We develop a Model Predictive Control (MPC) approach for condition-based maintenance planning under uncertainty for railway infrastructure systems composed of multiple components. Piecewise-affine models with uncertain parameters are used to capture both the nonlinearity and uncertainties in the deterioration process. To keep a balance between robustness and optimality, we formulate the MPC optimization problem as a chance-constrained problem, which ensures that the constraints, e.g., bounds on the degradation level, are satisfied with a given probabilistic guarantee. Two distributed algorithms, one based on Dantzig-Wolfe decomposition and the other derived from a constraint-tightening technique, are proposed to improve the scalability of the MPC approach. Computational experiments show that the distributed method based on Dantzig-Wolfe decomposition performs the best in terms of computational time and convergence to global optimality. By comparing the chance-constrained MPC approaches with deterministic approach, and traditional time-based maintenance approach, we show that despite their high computational requirements, chance-constrained MPC approaches are cost-efficient and robust in the presence of uncertainties.

We develop a multi-level decision making approach for optimal condition-based maintenance planning of a railway network divided into a large number of sections with independent stochastic deterioration dynamics. At higher level, a chance-constrained Model Predictive Control (MPC) controller determines the long-term section-wise maintenance plan, minimizing condition deterioration and maintenance costs for a finite planning horizon, while ensuring that the deterioration level of each section stays below the maintenance threshold with a given probabilistic guarantee in the presence of parameter uncertainty. The resulting large MPC optimization problem containing both continuous and discrete decision variables is solved using Dantzig-Wolfe decomposition to improve the scalability of the proposed approach. At a lower level, the optimal short-term scheduling of the maintenance interventions suggested by the high-level controller and the optimal routing of the corresponding maintenance crew is formulated as a capacitated arc routing problem, which is solved exactly by transforming it into a node routing problem. The proposed approach is illustrated by a numerical case study on the optimal treatment of squats of a regional Dutch railway network. Simulation results show that the proposed approach is robust, non-conservative, and scalable.

This paper presents a Pareto-based maintenance decision system for rail welds in a regional railway network. Weld health condition data are collected using a train in operation. A Hilbert spectrum-based approach is used for data processing to detect and assess the weld quality based on multiple registered dynamic responses in the axle box acceleration measurements. The assessment of the welds is stochastic in nature and variant over time, so a set of robust and predictive key performance indicators is defined to capture the weld degradation dynamics during a given maintenance period. Using a scenario-based approach, two objective functions are defined, performance and the number of weld replacements. Evolutionary multi-objective optimization is employed to optimize the objective functions so that the trade-offs between performance and cost support decision-making for railway network maintenance. The results of the proposed methodology show that the infrastructure manager can localize field inspections and maintenance efforts on the area with the most critical welds. To showcase the capability of the proposed methodology, measurements from a regional railway network in Transylvania, Romania are employed.

This paper presents a condition-based treatment methodology for a type of rail surface defect called squat. The proposed methodology is based on a set of robust and predictive fuzzy key performance indicators. A fuzzy Takagi-Sugeno interval model is used to predict squat evolution for different scenarios over a time horizon. Models including the effects of maintenance to treat squats, via either grinding or replacement of the rail, are also described. A railway track may contain a huge number of squats distributed in the rail surface with different levels of severity. This paper proposes to aggregate the local squat interval models into track-level performance indicators including the number and density of squats per track partition. To facilitate the analysis of the overall condition, a single fuzzy global performance indicator per track partition is proposed based on a fuzzy expert system that combines all the scenarios and predictions over time. The proposed methodology relies on the early detection of squats using axle box acceleration measurements. Real-life measurements from the Meppel-Leeuwarden track in the Dutch railway network are used to show the benefits of the proposed methodology. The use of robust and predictive fuzzy performance indicators facilitates the visualization of the track health condition and eases the maintenance decision process.

This paper develops a multi-level decision making approach for the optimal planning of maintenance operations of railway infrastructures, which are composed of multiple components divided into basic units for maintenance. Scenario-based chance-constrained Model Predictive Control (MPC) is used at the high level to determine an optimal long-term component-wise intervention plan for a railway infrastructure, and the Time Instant Optimization (TIO) approach is applied to transform the MPC optimization problem with both continuous and integer decision variables into a nonlinear continuous optimization problem. The middle-level problem determines the allocation of time slots for the maintenance interventions suggested at the high level to optimize the trade-off between traffic disruption and the setup cost of maintenance slots. Based on the high-level intervention plan, the low-level problem determines the optimal clustering of the basic units to be treated by a maintenance agent, subject to the time limit imposed by the maintenance slots. The proposed approach is applied to the optimal treatment of squats, with real data from the Eindhoven-Weert line in the Dutch railway network.

Railway infrastructure monitoring is a vital task to ensure rail transportation safety. A rail failure could result in not only a considerable impact on train delays and maintenance costs, but also on safety of passengers. In this article, the aim is to assess the risk of a rail failure by analyzing a type of rail surface defect called squats that are detected automatically among the huge number of records from video cameras. We propose an image processing approach for automatic detection of squats, especially severe types that are prone to rail breaks. We measure the visual length of the squats and use them to model the failure risk. For the assessment of the rail failure risk, we estimate the probability of rail failure based on the growth of squats. Moreover, we perform severity and crack growth analyses to consider the impact of rail traffic loads on defects in three different growth scenarios. The failure risk estimations are provided for several samples of squats with different crack growth lengths on a busy rail track of the Dutch railway network. The results illustrate the practicality and efficiency of the proposed approach.