B. De Schutter
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30 records found
1
Fault Localization in Medium Voltage Grids with High Inverter Penetration
A Two Time-Slice Bayesian Network Framework
This thesis proposes a fault localisation framework based on a Dynamic Bayesian Network, specifically a structurally correct two time-slice Bayesian network. The model represents the fault scenario as a joint hidden state compricing a continuous fault distance and a binary inverter saturation mode. The core contribution is a physically parameterised observation model in which the inverter current limiter introduces an additive hardware bias into the apparent impedance measurement when saturated, shifting the fault loop impedance away from the classical linear manifold by an empirically calibrated constant. Once this bias is established, the model requires no further labelled data and generalises across network topologies through the physical line reactance gradient. A sequential Monte Carlo particle filter jointly infers fault distance and saturation state from measured impedance and Point of Common Coupling voltage, without requiring any labelled fault data for training.
The model is validated across 112 inverter-relevant fault scenarios generated from high-fidelity electromagnetic transient simulations of a hybrid grid with grid-forming and grid-following resources, spanning line lengths from 5 to 30 km, two grid strengths, three hardware current limits, and two fault types. In the inverter-critical regime (close-in faults under weak-grid conditions, n = 28), the proposed model achieves 1.71 % Mean Absolute Error (MAE) compared to 72.38 % for the Takagi baseline — a 42-fold reduction in the regime where conventional impedance-based methods are most affected. Across the full inverter-relevant benchmark (n = 112), the proposed model achieves 23.63 % mean absolute error compared to 51.19 % (Takagi) and 34.54 % (Support Vector Regression); the residual error is concentrated at mid-range distances, where full inverter saturation produces impedance signatures that are indistinguishable between close-in and mid-range fault locations — a measurement degeneracy that no single-ended impedance method can resolve without additional observables. The model generalises zero-shot across unseen line lengths and hardware variants without retraining, while the Support Vector Regression baseline degrades significantly outside its 10 km training topology. These results indicate that encoding the inverter saturation physics directly into the probabilistic observation model is necessary for accurate fault localisation in the close-in, weak-grid scenarios where conventional methods fail. ...
This thesis proposes a fault localisation framework based on a Dynamic Bayesian Network, specifically a structurally correct two time-slice Bayesian network. The model represents the fault scenario as a joint hidden state compricing a continuous fault distance and a binary inverter saturation mode. The core contribution is a physically parameterised observation model in which the inverter current limiter introduces an additive hardware bias into the apparent impedance measurement when saturated, shifting the fault loop impedance away from the classical linear manifold by an empirically calibrated constant. Once this bias is established, the model requires no further labelled data and generalises across network topologies through the physical line reactance gradient. A sequential Monte Carlo particle filter jointly infers fault distance and saturation state from measured impedance and Point of Common Coupling voltage, without requiring any labelled fault data for training.
The model is validated across 112 inverter-relevant fault scenarios generated from high-fidelity electromagnetic transient simulations of a hybrid grid with grid-forming and grid-following resources, spanning line lengths from 5 to 30 km, two grid strengths, three hardware current limits, and two fault types. In the inverter-critical regime (close-in faults under weak-grid conditions, n = 28), the proposed model achieves 1.71 % Mean Absolute Error (MAE) compared to 72.38 % for the Takagi baseline — a 42-fold reduction in the regime where conventional impedance-based methods are most affected. Across the full inverter-relevant benchmark (n = 112), the proposed model achieves 23.63 % mean absolute error compared to 51.19 % (Takagi) and 34.54 % (Support Vector Regression); the residual error is concentrated at mid-range distances, where full inverter saturation produces impedance signatures that are indistinguishable between close-in and mid-range fault locations — a measurement degeneracy that no single-ended impedance method can resolve without additional observables. The model generalises zero-shot across unseen line lengths and hardware variants without retraining, while the Support Vector Regression baseline degrades significantly outside its 10 km training topology. These results indicate that encoding the inverter saturation physics directly into the probabilistic observation model is necessary for accurate fault localisation in the close-in, weak-grid scenarios where conventional methods fail.
Modeling and Management of Short-Term Electricity Markets using Systems and Control
An Economic Circuit Theory Application
Two classes of models are commonly used to analyze these markets: fundamental and statistical electricity price forecasting (EPF) models. Both face limitations in representing modern market dynamics. Fundamental models are developed for stable, dispatchable systems and are unable to capture highly dynamic market behavior, while statistical models rely on historical data and lose validity under structural change.
To address these limitations, this thesis develops a dynamical systems model using economic engineering. The day-ahead, intraday, and balancing stages are consolidated into a single formulation, enabling the representation of real-time market dynamics. The model remains
valid under structural change by restricting exogenous inputs to renewable generation forecasts and demand profiles. Price volatility and trading behavior emerge endogenously from the system dynamics.
The dynamical formulation enables real-time market management using control theory. The transmission system operator (TSO) is modeled as an incentive-based feedback controller that steers trading behavior and promotes proactive imbalance resolution. Similarly, generator-level control mitigates the impact of forecast errors.
The resulting closed-loop system is constructed using economic circuit theory. The controllers are shown to reduce reliance on balancing reserves and improve system stability under high renewable penetration and supply shocks. Using dynamic scenario analysis, this thesis further evaluates how system flexibility and sector heterogeneity affect prices and market liquidity
across market stages. ...
Two classes of models are commonly used to analyze these markets: fundamental and statistical electricity price forecasting (EPF) models. Both face limitations in representing modern market dynamics. Fundamental models are developed for stable, dispatchable systems and are unable to capture highly dynamic market behavior, while statistical models rely on historical data and lose validity under structural change.
To address these limitations, this thesis develops a dynamical systems model using economic engineering. The day-ahead, intraday, and balancing stages are consolidated into a single formulation, enabling the representation of real-time market dynamics. The model remains
valid under structural change by restricting exogenous inputs to renewable generation forecasts and demand profiles. Price volatility and trading behavior emerge endogenously from the system dynamics.
The dynamical formulation enables real-time market management using control theory. The transmission system operator (TSO) is modeled as an incentive-based feedback controller that steers trading behavior and promotes proactive imbalance resolution. Similarly, generator-level control mitigates the impact of forecast errors.
The resulting closed-loop system is constructed using economic circuit theory. The controllers are shown to reduce reliance on balancing reserves and improve system stability under high renewable penetration and supply shocks. Using dynamic scenario analysis, this thesis further evaluates how system flexibility and sector heterogeneity affect prices and market liquidity
across market stages.
The Hilbert-Huang transform is able to decompose the complex nonlinear wave structure caused by ship movement. Previous research studies that used conventional frequency analysis methods are insufficient to extract local time-frequency characteristics of the waves due to their nonlinearity and non-stationary behavior. The Hilbert-Huang transform combines Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) with Hilbert spectral analysis to extract local time-frequency information of the wave.
EMD can be extended to Ensemble EMD, where the method is improved using white noise. This extension solves the mode mixing problem commonly encountered in EMD, resulting in more physically meaningful Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs). Once the decomposition is complete, the extracted wave components—corresponding to the primary and secondary wave structures—are identified and grouped based on their frequency characteristics.
These extracted wave components are used as inputs for regression models such as regression tree algorithms and neural network regression models. By training these models on the decomposed wave data, it becomes possible to describe and predict critical wave characteristics as a function of relevant input parameters, such as ship speed, ship-gauge distance, and navigation channel symmetry. ...
The Hilbert-Huang transform is able to decompose the complex nonlinear wave structure caused by ship movement. Previous research studies that used conventional frequency analysis methods are insufficient to extract local time-frequency characteristics of the waves due to their nonlinearity and non-stationary behavior. The Hilbert-Huang transform combines Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) with Hilbert spectral analysis to extract local time-frequency information of the wave.
EMD can be extended to Ensemble EMD, where the method is improved using white noise. This extension solves the mode mixing problem commonly encountered in EMD, resulting in more physically meaningful Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs). Once the decomposition is complete, the extracted wave components—corresponding to the primary and secondary wave structures—are identified and grouped based on their frequency characteristics.
These extracted wave components are used as inputs for regression models such as regression tree algorithms and neural network regression models. By training these models on the decomposed wave data, it becomes possible to describe and predict critical wave characteristics as a function of relevant input parameters, such as ship speed, ship-gauge distance, and navigation channel symmetry.
Distributed Load Frequency Control via Integrated Model Predictive Control and Reinforcement Learning
Under Increasing Levels of Uncertainties
In this thesis, we first apply classical Benders decomposition to optimize train departure frequencies in a metro network considering time-varying passenger demands. Subsequently, we apply an $\epsilon$-optimal Benders decomposition approach to reduce the computational complexity further. A simulation-based case study using a grid metro network illustrates the performance of the two Benders decomposition-based approaches.
The simulation results show that the classical Benders decomposition approach significantly reduces the computational burden of optimizing train departure frequencies in metro networks. Moreover, the $\epsilon$-optimal Benders decomposition approach can further reduce the computation time when the problem size increases of the optimization problem when compared to the classical Benders decomposition approach while maintaining an acceptable level of performance.
...
In this thesis, we first apply classical Benders decomposition to optimize train departure frequencies in a metro network considering time-varying passenger demands. Subsequently, we apply an $\epsilon$-optimal Benders decomposition approach to reduce the computational complexity further. A simulation-based case study using a grid metro network illustrates the performance of the two Benders decomposition-based approaches.
The simulation results show that the classical Benders decomposition approach significantly reduces the computational burden of optimizing train departure frequencies in metro networks. Moreover, the $\epsilon$-optimal Benders decomposition approach can further reduce the computation time when the problem size increases of the optimization problem when compared to the classical Benders decomposition approach while maintaining an acceptable level of performance.
We do this by setting up different PWA and non-PWA control laws for two inverted pendulum systems and training several neural networks to approximate these control laws. We first observe a significantly better performance in approximating the PWA control laws compared to the non-PWA control laws. When varying the activation functions of the neural networks we find that for PWA control laws a MMPS activation function can offer a better performance, but it is not guaranteed for all MMPS functions. We also find that networks with custom max-plus layers can offer a similar performance on approximating control laws compared to networks with traditional layers. When investigating what sampling strategy is most beneficial we find comparable performance with a stratified sampling strategy and a uniform sampling strategy. Depending on what areas of the control law you want to capture with the most detail, you can choose the most viable sampling strategy. With this, we have researched various factors that influence the performance of approximations of MPC control laws. The thesis ends with a recommendation to research even more factors that might offer even better approximations. ...
We do this by setting up different PWA and non-PWA control laws for two inverted pendulum systems and training several neural networks to approximate these control laws. We first observe a significantly better performance in approximating the PWA control laws compared to the non-PWA control laws. When varying the activation functions of the neural networks we find that for PWA control laws a MMPS activation function can offer a better performance, but it is not guaranteed for all MMPS functions. We also find that networks with custom max-plus layers can offer a similar performance on approximating control laws compared to networks with traditional layers. When investigating what sampling strategy is most beneficial we find comparable performance with a stratified sampling strategy and a uniform sampling strategy. Depending on what areas of the control law you want to capture with the most detail, you can choose the most viable sampling strategy. With this, we have researched various factors that influence the performance of approximations of MPC control laws. The thesis ends with a recommendation to research even more factors that might offer even better approximations.
There are essentially three methods to determine the optimal sensor location: model-driven, data-driven, and simulation-driven. The model-driven methods use mathematical models to maximize the observability of the system but are mostly used for simplified simulated rooms. Data-driven methods often use clustering algorithms, or maximize metrics such as entropy or mutual information. These methods focus on estimating the indoor air temperature distribution. Simulation-driven methods use simulations to determine the airflow or temperature
fields, often with CFD. These are used to find local hot spots or locations for fast detection of contaminants. No research was found that used sensor data of additional building components besides of the indoor air temperature.
In this work, the sensors are selected based on model prediction accuracy and the overall control performance to determine the effect of addition state measurements. A model is constructed to simulate the building, together with an MPC and an extended Kalman filter for state estimation. These are combined to run the optimization and determine the control performance. The sensor set average of each measured state is considered the true temperature. For all possible sensor combinations, the error of the combination average w.r.t. the true temperature is assumed Gaussian. The fitted Gaussian error distributions are then used as measurement noise in the model. The building and control response is simulated
with the measurement error over multiple days. Two algorithms are implemented to find the optimal sensor set: a predictive method and greedy method. The results are compared to each other and both methods showed that the indoor air temperature measurements have the largest effect on performance. Measuring additional states only resulted in a small increase in performance. ...
There are essentially three methods to determine the optimal sensor location: model-driven, data-driven, and simulation-driven. The model-driven methods use mathematical models to maximize the observability of the system but are mostly used for simplified simulated rooms. Data-driven methods often use clustering algorithms, or maximize metrics such as entropy or mutual information. These methods focus on estimating the indoor air temperature distribution. Simulation-driven methods use simulations to determine the airflow or temperature
fields, often with CFD. These are used to find local hot spots or locations for fast detection of contaminants. No research was found that used sensor data of additional building components besides of the indoor air temperature.
In this work, the sensors are selected based on model prediction accuracy and the overall control performance to determine the effect of addition state measurements. A model is constructed to simulate the building, together with an MPC and an extended Kalman filter for state estimation. These are combined to run the optimization and determine the control performance. The sensor set average of each measured state is considered the true temperature. For all possible sensor combinations, the error of the combination average w.r.t. the true temperature is assumed Gaussian. The fitted Gaussian error distributions are then used as measurement noise in the model. The building and control response is simulated
with the measurement error over multiple days. Two algorithms are implemented to find the optimal sensor set: a predictive method and greedy method. The results are compared to each other and both methods showed that the indoor air temperature measurements have the largest effect on performance. Measuring additional states only resulted in a small increase in performance.
Motion prediction of vehicles surrounding the GRT vehicle
Interaction-aware motion prediction model
An interaction-aware motion model is the most advanced prediction model taking the infrastructure and interaction between the vehicles in the traffic scene into account. Therefore this principle of motion prediction is chosen for the motion prediction of the surrounding vehicles of the GRT. First, all possible state and route information of the surrounding vehicles are gathered. Secondly, a tree is created based on the vehicles' routes in the traffic situation, with the unique combination of manoeuvres known as a single branch of the scenario tree. Hereafter, the possible conflict areas between the individual manoeuvres are determined based on the desired trajectories for a specific route. The first vehicle passing the conflict area will influence the second vehicle's trajectory for passing the same conflict area, which will influence the third vehicle's trajectory and so on. Each vehicle can avoid a collision by passing in front or behind the previous vehicle(s) at the conflict area. Evaluating all passing possibilities will result in the velocity trajectory with the lowest cost, constrained by comfort. The sum of all costs for each branch of manoeuvres is used as a metric to determine the possible velocity profiles for each vehicle in the current traffic situation, resulting in a better understanding of the traffic scenario and ensuring a comfortable adaption to a changing traffic scenario. This thesis will evaluate several methods found in the literature to built a motion prediction model suitable for the application at 2getthere. The chosen motion model will be evaluated by two scenarios in a T-junction intersection.
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An interaction-aware motion model is the most advanced prediction model taking the infrastructure and interaction between the vehicles in the traffic scene into account. Therefore this principle of motion prediction is chosen for the motion prediction of the surrounding vehicles of the GRT. First, all possible state and route information of the surrounding vehicles are gathered. Secondly, a tree is created based on the vehicles' routes in the traffic situation, with the unique combination of manoeuvres known as a single branch of the scenario tree. Hereafter, the possible conflict areas between the individual manoeuvres are determined based on the desired trajectories for a specific route. The first vehicle passing the conflict area will influence the second vehicle's trajectory for passing the same conflict area, which will influence the third vehicle's trajectory and so on. Each vehicle can avoid a collision by passing in front or behind the previous vehicle(s) at the conflict area. Evaluating all passing possibilities will result in the velocity trajectory with the lowest cost, constrained by comfort. The sum of all costs for each branch of manoeuvres is used as a metric to determine the possible velocity profiles for each vehicle in the current traffic situation, resulting in a better understanding of the traffic scenario and ensuring a comfortable adaption to a changing traffic scenario. This thesis will evaluate several methods found in the literature to built a motion prediction model suitable for the application at 2getthere. The chosen motion model will be evaluated by two scenarios in a T-junction intersection.
Incremental Hierarchical Learning using Radial Basis Function for Taxonomy based data
A Transfer Learning Implementation
Being a safe and healthy alternative for polluting and space-inefficient motorised vehicles, cycling can strongly improve living conditions in urban areas. Idling in front of traffic lights is seen as one of the major inconveniences of commuting by bicycle. By giving personalised speed advice, the probability of catching a green light can be increased whilst taking the cyclist preferences into account. Due to its adaptive properties, Reinforcement learning (\acs{RL}) is a suited algorithm for developing optimal speed advice policies when dealing with a dynamic traffic environment and unique cyclist preferences. Generally, a large amount of training samples is required to successfully train a \acs{RL} algorithm. This poses a problem for this specific application since training samples must be generated by humans and are therefore scarce. Moreover, exploration of the environment is challenging since humans will not comply with irrational speed advice. These factors currently restrain the practical implementation of \acs{RL} algorithms for giving speed advice. This thesis aims to overcome these problems whilst maintaining a competitive performance compared to conventional \acs{RL} algorithms. This is done by using function approximators and a combined planning and learning method called Dyna. During a case study, three different function approximators are compared to reduce the amount of required training samples, namely polynomial functions, radial basis functions, and artificial neural networks. Secondly, the effectiveness of Dyna to improve the quality of the speed advice in an unknown environment is assessed. Finally, these methods are applied in a framework focused on the practical implementation of \acs{RL} for giving speed advice. It was concluded that function approximation method can significantly reduce the amount of required training samples to train a \acs{RL} algorithm. Dyna can increase user retention by providing cyclists with a high quality speed advice algorithm during the early learning phase of the algorithm. Therefore, it can be concluded that this \acs{RL} approach for giving personalised speed advice to cyclist approaching intersections is practically implementable and can even outperform benchmark algorithms in terms of travel time, energy consumption, and safety. ...
Being a safe and healthy alternative for polluting and space-inefficient motorised vehicles, cycling can strongly improve living conditions in urban areas. Idling in front of traffic lights is seen as one of the major inconveniences of commuting by bicycle. By giving personalised speed advice, the probability of catching a green light can be increased whilst taking the cyclist preferences into account. Due to its adaptive properties, Reinforcement learning (\acs{RL}) is a suited algorithm for developing optimal speed advice policies when dealing with a dynamic traffic environment and unique cyclist preferences. Generally, a large amount of training samples is required to successfully train a \acs{RL} algorithm. This poses a problem for this specific application since training samples must be generated by humans and are therefore scarce. Moreover, exploration of the environment is challenging since humans will not comply with irrational speed advice. These factors currently restrain the practical implementation of \acs{RL} algorithms for giving speed advice. This thesis aims to overcome these problems whilst maintaining a competitive performance compared to conventional \acs{RL} algorithms. This is done by using function approximators and a combined planning and learning method called Dyna. During a case study, three different function approximators are compared to reduce the amount of required training samples, namely polynomial functions, radial basis functions, and artificial neural networks. Secondly, the effectiveness of Dyna to improve the quality of the speed advice in an unknown environment is assessed. Finally, these methods are applied in a framework focused on the practical implementation of \acs{RL} for giving speed advice. It was concluded that function approximation method can significantly reduce the amount of required training samples to train a \acs{RL} algorithm. Dyna can increase user retention by providing cyclists with a high quality speed advice algorithm during the early learning phase of the algorithm. Therefore, it can be concluded that this \acs{RL} approach for giving personalised speed advice to cyclist approaching intersections is practically implementable and can even outperform benchmark algorithms in terms of travel time, energy consumption, and safety.
Design of a Graph Neural Network
To predict the optimal resolution of the Sonar Performance Model
Hybrid passivity and finite-gain properties of reset systems
An application to stability analysis in the frequency domain
Situation-Aware Self-Adaptive Localisation Framework
A Knowledge Representation and Reasoning approach