used as a reference to identify key influential categories for the adoption of innovations by government organizations. The reference framework outlines five categories, with a focus on the organizational, individual, and innovation categories. The environmental category was primarily used as criteria for selecting the area of interest for this study, while the inter-organizational category was narrowed down to communication and co-creation practices, aligning with the focus of the WhereWeMove game.

To explore the way and extent in which the WhereWeMove game could be used as a communication tool, this thesis addresses the research questions through a dual qualitative analysis. The first step aimed to identify the extent to which co-creation is facilitated, based on results from a preliminary WhereWeMove session with students, conducted prior to playing the game with residents. The second step involved conducting interviews with municipal staff involved in planning adaptation strategies, to explore the perceived drivers and barriers to adopting the WhereWeMove game in their current practices.

In conclusion, the thesis demonstrates the potential of serious games as a transformative tool in municipal flood risk communication. By using the model resulting from the practice and theory, organizations can identify the key influential factors and transform barriers into drivers in order to use serious games within their institutions. Engaging citizens through interactive debriefing and collaborative gaming experiences allows co-creation with municipalities, enabling them to work together to test and refine policies, ultimately fostering a culture of preparedness and shared responsibility. ... Read more

Recent Conflict Early Warning Systems have found little evidence of predictive power of drought indicators for conflict prediction. However, this may result from the context-specificity of the drought-conflict relationship, as stressed in the more recent climate-conflict literature.

The present thesis assesses the local role of meteorological drought indicators for communal conflict prediction in North-Western Kenya, as a region where the narrative of resource-scarcity driven conflicts exists.

A local-scale literature review on conflict dynamics followed by a fixed-effects logistic regression modelling approach stress the importance of the spatial dimension when analysing drought-conflict relationships. The role of cross-border transhumance in linking climate variability to conflict occurrence is stressed by the lower confidence intervals and more significant effects when moving the regression analysis from the spatial delimitation of administrative units to the agency level of ethnic groups.

Differences in between ethnic groups in the obtained patterns of conflict behaviour in response to drought or water abundance are explained by their migratory behaviour along with a differentiated account of their relative drought vulnerability.

The lack of any considerable role of drought in the subsequently built quasi-replication of the WPS Global Early Warning Tool, is therefore assigned to the mismatch of administrative units as the spatial
unit of analysis in a pastoralist area, where herders frequently move their cattle to the other side of the border.

It is advocated for an ethnic-group centered approach to predicting conflict, which relaxes assumptions on spatial containment of conflict events. However, whether this alternative model specification leads
to a greater role of drought indicators in conflict prediction and better overall predictions, needs to be assessed in future work. ... Read more

Climate change is intensifying severe weather and flood hazards, putting riverfront residents at growing risk. Although existing public flood defences like dikes and nature-based solutions offer protection, recent events like those in Limburg in 2021 highlight the need to address flood risk at the homeowner level. With the expectation that homeowners must accept some flood risk, engaging them is crucial to tackling climate change's escalating impacts. Therefore, homeowners should implement private flood measures, but many fail to recognize the urgency. In the Netherlands, where a shared responsibility approach to flood risk management is evolving, provincial governments must engage homeowners to prepare for increasing flood risk. To do this, governments need insights into homeowners' preferences and motivations regarding public and private flood protection measures. This research addresses this need through a serious game and examines homeowner profiles and factors influencing private flood protection adoption.
The study begins with a literature review, incorporating theories like the Tiebout model and the Protection Motivation Theory (PMT). The serious game "Where We Move" is selected, and techniques such as latent class analysis, ANOVA, and T-tests are used to determine homeowner profiles and influences on private flood measure adoption.
Three homeowner attitude profiles emerge: "Cautious Optimists," "Informed Preparers," and "Cautious Realists." These profiles reflect different knowledge levels and future flood expectations. Optimists are less likely to adopt private measures, suggesting that increasing knowledge, particularly about climate change's impact on floods, could heighten perceived threats and drive greater adoption.
Preferences for private measures are influenced by environmental benefits, personal advantages like aesthetics, and societal benefits. Financial means affect the type of measure chosen, with wealthier individuals opting for more expensive options. However, income levels do not impact the inclination to protect against flooding, highlighting that financial capabilities influence the measure's cost but not the protective response.
The level of public flood protection affects homeowners' residency choices. Generally, "grey" solutions like dikes are preferred, but low-income homeowners prioritize well-protected areas, even at a higher cost. High-income homeowners choose cheaper dike area houses and allocate their savings elsewhere.
Information about the risk reduction effect significantly influences private measure adoption, affecting homeowners' coping abilities. This aligns with research showing that informed decision-making leads to increased adoption. Homeowners are motivated when they perceive high threat levels, possess coping abilities, and take ownership of the risk. Flood experience influences the type of measure but not the adoption rate.
To address homeowners' lack of urgency, the study suggests improving communication strategies to emphasize how private measures reduce risks. Subsidies and collaborative initiatives can narrow the gap between high and low-income homeowners. Future research should explore intangible factors like psychological stress and denial and consider cost-effectiveness, familiarity, knowledge levels, and perspectives on future flooding.
While this research provides valuable insights, it acknowledges limitations in sample variation and size adequacy and doesn't delve into nuanced factors like psychological stress. Future research can build on these insights, refining flood risk mitigation strategies for safer and more resilient communities in the face of flooding.
... Read more