Failure prediction models can be significantly beneficial for managing large-scale complex software systems, but their trustworthiness is severely affected by changes in the data over time, also known as concept drift. Thus, monitoring these models against concept drift and retraining them when the data changes becomes crucial in designing reliable failure prediction models. In this work, we evaluate the effects of monitoring failure prediction models over time using label-independent (unsupervised) drift detectors. We show that retraining based on unsupervised drift detectors instead of periodically reduces the cost of acquiring true labels without compromising accuracy. Furthermore, we propose a novel feature reduction for unsupervised drift detectors and an evaluation pipeline that practitioners can employ to select the most suitable unsupervised drift detector for their application.

The reliability of machine learning (ML) software systems is heavily influenced by changes in data over time. For that reason, ML systems require regular maintenance, typically based on model retraining. However, retraining requires significant computational demand, which makes it energy-intensive and raises concerns about its environmental impact. To understand which retraining techniques should be considered when designing sustainable ML applications, in this work, we study the energy consumption of common retraining techniques. Since the accuracy of ML systems is also essential, we compare retraining techniques in terms of both energy efficiency and accuracy. We showcase that retraining with only the most recent data compared to all available data reduces energy consumption by up to 25%, being a sustainable alternative to the status quo. Furthermore, our findings show that retraining a model only when there is evidence that updates are necessary, rather than on a fixed schedule, can reduce energy consumption by up to 40%, provided a reliable data change detector is in place. Our findings pave the way for better recommendations for ML practitioners, guiding them toward more energy-efficient retraining techniques when designing sustainable ML software systems.

Capacity management is critical for software organizations to allocate resources effectively and meet operational demands. An important step in capacity management is predicting future resource needs often relies on data-driven analytics and machine learning (ML) forecasting models, which require frequent retraining to stay relevant as data evolves. Continuously retraining the forecasting models can be expensive and difficult to scale, posing a challenge for engineering teams tasked with balancing accuracy and efficiency. Retraining only when the data changes appears to be a more computationally efficient alternative, but its impact on accuracy requires further investigation. In this work, we investigate the effects of retraining capacity forecasting models for time series based on detected changes in the data compared to periodic retraining. Our results show that drift-based retraining achieves comparable forecasting accuracy to periodic retraining in most cases, making it a costeffective strategy. However, in cases where data is changing rapidly, periodic retraining is still preferred to maximize the forecasting accuracy. These findings offer actionable insights for software teams to enhance forecasting systems, reducing retraining overhead while maintaining robust performance.

Effective change management is crucial for businesses heavily reliant on software and services to minimise incidents induced by changes. Unfortunately, in practice it is often difficult to effectively use artificial intelligence for IT Operations (AIOps) to enhance service management, primarily due to inadequate data quality. Establishing reliable links between changes and the induced incidents is crucial for identifying patterns, improving change deployment, identifying high-risk changes, and enhancing incident response. In this research, we investigate the enhancement of traceability between changes and incidents through AIOps methods. Our approach involves a close examination of incident-inducing changes, the replication of methods linking incidents to the changes that caused them, introducing an adapted method, and demonstrating its results using historical data and practical evaluations. Our findings reveal that incident-inducing changes exhibit different characteristics dependent on context. Furthermore, a significant disparity exists between assessments based on historical data and real-world observation, with an increased occurrence of false positives when identifying links between unlabeled changes and incidents. This study highlights the complex nature of identifying links between changes and incidents, emphasising the contextual influence on AIOps method effectiveness. While we are actively working on improving the quality of current data through AIOps approaches, it remains apparent that further measures are necessary to address issues like data imbalances and promote a postmortem culture that brings attention to the value of properly administrating tickets. A better overview of change failure rates contributes to improved risk compliance and reliable change management.

Counterfactual explanations offer an intuitive and straightforward way to explain black-box models and offer algorithmic recourse to individuals. To address the need for plausible explanations, existing work has primarily relied on surrogate models to learn how the input data is distributed. This effectively reallocates the task of learning realistic explanations for the data from the model itself to the surrogate. Consequently, the generated explanations may seem plausible to humans but need not necessarily describe the behaviour of the black-box model faithfully. We formalize this notion of faithfulness through the introduction of a tailored evaluation metric and propose a novel algorithmic framework for generating Energy-Constrained Conformal Counterfactuals that are only as plausible as the model permits. Through extensive empirical studies, we demonstrate that ECCCo reconciles the need for faithfulness and plausibility. In particular, we show that for models with gradient access, it is possible to achieve state-of-the-art performance without the need for surrogate models. To do so, our framework relies solely on properties defining the black-box model itself by leveraging recent advances in energy-based modelling and conformal prediction. To our knowledge, this is the first venture in this direction for generating faithful counterfactual explanations. Thus, we anticipate that ECCCo can serve as a baseline for future research. We believe that our work opens avenues for researchers and practitioners seeking tools to better distinguish trustworthy from unreliable models.

Although several fairness definitions and bias mitigation techniques exist in the literature, all existing solutions evaluate fairness of Machine Learning (ML) systems after the training stage. In this paper, we take the first steps towards evaluating a more holistic approach by testing for fairness both before and after model training. We evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed approach and position it within the ML development lifecycle, using an empirical analysis of the relationship between model dependent and independent fairness metrics. The study uses 2 fairness metrics, 4 ML algorithms, 5 real-world datasets and 1600 fairness evaluation cycles. We find a linear relationship between data and model fairness metrics when the distribution and the size of the training data changes. Our results indicate that testing for fairness prior to training can be a "cheap" and effective means of catching a biased data collection process early; detecting data drifts in production systems and minimising execution of full training cycles thus reducing development time and costs.

Sprint planning is essential for the successful execution of agile software projects. While various prioritization criteria influence the selection of user stories for sprint planning, their relative importance remains largely unexplored, especially across different project contexts. In this paper, we investigate how prioritization criteria vary across project settings and propose a model for generating sprint plans that are tailored to the context of individual teams. Through a survey conducted at ING, we identify urgency, sprint goal alignment, and business value as the top prioritization criteria, influenced by project factors such as resource availability and client type. These results highlight the need for contextual support in sprint planning. To address this need, we develop an optimization model that generates sprint plans aligned with the specific goals and performance of a team. By integrating teams' planning objectives and sprint history, the model adapts to unique team contexts, estimating prioritization criteria and identifying patterns in planning behavior. We apply our approach to real-world data from 4,841 sprints at ING, demonstrating significant improvements in team alignment and sprint plan effectiveness. Our model boosts team performance by generating plans that deliver more business value, align more closely with sprint goals, and better mitigate delay risks. Overall, our results show that the efficiency and outcomes of sprint planning practices can be significantly improved through the use of context-aware optimization methods.

Anomaly detection techniques are essential in automating the monitoring of IT systems and operations. These techniques imply that machine learning algorithms are trained on operational data corresponding to a specific period of time and that they are continuously evaluated on newly emerging data. Operational data is constantly changing over time, which affects the performance of deployed anomaly detection models. Therefore, continuous model maintenance is required to preserve the performance of anomaly detectors over time. In this work, we analyze two different anomaly detection model maintenance techniques in terms of the model update frequency, namely blind model retraining and informed model retraining. We further investigate the effects of updating the model by retraining it on all the available data (full-history approach) and only the newest data (sliding window approach). Moreover, we investigate whether a data change monitoring tool is capable of determining when the anomaly detection model needs to be updated through retraining.

Deployed machine learning systems often suffer from accuracy degradation over time generated by constant data shifts, also known as concept drift. Therefore, these systems require regular maintenance, in which the machine learning model needs to be adapted to concept drift. The literature presents plenty of model adaptation techniques. The most common technique is periodically executing the whole training pipeline with all the data gathered until a particular point in time, yielding a massive energy footprint. In this paper, we propose a research path that uses concept drift detection and adaptation to enable sustainable AI systems.