P.W. Heijnen
Please Note
38 records found
1
A Fresh Start for Dutch Offshore Wind Energy
Multi-Agent Modelling of Contracts-for-Difference Designs for Offshore Wind Energy Auctions in the Netherlands
This study develops a method to model cost-optimal hydrogen transport networks for Cluster 6 industries using the Optimal Network Layout Tool (ONLT). Industry data was collected and categorised based on demand and distance to existing supply networks. K-means clustering was applied to create industry categories reflecting these characteristics, while DBSCAN clustering was used to group nearby companies and reduce model complexity. The ONLT was adapted to consider three transport modes: pipelines, vessels and trucks.
Results show that while pipelines and waterways are suitable for transporting large quantities of hydrogen, trucks are most cost-efficient for small-scale and flexible transport. The analysis of 291 companies confirms that most regional industries have relatively low hydrogen demand, which strengthens the role of trucks as last-mile solution. The study contributes by filling the gap in literature on regional hydrogen supply, showing how multimodal network design can support the decarbonisation of diverse industrial sectors. ...
This study develops a method to model cost-optimal hydrogen transport networks for Cluster 6 industries using the Optimal Network Layout Tool (ONLT). Industry data was collected and categorised based on demand and distance to existing supply networks. K-means clustering was applied to create industry categories reflecting these characteristics, while DBSCAN clustering was used to group nearby companies and reduce model complexity. The ONLT was adapted to consider three transport modes: pipelines, vessels and trucks.
Results show that while pipelines and waterways are suitable for transporting large quantities of hydrogen, trucks are most cost-efficient for small-scale and flexible transport. The analysis of 291 companies confirms that most regional industries have relatively low hydrogen demand, which strengthens the role of trucks as last-mile solution. The study contributes by filling the gap in literature on regional hydrogen supply, showing how multimodal network design can support the decarbonisation of diverse industrial sectors.
Robust Clustering Methods for 5GDHC Networks in Densely Populated Urban Areas
A Comparative Assessment for Different Participation Scenarios
Designing a Fully Renewable Electricity System for Bonaire
Integrating Flexibility to Balance Reliability, Affordability, sustainability and Energy Security
This thesis investigates how Bonaire can design a fully renewable electricity system that ensures reliability, affordability, sustainability, and energy security. Using an hourly optimization model developed in PyPSA, the island’s power system was simulated under two demand growth scenarios (3% and 6%) for 2030. The study compares a baseline solar–wind–storage system with several interventions: demand-side management (DSM), decentralized storage, dispatchable renewables such as Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) and Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC), and biodiesel backup as a transitional reliability option. Each scenario is evaluated using stakeholder-defined criteria and land-use and lifecycle-emission assessments.
The results show that a solar–wind–battery system can meet demand but remains weather-sensitive and costly. Incorporating DSM reduces peaks and total system costs by up to 22%, while decentralized storage improves local resilience with limited economic impact. OTEC provides the strongest reliability and energy security gains through stable, weather-independent baseload generation, and biodiesel ensures backup during rare stress events at minimal cost. All renewable scenarios sharply reduce emissions relative to the current diesel system, with PV requiring only 2–3 km² of land in low-ecological areas and OTEC being land-neutral.
The findings conclude that Bonaire’s most effective pathway is a balanced portfolio of solar, wind, CSP, storage, DSM, OTEC, and biodiesel. This integrated design delivers reliable, affordable, and sustainable electricity while preserving land and ecosystems. Future work should extend full-year simulations and assess institutional frameworks supporting flexible, resilient island energy transitions. ...
This thesis investigates how Bonaire can design a fully renewable electricity system that ensures reliability, affordability, sustainability, and energy security. Using an hourly optimization model developed in PyPSA, the island’s power system was simulated under two demand growth scenarios (3% and 6%) for 2030. The study compares a baseline solar–wind–storage system with several interventions: demand-side management (DSM), decentralized storage, dispatchable renewables such as Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) and Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC), and biodiesel backup as a transitional reliability option. Each scenario is evaluated using stakeholder-defined criteria and land-use and lifecycle-emission assessments.
The results show that a solar–wind–battery system can meet demand but remains weather-sensitive and costly. Incorporating DSM reduces peaks and total system costs by up to 22%, while decentralized storage improves local resilience with limited economic impact. OTEC provides the strongest reliability and energy security gains through stable, weather-independent baseload generation, and biodiesel ensures backup during rare stress events at minimal cost. All renewable scenarios sharply reduce emissions relative to the current diesel system, with PV requiring only 2–3 km² of land in low-ecological areas and OTEC being land-neutral.
The findings conclude that Bonaire’s most effective pathway is a balanced portfolio of solar, wind, CSP, storage, DSM, OTEC, and biodiesel. This integrated design delivers reliable, affordable, and sustainable electricity while preserving land and ecosystems. Future work should extend full-year simulations and assess institutional frameworks supporting flexible, resilient island energy transitions.
Detection of Conspiracy Theories on Telegram
Leveraging Graph Theory and Natural Language Processing for Influential Channel and content analysis
The first step involved modeling the network structure of Telegram channels using graph theory. Channels were represented as nodes, and forwarded messages as directed, weighted edges, allowing for the analysis of network structures and the identification of influential channels. Various centrality measures, including weighted degree centrality, betweenness centrality, and viral message centrality, were computed to assess the influence of channels within the network.
A fine-tuned multilingual BERT (m-BERT) model was used to classify Telegram messages as either conspiracy-related or not. This model was trained on a manually labeled dataset and demonstrated robust performance.
To identify specific conspiracy theories, BERTopic, a topic modeling technique, was applied to the messages classified as conspiracy-related. The resulting topics were then analyzed using the OpenAI API, which linked them to known conspiracy theories. The study found that all identified topics could be connected to existing conspiracy theories, suggesting that the model is effective in detecting these narratives on Telegram.
The research also included the validation of the model using a fictive conspiracy theory, "The Verdant Shadow Conspiracy," created specifically for this purpose. This validation demonstrated the model's ability to detect even simulated conspiracies, though it highlighted the importance of continuous refinement and expansion of the dataset.
The contributions of this thesis are twofold: scientifically, it advances the understanding of how to model and analyze Telegram networks to detect conspiracy theories, and societally, it offers a framework that can be used to monitor and potentially mitigate the spread of harmful misinformation. Future research should focus on expanding the dataset, refining the model, and exploring interdisciplinary approaches to further enhance the detection and understanding of conspiracy theories on Telegram. ...
The first step involved modeling the network structure of Telegram channels using graph theory. Channels were represented as nodes, and forwarded messages as directed, weighted edges, allowing for the analysis of network structures and the identification of influential channels. Various centrality measures, including weighted degree centrality, betweenness centrality, and viral message centrality, were computed to assess the influence of channels within the network.
A fine-tuned multilingual BERT (m-BERT) model was used to classify Telegram messages as either conspiracy-related or not. This model was trained on a manually labeled dataset and demonstrated robust performance.
To identify specific conspiracy theories, BERTopic, a topic modeling technique, was applied to the messages classified as conspiracy-related. The resulting topics were then analyzed using the OpenAI API, which linked them to known conspiracy theories. The study found that all identified topics could be connected to existing conspiracy theories, suggesting that the model is effective in detecting these narratives on Telegram.
The research also included the validation of the model using a fictive conspiracy theory, "The Verdant Shadow Conspiracy," created specifically for this purpose. This validation demonstrated the model's ability to detect even simulated conspiracies, though it highlighted the importance of continuous refinement and expansion of the dataset.
The contributions of this thesis are twofold: scientifically, it advances the understanding of how to model and analyze Telegram networks to detect conspiracy theories, and societally, it offers a framework that can be used to monitor and potentially mitigate the spread of harmful misinformation. Future research should focus on expanding the dataset, refining the model, and exploring interdisciplinary approaches to further enhance the detection and understanding of conspiracy theories on Telegram.
Towards Sustainable and Passenger-Centric Airline Networks
An Optimization Approach to Airline Network Design with Climate Impact & Passenger Preferences
Given these complexities, it is clear that airline network design must go beyond just cost and environ- mental considerations. Integrating the passenger perspective is crucial for developing a network that meets both operational goals and customer satisfaction. This leads to the need for a more holistic modeling approach that combines three key objectives: minimizing costs, reducing environmental impact, and accommodating passenger preferences. The proposed modeling approach in this research aims to address this challenge by developing an optimization model that integrates the economic goal of cost minimization with the environmental objective of reducing CO2 emissions and the service-oriented goal of satisfying passenger preferences, particularly in terms of departure times. To support the development of this comprehensive optimization model, a thorough literature review was conducted to identify the specific criteria necessary for integrating environmental considerations and passenger preferences into airline network design. This review focused on understanding the environmental impacts of aviation, particularly CO2 emissions, and the various strategies airlines can adopt to mitigate these effects. Additionally, it explored the importance of passenger preferences, with a particular emphasis on departure times, as a critical factor that can influence network design. Following the literature review, existing hub location models were analyzed to assess their applicability in this context. While traditional models are effective for optimizing cost-driven networks, they often fall short in addressing the additional layers of complexity introduced by environmental and passenger considerations. The research identified specific needs arising from these considerations, such as the need to account for CO2 emissions linked to flight frequency and the importance of aligning flight schedules with passenger preferences. To address these gaps, the models were adapted and extended, incorporating these new objectives to create a more holistic approach to airline network design. The developed model was then tested using the well-known CAB dataset, a benchmark in hub location research. The testing phase included both single-objective optimization, where each of the three objectives (cost, environment, and passenger preferences) was optimized individually, and multi-objective optimization, where the model sought to balance all three objectives simultaneously. This approach allowed for a comprehensive evaluation of the model’s effectiveness in producing network designs that meet the diverse needs of airlines in today’s complex operational environment. This research provides a significant contribution to the field of airline network design by introducing an optimization model that harmonizes the often conflicting goals of economic efficiency, environmental sustainability, and passenger satisfaction. Through an integrative approach that accounts for the complexities of modern airline operations, this study advances the understanding of how these diverse objectives can be balanced within a single framework. The proposed model, tested using an established dataset, demonstrates its potential to influence both academic discourse and practical applications by offering a more nuanced understanding of the trade-offs inherent in network design. Moreover, this work highlights the broader social and scientific relevance of incorporating environmental and passenger-centric considerations into strategic planning, urging a shift towards more sustainable and responsive practices in the aviation industry. ...
Given these complexities, it is clear that airline network design must go beyond just cost and environ- mental considerations. Integrating the passenger perspective is crucial for developing a network that meets both operational goals and customer satisfaction. This leads to the need for a more holistic modeling approach that combines three key objectives: minimizing costs, reducing environmental impact, and accommodating passenger preferences. The proposed modeling approach in this research aims to address this challenge by developing an optimization model that integrates the economic goal of cost minimization with the environmental objective of reducing CO2 emissions and the service-oriented goal of satisfying passenger preferences, particularly in terms of departure times. To support the development of this comprehensive optimization model, a thorough literature review was conducted to identify the specific criteria necessary for integrating environmental considerations and passenger preferences into airline network design. This review focused on understanding the environmental impacts of aviation, particularly CO2 emissions, and the various strategies airlines can adopt to mitigate these effects. Additionally, it explored the importance of passenger preferences, with a particular emphasis on departure times, as a critical factor that can influence network design. Following the literature review, existing hub location models were analyzed to assess their applicability in this context. While traditional models are effective for optimizing cost-driven networks, they often fall short in addressing the additional layers of complexity introduced by environmental and passenger considerations. The research identified specific needs arising from these considerations, such as the need to account for CO2 emissions linked to flight frequency and the importance of aligning flight schedules with passenger preferences. To address these gaps, the models were adapted and extended, incorporating these new objectives to create a more holistic approach to airline network design. The developed model was then tested using the well-known CAB dataset, a benchmark in hub location research. The testing phase included both single-objective optimization, where each of the three objectives (cost, environment, and passenger preferences) was optimized individually, and multi-objective optimization, where the model sought to balance all three objectives simultaneously. This approach allowed for a comprehensive evaluation of the model’s effectiveness in producing network designs that meet the diverse needs of airlines in today’s complex operational environment. This research provides a significant contribution to the field of airline network design by introducing an optimization model that harmonizes the often conflicting goals of economic efficiency, environmental sustainability, and passenger satisfaction. Through an integrative approach that accounts for the complexities of modern airline operations, this study advances the understanding of how these diverse objectives can be balanced within a single framework. The proposed model, tested using an established dataset, demonstrates its potential to influence both academic discourse and practical applications by offering a more nuanced understanding of the trade-offs inherent in network design. Moreover, this work highlights the broader social and scientific relevance of incorporating environmental and passenger-centric considerations into strategic planning, urging a shift towards more sustainable and responsive practices in the aviation industry.
Clustering buildings with ATES systems to improve Amsterdam’s Fifth Generation Heating and Cooling Network
A sustainable heating and cooling solution for a densely populated urban area
A potential solution is a fifth-generation district heating and cooling (5GDHC) network, an energy system that provides both heating and cooling to buildings using external energy. This is possible due to a low temperature heat carrier in combination with bidirectional operation. Heating and cooling can be exchanged between buildings within the network, reducing the need for external energy. A 5GDHC network for a large city requires clustering of the buildings to create smaller networks, which can later be connected. Clustering allows for a bottom-up approach, reducing both the investment risks and the overload risk. A benefit of 5GDHC is the possibility to use aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES), where thermal energy is stored underground. However, research on 5GDHC, particularly on large-scale implementation, is scarce. Dividing buildings into clusters is crucial for large-scale implementation, since it reduces the investment and overload risk, but the best methods are unknown.
Additionally, the possibility of implementing ATES is not considered in research during the clustering process. This research investigates a method to cluster buildings and integrate ATES systems within these clusters. The goal is to create compact clusters to minimize the use of space in the already crowded subsurface. The clusters must also have a high demand fulfillment, meaning the heating and cooling demands must be fulfilled as much as possible within the cluster, either through energy
exchange between buildings or through the use of storage. A higher demand fulfillment reduces the need for external energy. The developed method clusters buildings based on their geographical location using both k-means and equal size k-means to ensure compactness.After this, ATES systems are implemented in the clusters, which can only be placed in available open space. The model results indicate that implementing ATES systems can increase the demand fulfillment from 1.4% to 58.6% for the entire center of Amsterdam, if buildings are insulated to a level fit for low temperature heating. The results show that very compact areas struggle more to meet heating demand. k-means outperforms equal size k-means in both compactness and demand fulfillment, making it the recommended method. The findings suggest that a 5GDHC network with ATES implementation has significant potential, with the most potential for clusters in the east and northwest. The identified method is robust, adaptable to various geographical regions, and particularly effective in densely populated urban areas with limited space and high demand. In conclusion, this research contributes to the fields of aquifer thermal energy storage and fifth generation district heating and cooling. It not only fills critical gaps in existing literature but also provides a practical methodology for optimizing urban energy systems. This approach holds promise for supporting initiatives like the ‘High-hanging fruit’ project by the AMS Institute, assisting sustainable urban heating solutions in Amsterdam and beyond.
...
A potential solution is a fifth-generation district heating and cooling (5GDHC) network, an energy system that provides both heating and cooling to buildings using external energy. This is possible due to a low temperature heat carrier in combination with bidirectional operation. Heating and cooling can be exchanged between buildings within the network, reducing the need for external energy. A 5GDHC network for a large city requires clustering of the buildings to create smaller networks, which can later be connected. Clustering allows for a bottom-up approach, reducing both the investment risks and the overload risk. A benefit of 5GDHC is the possibility to use aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES), where thermal energy is stored underground. However, research on 5GDHC, particularly on large-scale implementation, is scarce. Dividing buildings into clusters is crucial for large-scale implementation, since it reduces the investment and overload risk, but the best methods are unknown.
Additionally, the possibility of implementing ATES is not considered in research during the clustering process. This research investigates a method to cluster buildings and integrate ATES systems within these clusters. The goal is to create compact clusters to minimize the use of space in the already crowded subsurface. The clusters must also have a high demand fulfillment, meaning the heating and cooling demands must be fulfilled as much as possible within the cluster, either through energy
exchange between buildings or through the use of storage. A higher demand fulfillment reduces the need for external energy. The developed method clusters buildings based on their geographical location using both k-means and equal size k-means to ensure compactness.After this, ATES systems are implemented in the clusters, which can only be placed in available open space. The model results indicate that implementing ATES systems can increase the demand fulfillment from 1.4% to 58.6% for the entire center of Amsterdam, if buildings are insulated to a level fit for low temperature heating. The results show that very compact areas struggle more to meet heating demand. k-means outperforms equal size k-means in both compactness and demand fulfillment, making it the recommended method. The findings suggest that a 5GDHC network with ATES implementation has significant potential, with the most potential for clusters in the east and northwest. The identified method is robust, adaptable to various geographical regions, and particularly effective in densely populated urban areas with limited space and high demand. In conclusion, this research contributes to the fields of aquifer thermal energy storage and fifth generation district heating and cooling. It not only fills critical gaps in existing literature but also provides a practical methodology for optimizing urban energy systems. This approach holds promise for supporting initiatives like the ‘High-hanging fruit’ project by the AMS Institute, assisting sustainable urban heating solutions in Amsterdam and beyond.
Hydrogen infrastructure planning under uncertainty in an industrial port cluster
A robust over time approach
Hydrogen has the potential to reduce carbon emissions in industries such as chemicals, glass, iron and steel, as well as to serve as a cleaner heat source. To reach net-zero emissions by 2050, sectors that currently use fossil fuels for high-temperature processes and as feedstock will likely need to shift towards blue or green hydrogen. Currently, some industrial hydrogen use relies on gray hydrogen, produced from fossil fuels and contributing to emissions. In contrast, blue hydrogen captures and stores CO2 produced from fossil sources, while green hydrogen is entirely emissions-free, generated from renewable energy. In other words, some processes need to change from gray to green/blue but most of them need to change from other fossil fuel based processes to hydrogen processes.
Hydrogen offers a way to cut carbon emissions in industries like chemicals, glass, iron, and steel, and can also act as a cleaner heat source. Achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 will likely require sectors that currently depend on fossil fuels for high-temperature applications and feedstocks to adopt blue or green hydrogen instead. Today, certain industrial applications still use gray hydrogen, derived from fossil fuels and contributing to carbon emissions. However, blue hydrogen captures and stores the CO2 generated, while green hydrogen is emissions-free, produced using renewable energy. In essence, some processes will need to transition from gray to blue or green hydrogen, while many others will shift from fossil-fuel-based processes to hydrogen-based alternatives.
However, the timing and extent of the hydrogen transition are uncertain as they are heavily influenced by external factors such as hydrogen prices, available subsidies, and alternative decarbonization options. Additionally, industrial plant owners may be reluctant to disclose decarbonization plans due to competitive pressures, adding another layer of demand and participant uncertainty that complicates infrastructure planning.
This thesis addresses the planning of hydrogen infrastructure within an industrial port cluster (IPC). IPCs are defined by their proximity to water and concentration of industrial activities related to a specific sector. In order to effectively address spatial constraints, this thesis will plan the hydrogen networks along the current road network within IPCs. Current infrastructure planning methods have a time horizon of ten years. However, as the expectation is that the hydrogen demand will increase towards 2055, a time horizon of ten years can increase the total costs of the network when the network is implemented over time between 2025-2055. This introduces the following research question:
“How can a cost-efficient, robust pipeline network for an industrial port cluster be developed over time under uncertainty?”
To answer this question, the robust backtracking planning method (RBPM) is developed. This method aims to minimize costs over the 2025-2055 time frame while facilitating the hydrogen to the demanding plants. Because the demand for hydrogen is likely to grow over time, this method finds a robust network that is able to facilitate the demand in many possible future demand scenarios of 2055.
The robust network is then implemented incrementally for 2035, 2045, and 2055 using a backtracking approach. In this context, backtracking means that when an industrial plant transitions to hydrogen in one stage, pipelines are installed with the robust networks’ capacity, rather than just the minimum required to meet that plant’s immediate needs. This extra capacity ensures that if other plants transition in later years, the existing network can accommodate the increased demand without needing costly pipeline extensions. By preemptively building capacity, this approach reduces future installation costs and enhances the network’s ability to adapt to evolving demand patterns.
The RBPM is tested on simulations of multiple simplified IPCs. By testing different IPC simulations, it is studied how the difference in industrial plants determines the development of the network. The RBPM is compared to the results of a traditional planning approach which only plans the networks with a time horizon of ten years.
The results show that the RBPM incurs lower costs over 30 years, but it requires a higher investment in 2035 due to the greater capacity installed at that time. This thesis finds that the total potential hydrogen demand and the physical size of an IPC significantly affect the performance of the RBPM compared to the traditional planning approach. Additionally, the projected installation and operational costs over time also impact the RBPM’s performance relative to the traditional planning approach.
For IPCs with comparatively low hydrogen demand — typically clusters with fewer iron and steel facilities, chemical plants, or refineries — the RBPM emerges as the most economical approach. This method requires only slightly higher investment by 2035 but ultimately generates substantial savings by 2055. By installing sufficient pipeline capacity upfront, the RBPM avoids the need for additional pipelines every ten years, leading to long-term cost efficiency through 2055.
For IPCs with high hydrogen demand—typically found in iron and steel plants, basic chemical plants, or refineries—the initial installation costs and ongoing operational expenses of RBPM make it less advantageous. While RBPM may offer slightly better economic profitability over a 30-year period, the substantial investment required in 2035 compared to traditional planning makes implementation challenging due to budget constraints. In these high-demand clusters, the decision between RBPM and the traditional approach for developing a hydrogen pipeline network depends on the cluster’s budget, anticipated future installation costs, and projected operational expenses over time.
Opportunities for further research include the application of the RBPM to a real case study to validate the result, increasing the amount of possible future scenarios by incorporating uncertainty in installation and operating costs and increasing the demand and participant uncertainty range. Lastly, another research direction to explore is the generation of different robust network methods and their performance.
...
Hydrogen has the potential to reduce carbon emissions in industries such as chemicals, glass, iron and steel, as well as to serve as a cleaner heat source. To reach net-zero emissions by 2050, sectors that currently use fossil fuels for high-temperature processes and as feedstock will likely need to shift towards blue or green hydrogen. Currently, some industrial hydrogen use relies on gray hydrogen, produced from fossil fuels and contributing to emissions. In contrast, blue hydrogen captures and stores CO2 produced from fossil sources, while green hydrogen is entirely emissions-free, generated from renewable energy. In other words, some processes need to change from gray to green/blue but most of them need to change from other fossil fuel based processes to hydrogen processes.
Hydrogen offers a way to cut carbon emissions in industries like chemicals, glass, iron, and steel, and can also act as a cleaner heat source. Achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 will likely require sectors that currently depend on fossil fuels for high-temperature applications and feedstocks to adopt blue or green hydrogen instead. Today, certain industrial applications still use gray hydrogen, derived from fossil fuels and contributing to carbon emissions. However, blue hydrogen captures and stores the CO2 generated, while green hydrogen is emissions-free, produced using renewable energy. In essence, some processes will need to transition from gray to blue or green hydrogen, while many others will shift from fossil-fuel-based processes to hydrogen-based alternatives.
However, the timing and extent of the hydrogen transition are uncertain as they are heavily influenced by external factors such as hydrogen prices, available subsidies, and alternative decarbonization options. Additionally, industrial plant owners may be reluctant to disclose decarbonization plans due to competitive pressures, adding another layer of demand and participant uncertainty that complicates infrastructure planning.
This thesis addresses the planning of hydrogen infrastructure within an industrial port cluster (IPC). IPCs are defined by their proximity to water and concentration of industrial activities related to a specific sector. In order to effectively address spatial constraints, this thesis will plan the hydrogen networks along the current road network within IPCs. Current infrastructure planning methods have a time horizon of ten years. However, as the expectation is that the hydrogen demand will increase towards 2055, a time horizon of ten years can increase the total costs of the network when the network is implemented over time between 2025-2055. This introduces the following research question:
“How can a cost-efficient, robust pipeline network for an industrial port cluster be developed over time under uncertainty?”
To answer this question, the robust backtracking planning method (RBPM) is developed. This method aims to minimize costs over the 2025-2055 time frame while facilitating the hydrogen to the demanding plants. Because the demand for hydrogen is likely to grow over time, this method finds a robust network that is able to facilitate the demand in many possible future demand scenarios of 2055.
The robust network is then implemented incrementally for 2035, 2045, and 2055 using a backtracking approach. In this context, backtracking means that when an industrial plant transitions to hydrogen in one stage, pipelines are installed with the robust networks’ capacity, rather than just the minimum required to meet that plant’s immediate needs. This extra capacity ensures that if other plants transition in later years, the existing network can accommodate the increased demand without needing costly pipeline extensions. By preemptively building capacity, this approach reduces future installation costs and enhances the network’s ability to adapt to evolving demand patterns.
The RBPM is tested on simulations of multiple simplified IPCs. By testing different IPC simulations, it is studied how the difference in industrial plants determines the development of the network. The RBPM is compared to the results of a traditional planning approach which only plans the networks with a time horizon of ten years.
The results show that the RBPM incurs lower costs over 30 years, but it requires a higher investment in 2035 due to the greater capacity installed at that time. This thesis finds that the total potential hydrogen demand and the physical size of an IPC significantly affect the performance of the RBPM compared to the traditional planning approach. Additionally, the projected installation and operational costs over time also impact the RBPM’s performance relative to the traditional planning approach.
For IPCs with comparatively low hydrogen demand — typically clusters with fewer iron and steel facilities, chemical plants, or refineries — the RBPM emerges as the most economical approach. This method requires only slightly higher investment by 2035 but ultimately generates substantial savings by 2055. By installing sufficient pipeline capacity upfront, the RBPM avoids the need for additional pipelines every ten years, leading to long-term cost efficiency through 2055.
For IPCs with high hydrogen demand—typically found in iron and steel plants, basic chemical plants, or refineries—the initial installation costs and ongoing operational expenses of RBPM make it less advantageous. While RBPM may offer slightly better economic profitability over a 30-year period, the substantial investment required in 2035 compared to traditional planning makes implementation challenging due to budget constraints. In these high-demand clusters, the decision between RBPM and the traditional approach for developing a hydrogen pipeline network depends on the cluster’s budget, anticipated future installation costs, and projected operational expenses over time.
Opportunities for further research include the application of the RBPM to a real case study to validate the result, increasing the amount of possible future scenarios by incorporating uncertainty in installation and operating costs and increasing the demand and participant uncertainty range. Lastly, another research direction to explore is the generation of different robust network methods and their performance.
Realisation of green freight: a comparative analysis of alternative fuels in road freight transport
Evaluating Electric Battery Trucks, Hydrogen, and Bio-LNG trucks
In order to identify the impacts of the Hyperloop network design in the global transportation sector, a literature review was conducted on the transformative potential of the Hyperloop. Key strengths were identified as a reduction in travel times and low operational emissions. On the other hand, the high capital resources required and the uncertainty around the safety of technology were the main points of criticism. In order to analyze the potential demand for Hyperloop and model the modal shift, a Multi- Nominal Logit was employed where a utility function was formulated for the total benefit passengers receive upon completing a trip. The key attributes for the utility function were selected as travel time, travel costs, number of transfers, and safety perception, in alignment with previous studies on the subjects. A utility-based probabilistic mode choice was determined for the available demand. A multi-objective optimization problem was formulated for the facility-location network design of Hyperloop.
The decision variables of the model were formulated as the decision to open a Hyperloop hub at a location and the decision to build infrastructure between the selected Hyperloop hubs. The model output is an alternate network optimized for four different objective functions. These objectives are determined to be (1) Utility Maximization, (2) Probability of Purchase Maximization, (3) Emission Minimization, and (4) Revenue Maximization as these factors were determined to be key performance indicators in a prospective Hyperloop network. The model aims to provide the decision-makers with an overview of the trade-offs involved with varying objective criteria considered in the network generation.
A case study was created to test the model within Europe. The main aim of the case study is to assess the economic and environmental impacts of the Hyperloop system and provide recommendations to policymakers regarding the conception of the Hyperloop network within the European Union. The case study employs the NUTS classification and excludes European countries where the demand data is incomplete and focuses on countries within the TEN-T network. Furthermore, three categories of experimental scenarios were set up to assess the sensitivity of the model to parameter values. The categories are (1) pricing strategy scenarios, (2) safety perception scenarios and (3) policy intervention scenarios. The findings reveal significant disparities in network characteristics based on different objective criteria. The Utility Maximization objective focuses on maximizing trip utility, leading to a network design with direct links between hubs, resulting in compact networks and lower infrastructure costs. However, Spain and Italy have lower priority in this design. On the other hand, the other three objectives (probability of purchase maximization, emission minimization, and revenue maximization) yield networks with a minimum-spanning tree pattern. These networks outperform the utility maximization network in terms of attracting passengers, reducing emissions, and economic performance. To maximize societal benefits, it is recommended to prioritize the remaining three objectives. The study finds that Hyperloop becomes more competitive for longer-distance trips. Experimentation with ticket prices, safety perception, and policy interventions demonstrates their influence on modal share, revenue stability, and carbon emissions. Higher ticket prices discourage Hyperloop usage, safety perception plays a crucial role, and policies discouraging short-haul flights result in higher Hyperloop modal share and lower emissions. These findings highlight the importance of considering ticket prices, safety perception, and strategic policies to promote sustainable transportation and reduce carbon emissions through a modal shift to Hyperloop.
Future research opportunities include expanding the utility function to incorporate additional attributes affecting mode choices, exploring modal shifts from other modes to Hyperloop, relaxing assumptions about geographical obstacles and hub locations, integrating strategic and tactical planning, and validating the model with a broader range of origin-destination pairs. Computational performance can be enhanced using meta-heuristics to compare different heuristics for network outputs and efficiency.
...
In order to identify the impacts of the Hyperloop network design in the global transportation sector, a literature review was conducted on the transformative potential of the Hyperloop. Key strengths were identified as a reduction in travel times and low operational emissions. On the other hand, the high capital resources required and the uncertainty around the safety of technology were the main points of criticism. In order to analyze the potential demand for Hyperloop and model the modal shift, a Multi- Nominal Logit was employed where a utility function was formulated for the total benefit passengers receive upon completing a trip. The key attributes for the utility function were selected as travel time, travel costs, number of transfers, and safety perception, in alignment with previous studies on the subjects. A utility-based probabilistic mode choice was determined for the available demand. A multi-objective optimization problem was formulated for the facility-location network design of Hyperloop.
The decision variables of the model were formulated as the decision to open a Hyperloop hub at a location and the decision to build infrastructure between the selected Hyperloop hubs. The model output is an alternate network optimized for four different objective functions. These objectives are determined to be (1) Utility Maximization, (2) Probability of Purchase Maximization, (3) Emission Minimization, and (4) Revenue Maximization as these factors were determined to be key performance indicators in a prospective Hyperloop network. The model aims to provide the decision-makers with an overview of the trade-offs involved with varying objective criteria considered in the network generation.
A case study was created to test the model within Europe. The main aim of the case study is to assess the economic and environmental impacts of the Hyperloop system and provide recommendations to policymakers regarding the conception of the Hyperloop network within the European Union. The case study employs the NUTS classification and excludes European countries where the demand data is incomplete and focuses on countries within the TEN-T network. Furthermore, three categories of experimental scenarios were set up to assess the sensitivity of the model to parameter values. The categories are (1) pricing strategy scenarios, (2) safety perception scenarios and (3) policy intervention scenarios. The findings reveal significant disparities in network characteristics based on different objective criteria. The Utility Maximization objective focuses on maximizing trip utility, leading to a network design with direct links between hubs, resulting in compact networks and lower infrastructure costs. However, Spain and Italy have lower priority in this design. On the other hand, the other three objectives (probability of purchase maximization, emission minimization, and revenue maximization) yield networks with a minimum-spanning tree pattern. These networks outperform the utility maximization network in terms of attracting passengers, reducing emissions, and economic performance. To maximize societal benefits, it is recommended to prioritize the remaining three objectives. The study finds that Hyperloop becomes more competitive for longer-distance trips. Experimentation with ticket prices, safety perception, and policy interventions demonstrates their influence on modal share, revenue stability, and carbon emissions. Higher ticket prices discourage Hyperloop usage, safety perception plays a crucial role, and policies discouraging short-haul flights result in higher Hyperloop modal share and lower emissions. These findings highlight the importance of considering ticket prices, safety perception, and strategic policies to promote sustainable transportation and reduce carbon emissions through a modal shift to Hyperloop.
Future research opportunities include expanding the utility function to incorporate additional attributes affecting mode choices, exploring modal shifts from other modes to Hyperloop, relaxing assumptions about geographical obstacles and hub locations, integrating strategic and tactical planning, and validating the model with a broader range of origin-destination pairs. Computational performance can be enhanced using meta-heuristics to compare different heuristics for network outputs and efficiency.
Optimizing district heating networks: Exploring the solution space
Transporting geothermal energy to consumers in Delft
In some cases, geothermal energy is applied using a district heating network. A district heating network is an example of a system that provides heating and/or cooling capacities to a group of buildings [65]. A district heating network is a network of pipelines that transport the hot water from the geothermal well to the buildings in the district. A geothermal well in combination with a district heating network is developed in Delft [27]. The district heating network will deliver energy to the TU Delft campus, two neighborhoods in Delft and industry at the Schieweg in Delft [28].
Besides the district heating network in Delft, it is expected that district heating networks will be applied more often to accelerate the energy transition. Yun-Chao and Chen (2012) concluded that most optimization techniques optimize the whole system with its components. Less optimization techniques are applied to the sole components. Besides the fact that most optimization methods optimize the system as a whole, most optimization objectives only include optimizing the cost of the system. Also, effective optimization techniques are required as optimizing large graphs may be computationally time consuming [36]. In literature there are also clear signals that state that the trade-off between thermal comfort, and efficiency with respect to cost has to be tackled [53]. In this research, optimizing district heating networks for cost is compared to optimizing district heating to maximize thermal comfort or efficiency.
In this research two models are developed: a model that calculates the cost of the district heating network, and a model that calculates the thermal losses of the district heating network. Both models are applied to a district heating networks that is developed in a street network. Furthermore, multiple heuristics are applied to come up with better district heating networks. The optimization technique is tested on 100 small, randomly generated district heating networks. After that, the district heating network in Delft is optimized. The differences in cost, efficiency, etc. will be evaluated. Besides, the performances of the district heating networks are evaluated by introducing energy deficits under different conditions.
Optimizing the district heating networks for cost led to a very consistent result: When compared to their individual starting point, the district heating networks became cheaper and more efficient. A moderate-strong correlation is found between the the increase in efficiency and the decrease in cost while optimizing the district heating networks. In contrast to that, the networks that maximize efficiency are much more expensive than their cost optimized alternative, while the increase in efficiency is in most cases moderate. However, there are rare cases where the efficiency is increased much at a moderate increase in cost. This phenomenon is also found in Delft. Given the result that the efficient district heating network also performed much better than the cheapest alternative during energy deficits, in this research it is shown that choosing an objective function has a very large impact on the characteristics of the network. Therefore it is shown that for future district heating network optimization, it is important to trade off cost against efficiency. ...
In some cases, geothermal energy is applied using a district heating network. A district heating network is an example of a system that provides heating and/or cooling capacities to a group of buildings [65]. A district heating network is a network of pipelines that transport the hot water from the geothermal well to the buildings in the district. A geothermal well in combination with a district heating network is developed in Delft [27]. The district heating network will deliver energy to the TU Delft campus, two neighborhoods in Delft and industry at the Schieweg in Delft [28].
Besides the district heating network in Delft, it is expected that district heating networks will be applied more often to accelerate the energy transition. Yun-Chao and Chen (2012) concluded that most optimization techniques optimize the whole system with its components. Less optimization techniques are applied to the sole components. Besides the fact that most optimization methods optimize the system as a whole, most optimization objectives only include optimizing the cost of the system. Also, effective optimization techniques are required as optimizing large graphs may be computationally time consuming [36]. In literature there are also clear signals that state that the trade-off between thermal comfort, and efficiency with respect to cost has to be tackled [53]. In this research, optimizing district heating networks for cost is compared to optimizing district heating to maximize thermal comfort or efficiency.
In this research two models are developed: a model that calculates the cost of the district heating network, and a model that calculates the thermal losses of the district heating network. Both models are applied to a district heating networks that is developed in a street network. Furthermore, multiple heuristics are applied to come up with better district heating networks. The optimization technique is tested on 100 small, randomly generated district heating networks. After that, the district heating network in Delft is optimized. The differences in cost, efficiency, etc. will be evaluated. Besides, the performances of the district heating networks are evaluated by introducing energy deficits under different conditions.
Optimizing the district heating networks for cost led to a very consistent result: When compared to their individual starting point, the district heating networks became cheaper and more efficient. A moderate-strong correlation is found between the the increase in efficiency and the decrease in cost while optimizing the district heating networks. In contrast to that, the networks that maximize efficiency are much more expensive than their cost optimized alternative, while the increase in efficiency is in most cases moderate. However, there are rare cases where the efficiency is increased much at a moderate increase in cost. This phenomenon is also found in Delft. Given the result that the efficient district heating network also performed much better than the cheapest alternative during energy deficits, in this research it is shown that choosing an objective function has a very large impact on the characteristics of the network. Therefore it is shown that for future district heating network optimization, it is important to trade off cost against efficiency.
Creating Clusters in a 5th Generation District Heating and Cooling Network
An alternative to a neighbourhood-based approach
To initiate a new heat transition, it is crucial to adopt new sustainable and locally generated heat systems. A potential solution is the implementation of a 5th District Generation Heating and Cooling (5GDHC) network, which utilizes low-temperature heat and cold, potentially sourced from waste heat. However, the design and implementation of a 5GDHC network presents numerous challenges, including the absence of comprehensive guidelines and limited knowledge regarding the deployment of these systems on a larger scale or in an area with an older building stock. This research focuses on developing a tool that can identify potential clusters for a 5GDHC system in densely populated urban areas.
To achieve the research objective, a methodology is developed to identify clusters for a 5GDHC network. Clusters are essential for the implementation of a 5GDHC system in a larger area, as they mitigate investment risks and facilitate a clearer implementation process. The methodology in this study integrates the Single Linkage clustering algorithm and Geometric Graph Theory, which are extended into a model. This model generates clusters based on building locations and energy profiles, and assesses their performance using metrics such as the aggregated hourly lack of supply throughout the year and the total length of the pipe network.
A case study of the inner city of Amsterdam, part of the 'high hanging fruit' project by the AMS Institute, is utilized to test the model. The model requires data on potential waste heat and retrofitted buildings as input. The developed model effectively identifies clusters within a large urban area based on building locations and energy profiles. Trade-offs between pipe network length and energy efficiency must be considered when evaluating the model's results. It is highly recommended to adopt a bottom-up approach and establish 5GDHC clusters incrementally within the city. The hourly disbalances, calculated by the model, can identify potential clusters ready for connection. Moreover, the performance metrics derived from the model can serve as valuable decision-making guides during the design phase of 5GDHC networks. To enhance the decision-making process further, it is crucial to integrate the model's information with urban planning considerations and engage relevant stakeholders. By combining these factors, a comprehensive and well-informed decision-making process can be facilitated, leading to more effective and efficient 5GDHC network designs and implementations.
The full model created within this research can be retrieved from: \url{https://github.com/svanburk/clustering5GDHC.git} ...
To initiate a new heat transition, it is crucial to adopt new sustainable and locally generated heat systems. A potential solution is the implementation of a 5th District Generation Heating and Cooling (5GDHC) network, which utilizes low-temperature heat and cold, potentially sourced from waste heat. However, the design and implementation of a 5GDHC network presents numerous challenges, including the absence of comprehensive guidelines and limited knowledge regarding the deployment of these systems on a larger scale or in an area with an older building stock. This research focuses on developing a tool that can identify potential clusters for a 5GDHC system in densely populated urban areas.
To achieve the research objective, a methodology is developed to identify clusters for a 5GDHC network. Clusters are essential for the implementation of a 5GDHC system in a larger area, as they mitigate investment risks and facilitate a clearer implementation process. The methodology in this study integrates the Single Linkage clustering algorithm and Geometric Graph Theory, which are extended into a model. This model generates clusters based on building locations and energy profiles, and assesses their performance using metrics such as the aggregated hourly lack of supply throughout the year and the total length of the pipe network.
A case study of the inner city of Amsterdam, part of the 'high hanging fruit' project by the AMS Institute, is utilized to test the model. The model requires data on potential waste heat and retrofitted buildings as input. The developed model effectively identifies clusters within a large urban area based on building locations and energy profiles. Trade-offs between pipe network length and energy efficiency must be considered when evaluating the model's results. It is highly recommended to adopt a bottom-up approach and establish 5GDHC clusters incrementally within the city. The hourly disbalances, calculated by the model, can identify potential clusters ready for connection. Moreover, the performance metrics derived from the model can serve as valuable decision-making guides during the design phase of 5GDHC networks. To enhance the decision-making process further, it is crucial to integrate the model's information with urban planning considerations and engage relevant stakeholders. By combining these factors, a comprehensive and well-informed decision-making process can be facilitated, leading to more effective and efficient 5GDHC network designs and implementations.
The full model created within this research can be retrieved from: \url{https://github.com/svanburk/clustering5GDHC.git}
In this research, a model is constructed to determine a cost-efficient realisation of hydrogen pipeline infrastructure in the Netherlands for the years 2030 and 2050. In addition, policy recommendations are made for the Dutch governments on the realisation and regulation of hydrogen pipeline infrastructure. ...
In this research, a model is constructed to determine a cost-efficient realisation of hydrogen pipeline infrastructure in the Netherlands for the years 2030 and 2050. In addition, policy recommendations are made for the Dutch governments on the realisation and regulation of hydrogen pipeline infrastructure.
Traversing obstacles
Designing energy infrastructure networks in a geographical cost-differentiated context
• renewable energy sources, such as offshore wind energy, may threaten the security of our energy system, since they are characterised by a high variability, and limited predictability and controllability;
• the effectiveness with respect to decreasing greenhouse gas emissions is limited, because electrification can be not applied within all sectors, such as heavy industry and heavy duty transport;
• a large increase in offshore wind capacity requires moving further off shore. This results in relatively high costs because of the energy losses within the (longer) electricity cables.
One way of coping with these challenges, is by producing hydrogen offshore, by means of wind energy, and transporting it to shore by for example repurposing the existing offshore natural gas infrastructure. Such an offshore hydrogen system located in the North Sea might sound favorable; however, the feasibility of such a system on this scale is yet to be determined.
In this thesis the possibility is investigated to design a future proof offshore hydrogen system. Such a system would consist of (current as well as new) wind farms, electrolysers to produce hydrogen by using (a part of) the electricity generated by the wind farms, and an infrastructure to bring the hydrogen to shore. Given the EU investment plans in offshore wind energy, a phasing period is used from 2030, 2040, to 2050. This research is done by:
• deriving multiple hydrogen system designs by for example optimising the transmission infrastructure;
• analysing the supply potential of these system designs.
The results show that a cost-competitive hydrogen system in the North Sea can be realised. The proposed system design has a Levelised Cost Of Hydrogen (LCOH) of 2,08 EUR/kg and a positive Net Present Value (NPV) for the most relevant pricing scenarios. This LCOH is relatively low compared to other researches, which are mostly between 2 and 3,5 EUR/kg.
An interesting result concerns including refurbished pipelines of the existing offshore gas infrastructure. When using only new pipelines, the transmission infrastructure costs increase with 36%. Furthermore, the results show that it is more cost-efficient to downscale electrolyser capacities than to use the peak of the available electricity to determine the capacity of the electrolysers. Additionally, the productivity of the wind farms can increase up to even 220% by using the different electricity surplus for hydrogen production.
Based on this research, recommendations can be given:
• National governments should formulate policy on whether or when gas extraction in the North Sea should stop. Thereupon, the (energy) transmission system operators should scope their plans towards transporting offshore hydrogen to onshore, as well as start planning the onshore hydrogen backbone.
• The EU should decide whether to build one interconnected system in the North Sea, or multiple isolated (per country) hydrogen systems. Based on this decision, it is important to start shaping rules and standards for hydrogen trade, as well as determining regulatory regimes to support offshore hydrogen production.
• Further research should be done on the electrolyser costs and efficiencies, as well as the different types of electrolyser locations; on the possibilities of hydrogen storage; and, to include (regional) hydrogen demand values. ...
• renewable energy sources, such as offshore wind energy, may threaten the security of our energy system, since they are characterised by a high variability, and limited predictability and controllability;
• the effectiveness with respect to decreasing greenhouse gas emissions is limited, because electrification can be not applied within all sectors, such as heavy industry and heavy duty transport;
• a large increase in offshore wind capacity requires moving further off shore. This results in relatively high costs because of the energy losses within the (longer) electricity cables.
One way of coping with these challenges, is by producing hydrogen offshore, by means of wind energy, and transporting it to shore by for example repurposing the existing offshore natural gas infrastructure. Such an offshore hydrogen system located in the North Sea might sound favorable; however, the feasibility of such a system on this scale is yet to be determined.
In this thesis the possibility is investigated to design a future proof offshore hydrogen system. Such a system would consist of (current as well as new) wind farms, electrolysers to produce hydrogen by using (a part of) the electricity generated by the wind farms, and an infrastructure to bring the hydrogen to shore. Given the EU investment plans in offshore wind energy, a phasing period is used from 2030, 2040, to 2050. This research is done by:
• deriving multiple hydrogen system designs by for example optimising the transmission infrastructure;
• analysing the supply potential of these system designs.
The results show that a cost-competitive hydrogen system in the North Sea can be realised. The proposed system design has a Levelised Cost Of Hydrogen (LCOH) of 2,08 EUR/kg and a positive Net Present Value (NPV) for the most relevant pricing scenarios. This LCOH is relatively low compared to other researches, which are mostly between 2 and 3,5 EUR/kg.
An interesting result concerns including refurbished pipelines of the existing offshore gas infrastructure. When using only new pipelines, the transmission infrastructure costs increase with 36%. Furthermore, the results show that it is more cost-efficient to downscale electrolyser capacities than to use the peak of the available electricity to determine the capacity of the electrolysers. Additionally, the productivity of the wind farms can increase up to even 220% by using the different electricity surplus for hydrogen production.
Based on this research, recommendations can be given:
• National governments should formulate policy on whether or when gas extraction in the North Sea should stop. Thereupon, the (energy) transmission system operators should scope their plans towards transporting offshore hydrogen to onshore, as well as start planning the onshore hydrogen backbone.
• The EU should decide whether to build one interconnected system in the North Sea, or multiple isolated (per country) hydrogen systems. Based on this decision, it is important to start shaping rules and standards for hydrogen trade, as well as determining regulatory regimes to support offshore hydrogen production.
• Further research should be done on the electrolyser costs and efficiencies, as well as the different types of electrolyser locations; on the possibilities of hydrogen storage; and, to include (regional) hydrogen demand values.
Research was performed by order of Shell. ...
Research was performed by order of Shell.
A method for optimal charging station placement for ships
Combining a flow-refueling location model and an agent-based simulation