Denmark Strait Overflow Water (DSOW) forms a major component of the deep limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). This study investigates the main pathways along which DSOW spreads through the subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) and how its temperature, salinity and density evolve along these routes. We used a Lagrangian particle-tracking approach based on velocity and tracer fields from the Global Ocean Physics Analysis and Forecast system provided by Copernicus Marine Service. Particles were released at the Denmark Strait sill and tracked for three years. We found that DSOW spreads throughout the SPNA via pathways where particles stay in the boundary current and pathways where particles follow both the boundary current and enter an interior. The highest percentage of particles (72.4%) travels via only the boundary current; of the interiors, the Labrador Sea interior is most frequently entered (23.0%), while exchanges with the Irminger Sea (4.4%) interior is smaller. The fraction of particles entering an interior is highest in winter (36%), consistent with enhanced density gradients and eddy activity. Along its pathways, DSOW warms and becomes more saline through mixing with ambient waters. Particles that stay in the boundary currents experience the largest changes in temperature (+14°C), salinity (+2.5 g/kg) and density (-1.2 kg/m³, while particles that enter an interior experience smaller changes (temperature +9°C, salinity +0.5 g/kg and density -0.7 kg/m³). Particles that travel via both the boundary current and enter an interior also experience the largest changes in density in the boundary current. These findings suggest that most transport and transformation of DSOW occurs within the boundary current, while exchange with the interior plays a smaller role. ... Read more

This study examines the spatiotemporal changes in snow regimes across High Mountain Asia (HMA), with a focus on snowfall, snowmelt and snow water equivalent (SWE) trends and their relationship with elevation, temperature, and precipitation. Utilizing ERA5-Land data, the analysis reveals a general decrease in snowfall and SWE, as well as snowmelt in low to mid-elevations. Notably, high-elevation zones, despite also experiencing declining snowfall, exhibit increased snowmelt due to the persistence of deep snowpacks. However, the overall reduction in snowmelt across all basins, and significant decline of total snowmelt in the Brahmaputra, Indus, and other major river basins, underscores the critical impact of climate change on water resources. Correlation analyses further highlight complex interactions between temperature, precipitation, and snow regimes, varying by season and elevation. The study acknowledges limitations in ERA5-Land's accuracy, particularly in high-elevation regions, and calls for future research to incorporate multiple data sources and uncertainty analysis to improve the reliability of findings. The implications of declining snowmelt for water availability in major river basins are significant, warranting continued investigation. ... Read more

Predicting streamflow in a changing climate poses significant challenges for traditional hydrological models. Static parameter sets result from model calibrations over historical data that increasingly encounter the non-stationary impacts on the hydrological system. Endeavouring toward non-stationary model parameters by incorporating time-adaptive ecosystem-scale root zone storage parameters shows promise for modelling systems under change. The ongoing CATAPUC project aims to further develop, refine, and implement this adaptive modelling approach. This paper continues to build upon this body of work by investigating the evidence for land cover change impacts on root zone storage capacity, focusing specifically on uncertainties in the evaporative balance. Combining long-term hydrometeorological data from the primary study area, the Meuse basin, with the large-sample CAMELS datasets (GB and US) analyses were performed across 283 catchments. Applying the vector operations from Velde et al. (2014) and Jaramillo et al. (2018) to decadal changes within the Budyko framework, we separate climate-related evaporative changes. We isolated the residual component of evaporative change, which is the unknown component affecting parameter estimations. Our findings indicate that this residual component is twice as prominent in evaporative change as the climate component. The aim is to test if land cover changes have contributed significantly to the residual component of evaporative change. A multi-scale approach to land cover change analysis is adopted to bridge the data gap from 1984 to 2019. Implementing ensemble machine-learning methods on Landsat imagery with Google Earth Engine, we develop annual timeseries of (30m) high-resolution multi-class data for this period with accuracies up to 86% for 117 catchments (Meuse and GB). Resulting land cover change estimates suggest that Meuse Basin urbanisation rates may have been significantly underestimated for this period. The Meuse Basin over the most recent 20-year period is found to deviate anomalously in actual evaporation compared with the large sample. A distinct spatial pattern reveals a concentration of deviations in the east of the basin. Calculated by Tempel (2023), the anomaly in the basin corresponds with a relative median error in root zone storage capacity change of −14%. Low flow analysis is performed to remove the possibility that deviations are affected by anomalous contribution to streamflow from additional subsurface flow. We observed that the increase in low flow variability over the same period exhibits a spatial pattern similar to the Meuse Basin anomaly. We found no meaningful causal relationships linking multi-scale interdecadal changes in forest, agriculture, and urban land classes to the observed deviations in the large sample datasets. The implication of this study is that land cover change is likely not a significant driver of evaporative changes, specifically, errors, throughout the record available.
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In the tropics, the character of the trade-winds is decisive for setting convergence and the large-scale circulation. Nevertheless, the vertical transport of momentum by shallow convection (SCMT) and yet its impact on trade- winds has not been investigated in depth yet. With this study, we aim to contribute in understanding the isolated effect SCMT has on the large scale circulations, setting the strength of the circulation and favouring zones of deep convection. Six climate models participated by each conducting three aquaplanet simulations, referring to a simplified climate model in which the entire planet’s surface is covered by ocean, useful for studying fundamental atmosphere-ocean dynamics in the absence of complex land surface interactions. In three distinctive simulations, the models either turn off or exaggerate their SCMT scheme, alternatively by altering an approximate convective momentum scheme. We hypothesized that given the typical tropical wind profile, north-easterly flow at the surface and south-westerly flow aloft, the depth of mixing is determinative for the long-term reaction in setting the circulation. By deeper types if mixing, the scheme will likely bring opposite winds to the surface, affecting both the magnitude and direction of the trade-winds. A first analysis reveals that certain confine the mixing of surface friction to the sub-cloud layer, showing a clear cut-off of induced tendency between the mixed layer and the cloud layer. It is those models that favour a local response only in the shallow overturning circulation, opposite to the models that actively mix momentum between the mix-layer and cloud-layer and show adjustments in the deep overturning circulation. Further building earlier work showing that the horizontal advection of moist static energy (MSE) in the sub-tropics drives tropical convection, we analyzed to what extent enhanced SCMT leads to a change in atmospheric cooling rates by di- or convergence of MSE. Apparent differences by enhanced SCMT are observed in the in cooling rates by advection of MSE between the models that show strong responses in the deep overturning versus the models that do not. ... Read more

Atmospheric rivers transport 90% of all atmospheric moisture in the mid-to-high latitudes, while covering only 10% of the Earth’s surface at any given time. Atmospheric rivers occur infrequently, and atmospheric river frequency in the polar areas is especially low, but they can have a large impact on the cryosphere when they make landfall. They have been linked to various processes affecting the surface mass balance, such as extreme precipitation events as well as surface melt.
This thesis addresses the importance of atmospheric rivers in the polar regions. The study aims to compare atmospheric river precipitation estimates obtained from reanalysis data with ICESat-2 satellite altimetry observations in Antarctica between 2019 and 2021, to determine whether the two different types of data sets show similar amounts of atmospheric river precipitation.
To achieve this goal, an atmospheric river detection algorithm designed specifically for polar regions was used to identify atmospheric rivers in Antarctica. All precipitation falling within an atmospheric river footprint for the first 24 hours after detection is attributed to the atmospheric river. The detection algorithm and precipitation attribution are performed to MERRA-2 and ERA5 reanalysis data. The resulting atmospheric river precipitation anomalies were then compared to ICESat-2 height change observations using correlation analysis and a metric based on variance reduction. A detailed analysis
is presented of specific drainage basins that show promising results based on the comparison of the reanalysis data and ICESat-2 observations, using time series.
The results show a high degree of correlation between the atmospheric river precipitation anomalies from reanalysis data and ICESat-2 height changes in multiple drainage basins. Variance reduction shows that atmospheric river precipitation can explain a significant part of the variance of the ICESat2 height change observations in these drainage basins. This suggests that in select locations, the atmospheric river precipitation expected based on reanalysis data is indeed observable in ICESat-2 data. A challenge is the coarse temporal resolution of ICESat-2 data. ICESat-2 data has a temporal resolution of 91 days, whereas atmospheric rivers typically last between a few hours up to a few days
at most, and occur very infrequently (up to ∼2% of the total time over the time period 2019-2021).
Nonetheless, this thesis provides a comprehensive analysis of atmospheric river precipitation in Antarctica using both reanalysis data and satellite observations, contributing to a better understanding of the impact of atmospheric rivers on the surface mass balance of Antarctica. Additionally, it suggests that as long as its limitations are taken into account, ICESat-2 data can be a valuable tool to use in addition to reanalysis data in the study of atmospheric rivers in the polar regions. ... Read more

In September 2022, Greenland experienced an extraordinary late-season melt event, characterized by temperatures exceeding the melting point at Summit Station for the first time on record and surface melt appearing across one-third of the ice-sheet. This thesis investigates extreme melt events at the Summit in Greenland, focusing on the attribution of the September 2022 extreme melt event to human-induced climate change. The study combines observational data and climate model simulations to assess the influence of climate change on these events and project their likelihood in the future. The research involved identifying melt events in observational and model data. Subsequently, melt-event probability ratios were calculated between the pre-industrial, current, and future climates. These ratios were synthesized to form an attribution statement and provide insights into future scenarios. The study reveals that melt events in any month at the Summit in Greenland have become 20 times more likely in the current climate compared to the pre-industrial climate. This increase in likelihood of melt events in any month is significant and can be attributed to human-induced climate change. However, for melt events specifically in September, although unprecedented in pre-industrial and recent times, no significant increase is found due to a lack of data. Definitive conclusions are expected with more data. Projections based on climate models indicate a substantial rise in future melt event probabilities, reaching up to a 46% chance of Summit melt in September and a 83% chance throughout the remainder of the year. The findings suggest that, while the September 2022 event cannot definitively be attributed to climate change, it highlights the increasing likelihood of such events and their potential impact on sea levels. However, the analysis carries inherent uncertainties due to limited historical and climate model data usage and limited consideration of atmospheric river circumstances. Despite these challenges, these insights contribute to enhancing our understanding of extreme melt events and, in turn, inform the formulation of future climate mitigation and adaptation strategies. ... Read more

It is well known that warming of deep Atlantic Water in recent decades resulted in extensive retreat of marine terminating glaciers in Northwest Greenland and increased their discharge, which contributed significantly to sea level rise. Here we use data and model resources over a wide range of space and timescales to determine how the pathways of deep Atlantic Water, through the complex bathymetry of Melville Bay, increased the vulnerability of glaciers over the observed ocean warming period. New observations of salinity and temperature of the ocean water and bathymetry from NASA’s Ocean Melting Greenland mission as well as Mankoff’s discharge estimates are combined with FESOM and HYCOM ocean model results. We have shown that these pathways of Atlantic Water are crucial for understanding the increase in discharge of certain glaciers over the ocean warming period. More specifically, the vulnerability of a marine terminating glacier in Northwest Greenland to Atlantic Water depends on its latitudinal position, the location of the fjordal channel entrance along the Southern or Northern canyon head and whether the fjordal channel is deep enough to be a pathway for Baffin Bay Intermediate Water. The Upernavik N and C glaciers, which are in the most vulnerable position, contributed 10% to the total discharge change of Northwest Greenland. In addition, the glaciers that exhibited the largest normalised discharge change showed correspondence between their discharge estimates and the observed changes in fjord geometry during the retreat of the glacier calving front. Warming of deep Atlantic Water impacted the normalised discharge estimates, but the sensitivity of the fjord geometry also controlled large parts of the observed trends. With this study, new insights in the vulnerability of marine terminating glaciers were obtained, which showed that the pathways of Atlantic Water should not be overlooked when developing climate models. ... Read more

In this report the hydrological response to multiyear droughts has been researched. Long-term droughts have resulted in an increase in tree die-off in affected areas. As the hydrological response is related to the vegetation in a catchment, it is of interest to find out whether catchment response regarding rainfall-runoff is different after a long-term drought relative to the situation before the drought. It is important to know this, because a good prediction of water availability is required for making decisions regarding water resources. The research is conducted in Australia, where a long-term drought took place from 1997 up to 2008. The two research questions that have been investigated during this research are: 1) Is there a change in runoff ratio (the fraction of precipitation that becomes runoff) in catchments after a long-term drought relative to the situation before the drought? 2) Is there a change in the root-zone storage capacity (the amount of storage available in the root-zone of the soil) determined with the mass curve technique following a multiyear drought? In this research, the runoff ratio observed after the drought has been compared to the runoff ratio before the drought. This is done to determine whether a change has taken place in the rainfall-runoff relationship of the catchment. In the catchments where the rainfall-runoff relationship shows a change from the situation before the drought, a decrease in runoff ratio is mostly observed. In 54 out of the 196 analyzed catchments, the runoff ratio is lower than the 10 percentile of the runoff ratio before the drought. In 27 catchments, the runoff ratio after the drought is above the 90 percentile of the runoff ratio before drought. In most of the studied catchments no clear difference in the rainfall-runoff relationship can be found due to a long-term drought. Factors that were found to play a role in the differences between the responses to a drought were the drought severity, which is a combination of the drought length and the intensity of the drought, and the seasonality of the precipitation. Catchments that had an increase in runoff ratio were more likely to have a longer drought period and a summer-based precipitation pattern. For the second research question, the root-zone storage capacities have been determined using an earlier derived mass curve technique method, combined with a method that has been developed for recovering ecosystems. In order to compare root-zone storage capacities before and after a drought, a variable is introduced that describes the differences between the values for the root-zone storage capacities before and after the drought. Catchments that showed an increase in the runoff ratio were also more likely to have a negative change in the root-zone storage capacity. This indicates that the root-zone storage capacity decreases in catchments that show an increase in the runoff ratio after drought. ... Read more

The Labrador Sea is one of the deep convection sites in the world's oceans and the water masses formed here are an important component of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). To study this linkage, one study in particular used an idealized model of the Labrador Sea where the density variations consists only of temperature variations. In this study, it is questioned whether the assumption of neglecting salinity is appropriate, by analysing the pathways of water mass and water mass transformation in the Labrador Sea.
This is investigated by using that same idealized model (here called the reference run) and comparing this to a model where salinity variations are added whilst keeping density variations the same (Sconstant) to produce a similar circulation pattern. Furthermore, a model configuration is created which investigates if a seasonal cycle in salinity impacts the circulation pattern of the Labrador Sea (Sseasonal). The pathways of water masses in these model configurations are analyzed by Lagrangian particle tracking from A to B.
It was found that with the same initial density variations the maximum surface eddy kinetic energy (EKE) increases by 41 % when salinity is incorporated in the model. An increase in EKE is often associated with more water mass leaving the boundary current (BC) due to an increase in instabilities. Surprisingly, the opposite was found: 7.02 and 8.22 Sv are transported through the BC for the reference run and Sconstant, respectively. Furthermore it was found that most of the water mass leaves and re-enters the BC near the maximum EKE for each model configuration. An increase was found in maximum overturning in density space from an Eulerian perspective: from 3.9 to 4.8 Sv for the reference run and Sconstant, respectively, where about 10 % so called density compensation occurred for Sconstant. No significant annual changes are found when adding a seasonal cycle to the model. For all model configurations a large discrepancy exists between Eulerian and Lagrangian calculations in downwelling. This discrepancy is due to Lagrangian particles that reside in the models at the end of their simulation duration Thus the overturning in the Labrador Sea is significantly influenced by particles that have a long residence time (longer than 4 years in these model simulations). Between 22 and 25 % of the Lagrangian volume transport does not reach the outflow of each model simulation.
There are also properties that salinity did not influence: no significant changes were found between the model configurations for the overturning in depth space, the annual MLD and barotropic streamfunction. In conclusion adding salinity to the idealized model showed only minor changes in the pathways of water mass and water mass transformation: the order of magnitude of all analyzed properties stays the same. Density compensation however is neglected when no salinity variations are added in the model. This means that for a highly idealized model of the Labrador Sea, salinity variations can be neglected, when density variations due to salinity variations are represented by temperature variations. ... Read more

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key component in the Earth System. Given its important role in the climate system, variability in the AMOC strength is expected to have great impact on the global climate. The current observational timeseries are not long enough to make climate projections for the end of the century or even longer. Therefore, coupled climate models play an important role in the making of end of century climate projections on the AMOC strength. A known issue with the current generation of global coupled climate models is that the grid resolution is generally too coarse to resolve smaller scale processes such as mesoscale eddies. Observations and modelling studies suggest that mesoscale eddies play an important role in the exchange of water between convection regions and downwelling regions. When such processes are absent or parametrized incorrectly, it can have an influence on the climate projections based on these model simulations. This study analysed the AMOC characteristics in two different simulations of the Community Earth System Model; a reference simulation (referred to as piControl) and a simulation in which the atmospheric CO2 concentrations have been increased to four times the initial concentration (referred to as 1pctCO2). First, the AMOC characteristics in the piControl simulation are analysed using both a Eulerian and a Lagrangian approach. The Eulerian analysis shows that deep mixed layers, an indicator for convection, are present in the subpolar North Atlantic. Compared to observations and higher-resolution ocean-only models are these located closer to the West-Greenland coast. Strong vertical velocities are found over the continental slopes, especially over the steep continental slopes around Greenland. Second, the Lagrangian analysis showed the consequences of the coarse grid in the model. Only a single pathway around the subpolar gyre was observed. This implies that particles will experience convection while crossing the interior of the Labrador Sea, but only will experience downwelling when their individual pathway comes close enough to the continental slopes around Greenland. Furthermore, there is only limited exchange of particles with the regions north and south of the subpolar gyre. In the export of deep waters to the subtropical gyre, does it seem that the particles are being blocked by the North Atlantic Current. Third, the changes in the AMOC characteristics in the 1pctCO2 simulation are compared to the piControl simulation. In the 1pctCO2 simulation have deep mixed layers disappeared from the subpolar North Atlantic and convection in this region has shut down. A new fresh(er) surface layer in the Labrador Sea has intensified the stratification and prohibits the formation of deepmixed layers. Instead of the deep mixed layers in the subpolar North Atlantic have new deep mixed layers emerged between 30N and 40N. In general are velocities reduced in magnitude in the 1pctCO2 simulation, but the stronger vertical velocities can still be found over the continental slopes. In conclusion, the results show that the CESM model can reproduce the two components of the AMOC reasonably well, but the connection in the formof mesoscale eddies is missing. This illustrates that a overturning streamfunction simplifies the complexity of the overturning process. The overturning streamfunction is a measure for the overturning strength, but it does not take into account how and if the convection process and the exchange between convection and downwelling are represented. ... Read more

Hydrological regimes of alpine catchments are expected to be strongly influenced by climate change due to their dependence on snow dynamics. While seasonal changes have been studied extensively, studies on changes in the timing and magnitude of annual extremes remain rare. This study investigates the effects of climate change on runoff patterns in six alpine catchments in Austria by using a topography-driven semi-distributed hydrological model and 14 climate projections for both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The study catchments represent a range of alpine catchments, from pluvial-nival to nivo-glacial, as the study focuses on exploring the effects of climate change on catchments of different altitudes.
Simulations of 1981-2010 were compared to projections of 2071-2100 and changes in timing and magnitude of annual maximum and minimum flows as well as monthly discharges and melt were examined. Our results indicate a substantial shift to earlier occurrences in annual maximum flows by 9 to 31 days and an extension of the potential flood season by 1 to 3 months for high elevation catchments. For lower elevation catchments, changes in timing of annual maximum flows are less pronounced. Magnitudes of annual maximum flows are likely to increase, with four catchments exhibiting larger increases under RCP 4.5 than RCP 8.5. The timing of minimum annual discharges shifts to earlier in the winter months for high elevation catchments, whereas for lower elevation catchments a shift from winter to autumn is observed. While all catchments show an increase in mean magnitude of minimum flows under RCP 4.5, this is only the case for four catchments under RCP 8.5. Our results suggest a relationship between the altitude of catchments and changes in timing of annual maximum and minimum flows and magnitude of low flows, whereas no relationship between altitude and magnitude of annual maximum flows could be distinguished. The degree of future change in timing and monthly discharges is larger under RCP 8.5, a change of up to twice as large in monthly discharges is found for RCP 8.5 compared to RCP 4.5. ... Read more

The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) was a time of relatively abrupt climate change with intensive atmospheric greenhouse warming of 5 - 8˚C and is regarded as quasi-analogous for the modern anthropogenically-induced global warming. It therefore attracted considerable attention from geologists over the last decades. The PETM occurred 56 million years ago and is characterized by a sharp negative δ13C isotope excursion which has been observed in terrestrial and marine sediment records the world over. The PETM global warming led to a significant alteration in regional climate and to an enhanced hydrologic cycle which triggered an increase in weathering and sediment discharge from catchments to basins.
The sedimentary, biotic, and climatic responses to the PETM have been studied intensely on the American and European continents. However, detailed analyses of the impact to the PETM on the Asian continent remain rare. Here, a detailed analysis of the sedimentary and climatic response to the PETM in the Hengyang Basin, Hunan Province, China, is presented. High-resolution isotope measurements of pedogenic carbonate nodules reveal the characteristic isotope excursion of the PETM and strongly improve the previous low-resolution isotope series. Pedogenic features and clay types of PETM floodplain deposits indicate oxic conditions and a climate with pronounced seasonality in which intensive dry periods alternated with wet seasons. Grain size analysis of the paleosols support the hypothesis of coarsening deposits as a response to the PETM even though the coarsening is not strongly pronounced. Sediment bypassing and a depleted regolith in coarse material is suggested as the main reasons for the only minor pronounced coarsening in the PETM units. A generalized PETM model, which was simulated in PaCMod, a spatially lumped numerical model developed at the University of Delft, Netherlands, predicts an increase in net precipitation and erosion in the catchment area during the PETM. As a result, the simulated water discharge increases and lead to increased bedload and suspend load transport within the river system. These modelled results are correlative with the geological findings in the Hengyang basin. The Chinese terrestrial PETM record studied here corroborates the global continental impact of the greenhouse warming event through a shift towards pronounced aridity alternating with intensified wet seasons resulting in an oxic floodplain environment with a minor coarsening in grain size.
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