This dissertation introduces a comprehensive end-to-end framework related to Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) strategy, with the goal of utilizing raw sensor (placed on a structure's components) data to make maintenance decisions for extending the structure's lifecycle. Th
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This dissertation introduces a comprehensive end-to-end framework related to Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) strategy, with the goal of utilizing raw sensor (placed on a structure's components) data to make maintenance decisions for extending the structure's lifecycle. The study addresses key challenges in PHM, such as dealing with high-dimensional, multi-modal data, extracting features, predicting Remaining Useful Life (RUL), managing uncertainty, modeling repair scenarios, and optimizing maintenance decisions. All these challenges are organized in phases. These phases are namely, i) data collection, ii) feature extraction, iii) Health Indicator (HI) construction, iv) prognostics, v) modeling of maintenance actions, and vi) Post-Prognosis Decision-Making (PPDM). Each phase of the PHM strategy is developed independently but integrated into a cohesive framework, ensuring modularity, transparency, and adaptability across diverse applications.
A major contribution to the framework is proving that neural networks, a preferable approach for handling complex data, can become interpretable, thus unveiling the black-box nature of such models. In this regard, the ISTRUST model, an interpretable Transformer-based architecture for predicting RUL directly from raw sequential image data of a structure under fatigue loads, is proposed. By leveraging attention mechanisms, the model captures critical spatiotemporal features of structural damage, offering insights into prediction accuracy and variability. The model's interpretability highlights the understanding of its predictions. Simultaneously, via this interpretation, it is shown that predicting RUL directly from high-dimensional raw data is challenging or even impossible, necessitating focusing on each phase of the PHM strategy separately instead of unifying the majority of the PHM strategy in one model.
Central to the framework is the development of the Deep Soft Monotonic Clustering (DSMC) model, designed to extract meaningful features and then construct HIs from multi-modal data. This model extracts monotonic features that are related to each component's degradation. Subsequently, it considers these features to perform monotonic clustering representing HIs and enables the integration of those HIs into prognostic models to predict RUL across diverse domains.
The dissertation further explores the impact of imperfect repairs on components, where repairs often leave the component in a state between fully restored and partially damaged. The health state of the component is measured via a stochastic recovery of the predicted RUL and a Bayesian inference-based model is employed to quantify this stochastic behavior. The imperfect repair (Bayesian) model can be also extended for multiple sequential repairs. This phase of the PHM strategy emphasizes the importance of understanding imperfect repair effectiveness to enhance maintenance strategies.
The final phase of the framework concerns PPDM. Given a set of maintenance actions, including replacements and imperfect repairs, and a set of operational conditions and constraints, PPDM is modeled as a Markov Decision Process and optimized via deep Reinforcement Learning. PPDM's ultimate target is to optimize the scheduling of maintenance actions proactively within a predefined horizon length.
Experimental validation is conducted on each of the proposed models. The ISTRUST model was validated on fatigue-loaded composite specimens, utilizing sequential raw image data taken by a camera. The DSMC model was tested using diverse datasets, including engineering and healthcare. The imperfect repair modeling was applied to tension-tension fatigue experiments on open-hole aluminum coupons, capturing stochastic recovery behavior after repairs. The same experiment was utilized for evaluating the PPDM framework.
Overall, a holistic end-to-end PHM framework lays the groundwork for advancing Condition-based Maintenance (CBM) strategies. By integrating advanced models for each phase of the PHM strategy, the research highlights practical opportunities for embedding PHM into CBM and encourages further innovation and refinement by other researchers in the field. Although the proposed PHM framework has been an initial attempt towards this direction, its capabilities can be further enhanced through improvements in data scalability, exploration of varied PPDM formulations, sensitivity analyses across PHM phases, and practical integration with CBM for broader system-level maintenance optimization.