Emissions from land-based transport, aviation, and shipping contribute significantly to climate change. Besides CO₂, these emissions include short-lived compounds that affect air quality but are also climatically relevant. We use a global chemistry-climate model to show that the climate effects of these non-CO₂ emissions are substantial across all transport sectors both now and in the future. In sum, the non-CO₂ impacts result in a cooling, which offsets the positive climate forcing from transport-induced CO₂ by around 80% at present and between 25 and 60% in different scenarios for 2050. The trade-off that air pollutants mitigate global warming is strongly reduced in a future scenario with low anthropogenic emissions, where even small remaining amounts of non-CO₂ compounds cause significant cooling as they are released in a very clean atmosphere. Our findings emphasize the need to take non-CO₂ effects into account when assessing climate protection strategies for the transport sectors.

Aviation emissions are responsible for climate impacts through both carbon dioxide emissions and other emissions, in particular, of nitrogen oxides, water vapour, particulates, and contrail formation. In December 2022, the European Commission, Parliament and Council agreed to revise the European Union Emission Trading System for aviation. As such, from January 1, 2025, aircraft operators must monitor non-carbon dioxide climate effects, but suitable metrics for climate impact, handling of uncertainties and practical implementation are still under discussion or at least heavily debated. In this perspective, we propose a procedure for how to include non-carbon dioxide aviation effects into political frameworks. The main goal must be to create incentives for climate change mitigation for the aviation industry. Uncertainties in atmospheric processes need to be appropriately incorporated to minimise risk, and pilot projects are required to test implementation capabilities. Analysing risk, employing consistent monitoring, and determining economic effects will provide scientific grounds for including non-carbon dioxide effects in the European Union Emission Trading System. (Figure presented.)

While carbon dioxide emissions from aviation often dominate climate change discussions, non-CO₂ effects such as contrails and contrail cirrus must also be considered. Despite varying estimates of their radiative forcing, avoiding contrails is a reasonable strategy for reducing aviation’s climate effects. This study examines temperature and humidity, key atmospheric parameters for contrail formation, across different ECHAM/MESSy (European Centre Hamburg General Circulation Model/Modular Earth Submodel System) Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model setups. EMAC, a general circulation model, is evaluated with various vertical resolutions and two nudging methods across seven specified dynamics setups. A higher vertical resolution aims to capture steep water vapour gradients near the tropopause, crucial for accurate contrail prediction. Comparisons with reanalysis data (March–April 2014) indicate a systematic cold bias (approximately 3–5 K in mid-latitudes), particularly in setups without mean temperature nudging. In the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, all simulations exhibit a wet bias, while lower altitudes display a dry bias, both affecting contrail formation estimates. Point-by-point comparisons along aircraft trajectories confirm similar biases. Sensitivity experiments with varying thresholds of relative humidity over ice illustrate trade-offs between achieving high hit rates and minimising false alarms in contrail detection. A single-day case study integrating aircraft and satellite observations demonstrates that EMAC’s predicted contrail coverage aligns well with the observed formation. These results suggest that, despite existing temperature and humidity biases, EMAC generally captures regions favourable for contrail formation across diverse atmospheric conditions. Addressing model biases by refining temperature and humidity representation could significantly improve contrail prediction accuracy, strengthening contrail-avoidance strategies and supporting climate-optimised flight routing to mitigate aviation’s overall climate effect.

Aviation emissions of aerosol particles and aerosol precursor gases alter the Earth's radiation budget via both direct and indirect aerosol effects, resulting in a significant climate effect. Current estimates of aviation-induced climate effects are based on coarse-resolution global aerosol-climate models, which are not able to resolve the microphysical processes at the aircraft plume scale. This results in large uncertainties in the aviation-induced impact on aerosol number and size, which are key quantities for estimating the aerosol indirect effect, especially for low-level liquid-phase clouds. In this work, a double-box aircraft exhaust plume model is developed to explicitly simulate the aerosol microphysics inside a dispersing aircraft exhaust plume, together with a simplified representation of the vortex regime (which begins ĝ1/4 10 s after the aircraft emissions and captures the dynamics of aerosol particle interactions with contrail ice particles). The aircraft exhaust plume model is used to quantify the aviation-induced aerosol number concentration at the end of the dispersion regime (ĝ1/446 h) and the results are compared with the result obtained by the instantaneous dispersion approach commonly applied by the global models. The difference between the plume approach (simulated using two boxes) and the instantaneous dispersion approach (simulated by a single box) is defined as the plume correction: for typical cruise conditions over the North Atlantic and typical aviation emission parameters, the plume correction for aviation-induced particle number concentration ranges between -15 % and -4.2 %, depending on the presence or absence of the contrail ice in the vortex regime, respectively. A tendency-based process analysis shows that the negative value of the plume correction is due to the higher efficiency of coagulation and nucleation processes in the plume approach, leading to lower total particle number concentrations compared to the instantaneous dispersion approach. Sensitivity studies over different regions highlight the role of background conditions for the plume microphysics, with the plume correction varying between -12 % for Europe and -42 % for China in a scenario with contrail ice in the vortex regime. Parametric studies performed on various aviation emission parameters used to initialise the plume model demonstrate the high relevance of contrail ice in the vortex regime to considerably reduce the aviation-induced aerosol number concentration in the plume approach. Moreover, the parametric studies show a large sensitivity towards aviation fuel sulfur content, driving sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions and the sulfuric acid (H2SO4) formation, which in turn is a primary driver for the nucleation process. Thanks to its flexible configuration and minor additional computational costs, the plume model presented here can readily be applied in coarse-resolution global aerosol-climate models or used as offline parametrisation to quantify the climate effects of aviation-induced aerosol particles.

The aviation industry and policymakers are advocating Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) as one of the main pillars for making the aviation industry sustainable. However, regulatory frameworks like CORSIA and the EU Renewable Energy Directive often exclude the climate impact from in-flight non-CO2 emissions (e.g., NOx, H2O, and soot emissions), which is important in determining the effect of SAF in reducing the climate impact of aviation. To bridge this gap, we evaluate the total global warming effects of SAF from a well-to-wake analysis, which includes the climate effects from CO2 emissions of the well-to-wake combined with the non-CO2 emissions of the pump-to-wake (i.e., inflight). We quantify the climate impact of NOx, H2O and contrails and convert them to a CO2 equivalence (CO2e) factor based on a climate metric, for instance, the Average Temperature Response over a given time horizon (i.e., 20, 50 and 100 years). The resulting well-to-wake CO2e values for SAF vary from about 150 to 250 g/MJ, depending on the specific fuel pathways. Our analysis shows that the maximum reduction in CO2e emissions when using SAF is less than 50% compared to conventional jet fuel, mainly due to the inflight NOx and contrail effects.

Flight altitude is relevant to the climate effects resulting from aircraft emissions. Other research has shown that flying higher within the troposphere leads to larger warming from O ₃ production. Aircraft NO _x emissions are of particular interest, as they lead to warming via the short-term production of O ₃, but also to reduced warming via processes like CH ₄ depletion. We focus on short-term O ₃ production, as it constitutes one of aviation’s largest warming components. Understanding how O ₃ formation varies altitudinally throughout the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere is essential for designing climate-compatible aircraft and routing. We quantify this variation by performing simulations with a global atmospheric chemistry model for three representative cruise altitudes, five regions and two seasons using three methods: Eulerian tagging, perturbation and Lagrangian tagging. This multi-method, regional approach overcomes limitations of previous studies that utilize only one of these methods and apply global emission inventories biased towards present-day flight distributions, thus limiting their applicability to future aviation scenarios. Our results highlight that underrepresenting emissions in areas with growing flight activity (e.g. Asia Pacific) may lead to significant, regional underestimations of the altitudinal sensitivity of short-term NO _x -related O ₃ warming effects in certain cases. We find that emitting in Southern regions, like Australasia, leads to warming larger by a factor of two when compared to global averages. Our findings also suggest that flying lower translates to lower warming from short-term O ₃ production and that this effect is strongest during the local summer. We estimate differences ranging from a factor of 1.2-2.6 between tagging and perturbation results that are attributable to non-linearities of NO _x -O ₃ chemistry, and derived regional correction factors for a widely-used sub-model. Overall, we stress that a combination of all three methods is necessary for a robust assessment of aviation climate effects as they address fundamentally different questions.

Reliable prediction of aviation’s environmental impact, including the effect of nitrogen oxides on ozone, is vital for effective mitigation against its contribution to global warming. Estimating this climate impact however, in terms of the short-term ozone instantaneous radiative forcing, requires computationally-expensive chemistry-climate model simulations that limit practical applications such as climate-optimised planning. Existing surrogates neglect the large uncertainties in their predictions due to unknown environmental conditions and missing features. Relative to these surrogates, we propose a high-accuracy probabilistic surrogate that not only provides mean predictions but also quantifies heteroscedastic uncertainties in climate impact estimates. Our model is trained on one of the most comprehensive chemistry-climate model datasets for aviation-induced nitrogen oxide impacts on ozone. Leveraging feature selection techniques, we identify essential predictors that are readily available from weather forecasts to facilitate the implementation therein. We show that our surrogate model is more accurate than homoscedastic models and easily outperforms existing linear surrogates. We then predict the climate impact of a frequently-flown flight in the European Union, and discuss limitations of our approach.

Civil supersonic aviation may return in the near future. Their emissions have been found to lead to changes in the composition of the stratosphere, affecting the ozone layer and climate. To keep up with the rapid developments in supersonic aircraft technology and alternative fuels there is an increasing need for the development of surrogate modeling methods, which requires knowledge of the sensitivities to these emissions. We present a parametric study which evaluates the first- and second-order sensitivities of the ozone column and radiative forcing (RF) to supersonic emissions across two flight corridors and three altitudes. For a given increase in global fuel burn, we find that the increase in emission of (Formula presented.) is the main driver of both the changes in the global ozone column and RF, the latter of which is linked through changes in the ozone distribution. Followed by the increase in the emission of (Formula presented.), which leads to (Formula presented.) loss and has a cooling effect. The ozone column and climate are least sensitive to increases in (Formula presented.) emissions. We also show that interactions between (Formula presented.), (Formula presented.), and (Formula presented.) emissions lead to non-linear behavior in the atmospheric response. The effect of these interactions can lead to (Formula presented.) 5% differences in the ozone column impacts and up to 7.3% increases in RF. Our results demonstrate that the majority of second-order sensitivities may be neglected in surrogate models for small errors, which could greatly simplify their development. Our results also indicate that reductions in flight altitude and fleetwide (Formula presented.) emissions may effectively reduce the environmental footprint of supersonic aviation emissions.

Despite their proven importance for the atmospheric radiative energy budget, the effect of cirrus on climate and the magnitude of their modification by human activity is not well quantified. Besides anthropogenic pollution sources on the ground, aviation has a large local effect on cirrus microphysical and radiative properties via the formation of contrails and their transition to contrail cirrus. To investigate the anthropogenic influence on natural cirrus, we compare the microphysical properties of cirrus measured at mid-latitude (ML) regions (<60 N) that are often affected by aviation and pollution with cirrus measured in the same season in comparatively pristine high latitudes (HLs; ≥60 N). The number concentration, effective diameter, and ice water content of the observed cirrus are derived from in situ measurements covering ice crystal sizes between 2 and 6400 μm collected during the CIRRUS-HL campaign (Cirrus in High Latitudes) in June and July 2021. We analyse the dependence of cirrus microphysical properties on altitude and latitude and demonstrate that the median ice number concentration is an order of magnitude larger in the measured mid-latitude cirrus, with 0.0086 cm^-3, compared to the high-latitude cirrus, with 0.001 cm^-3. Ice crystals in mid-latitude cirrus are on average smaller than in high-latitude cirrus, with a median effective diameter of 165 μm compared to 210 μm, and the median ice water content in mid-latitude cirrus is higher (0.0033 gm^-3) than in high-latitude cirrus (0.0019 gm^-3). In order to investigate the cirrus properties in relation to the region of formation, we combine the airborne observations with 10 d backward trajectories to identify the location of cirrus formation and the cirrus type, i.e. in situ or liquid origin cirrus, depending on whether there is only ice or also liquid water present in the cirrus history, respectively. The cirrus formed and measured at mid-latitudes (M-M) have a particularly high ice number concentration and low effective diameter. This is very likely a signature of contrails and contrail cirrus, which is often observed in the in situ origin cirrus type. In contrast, the largest effective diameter and lowest number concentration were found in the cirrus formed and measured at high latitudes (H-H) along with the highest relative humidity over ice (RHi). On average, in-cloud RHi was above saturation in all cirrus. While most of the H-H cirrus were of an in situ origin, the cirrus formed at mid-latitudes and measured at high latitudes (M-H) were mainly of liquid origin. A pristine Arctic background atmosphere with relatively low ice nuclei availability and the extended growth of few nucleated ice crystals may explain the observed RHi and size distributions. The M-H cirrus are a mixture of the properties of M-M and H-H cirrus (preserving some of the initial properties acquired at mid-latitudes and transforming under Arctic atmospheric conditions). Our analyses indicate that part of the cirrus found at high latitudes is actually formed at mid-latitudes and therefore affected by mid-latitude air masses, which have a greater anthropogenic influence.

The climate impact of non-CO2 emissions, which are responsible for two-thirds of aviation radiative forcing, highly depends on the atmospheric chemistry and weather conditions. Hence, by planning aircraft trajectories to reroute areas where the non-CO2 climate impacts are strongly enhanced, called climate-sensitive regions, there is a potential to reduce aviation-induced non-CO2 climate effects. Weather forecast is inevitably uncertain, which can lead to unreliable determination of climate-sensitive regions and aircraft dynamical behavior and, consequently, inefficient trajectories. In this study, we propose robust climate-optimal aircraft trajectory planning within the currently structured airspace considering uncertainties in standard weather forecasts. The ensemble prediction system is employed to characterize uncertainty in the weather forecast, and climate-sensitive regions are quantified using the prototype algorithmic climate change functions. As the optimization problem is constrained by the structure of airspace, it is associated with hybrid decision spaces. To account for discrete and continuous decision variables in an integrated and more efficient manner, the optimization is conducted on the space of probability distributions defined over flight plans instead of directly searching for the optimal profile. A heuristic algorithm based on the augmented random search is employed and implemented on graphics processing units to solve the proposed stochastic optimization computationally fast. An open-source Python library called ROOST (V1.0) is developed based on the aircraft trajectory optimization technique. The effectiveness of our proposed strategy to plan robust climate-optimal trajectories within the structured airspace is analyzed through two scenarios: a scenario with a large contrail climate impact and a scenario with no formation of persistent contrails. It is shown that, for a nighttime flight from Frankfurt to Kyiv, a 55ĝ€¯% reduction in climate impact can be achieved at the expense of a 4ĝ€¯% increase in the operating cost.