Introduction

The Dutch electricity system increasingly needs flexibility, because electricity generation from variable renewable sources such as solar and wind does not always match electricity demand. Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) can provide this flexibility by storing electricity and releasing it later. They respond quickly, scale across system sizes, and are already commercially proven. These properties have led market actors to increasingly deploy utility-scale BESS. At household level, residential BESS, or home batteries, are also growing rapidly and make up ~45% of installed capacity in the Netherlands.

Despite technical similarity, installed capacity of the two types of BESS grows in fundamentally different ways. Utility-scale capacity growth results from a limited number of professional investment decisions and is therefore relatively predictable. Residential BESS capacity growth is more difficult to predict, because it emerges from many separate household decisions shaped by financial and non-financial considerations. Various actors can only influence the conditions under which households evaluate one. In this thesis, these conditions are conceptualized as home battery attributes, such as investment costs, payback time, certainty of payback time, self-consumption and emergency power.

Literature Review

Existing literature shows that residential BESS adoption follows from many household decisions to invest in a home battery. This decision should not be understood as purely techno-economic. Financial drivers such as costs, payback time and lower electricity bills matter, but non-financial drivers such as energy autonomy, emergency power and environmental motives also shape the household decision. A structured literature search identified a broad set of adoption drivers, which were organized using a framework for categorizing drivers of household investment decisions. Although literature is rich in possible drivers, it does not clearly show which home battery attributes matter most to households, how important these attributes are relative to one another, nor how changes in these attributes affect choices. Existing prioritizations rely mainly on stated importance rather than observed choice trade-offs, and evidence is concentrated in Australian studies, limiting transferability to the Dutch context.

The main research question of this thesis is therefore: How do changes in home battery attributes affect the household investment decision to buy a home battery? It is answered through three sub-questions. First, the thesis identifies the most important attributes affecting the household investment decision. Second, it estimates their relative importance. Third, it explores how changes in these attributes affect the probability that a household chooses a home battery.

Methodology

The research combines a literature analysis with Discrete Choice Modeling (DCM). The literature analysis screened the broad set of drivers down to a set of 12 attributes, from which we derived a subset of five key home battery attributes: investment costs, payback time, certainty of payback time, energy autonomy, and backup power.

A discrete choice experiment (DCE) was designed where respondents repeatedly chose between Battery A, Battery B and no battery. Each battery was described by a set of these attributes and their levels. The final experiment included eight choice tasks and was completed by 529 usable respondents. From the total pool of respondents, based on household characteristics, a representative sample for the average Dutch household was made. A panel mixed logit model estimated relative importance of the key attributes and the choice probabilities for choosing a baseline home battery with consistent attributes.

Results

A panel mixed logit model estimated on the choice data shows that all five attributes have a statistically significant effect on household choices. The model provides significant explanatory power (ρ² = 0.2477). The relative importance of the attributes for the average Dutch household is shown in Figure . A choice probability analysis shows the probability for choosing a baseline home battery is 0.60 in a data sample with solar PV owners, and 0.53 in the representative sample. These values should not be interpreted as real market shares, but as controlled model outputs.

Conclusion

Changes in home battery attributes affect the household investment decision by changing the probability that a household selects the battery alternative. The five selected attributes are therefore relevant "knobs" through which residential BESS adoption can be understood or influenced. However, the model only tests the included attributes: it shows that these five matter, not that they are the five most important in every real-world decision.

From the key attributes and their relative importances we found that the household investment decision is strongly financial, but not purely economically rational. Costs, payback time and certainty of payback time together account for most of the relative importance, yet households do not appear to evaluate a battery as a simple profitability calculation. Payback time, a key metric for professional investors, is the least important attribute in the representative sample, and households did not accept more risk in exchange for shorter payback.

Investment costs and certainty of payback time are the strongest attributes. This has direct implications for policy and market actors. Measures that lower upfront costs, such as subsidies or tax rebates, target the most important part of the household decision. Measures that stabilize or guarantee returns target the second most important attribute. This is relevant because current Dutch policies mainly affect payback time and self-consumption, certainty of payback time is affected only indirectly. Barely any policies affect investment costs and certainty of payback time directly. Grid operators could use this insight by offering contracts that give households more certain returns in exchange for control over battery operation to stabilize grids.

The attributes do not tell the full picture. Comparing the representative and solar samples shows that targeting the right households can shift choice probabilities by a similar magnitude as large attribute changes. Actors seeking to promote adoption should therefore not only improve the battery proposition, but also focus on groups already more willing to adopt.

The results should be read within the limits of the method. The experiment simplifies a complex real-world decision, measures stated rather than actual choices, and only tests the included attributes. Future work should expand and formalize the attribute selection, test transferability across countries, quantify how policies change home battery attributes, and connect these preference estimates to diffusion models that translate attribute changes into capacity growth. ... Read more

Energy cooperatives are non-profit civil society organisations that promote the energy transition by mobilizing public backing and increasing private investment. However, energy cooperatives often face various challenges that hinder their success. Within literature, it appears that the barrier professionalisation has to be addressed to allow them to engage in more (complex) projects towards the energy transition.

However, professionalisation remains a vaguely defined concept in the energy cooperative literature. Based on literature and interviews with representatives of organisations that work with cooperatives on a daily basis, the description of ‘organisational capacity’ of cooperatives matches professionalisation. Organisational capacity consists of leadership capacity, adaptive capacity, management capacity and technical capacity. Especially leadership capacity appears to require special attention for young cooperatives.

Furthermore, another question that arises with professionalisation is that, given the extent it can be a barrier for energy cooperatives to professionalise, if there is not an alternative route with lower complexity. It is argued that professionalisation is mainly needed to allow cooperatives to expand project portfolio and complexity while assuring long-term sustainability of the organisation. Options for collaboration as a substitute for professionalisation typically do not cover issues in leadership capacity and focus more on managerial and technical capacity. Other alternatives are stagnation, exit or merging – yet these carry significant barriers that can harm the community and its involvement.

Further analysis has been conducted to understand the success factors and barriers that need to be addressed for professionalisation to occur. A set of ‘professionalisation pathways’ help cooperative boards understand what developmental pathways cooperatives typically take. The pathways include an innovator pathway, broad local pathway, and a local energy efficiency and savings pathway. Each has their own requirements for professionalisation. A plurality of success factors for professionalisation are identified, matching these pathways. It appears that strategic thinking is an essential first step towards a professional organisation yet lacking in cooperative boards, and therefore needs to be prioritised.

However, one thought that inevitably follows here is how one might address insufficient strategic thinking of board members. There are a variety of options, yet the format of a serious game could stimulate long-term strategic thinking. As a result, the cooperative game called ‘EcoCoop: road to 2035’ was created. After a draft was made, the game was optimized through testing with students. The resulting game ‘EcoCoop: road to 2035’ was expected to support strategic thinking, as it enticed players to think further ahead as a team: players are required in-game to invest in organisational capacity in order to execute projects and vice versa and prepare for upcoming technologies, all in order to meet goals specified for in approximately 10 years.

Whether the game can actually increase strategic thinking in board members was evaluated through 4 tests with energy cooperative board members using the Triadic Game Philosophy, which includes the dimensions of reality, meaning and play. The results indicate that the game might help cooperatives think strategically towards long-term goals, however, the study points to the need to increase playability to motivate deeper strategic thinking.
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The Netherlands is exposed to fluvial and pluvial flooding aggravated by the subsidence of the land, which pose significant threats to the population. Flood risks due to climate change are a growing concern, especially in urban and riverine areas. The responsibility for the consequences of extreme weather events lies unidirectionally on the shoulders of the state, which can no longer guarantee the safety of its inhabitants. This thesis explores the use of serious games as a tool to enhance municipal flood risk communication and community adaptability in order to achieve a shared responsibility.

The research is carried out using the "WhereWeMove" serious game case study, developed to simulate flood scenarios and the homeowner’s decision-making process involved in flood risk management. The thesis seeks to answer the following research questions: How can municipalities use gaming, such as "WhereWeMove," to communicate with residents about the flood risks and related house adaptive measures? What are the implications of using such a gaming approach for the municipality? How can municipalities better involve citizens in co- creating flood risk management strategies through gaming?

To meet the research objective, a theoretical framework was used as a reference to identify key influential categories for the adoption of innovations by government organizations. The reference framework outlines five categories, with a focus on the organizational, individual, and innovation categories. The environmental category was primarily used as criteria for selecting the area of interest for this study, while the inter-organizational category was narrowed down to communication and co-creation practices, aligning with the focus of the WhereWeMove game.

To explore the way and extent in which the WhereWeMove game could be used as a communication tool, this thesis addresses the research questions through a dual qualitative analysis. The first step aimed to identify the extent to which co-creation is facilitated, based on results from a preliminary WhereWeMove session with students, conducted prior to playing the game with residents. The second step involved conducting interviews with municipal staff involved in planning adaptation strategies, to explore the perceived drivers and barriers to adopting the WhereWeMove game in their current practices.

In conclusion, the thesis demonstrates the potential of serious games as a transformative tool in municipal flood risk communication. By using the model resulting from the practice and theory, organizations can identify the key influential factors and transform barriers into drivers in order to use serious games within their institutions. Engaging citizens through interactive debriefing and collaborative gaming experiences allows co-creation with municipalities, enabling them to work together to test and refine policies, ultimately fostering a culture of preparedness and shared responsibility. ... Read more

This research focuses on establishing the most effective way to provide flexible power generation via gas turbines with hydrogen in 2040 from a techno-economic perspective. Assisting policymakers and energy companies in making informed decisions about future strategies. The increase in intermittent renewable energy capacity increases the pressure for flexible, dispatchable energy generation to bridge gaps when solar or wind energy is unavailable. Currently this flexible power generation can be produced via Combined Cycle Gas Turbines (CCGT) that run on natural gas, producing green house gasses in the process.
To conduct this research, a multi-criteria analysis is performed on the CCGT in Moerdijk for the year 2040. Comparing an alternative relying on blue hydrogen, one relying on green hydrogen, and one relying on a blend of blue and green hydrogen against the continuation of running on natural gas. This method established a systematical approach to evaluate and compare different alternatives based on multiple criteria, while aiding to narrow the knowledge gap in understanding the combined effect that different technologies have on flexible power generation. This analysis resulted in the continuation on natural gas as a fuel for the CCGT being the top performer. However, assuming the need for a sustainable alternative, the top performer was different for each of the three forecasts. In the forecast with a low installed capacity of renewable energy, the top performing option is to use blue hydrogen as a fuel. In the central forecast, the alternative that combines blue and green hydrogen as a fuel is the top performer, in the high forecast, green hydrogen takes the lead.
Two sensitivity analyses, decreasing the impact of capital expenditure and overall system efficiency in the analysis, revealed a decrease in the performance of natural gas and an increased performance of green hydrogen alternative. The results show that the lack of adaptability problems and capital expenditure outweigh the large CO2 emissions and CO2 related costs of the continuation of using natural gas as a fuel. Regulations or incentives to decrease the capital expenditure of alternatives running on hydrogen can greatly stimulate the development towards more sustainable flexible power generation.
The energy demand for the CCGT in Moerdijk in 2040 is determined based on three different forecasts for the year 2040. Using electricity data from the CCGT in Moerdijk, along Dutch energy data from 2023, three running profiles are established. This revealed that the running profiles are bound by the limitations of the CCGT across the forecast.
For each of these alternatives, the total annual cost is calculated by optimising the production capacity of hydrogen storage, the storage capacity, and the hydrogen flow for each hour throughout the year.
To reveal the problems and opportunities associated with implementing the alternatives for the year 2040, interviews with professionals in the energy sector are conducted. These interviews showed great challenges towards the technical and infrastructural adaptability of implementation of the hydrogen based alternatives, and great challenges for the alternative on natural gas from operational longevity and dependability perspective.
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Due to the ecological consequences and increased resource insecurity caused by the depletion of natural resources of the incumbent linear economy, the Netherlands aims for a fully circular economy in 2050. To guide this transition from a linear to circular economy, strategies need to be made. An approach which enables actors to create these strategies is participatory backcasting. This process needs to be supported by several tools, including (social) engagement and design tools. The aim of this thesis is to explore how serious games can be used as these tools and what its effects are. By expanding the tools available for participatory backcasting, practitioners can use different tools appropriate for different settings.
Using a research-through-design approach, a serious game was developed to create circular visions on business parks. Two research workshops were conducted to test the of the game on the (social) engagement and vision design. In this, the thesis introduces a framework to measure (social) engagement, consisting of the three dimensions (1) game experience, (2) learning, and (3) perceived level of influence.
The results of the game experience indicate a positive effect on (social) engagement as the components related to high engagement scored relatively high and the results related to low engagement scored relatively low. Furthermore, the results of the learning dimensions showed that almost all participants have learnt about circularity. Finally, most participants indicated that they had a high degree of influence, one student indicated some degree of influence and one stating a little influence. This all showed that the participants were willing to have emotions and thoughts towards the workshop and were willing to affect the results of the final vision. This leads to the conclusion the outcome of this research would indicate that the use of a serious game can have a positive effect on (social) engagement.
The games effect on the vision design was tested using two dimensions: participant satisfaction and a vision evaluation. Participant satisfaction was tested using self reporting in the postquestionnaire. The vision evaluation was conducting using the criteria set by Van den Voorn et al. (2017): (1) presence of transformative elements, and (2) presence of goals and guiding targets.
The results for participant satisfaction with the developed vision range from neutral to high satisfaction. Furthermore, only one (stakeholder) participant indicated they wanted to change the vision developed during the game. However, the change was more incremental rather than disruptive. The vision analysis showed that all four visions contained transformative elements, while clear guiding goals and targets were absent. However, there were clear guiding themes in the stakeholder vision that could result in goals and targets in a follow up session. It is possible that this was due to the game used in the research.
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The energy transition is a pressing and widely debated topic in society and is creating global challenges. As the switch is made to sustainable energy carriers, more pressure is being put on to our electricity grids and the network operators managing them. They, however, face the uncertain future capacity needs of the grid and operate in a complex socio-technical system. The energy transition will require many collaborations and interactions which suggests a new decision-making process to facilitate the energy transition. An insight into the current decision-making processes of these network operators is however still lacking in literature and remains an open question. Therefore, in this thesis, I develop a conceptual model of the decision-making process by network operators for long term decisions under uncertain conditions. To achieve this aim, I first collected data about the decision-making system using semi-structured interviews of decision makers in the Dutch energy network. I then investigated models of decision-making in policy making, economic theory, and psychology literature and eventually chose the recognition primed decision-making (RPDM) model as fitting the most requirements. The model is built step by step and adapted to describe the analyzed decision-making system. The model is ultimately conceptualized in three layers: interactions between decision makers, individual decision-making, and changing problem perception. Significantly, the model is adapted to include the concept of a problem perception. The model has some limitations, as the face validation was not included in the modelling process and several mechanisms remain unspecified, such as the interactions between decision makers. Two decision situations that network operators themselves described facing in their current decision-making were used to run the model qualitatively. Given the limitations, the model was still able to provide insight into the decision-making of network operators. The model describes that decision makers respond to uncertainty by looking for more information, posing question to what extent reflection on the problem perception are also used to cope with uncertainty. The problem perception influences the model substantially, suggesting that a change in perception would make decisions such as the dilemma of prioritizing clients more adequate. Further implementation of the model is recommended to provide insight into the decision-making process to help facilitate the energy transition. ... Read more

Serious Games can be used for many purposes, including studying complex, socio-technical systems. They are claimed to provide new opportunities by bringing different knowledge and fields of expertise to the table. Combined with simulations that allow for observation of the evolving infrastructure under deeply uncertain conditions, they have the potential to be an effective research tool. An example of such a serious game is Infrarium - an adaptive cyber-physical game that addresses the challenge of collective decision-making toward emission neutrality in the energy transition process within the port. The enormous space of paths that players could follow and the complexity of interactions available raise the question of whether it is possible to create such an intervention method that would allow for steering the gameflow. This research addresses this question by introducing the concept of a Network of Puzzles based on which the Infrarium model is built. After concept evolution was done while searching for a suitable tool, the System Modelling Language (SysML) was chosen. The game was successfully represented in the conceptual model that captures the system's complexity sufficiently enough to provide the coherent structure of the game within which the clarity and traceability of connections provide a design space for future development as a tool for shaping the game flow. The results are presented in the form of SysML diagrams followed by a discussion about SysML as a supporting tool in model-driven game design, within which the possibility of further vertical elaboration with requirements and limitations is justified. We have proven that further development of the game elements should not jeopardize the existing functional level of the model. The SysML model in the presented form could be used to design an intervention method to shape players' experience during gameplay. ... Read more

The purpose of this study was to understand the effect of empathy in the project team on the outcome of the integrated design process of infrastructure projects. Despite years of experience, many infrastructure projects are still underperforming. Within the project lifecycle, the integrated design process has an important role in this. Empathy could be an important tool to improve the outcomes of the integrated design process through communication. This study represents one of the first steps towards a better understanding of this competency as an important tool for project success through the use of serious research gaming. The serious game Patchwork was designed and played for data collection. The research showed that empathy positively influences the degree to which people understand each other's information expectations and the communicative hindrance experienced due to logistical, interpersonal, or accessibility barriers. This is particularly determined by the cognitive side of empathy. In addition, this study shows that sufficient effective communication is necessary for solid project outcomes. Communication seems to serve as a prerequisite for a successful integrated design process. No demonstrable effect was found in the direct relationship of empathy and the outcome of the integrated design process. The line of empathy through communication is not reflected in the direct results. Additionally, this says that influences of empathy on the game results through other processes than communication cannot be demonstrated. However, this study cannot rule out that there was no positive effect of empathy on the outcomes of the integrated design process. Further research with larger datasets needs to conclude what the proportion is of other confounding variables being dominant in game success and how empathy relates to them. All in all, this research has taken first important steps toward recognizing the value of empathy in construction projects and it provides much reason for follow-up research into this topic. ... Read more

Menstruation is a natural and healthy monthly phenomenon for women. However, many women across India struggle with it. Due to a number of barriers, these women are not able to use sanitary products resulting in a risk of contracting reproductive tract infections (RTIs), also their self-esteem and self-confidence also gets affected. This has consequences: girls dropping out of school, women quitting work, reluctance to be part of social events and the infections leading to severe health related complications to name a few. Hence, social entrepreneurs in the field of menstrual hygiene management decided to address this social problem by establishing small-scale production units that make low-cost sanitary products and run awareness campaigns. However, the diffusion of these low-cost sanitary products remains very low. Therefore, raising questions about the sustainability of these small-scale production units that have cropped up across India. Thus, in this research, a conceptual framework is built to help understand the social innovation (SI) process of making and selling low-cost sanitary products, and clearly identify the salient factors that influence the diffusion of these sanitary products made by the small-scale production units for this complex market. Eight salient factors were identified that influenced the diffusion of low-cost sanitary products among women in India: relative advantage, complementary product & services, network & interpersonal ties, promotion platforms, intermediaries, social structure, political factors, cultural & psychological factors. Based on these findings, it led to five policy recommendations and three recommendations to the social enterprises. The policy recommendations are: i. Changes to GST exemption on sanitary products. ii. Central action committee to ensure consensus in promotion of sanitary products. iii. Revision in existing standards for sanitary products. iv. Sanitary waste management. v. Programming for menstrual health programs. While, the recommendations to the small-scale production units are: i Develop environment friendly sanitary products with more size and colour variations. ii. To improve the accessibility of the sanitary products. iii. To collaborate with other actors to build and run awareness programs. ... Read more

Serious games have the potential to be used as an innovative data collection method. Combining this with Discrete Choice Modelling (DCM) could create a methodology that provides insight into the player's behaviour and allows for creating a realistic simulation. This innovative Game and Choice Based Simulation (GCBS) methodology has been conducted and evaluated using the case of the Physical Internet inspired “Freight Transportation Game”. The bidding behaviour of players is analysed using DCM. Using the insights obtained from the estimated choice model, a decision support tool for carriers is defined as a policy to optimise the system’s performance. Hereafter, the DCM is implemented into a simulation based on the gameplay, creating a realistic simulation of the PI inspired transportation market. By conducting a simulation experiment with this innovative simulation, the policy could be successfully evaluated. Considering this case of application, the GCBS methodology proved its potential. Using insights obtained during the research, a framework for GCBS has been designed explaining when and how to conduct the methodology. More research needs to be done to test the (external) validity of the decision support tool and to test and extend the methodological framework in order to increase its robustness. ... Read more

In order to reduce CO2 emission, district heat networks and carbon-neutral heat energy production are being developed in the Netherlands. This resulted in an increasing amount of district heating systems (DHS) in the horticulture areas. A DHS in a region called the ”B3-Hoek” connects multiple producers with horticulture companies in a single-buyer market model with long term bilateral contracts. This market model has some undesirable aspects that contribute to the willingness of introducing a short term heat market model in the system. However, such a short term market is still prone to market failures, if producers have considerable market power. The aim of this research is to investigate how a short term market can be designed for a DHS in the Netherlands, how producers and large consumers behave on a short term market and how this affects the performance of the market. An interactive simulation of a short term heat market was created, based on the DHS in the B3-Hoek to investigate this.
The findings in this research give a conceptual model of the new market design and it showt that in a short term heat market prices will converge to marginal cost levels when market conditions are not tight. There is a balance of market power between the producers and the horticulture companies collectively. The results of short term market will not be comparable to the case of a perfectly competitive market due to Cournot competitive behaviour, but they can still be considered desirable for both horticulture companies and producers. ... Read more