The contribution of tidal trapping to salt dispersion has been well described for well-mixed estuaries, in terms of barotropic filling and emptying of the traps. How traps contribute to salt dispersion in deeper, partially stratified systems remains underexplored. We investigate the dispersive effect of temporary storage of saltwater in harbors adjacent to a partially stratified estuary using field observations and numerical modeling. Our results show that instantaneous channel–harbor salt exchange is dominated by density-driven exchange flows arising from baroclinic pressure gradients between the channel and the harbors. This pressure gradient, and consequently the exchange flow, reverses during the tide due to tidal variations in main-channel salinity. Quantification of the trapping-induced additional salt transport from individual basins reveals substantial differences in contributions of individual basins. These differences are linked to a region in the main channel where the tidal salinity range has a minimum, thus limiting the set-up of baroclinic pressure gradients, reducing exchange flow strength and tidal trapping. Analysis of the density-driven exchange reveals that it scales with the tidal salinity range raised to the power 3/2. Using this relationship, we derive an expression for the dispersion coefficient associated with density-driven tidal trapping. This formulation indicates that the resulting dispersion is governed by the main-channel tidal excursion length and the propagation speed of the density current within the trap, and that the dispersion coefficient scales with the square root of the along-channel salinity gradient, in contrast to tidal trapping driven by basin filling and emptying, which is independent of this gradient.

Natural estuarine morphology exerts strong control over tidal propagation. Human activities, such as dredging and land reclamation, modify the natural geometry, altering tidal dynamics and the ecosystems linked to them. Here we analyse changes in tidal dynamics, specifically the amplitude and propagation of tides, over decadal to centennial timescales, using archival maps, hydrographic surveys, tide gauge records and modern records from 25 estuaries worldwide, spanning the coast to their landward boundaries. Over the past two centuries, local interventions have typically amplified tidal ranges, accelerated tidal propagation and shifted tidal duration asymmetry. The most pronounced changes occurred far inland, often more than 100 km from the coast. Land reclamation and channel deepening are the most widespread and impactful interventions, affecting nearly all systems studied. The magnitude and inland location of maximum changes point to local human activities as the dominant drivers, exceeding the influence of long-term processes such as sea-level rise and natural subsidence and demonstrating that anthropogenic modifications have historically had the larger influence on estuarine water levels. Recognizing this human footprint opens opportunities for targeted local management strategies to reverse past changes, reduce flood risk and build resilience to climate change.

In this paper, we introduce a physics-inspired harmonic regression model to capture the nonstationary salinity dynamics at monitoring stations in well-mixed estuarine systems. Building on existing hybrid harmonic regression approaches, which modify the classical harmonic analysis to cope with nonstationary signals to predict tidal water levels, our model captures tidal and subtidal salinity variations using a simplified analytical salt intrusion model. The harmonic regression model was tested in the well-mixed Ems and Scheldt estuaries using data sets spanning 2–4 years, explaining 87.4%–96.4% of the observed salinity variance at upstream stations. A key finding is that storm surge effects typically have longer wavelengths than the estuary's length scale, which justifies using a linear relation between vertical and horizontal excursions. In alluvial estuaries, where the system widens, unsteadiness of the river discharge shows to be increasingly important for more downstream stations. The model quantifies the characteristic response time of salinity to variation in discharge. Based on a critical evaluation of the model equations, we offer a physical interpretation of the optimized parameters. Specifically, we discuss the Van der Burgh constant, which is an empirical coefficient commonly used in salt intrusion models. Our findings reveal that the Van der Burgh coefficient scales with the spatial scales of dispersion and advection, relative to changes in channel geometry.

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and magnitude of river floods ¹. Floods not only cause damage by inundation and loss of life ^2,3 but also jeopardize infrastructure because of bank failure and riverbed erosion processes that are poorly understood. Common flood safety programmes include dyke reinforcement and river widening ^{4, 5, 6, 7, 8–9}. The 2021 flood in the Meuse Basin caused 43 fatalities and billions of dollars of damage to infrastructure ¹⁰. Here, on the basis of analysis of the Meuse flood, we show how uneven widening of the river and heterogeneity of sediment deposits under the river can cause massive erosion. A recent flood safety programme widened the river ¹¹, but created bottlenecks where widening was either prevented by infrastructure or not yet implemented. Riverbed erosion was exacerbated by tectonic uplift that had produced a thin top gravel layer above fine-grained sediment. Greatly enhanced flow velocities produced underwater dunes with troughs that broke through the gravel armour in the bottlenecks, exposing easily erodible sands, resulting in extreme scour holes, one more than 15 m deep. Our investigation highlights the challenges of re-engineering rivers in the face of climate change, increased flood risks and competition for river widening space, and calls for a better understanding of the subsurface.

In well-mixed estuaries, the up-estuary salt flux is often dominated by tidal dispersion mechanisms, including tidal trapping. Tidal trapping involves volumes of water being temporarily trapped in dead zones or side channels adjacent to the main channel and released later in the tidal cycle, which causes an additional up-estuary salt flux. Tidal trapping can result from a diffusive exchange between a channel and a trap, or from filling and emptying of the trap by a tidal flow that is ahead in phase compared to the flow in the main channel (advective out-of-phase exchange). This study revisits the dispersive contribution from tidal trapping in a single dead-end side channel using an idealized numerical model. The results indicate that advective out-of-phase exchange yields the largest additional salt flux for the largest realistic velocity phase difference of 90∘. Mixing of the trapped salinity field enhances the dispersive effect for small velocity phase differences. A continuous diffusive channel-trap exchange also enhances the dispersive trap effect when the velocity phase difference is small, but can dampen it when the phase difference is large. We demonstrate that the effect of a trap is twofold: firstly, channel-trap exchange alters the salinity field and introduces an additional salt flux in the main channel over a distance equal to the tidal excursion length; secondly, the altered salinity gradients are advected in both up- and down-estuary direction, influencing the tidal salt flux over twice the excursion length.

Recent research highlights the abundance of floccule (flocs) in rivers, formed by aggregation of clay particles with organic matter. These flocs affect the transport and the eventual fate of clay. Flocs exhibit distinct behaviour from the unflocculated sedimentary counterparts: they can deform and break, and have higher settling velocities, which may in turn cause flocs to deposit and possibly interact with the riverbed. Here, we conducted systematic experiments in a laboratory flume to identify the mechanisms by which flocs and bedforms interact. Flocs showed a saltating (bouncing) behaviour, and were incorporated in the sediment bed as single flocs, clusters, or strings, via deposition and burial in the lee of a dune. Dune geometry was negligibly impacted by the presence of flocs. In natural systems, the burial of flocculated clay particles can affect contaminant spreading, aquatic ecology, the interpretation of deposition patterns, and clay transport.

Sustainable river management often requires long-term morphological simulations. As the future is unknown, uncertainty needs to be accounted for, which may require probabilistic simulations covering a large parameter domain. Even for one-dimensional models, simulation times can be long. One of the acceleration strategies is simplification of models by neglecting terms in the governing hydrodynamic equations. Examples are the quasi-steady model and the diffusive wave model, both widely used by scientists and practitioners. Here, we establish under which conditions these simplified models are accurate. Based on results of linear stability analyses of the St. Venant-Exner equations, we assess migration celerities and damping of infinitesimal, but long riverbed perturbations. We did this for the full dynamic model, that is, no terms neglected, as well as for the simplified models. The accuracy of the simplified models was obtained from comparison between the characteristics of the riverbed perturbations for simplified models and the full dynamic model. We executed a spatial-mode and a temporal-mode linear analysis and compared the results with numerical modeling results for the full dynamic and simplified models, for very small and large bed waves. The numerical results match best with the temporal-mode linear analysis. We show that the quasi-steady model is highly accurate for Froude numbers up to 0.7, probably even for long river reaches with large flood wave damping. Although the diffusive wave model accurately predicts flood wave migration and damping, key morphological metrics deviate more than 5% (10%) from the full dynamic model when Froude numbers exceed 0.2 (0.3).

Intratidal variability in stratification, referred to as internal tidal asymmetry, affects the residual sediment flux of an estuary by altering sediment transport differently during ebb and flood. Although earlier studies suggest that flood-dominant mixing increases the residual landward sediment flux, the role of ebb-dominant mixing remains largely unknown. Based on field data, we investigate the mechanisms that cause ebb-dominant mixing and its effect on the residual sediment flux in a stratified estuarine channel. Observations based on two tidal cycles show that the pycnocline remains largely intact during flood. Vertical mixing during flood is inhibited by a strong fresh water outflow, confining landward transport of suspended sediment to the bottom layer. During ebb, the pycnocline height decreases until it interacts with the bottom boundary layer, resulting in enhanced vertical mixing and sediment transport extending further to the surface. Thus, ebb-dominant mixing increases the residual sediment flux in seaward direction. The long ebb period in combination with limited bed sediment availability further contributes to the residual ebb-flux. This is noteworthy since a long ebb duration corresponds to flood dominance, which is often associated with a landward residual sediment flux. Although our data represent average conditions and cannot readily be extrapolated to different forcing conditions, we conclude that asymmetries in vertical mixing considerably affect the residual sediment flux under average conditions.

Sustainable river management often requires long-term morphological simulations. As the future is unknown, uncertainty needs to be accounted for, which may require probabilistic simulations covering a large parameter domain. Even for one-dimensional models, simulation times can be long. One of the acceleration strategies is simplification of models by neglecting terms in the governing hydrodynamic equations. Examples are the quasi-steady model and the diffusive wave model, both widely used by scientists and practitioners. We established under which conditions these simplified and often more efficient models are accurate.

Land reclamations influence the morphodynamic evolution of estuaries and tidal basins, because an altered planform changes tidal dynamics and associated residual sediment transport. The morphodynamic response time to land reclamation is long, impacting the system for decades to centuries. Other human interventions (e.g., deepening of fairways or port construction) will add more morphodynamic adaptation timescales. Our understanding of the cumulative effects of anthropogenic interference with estuaries is limited because observations usually do not cover the complete morphological adaptation period. We aim to assess the impact of land reclamation works and other human interventions on an estuarine system by means of digital reconstructions of historical morphologies of the Ems Estuary over the past 500 years. Our analysis demonstrates that the intertidal-subtidal area ratio altered due to land reclamation works and that the ratio partly restored after land reclamation ended. The land reclamation works have led to the degeneration of an ebb and flood channel system, transitioning the estuary from a multichannel to a single channel system. We infer that the 20th-century intensification of channel dredging and re-alignment works accelerated rather than caused this development. The centennial-scale observations show that the Ems estuary evolution corresponds to a land reclamation response following tidal asymmetry-based stability theory as it moves toward a new equilibrium configuration with modified tidal flats and channels. Considering the long history of land reclamation in the Ems Estuary, it provides an analogy for expected developments in comparable tidal systems where land reclamations were recently carried out.

The bed stability of an estuary is determined by the net import or export of sediment, which in turn is controlled by multiple processes. Apart from the upstream riverine sediment supply, the net sediment flux is largely controlled by tidal hydrodynamics and the associated sediment exchange with the sea. In general, flood dominance causes landward residual sediment transport (sediment import from the sea), and ebb dominance causes seaward residual sediment export to the sea (Guo et al., 2014). In the New Waterway, The Netherlands, , residual fluxes are mainly associated with upstream and downstream advective transport in the salt wedge and in the fresh water layer, respectively. The associated processes have been well documented (De Nijs et al., 2010; Dronkers, 2017), which result in accumulation of sediment near the tip of the salt wedge (De Nijs et al., 2010). While it is known that mixing between freshwater and saltwater layers plays an important role in the residual salinity flux, little is known however about the exchange of sediment between both layers. We aim to quantify and understand the exchange of sediment across the freshwater-saltwater interface based on field data in a stratified tidal channel.

Effects of sea-level rise (SLR) on future peak water levels in tidal deltas and estuaries are largely unknown, despite these areas being densely populated and at high risk of flooding. While the rates of SLR accelerate, many channels simultaneously experience channel deepening for navigation. With globally decreasing sediment supplies, most channels are at risk of becoming deeper when the rate of SLR accelerates and sedimentation cannot keep pace with SLR. These factors potentially favor amplification of the tides and thereby increase flood risk, but the extent to which they will do so is unknown. Here, we introduce and use a validated model for an artificially deepened multi-branch delta to get a mechanistic understanding of non-linear SLR-effects on peak water levels. Results show that, when the current deepened bed level will be maintained, peak water levels do not rise on par with mean sea-level. Thus flood risk increases less than what can be expected from the predictions of the mean sea-level increase. The reason is that SLR causes a proportional reduction in convergence of channel area. This mechanism reduces tidal amplification. Nevertheless, SLR effects extend far beyond the range of present-day seasonal variations, with future low water levels being equal to present-day high water levels, while the tidal range slightly reduces. This will have consequences not only for flood risk, but also for freshwater availability, navigation and ecology.

Intertidal areas play a crucial role in controlling tidal hydrodynamics and morphodynamics in estuaries and tidal inlets. As a consequence, widespread land reclamation of the intertidal zone has led to alterations in tidal dynamics and the associated morphodynamics of estuaries worldwide. Comparatively little research has focussed on the impact of width changes on tidal hydrodynamics, and results that do exist are highly ambiguous (Talke and Jay, 2020). Tie channels in between parallel inlets complicate the tidal motion, as multichannel systems exhibit a hydrodynamic response that differs significantly from the response observed in single channel systems. In this study, we combine idealized process-based modelling and historical data analysis to investigate the effects of intertidal land reclamation on the tidal dynamics of single- and multichannel systems. Specifically, we focus on the Scheldt and Pasur-Shibsa estuaries, which represent a single- and multichannel system, respectively.

Existing tidal input reduction approaches applied in accelerated morphodynamic simulations aim to capture the dominant tidal forces in a single or double representative tidal cycle, often referred to as a “morphological tide.” These strongly simplified tidal signals fail to represent the tidal extremes and hence poorly allow to represent hydrodynamics in the intertidal areas. Here, a generic method is developed to construct a synthetic spring-neap tidal cycle that (a) represents the original signal; (b) is exactly periodic; and (c) is derived directly from tidal time series or harmonic constituents. The starting point is a fortnightly modulation of the semidiurnal tide to represent spring-neap variations, while conserving periodicity. Diurnal tides and higher harmonics of the semidiurnal tide are included to represent the asymmetry of the tide. The amplitudes and phases of the synthetic signal are then fitted to histograms of water levels and water level gradients derived from the original sea surface elevation time series. A depth-averaged model of the Ems estuary (The Netherlands) demonstrates the effects of alternative tidal input reduction techniques. Adopting the new approach, the along-estuary variation in tidal wave shape is well-represented, leading to an improved representation of extreme tidal conditions. Especially the more realistic representation of intertidal dynamics improves the overall hydrodynamics and residual sand transport patterns, approaching nonschematized tidal dynamics.

At a global scale, intertidal areas are being reclaimed for agriculture as well as urban expansion, imposing high human pressure on the coastal zone. The Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta (GBD) is an exponent of this development. In this delta, land reclamation accelerated in the 1960's to 1980's, when polders were constructed in areas subject to regular marine flooding. A comprehensive analysis of tidal channel evolution in the southwest GBD reveals how land reclamation leads to tidal amplification, channel shoaling, bank erosion, and interaction between channels in which one tidal river captures the storage area of a neighbouring river. We identify-two positive feedback mechanisms that govern these morphological changes. First, reclaiming intertidal areas results in immediate loss of tidal storage, which leads to amplification and faster propagation of the tides. In systems with abundant sediment supply, the blind tidal channels progressively fill in with sediment, leading to a continued loss of tidal storage and therefore further distorting the tides. Secondly, when intertidal areas of parallel (and inter-connected) river delta distributaries are asynchronously or unevenly reclaimed, one channel distributary may expand its intertidal area at the expense of the other. This is initiated by an increasing propagation speed of the tidal wave in the partially reclaimed distributary, travelling into the non-reclaimed distributary through connecting channels. These connecting channels progressively expand while the pristine channel shoals, and potentially degenerates. Both positive feedback loops are very stable and are responsible for pluvial flooding of polders, large-scale bank erosion, and poorly navigable primary waterways, including the navigation channel accessing Bangladesh's second-largest port. Interventions aiming to solve these problems have to account for the complex positive feedback mechanisms identified in this paper and be nature-based and holistic.

Sustainable river management can be supported by models predicting long-term morphological developments. Even for one-dimensional morphological models, run times can be up to several days for simulations over multiple decades. Alternatively, analytical tools yield metrics that allow estimation of migration celerity and damping of bed waves, which have potential for being used as rapid assessment tools to explore future morphological developments. We evaluate the use of analytical relations based on linear stability analyses of the St. Venant-Exner equations, which apply to bed waves with spatial scales much larger than the water depth. With a one-dimensional numerical morphological model, we assess the validity range of the analytical approach. The comparison shows that the propagation of small bed perturbations is well-described by the analytical approach. For Froude numbers over 0.3, diffusion becomes important and bed perturbation celerities reduce in time. A spatial-mode linear stability analysis predicts an upper limit for the bed perturbation celerity. For longer and higher bed perturbations, the dimensions relative to the water depth and the backwater curve length determine whether the analytical approach yields realistic results. For higher bed wave amplitudes, non-linearity becomes important. For Froude numbers ≤ 0.3, the celerity of bed waves is increasingly underestimated by the analytical approach. The degree of underestimation is proportional to the ratio of bed wave amplitude to water depth and the Froude number. For Froude numbers exceeding 0.3, the net impact on the celerity depends on the balance between the decrease due to damping and the increase due to non-linear interaction.

Deltaic intertidal areas disappear worldwide. This impacts delta morphology, because the extent and physiological character of the tidal floodplains control the tidal regime and, as a result, residual sediment transport patterns. Extensive reclamation of former tidal flats, effectively changing the ratio of channel volume to intertidal storage volume (Vs/Vc), drastically changes the functioning of the estuarine system. This might result in morphodynamic feedback loops that reach a tipping point towards an alternative stable regime (Van Maren et al., 2023). Our capacity to predict the consequences of future land reclamation or depoldering methods, a measure frequently suggested to cope with the effects of sea level rise, is limited, because the conceptual framework describing estuarine response to tidal flat reclamation fails to predict such regime transitions.

An idealized width-averaged model is employed to study the influence of wind stress on subtidal salt intrusion and stratification in well-mixed and partially stratified estuaries. We show that even in mild conditions, wind forcing can influence the estuarine salinity structure in a substantial way. By studying the role of wind forcing on dominant salt transport balances and associated salt transport regimes, we unify and clarify ambiguous observations from previous authors regarding the influence of wind stress: the response of the estuarine salinity structure to wind forcing is different depending on the underlying dominant salt transport balance, which in turn was found to determine whether wind-induced salinity shear, wind-induced modulation of the longitudinal salt distribution, or wind-induced mixing dominates. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: The purpose of this idealized study is to better understand how wind influences the salinity distribution in estuaries on large time scales. This is important because a change in winds can move saline water further inland, threatening freshwater availability and the natural balance of delicate ecosystems. We clarify the sometimes ambiguous observations regarding the influence of wind on the salt distribution and highlight the importance of including average wind forcing in analyses of estuarine dynamics on large time scales.