PART I | A RESEARCH AND DESIGN PROJECT ABOUT FLOOD RISK POLICY SINCE 1986 The period between the Dutch flood disaster of 1953 and the year 2016 can be divided into two eras, separated by the year 1986, when the famous Eastern Scheldt barrier was completed. The perspective of water professionals on flood risk policymaking during the three decades before 1986 was dominated by the reconstruction approach of the Delta Works and has frequently been studied. The three decades after 1986 have a less obvious general approach, which has not yet been studied in depth as a whole. This dissertation attempts to develop a coherent perspective on flood risk policy during the last 30 years. This thesis’s research objective is to develop a comprehensive flood risk and water systems analysis framework, to be used for two purposes. First, providing a historical interpretation of flood risk policy by answering the main research question: how can the development of the Dutch flood risk system since 1986 be characterised fundamentally? In the core of the thesis, three main historical trends are identified. The first trend results from a study of systematic approaches to flood risk through the years, the second main trend addresses the relevance to flood risk of additional flood risk-related water system objectives (freshwater conveyance, shipping, nature/ecotopes and landscape quality) and the third trend involves additional new ideas or narratives which have been influential during the studied period. The second purpose of the water systems analysis framework is to meet the design objective of the thesis: to design an internet platform to represent the systems analysis framework and illustrate historical and future development of the Dutch flood risk system. The aim of the platform is to systematically organize and visualize the available studies and design projects, to educate about water systems, to inspire users to add contributions and monitor user behaviour to help indicate new research and design opportunities and support policy decisions. Acknowledged criteria for scientific and societal relevance guide the design throughout the thesis. Chapter 2 introduces the platform, which was called SimDelta in 2012 and renamed Flowz in 2017. A brief survey of approaches to water system planning and ‘serious games’ concludes that a graphic interface to visualise technical-physical complexity and socio-political complexity (or: supply and demand of analyses and ideas) is increasingly recognised to contribute to effective policymaking. A structure for the platform is proposed, consisting of six stackable software blocks: the base block contains interactive maps generated in a systems model, the top block involves communication between stakeholders to make choices in a virtual problem-solution space. Usage over the internet makes it possible to record preferences, and ‘crowdsource’ corrections, improvements and new ideas. The extent to which the concept can contribute to policymaking can only be tested by developing it step-by-step. Chances for success will depend on how the platform relates to existing ways information is obtained and existing types of decision support. PART II | AN INTEGRATED FLOOD RISK AND WATER SYSTEMS ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK (not added here…) PART III | STRUGGLING IN ‘MASLOW’S HIERARCHY FOR WATER INFRASTRUCTURE (not added here…).@en

An accurate prediction of shoreline changes behind detached breakwaters is, in regard to the adjustment to the environmental impact, still a challenge for designers and coastal managers. This research is expected to fill the gaps in the estimation of shoreline changes by developing new and generalized relationships of the shoreline changes to the detached breakwaters at several sensitive points, based on varying structure parameters, physical conditions and sediment properties of the prototypes. The generalization of relationships is intended to create new predictive possibilities. Chapter 2 presents the changes of waves and currents, leading to morphological changes in the sheltered areas of the breakwaters. As a consequence, the various positions of breakwaters’ field change the morphology on the shoreline, such as the center of a structure, the shoreline opposite a gap, the up-drift and the down-drift position. To solve these problems, several methods are used to investigate the shoreline response, such as numerical, physical, and empirical models. In chapter 3, the prototype approach is used as justifiable data for the development of the relationship models. In total 93 projects with 1144 structures were collected, including structure parameters, physical conditions, sediment properties and shoreline result measurements. The structural parameters are collected from a variety of sources, such as inquiry questionnaires, project reports, a selection of specific articles, journals and papers. The structural aspects, such as length of breakwater, offshore distance, gap width, freeboard, crest width, water depth at structure and structure orientation, are collected. The physical condition data, including wave, current and tidal range, were retrieved from online scientific resources and organizations. In chapter 4 the predictive relationships of the shoreline changes are developed with the different accretion formations and the shore positions. The models start with the findings of the basic relationships of the shoreline changes and continue with the development of the relationships of the shoreline changes including the other parameters. The collective relationships of the shoreline changes are a combination of the total effects. The new relationships are developed to estimate the siltation of tombolo, salient and limited response; for the shoreline opposite the gap, for the up-drift and the down-drift. All these relationships are analysed for the goodness of fit (R-squared), the error of estimate and the correlation coefficients of the regression. Further on in this chapter, several existing models of the relationships are compared with the new basic relationships. However, there are no previous relationships to be compared with the complete relationships. In chapter 5 the quantitative individual parameter effects on the shoreline changes are interpreted. The shoreline change functions relate to multiple parameters, therefore, the effect of each parameter needs to be analysed, while keeping the other parameters unchanged on the shoreline results. Comparison between the degree of the shoreline changes caused by the different parameters, thus, will show which parameters have more influence on the shoreline changes.@en

Multifunctional flood defences are structures that primarily protect land from being covered by water and simultaneously serve other purposes. The present dissertation focuses on the combination of flood protection with functions that are fulfilled by means of buildings and objects, with a high degree of structural integration. This can typically be found in the urban context, where the combination of long-term flood protection and spatial quality is considered crucial for the viability of cities along rivers and seas. The design of multifunctional flood defences is more complicated than of plain flood defences, as two incompatible design cultures are involved: spatial design and hydraulic engineering. Moreover, the structural composition of multifunctional flood defences is more complex and more diverse than of plain flood defences. Therefore, an overall, integrated, design method was developed that maintains the strengths of both existing approaches, but avoids their weaknesses. In addition, a method is proposed for the design phase of verifying the flood protection function. The methods were validated by design teams of students and by additional case studies.@en

We present here a Bayesian framework of risk perception. This framework encompasses plausibility judgments, decision making, and question asking. Plausibility judgments are modeled by way of Bayesian probability theory, decision making is modeled by way of a Bayesian decision theory, and relevancy judgments are modeled by way of a Bayesian information theory. These theories are discussed in Parts I, II, and III, respectively, of this thesis. Bayesian probability theory is fairly well known and well established. Bayesian probability theory is not only a powerful tool of data analysis, but it also may function as a model for the way we (implicitly) do induction, that is, the way we make plausibility judgments on the basis of incomplete information. In Part I of this thesis we will make the case that Bayesian probability theory is nothing but common sense quantified. The Bayesian decision theory, as proposed in this thesis, derives directly from Bayesian probability theory. In this decision theory we compare utility probability distributions, which are constructed by way of assigning utilities, that is, subjective worths, to the objective outcomes of our outcome probability distributions, which are derived by way of Bayesian probability theory. When the outcomes under consideration are monetary, then we may use the Weber-Fechner law of psychophysics, or, equivalently, Bernoulli's utility function, to assign utilities to these outcomes. This mapping of outcomes to utilities, transforms our outcome probability distributions to their corresponding utility probability distributions. That utility probability distribution which is located more to the right on the utility axis will tend to be, depending on the context of our problem of choice, either more profitable or less disadvantageous than the utility probability distribution that is more to the left. So, we will tend to prefer that decision which `maximizes' our utility probability distributions. This then, in a nutshell, is the whole of our Bayesian decision theory. In Part~II of this thesis, we will apply the Bayesian decision theory to both investment and insurance problems. Not all questions are equal, some questions, when answered, may give us more information than others. Stated differently, questions may differ in their relevancy, in relation to some issue of interest we wish to see resolved. This is borne out by the well known adage that, 'to know the question, is to have gone half the journey'. Bayesian information theory, by way of a mathematical operationalization of the concept of a question, allows us to determine which question, when answered, will be the most informative in relation to some issue of interest. The Bayesian information theory does this by assigning relevancies to the questions under consideration. These relevancies are then operated upon, by way of the information theoretical product and sum rules, in order to determine the relevancy of some question in relation to the issue of interest. The Bayesian information theory constitutes an expansion of the 'canvas of rationality', and, consequently, of the range of psychological phenomena which are amenable to mathematical analysis. For example, we may assign relevancies not only to questions, but also to the messages that are communicated to us by some source of information. The relevancy of a message represents the usefulness of that message, when received, in determining some issue of interest. By assigning a relevancy to the message, we indirectly assign a relevancy to the sources of information itself; possible examples of sources of information being the media, scientists, and governmental institutions. In Part~III of this thesis, we will give an information theoretical analysis of a simple risk communication problem. Bayesian probability has its axiomatic roots in lattice theory, as the product and sum rule of Bayesian probability theory may be derived by way of consistency requirements on the lattice of statements. One may derive, likewise, by way of consistency requirements on the lattice of questions, the product and sum rules of Bayesian information theory. So, if we choose rationality, that is, consistency requirements on lattices, as our guiding principle in the derivation of our theories of inference, then we get on the one hand a Bayesian probability theory, with as its specific application a Bayesian decision theory, and on the other hand we get a Bayesian information theory. In doing so, we obtain a comprehensive, coherent, and powerful framework with which to model human reasoning, in the widest sense. @en

Een exploratieve studie naar de financieel-economische implicaties van de invoering van een baten-lastenstelsel bij de Nederlandse Rijksoverheid voor de instandhouding van civieltechnische netwerken. Doel is om als professioneel opdrachtgever op basis van bedrijfseconomische beginselen de instandhoudingsactiviteiten optimaal te sturen. Hiermee kan een infrastructuurnetwerk effectief en efficiënt blijven voldoen aan de maatschappelijke wensen en behoeften naar vervoer en transport. @en