The global impacts of disaster risks are on the rise. Moreover, evidence shows that the severity of damage will increase exponentially. In 2019, there were 395 natural disasters that caused 11,755 deaths. Literature and practice indicate that diversification of disaster risk management (DRM) approaches can make communities more resilient. One notable bottleneck in adopting diverse DRM approaches is the historical dominance of natural and technological sciences with little contribution from social sciences. Thus, a heterogeneous social-technical approach to DRM is rare and risk governance challenges are hardly understood. We conducted a systematic literature and practice review and extracted data to develop and answer five sub-questions. After that, we reviewed relevant information and selected eight risk evaluation approaches. We made comparisons and used the input to design the Risk Evaluation Diversity-aiding Approach (RED-A). The approach consists of 12 criteria and a checklist with 22 items. RED-A provides guidance to DRM researchers and practitioners when conducting socio-technical risk evaluations. It helps identify cognitive biases in the ongoing DRM process that may largely impact the quality of risk evaluation procedures. The goal of the 22-item checklist is to ensure that the 12 RED-A criteria are incorporated as much as possible to support the progressive transition towards a heterogeneous social-technical DRM approach. Finally, the RED-A criteria and checklist are applied in the Solotvyno municipality context (in Ukraine), to illustrate the use of the approach.

The Kenyan government has made significant advances in water resources management at the local authority (county) level with little or no cooperation at the drainage basin level. Research on critical determinants of cooperation amongst transboundary water negotiation teams is limited. In this paper, we assess whether personal attribute diversity (PAD) is a stronger factor than demographic diversity (gender, age, and education play) in determining whether the negotiation team will cooperate or make unilateral actions. We use a negotiation game to study decisions taken by water policymakers. After that, we conduct a multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) to assess the influence of PAD, gender, age, and education on water negotiation outcomes. The findings indicate that PAD plays a significant role in determining whether the group will cooperate or compete. Gender, education, and age barely influence the outcome. Only upon removal of the PAD variable do we see an increase in the discriminant power of gender and education. Age has minimal influence on the negotiation outcomes. We apply the research at a lower level of governance (Nzoia River Basin). However, results might be extrapolated to a bigger basin, like the Nile Basin, through future multiple level analysis which takes account of the complex socio-technical systems.

Complex and uncertain societal problems cannot be addressed by technical solutions that rely solely on predictions. Institutions that entirely rely on predictions, repeat the same actions (routine), with little reflection on the impact of these technological solutions upon the socio-technical system. Though routine is beneficial for stability and continuity of any institution, it may stifle reflection and make it harder for change. When an institution does not change, it cannot innovate nor adapt to changing circumstances.

Social learning (SL) has been proposed to facilitate institutional change. SL is a change in societal understanding, achieved through social interactions, which eventually gets situated within broader social networks. In principle, SL holds a promise in addressing the problem of routinised, non-adaptive institutions. Nevertheless, there is limited evidence on whether SL does indeed lead to institutional change.

This PhD research uses policy gaming to assess whether SL can lead to institutional change in the Nzoia River Basin. The results indicate that SL has the potential to change routine-based institutions and generate adaptive capacity. The outcomes also indicate the need for the following profound institutional changes in Nzoia River Basin:

Artefacts: Replace current WRM structures with configurations that respect the river, and support the sustainable management of the drainage basin, as a whole.

Values: Value water more than spatial, agricultural and energy-production plans and make water the structuring element within the Nzoia River Basin. This means that any proposed laws, regulations, practices and norms that intend to utilise the scarce water resources unsustainably should not be supported.

Underlying Assumptions: Question underlying assumptions, and make transformations to existing laws, regulations, values, norms and actor-networks to build adaptive capacity.

Kenya Water Services Regulatory Board (WASREB) Impact Report indicates a stagnation in water coverage at 55 percent, for the last three years, contrary to the 2015 target of 80 percent. One main reason for the stagnation is weak cross-county cooperation between hydrologically interdependent governments. WASREB has little guidance on what indicators to use to enhance cross-county water cooperation. Through literature review, we assess whether the UN-Water methodology for assessing Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) 6.5.2 would provide useful guidelines. Based on the literature review outcomes, we design a water policy game known as Nzoia WeShareIt. After that, we play seven-game sessions in four county governments (Busia, Bungoma, Kakamega, and Trans Nzoia), on 11-22 July 2016. We use the in-game and post-game questionnaire data to measure learning outcomes on interdependence and cooperation. The findings indicate that Nzoia WeShareIt policy game as a form of experiential learning increased understanding on the value of cross-county cooperation. The study constitutes a practical guideline to WASREB and a quick reference tool to be explored when designing indicators to monitor cross-county cooperation. We also propose a mixed method approach that incorporates team interdependence indicators as distinct and separate indicators from cooperation. Moreover, we recommend strengthening SDG 6.5.2 indicator to measure transboundary water cooperation inputs, processes and outcomes.

In early 2016, we designed Nzoia WeShareIt game to support joint decision-making, in a complex river basin, through policy practice in the form of water allocation trade-offs between food, energy, and nature. Nzoia WeShareIt game is a multi-player hybrid cooperation game. This concept report is a detailed description of the Nzoia WeShareIt game elements and their application. The report comprises of four main parts: the introduction, the body which details the game elements, a section dealing with the publications, which is the main project outcome and the appendices. In this report, the game elements section consists of fifteen parts. The first part is the introduction, followed by a description of the fourteen game elements. Two critical components of the game elements section are the explanation of the game contents and the game cycles including the steps of play. The five steps of play are harvest, trade, payment of the penalty, invest and re-allocate. The appendices comprise of three parts: an explanation of the transition from BIOMAdneSS to WeShareIt, a detailed description of the changes we made when transitioning to Nile and Nzoia WeShareIt and a picture collage. The picture collage consists of various pictures of the Nile WeShareIt session and the seven Nzoia WeShareIt game sessions. Finally, we provide a list of bibliography.

The Paris Agreement was a monumental stride towards global climate change governance. It unlocked the climate change gridlock, introducing country-subjective commitments and a five-year review mechanism. To support the implementation of the Paris Agreement, we designed the Nzoia WeShareIt climate change game. Game sessions were conducted in June and July 2015, and 35 respondents completed a pre- and post-game situation awareness (SA) questionnaire and an in-game performance measurement system. The questionnaire uses a 10-dimensional situation awareness rating technique (SART). Subsequently, we conducted a factorial MANOVA (multivariate analysis of variance) to assess the interaction effects between familiarity, team, and gender. Results indicate an increase in situation awareness. However, policymakers' action was not contingent on the increased SA only, there was a significant interaction effect between familiarity and SA, to lead to climate change actions. Therefore, we recommend more emphasis on the role of familiarity in enhancing SA and, subsequently, supporting the implementation to the Paris five-year review country commitments. We also recommend the increased usage of symbols and capacity development of policymakers on connective capacity to enable them to span the climate change boundaries.

The Horizon 2020 interim evaluation (2017) indicates a steep increase in citizen engagement in European Union Citizen Science (CS) projects, with less than 1% in budgetary terms and minimal influence. Research findings attribute weak CS influence to the restriction of citizen actions to data collection, with minimal or no engagement in co-design, co-creation, data analysis, and elucidation of results. We design a participatory GIS and CS methodology aimed at engaging the citizens in the entire Earth Observation (EO) project cycle. The methodology also seeks to address previous CS project challenges related to data quality, data interoperability, citizen-motivation, and participation. We draw the high-level requirements from the SENDAI framework of action and the three pillars of active citizen engagement, as enshrined in Principle 10 of the Rio Declaration and the Aarhus Convention. The primary input of the methodology is the Haklay (2018) approach for participatory mapping and CS, and the Reed (2009) stakeholder analysis framework. The proposed methodology comprises of three main parts: system analysis, stakeholder analysis, and a six-step methodology. We designed the six-step methodology using an iterative and flexible approach, to take account of unforeseen changes. Future research will focus on implementing the methodology and evaluating its effectiveness in the Solotvyno Saltmine case study in Ukraine.

Nzoia river basin county governments barely cooperate in water resources management to jointly increase the basin's food and energy productivity levels, due to limited trust. In this paper, we propose a game-based approach that can be replicated in any river basin, to assess trust and collaboration processes. In particular, we used the pre-game, in-game, and post-game assessment results to assess the relationship between Cooperation and Competition; Trust and Trustworthiness; Trust and Distrust; and (Dis) trust, Complexity, and Uncertainty. The initial assessment of respondents' propensity to trust (PTS) was divided into two variables (trust and trustworthiness) while adopting the unidimensional view of trust and distrust. We later examined whether we could separate the two constructs using a multidimensional scaling (MDS) technique known as the ALSCAL procedure. There are potentially significant results. Namely, that: trustworthiness and trust are not complementary; both cooperation and competition coexisted and increased throughout the game; more profound complexity and uncertainty led to an increment in trust, and reduced complexity and uncertainty led to a decrease in distrust. Based on the results and discussions, we provide recommendations for further research on trust, trustworthiness, and distrust in the river basin management context.

Equitable and reasonable utilization is a core principle in the distribution of water resources. However, its practical application in the Nile Basin has been a significant challenge, leading to a water allocation deadlock. To address the deadlock, we used the van Eeten (1999) four-step process for defining new agendas. To reconstruct the debate, nine possible water allocation methods are developed using the Stone (2002) framework. After that, the arguments are compared and contrasted using interpretative policy analysis and the relevant factors to determine equitable and reasonable utilization in the Nile basin. Unfortunately, none of the nine possible water allocation methods satisfied all of the factors of assessing equitable and reasonable utilization. Therefore, we identified a crosswalk position that combines three water allocation methods. This combination consists of: (1) a group-based distribution; (2) a value-based distribution; and (3) a consensus-based distribution. Since the crosswalk position does not address current and potential uses, we recommend a new agenda to recast the issue. This agenda entails a change in the recipient of the water resources, the allocated item, and the process of decision-making. Finally, we discuss the potential of applying the proposed methodology in Nile sub-basins and other river basins within Sub-Saharan Africa.

The Nile river traverses eleven countries in Africa. It is the source of life for millions of people and its aquifers, tributaries, lakes, and surface waters provide valuable nature (wetlands), drinking water, hydropower and it provides large areas of arid soils with irrigation water. Rapid urbanization, overexploitation and the construction of dams are leading to changes in the water regime and affect the quality of the ecosystems services. A participatory scenario building exercise was held in Jinja Uganda in 2014. This approach resulted in four scenarios for the future of the basin presented to the Ministers at the Nile Basin Development Forum in 2015. In this paper the scenario method, the resulting four scenarios and their impacts are presented.

As a leading thinker on water management in East Africa, Abby Onencan became a proponent of serious gaming. She is now a research fellow at Delft University, working on a third generation game for water distribution policymaking. Pilot projects in the Nzoia watershed show that gaming enhances cooperation – it can do the same for Kenya, the Nile basin, and, perhaps, the entire continent.

In this paper, we explore how a climate change game can be designed to enhance trans-boundary water partnerships between governments and provide a window of opportunity to challenge the status quo, leading to change. The primary focus of the paper is to discuss a theoretical framework that utilizes “Disaster Diplomacy” as a pre-disaster capacity development tool for policymakers. The Nile Basin by 2050 scenarios, guided us in the design of the theoretical framework. The framework established a foundation for the design of the climate change game known as Nile WeShareIt. This game was played in October 2014, with policymakers from the Ministry of Water and Irrigation, in Nairobi, Kenya. Findings indicate that climate change games may challenge the current perceptions of normality and possibly lead to increased situation awareness, trust, and collaboration. Future work will entail redesigning the game, based on the initial outcomes and its application in the river Nzoia catchment, in West-Kenya.

Hybrid board games draw benefits from both the digital and physical worlds. They increase social interaction and provide an enjoyable, seamless experience. Nevertheless, hybrid artefacts do not fit snugly into established game genres, leading to ambiguity regarding the selection of measurement tools. To address this challenge, a video game assessment framework, as outlined in Beatty (2014), was selected. It has a generic template, four dimensions with their respective templates (macro-level, micro-level, builder meta-level and social meta-level) and two feedback loops. This framework was applied from April to August 2016 in Kenya, to assess the learning outcomes of the Nzoia WeShareIt game. Results indicate that the framework could provide a solution for assessing hybrid board games, subject to some adjustments, as outlined in this paper. Future work may entail application of the framework, in other drainage basins.

Every 2 to 7 years, Kenya experiences a reoccurrence of El-Niño rains leading to loss of life and massive damage to property. The 1997/98 El-Niño floods affected 1.5 million persons and led to an estimated USD 1.2 billion infrastructural damage, USD 236 million agricultural damage and USD 9 million on other losses (property, soil erosion, pollution). Recent rains in October 2015 to January 2016 left 112 Kenyans dead and over 100,000 internally displaced. The Kenyan Government predictions indicate that the number of affected persons will be approximately 1,500,000, before 2018. Despite the numerous exposures to floods, Kenyan communities' resilience to floods risks is weak. Traditional crisis management approaches have not been successful in enhancing citizen capacity in flood prevention and preparedness. In addition, the past flood forecasts have not played a key role, as early warning advisories. To address these complexities, we propose a location-based game so as to create a positive learning environment and increase territory awareness, collaboration and soft skills, which are necessary for flood preparedness. Moreover, through playing the game, we hope that social learning for joint action will be enhanced. The game is known as "MAFURIKO" which is a Swahili word for floods. Through MAFURIKO, the citizens may learn basic flood prevention and preparedness procedures, may begin to see their predicament differently and may also identify opportunities which remain untapped. In this paper, we outline a theoretical framework and preliminary MAFURIKO game design specifications for the Nzoia sub-basin of the Lake Victoria Basin, in Kenya. MAFURIKO is intended to enhance the capacity of Kenyan citizens on flood risk reduction, so that they can work with the Kenyan Government to prevent and prepare for future floods. Future work will entail completion, staging and application of the location based game.

Nile Basin policy makers, at all levels, are constantly making quick decisions to address emergencies. The decisions are made in the context of a complex, uncertain, ever-changing and highly volatile basin. However, for these decisions to take into account future uncertainties, like climate-change induced disasters, policy makers need to enhance their capacity in strategic foresight. Strategic foresight helps them make more robust decisions that take into account deep uncertainties and thus buffer the basin from future natural disasters. The authors explore the contribution of serious gaming in enhancing the Nile Basin policy makers' capacity on strategic foresight. They present the findings from the application of a game-based, experimental study of a serious game known as WeShareIt. WeShareIt was played in Nairobi on 22 October 2015 by 11 participants from the Kenyan Ministry of Water and Irrigation and Moi University Centre for Public Sector Reforms. Data on the added value and contribution of the game to increased strategic foresight and disaster risk reduction were collected using pre-game, in-game and post-game questionnaires, together with a debriefing session and observations. The analysis shows that strategic foresight is an important element for effective disaster risk reduction. Observations in the game-based intervention provided evidence that the participants engaged in short term quick decision making and were not prepared for life-threatening natural disasters. The results of the experiment support the conclusion that serious gaming may be an effective and promising method for enhancing the capacity of policy makers on strategic foresight so as to prepare them for future climate induced natural disasters.

Scenarios are valuable tools that could support decision making under deep uncertainty, nevertheless, their potential remains untapped. The paper explores whether participatory scenario construction in the form of stories coupled with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2100 projections may contribute to increased utility of the scenarios and projections for climate-induced risk reduction, in the Nile Basin. The Nile River is 6,695 kilometres long and covers a basin area of 3.18 million square kilometres (one-tenth of the African land mass). The basin is highly susceptible to climate-change induced disasters. According to the IPCC, there is high confidence that the Basin will suffer from severe shifts in biome distribution, compounded water stress, degradation of marine life and reduced crop productivity. There is also medium confidence that the Nile Basin will experience: severe decline in livestock, significant increase in vector and water-borne diseases, undernutrition, increased migration and sea level rise. The basin is already experiencing some of these key risks, on the other hand, their impact in the next 30 to 35 years is deeply uncertain. The findings of this paper are based on four scenarios, namely: Kazuri, Miskeen, Umoja and EjoHeza and data collected from two forums that were held in Jinja, Uganda and Nairobi, Kenya. The forum participants were a multi-disciplinary team of national and international stakeholders. The paper concludes that coupling Nile Basin storylines with the IPCC 2100 projections, proved to be an effective tool in increasing the utility of the scenarios and projections, for purposes of disaster risk reduction. Future work will entail analysing the uptake of the scenarios to resolve deadlocks and enhance cooperation.