The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) has vast geothermal energy resources. When developed, these markedly strengthen the country's goals of achieving a carbon-neutral economy. To demonstrate the feasibility and techno-economic performance of small-scale, hydrothermal well doublet systems for direct use in KSA, we perform reservoir and wellbore flow and heat-transport simulations as well as an economic analysis. The maximum permissible flowrate is constrained to avoid thermoelastic fracturing in the near-wellbore region. Reservoir conditions of a sedimentary basin along the Red Sea coast (near Al Wajh) provide an ideal study case to which we add economic parameters considered representative for KSA. We derive a Levelized Cost of Heat (LCOH) ranging from 49 to 128 $/MWh for 50-mD hydrothermal doublet systems with an optimal well spacing of 600 m and a flowrate ranging from 110 kg/s to 50 kg/s. LCOH is strongly influenced by decreasing reservoir transmissivity. Also, a minimum injection temperature is required to avoid thermoelastic fracturing. Our economic analysis further highlights that capacity factor and well-drilling cost have the greatest impact on LCOH. Thus, this study provides a guide and workflow to conduct techno-economic investigations for decision-making, risk mitigation, optimizing geothermal-energy-extraction and economic-performance conditions of hydrothermal doublet systems.

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) has vast geothermal energy resources. When developed, these markedly strengthen the country's goals of achieving a carbon-neutral economy. To demonstrate the feasibility and techno-economic performance of small-scale, hydrothermal well doublet systems for direct use in KSA, we perform reservoir and wellbore flow and heat-transport simulations as well as an economic analysis. The maximum permissible flowrate is constrained to avoid thermoelastic fracturing in the near-wellbore region. Reservoir conditions of a sedimentary basin along the Red Sea coast (near Al Wajh) provide an ideal study case to which we add economic parameters considered representative for KSA. We derive a Levelized Cost of Heat (LCOH) ranging from 49 to 128 $/MWh for 50-mD hydrothermal doublet systems with an optimal well spacing of 600 m and a flowrate ranging from 110 kg/s to 50 kg/s. LCOH is strongly influenced by decreasing reservoir transmissivity. Also, a minimum injection temperature is required to avoid thermoelastic fracturing. Our economic analysis further highlights that capacity factor and well-drilling cost have the greatest impact on LCOH. Thus, this study provides a guide and workflow to conduct techno-economic investigations for decision-making, risk mitigation, optimizing geothermal-energy-extraction and economic-performance conditions of hydrothermal doublet systems.

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) has vast geothermal energy resources. When developed, these markedly strengthen the country's goals of achieving a carbon-neutral economy. To demonstrate the feasibility and techno-economic performance of small-scale, hydrothermal well doublet systems for direct use in KSA, we perform reservoir and wellbore flow and heat-transport simulations as well as an economic analysis. The maximum permissible flowrate is constrained to avoid thermoelastic fracturing in the near-wellbore region. Reservoir conditions of a sedimentary basin along the Red Sea coast (near Al Wajh) provide an ideal study case to which we add economic parameters considered representative for KSA. We derive a Levelized Cost of Heat (LCOH) ranging from 49 to 128 $/MWh for 50-mD hydrothermal doublet systems with an optimal well spacing of 600 m and a flowrate ranging from 110 kg/s to 50 kg/s. LCOH is strongly influenced by decreasing reservoir transmissivity. Also, a minimum injection temperature is required to avoid thermoelastic fracturing. Our economic analysis further highlights that capacity factor and well-drilling cost have the greatest impact on LCOH. Thus, this study provides a guide and workflow to conduct techno-economic investigations for decision-making, risk mitigation, optimizing geothermal-energy-extraction and economic-performance conditions of hydrothermal doublet systems.

Geothermal energy is gaining momentum as a renewable energy source. Reservoir simulation studies are often used to understand the underlying physics interactions and support decision making. Uncertainty related to geothermal systems can be substantial for subsurface and operational parameters and their interaction with regards to the output in terms of lifetime, energy and economic output. Specifically, for geothermal systems with the fault acting as the main fluid pathway the relevant field development uncertainties have not been comprehensively addressed. In this study we show how the produced energy, system lifetime and NPV are affected considering a range of subsurface and operational parameters as uncertainty sources utilizing an ensemble of 16,200 3D Hydraulic-Thermal (HT) reservoir simulations, conceptually based on the Rittershoffen field. A well configuration with oblique angles with respect to the main permeability anisotropy axes results in higher system lifetime, generated energy and NPV. A well spacing of 600 m consistently yields a higher economic efficiency (€/MWh) under all uncertainty parameters considered. More robust development options could be utilized in the absence of fault permeability characterization to ensure improved output prediction under uncertainty. Studies based on the methodology presented can improve investment efficiency for field development under subsurface and operational uncertainty.

Geothermal energy is gaining momentum as a renewable energy source. Reservoir simulation studies are often used to understand the underlying physics interactions and support decision making. Uncertainty related to geothermal systems can be substantial for subsurface and operational parameters and their interaction with regards to the output in terms of lifetime, energy and economic output. Specifically, for geothermal systems with the fault acting as the main fluid pathway the relevant field development uncertainties have not been comprehensively addressed. In this study we show how the produced energy, system lifetime and NPV are affected considering a range of subsurface and operational parameters as uncertainty sources utilizing an ensemble of 16,200 3D Hydraulic-Thermal (HT) reservoir simulations, conceptually based on the Rittershoffen field. A well configuration with oblique angles with respect to the main permeability anisotropy axes results in higher system lifetime, generated energy and NPV. A well spacing of 600 m consistently yields a higher economic efficiency (€/MWh) under all uncertainty parameters considered. More robust development options could be utilized in the absence of fault permeability characterization to ensure improved output prediction under uncertainty. Studies based on the methodology presented can improve investment efficiency for field development under subsurface and operational uncertainty.

Geothermal exploitation is subject to several uncertainties, even in settings with high data availability, adding to project risk. Uncertainty can stem from the reservoir's initial state, as well as from the geological and operational parameters. The interplay between these aspects entails irreducible risk prior to exploration drilling. Consequently it is difficult to construct an indicative qualitative and quantitative depiction of the most prominent facets (e.g. pressure, permeability). This paper shows the classification of known unknowns to risks, while also providing numerical results. Starting from seismic data and arriving at a reservoir model using a discrete parameter analysis we assess the risks and uncertainties of a geothermal project near the city of Groningen (NE Netherlands). By simulating all combinations of the considered parameters, their relative importance can be mapped out. Findings suggest that the unique regime of possible pressure depletion due to neighbouring gas production can highly impact the feasibility of the project. Results demonstrate how an in depth analysis at the exploration phase can direct future efforts towards the most significant elements. Although the numerical results are field specific, the methodology can be readily applied to different locations.