Forecasting the occurrence of natural hazards, such as earthquakes or landslides, remain very challenging. These hazards are often caused by stress changes in the subsurface, therefore detecting and monitoring these changes can help the prediction and mitigation. Active ultrasonic transmission experiments were performed on Red Pfaelzer sandstones to investigate the monitoring and forecasting potential of these measurements. The sandstone samples were loaded until failure at different initial confining stress conditions. The forecasting potential to failure of different analysis methods, such as coda wave interferometry or wave attenuation, is investigated and compared. Our results show we can detect the forecast the upcoming failure of the samples from 40 to 70% of its failure point. Small differences between each analysis method are visible, but the trend of the signal is leading and therefore a robust prediction of failure can be made by combining analysis methods. In this paper, we propose a traffic light forecasting system using the precursory signals from ultrasonic monitoring. This system is applicable for monitoring failure at various depths and or stress conditions, for a better prediction of small stress-induced changes in the subsurface and thus mitigation of failure (natural hazards) in the subsurface.

Induced earthquakes are still highly unpredictable, and often caused by variations in pore fluid pressure. Monitoring and understanding the mechanisms of fluid-induced fault slip is essential for seismic risk mitigation and seismicity forecasting. Fluid-induced slip experiments were performed on critically stressed faulted sandstone samples, and the evolution of the actively sent ultrasonic waves throughout the experiment was measured. Two different fault types were used: smooth saw-cut fault samples at a 35° angle, and a rough fault created by in situ faulting of the samples. Variations in the seismic slip velocity and friction along the fault plane were identified by the coda of the ultrasonic waves. Additionally, ultrasonic amplitudes show precursory signals to laboratory fault reactivation. Our results show that small and local variations in stress before fault failure can be inferred using coda wave interferometry for time-lapse monitoring, as coda waves are more sensitive to small perturbations in a medium than direct waves. Hence, these signals can be used as precursors to laboratory fault slip and to give insight into reactivation mechanisms. Our results show that time-lapse monitoring of coda waves can be used to monitor local stress changes associated with fault reactivation in this laboratory setting of fluid-induced fault reactivation. This is a critical first step toward a method for continuous monitoring of natural fault zones, contributing to seismic risk mitigation of induced and natural earthquakes.

Seismic interferometry (SI) retrieves new seismic responses, for example reflections, between either receivers or sources. When SI is applied to a reflection survey with active sources and receivers at the surface, non-physical (ghost) reflections are retrieved as well. Ghost reflections, retrieved from the correlation of two primary reflections or multiples from two different depth levels, are only sensitive to the properties in the layer that cause them to appear in the result of SI, such as velocity, density and thickness. We aim to use these ghost reflections for monitoring subsurface changes, to address challenges associated with detecting and isolating changes within the target layer in monitoring. We focus on the feasibility of monitoring pore-pressure changes in the Groningen gas field in the Netherlands using ghost reflections. To achieve this, we utilize numerical modelling to simulate scalar reflection data, deploying sources and receivers at the surface. To build up subsurface models for monitoring purposes, we perform an ultrasonic transmission laboratory experiment to measure S-wave velocities at different pore pressures. Applying SI by autocorrelation to the modelled data sets, we retrieve zero-offset ghost reflections. Using a correlation operator, we determine time differences between a baseline survey and monitoring surveys. To enhance the ability to detect small changes, we propose subsampling the ghost reflections before the correlation operator and using only virtual sources with a complete illumination of receivers. We demonstrate that the retrieved time differences between the ghost reflections exhibit variations corresponding to velocity changes inside the reservoir. This highlights the potential of ghost reflections as valuable indicators for monitoring even small changes. We also investigate the effect of the sources and receivers’ geometry and spacing and the number of virtual sources and receivers in retrieving ghost reflections with high interpretability resolution.

Recent laboratory and field studies suggest that temporal variations in injection patterns (e.g., cyclic injection) might trigger less seismicity than constant monotonic injection. This study presents results from uniaxial compressive experiments performed on Red Felser sandstone samples providing new information on the effect of stress pattern and rate on seismicity evolution. Red Felser sandstone samples were subjected to three stress patterns: cyclic recursive, cyclic progressive (CP), and monotonic stress. Three different stress rates (displacement controlled) were also applied: low, medium, and high rates of 10⁻⁴ mm/s, 5 × 10⁻⁴ mm/s, and 5 × 10⁻³ mm/s, respectively. Acoustic emission (AE) waveforms were recorded throughout the experiments using 11 AE transducers placed around the sample. Microseismicity analysis shows that (i) Cyclic stress patterns and especially cyclic progressive ones are characterized by a high number of AE events and lower maximum AE amplitude, (ii) among the three different stress patterns, the largest b-value (slope of the log frequency-magnitude distribution) resulted from the cyclic progressive (CP) stress pattern, (iii) by reducing the stress rate, the maximum AE energy and final mechanical strength both decrease significantly. In addition, stress rate remarkably affects the detailed AE signature of the events classified by the distribution of events in the average frequency (AF)—rise angle (RA) space. High stress rates increase the number of events with low AF and high RA signatures. Considering all elements of the AE analysis, it can be concluded that applying cyclic stress patterns in combination with low-stress rates may potentially lead to a more favourable induced seismicity effect in subsurface-related injection operations.

Over the last few years, several experimental and numerical studies have investigated the mitigation and managing of fluid injection-induced seismicity. A cyclic fluid injection has been suggested to have a different seismic response than a monotonic injection, and a cyclic injection may cause less seismicity. However, most studies have been allocated for intact rock medium (not faulted). In this study, faulted (saw-cut) Red Pfaelzer sandstones were subjected to fault reactivation experiments to investigate the effect of stress cycling on seismicity evolution. During the stress-driven fault reactivation experiments, three different reactivation scenarios were carried out: continuous sliding, cyclic sliding, and under-threshold cycling sliding. The results showed that in comparison to continuous sliding, cyclic sliding triggers less seismicity in terms of b-value and significant AE events due to the uniform reduction in roughness and asperities on the fault plane. In addition, increasing the number of cycles decreases the number of AE events. The under-threshold cycling strategy prevents seismicity and pure shear slip; however, if the stress exceeds the previous maximum stress (critical), seismicity risk increases drastically in terms of b-value, maximum AE energy, and magnitude.