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A longitudinal analysis of individual passenger patterns in the Dutch main rail network

Master thesis (2026) - T.M.W. Krijgsman van Spangenberg, N. van Oort, A. Gavriilidou, Freek Verhoof, Panagiotis Spartalis
The rail system plays a critical role in the accessibility of the Netherlands. However, train traffic is sometimes suspended due to required rail maintenance, resulting in a train-free period, referred to as a rail possession. Recently, interest has grown in the potential long-term effects of these possessions on passenger patterns. Train passengers might find a suitable alternative during the maintenance and continue to use it after the possession has ended. This has negative consequences for the environment and the revenue of the railway operator. This thesis investigates whether there is indeed a long-term effect of rail possessions on passenger patterns, and if so, which possession characteristics influence it. This is done by comparing individual passenger patterns before and after a possession, using pseudonymous AFC data. 23 possessions in the main rail network of the Netherlands, where NS operates, are investigated. It is found for long-duration possessions (i.e. at least eight days) that passengers make fewer trips than expected in the six months after the possession. Moreover, it is found that business passengers decrease their travel frequency, but gradually return to their pre-possession travel pattern as time progresses. Besides, no changes in route or station choice are observed, but this can be caused by the local context of the investigated cases. In addition, it is found that low-frequent student and consumer passengers are less severely affected by long-duration possessions than other passenger groups. Other possession characteristics than the duration are not found to influence structural changes in travel patterns. This is, however, likely caused by the absence of permanent effects for most investigated cases, which prevented an adequate analysis of these possession properties. It is recommended for future research to investigate more long-duration possessions; to determine the threshold between short- and long-duration possessions more precisely, and to determine the effect of other possession characteristics. Moreover, splitting long maintenance periods into multiple shorter possessions is expected to reduce the long-term effects. Finally, railway operators should focus more on the benefits of maintenance in the communication to passengers for long maintenance work, to reduce the negative, structural effects. ...

A Revealed-Preference Analysis of the Dutch Network

Master thesis (2026) - H.P. von der Thüsen, N. van Oort, M. Kroesen, M. Movaghar, Menno de Bruyn
Planned highway closures change the relative attractiveness of car and rail travel, yet large-scale revealed-preference evidence of the resulting ridership response is absent from the literature. This paper estimates the causal effect of planned highway closures on intercity rail ridership in the Netherlands. A dataset of 215 full-day closure events spanning 882 closure-days in 2024-2025 is constructed from open source loop-detector traffic intensities and cross-validated against an independent closure archive. Each closure is translated into a continuous treatment intensity per origin--destination pair using a national routing model, and effects are estimated with a fixed-effects panel design on automated fare collection data covering 2070 OD-pairs. Only closures of eight days or longer produce a significant ridership response, with a total effect of 0.375 at a doubling of car travel time, corresponding to a 3.7% ridership increase at the ridership-weighted median detour. The response is concentrated in peak periods and among passengers without an established rail habit as well as incidental passengers, and aggregates to roughly 2.73 million additional passenger-kilometres across seventeen long closures. Applied predictively, the estimates reproduce an out-of-sample 44-day closure within its confidence interval, while a single-bottleneck corridor reveals the forecasts act as lower bounds outside empirical support. ...
Master thesis (2026) - S. Ghavamilahij, N. van Oort, A.M. Salomons, Dirk Versluis
This research developed a set of quality indicators to evaluate and compare public transport timetables from both passenger and operator perspectives. The methodology was applied to the HTM urban public transport network in The Hague using three tram lines with different operating characteristics: Lines 4, 9, and 19. Planned and realised operational data, together with passenger data from Automatic Vehicle Location (AVL) and Automatic Fare Collection (AFC) systems, were used.
Traditional timetable evaluations rely primarily on operator-oriented measures such as punctuality, which do not fully capture passenger experience. From a passenger perspective, service disruptions, irregular headways, and schedule deviations increase waiting and in-vehicle travel times, reducing service attractiveness. At the same time, measures that improve service reliability often increase operational costs through additional vehicle hours or fleet requirements. However, improved operational performance can also reduce financial penalties associated with delays, early departures, and cancellations. This study addresses the limited integration of passenger and operator perspectives in timetable evaluation by translating both into measurable quality indicators.
Passenger performance is represented through reliability and efficiency indicators. Passenger Reliability (PR) measures additional travel time caused by service variability, while Passenger Efficiency (PE) reflects the relationship between travelled distance and scheduled travel time, accounting for both in-vehicle and waiting time. The operator perspective is represented through Operator Robustness (OR), based on performance-related penalties, and Operator Expenses (OE), based on operational costs associated with vehicle hours and fleet size.
The indicators were applied to a series of alternative timetables created by modifying layover time, trip time, and service frequency. OE and PE were calculated directly from timetable characteristics, whereas PR and OR required simulation of realised operations. The simulation model was based on empirical distributions derived from realised data, including initial delays, driving times, and cancellation probabilities.
Increasing trip times and layovers generally improved passenger reliability and operator robustness, while increasing service frequency produced the greatest improvements in passenger efficiency by reducing waiting times. These improvements, however, were typically accompanied by higher operational costs. Although similar trends were observed across all lines, the effectiveness of timetable modifications depended on line characteristics. For example, increasing layover time produced the largest reliability improvements on Line 4, whereas increasing trip times was generally more effective on Lines 9 and 19. Even small increases in trip time proved beneficial on Line 9 without substantially increasing costs, while larger increases improved reliability further but also increased early departures more noticeably.
The timetable alternatives were compared using a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). The preferred timetable depended strongly on the selected weighting scheme. Based on literature, Passenger Reliability was recommended to receive three times the weight of Passenger Efficiency, whereas no general recommendation was made for the relative weighting of passenger and operator objectives because this depends on policy priorities. For HTM, which operates under the Metropoolregio Rotterdam Den Haag (MRDH), greater emphasis on passenger objectives was considered appropriate.
The study is limited by the range of timetable modifications considered and several modelling assumptions, including the exclusion of passenger behavioural responses and transfers. Future research could incorporate these aspects together with more detailed holding strategies. Overall, the proposed framework provides a transparent approach for evaluating public transport timetables by explicitly balancing passenger impacts and operational constraints. ...

A Stated Preference Study on Safety, Comfort and Intended Use

Master thesis (2026) - A. Kalapouti, N. van Oort, M. Kroesen
As car dependency generates increasing environmental, spatial and public health externalities, low-car urban development has emerged as a sustainable alternative, with neighbourhood mobility hubs serving as its central instrument. Their effectiveness, however, depends not only on the transport modes they offer but on whether users choose to engage with them, with safety and comfort acting as decisive conditions that shape perceived user experience and thereby influence intended hub use. To address this gap, a Systematic Literature Review and a Discrete Choice Experiment were conducted, analysed using a dummy-coded Multinomial Logit Model and a Latent Class Choice Model. All five evaluated attributes positively and significantly influenced intended hub use, with real-time information emerging as the most influential attribute and surveillance consistently the weakest, contextually explained by the low-car neighbourhood framing and sample composition. Preference heterogeneity was identified across five covariates, with female respondents and households with children showing stronger safety orientations and hub-familiar respondents prioritising information provision. Three latent preference classes were identified, only partially explained by observed characteristics. Findings align with the node-place-experience framework, indicating that successful hubs should prioritise real-time information and comfort amenities, complemented by learning-by-doing initiatives to support long-term adoption. ...

Development and evaluation of different design variants

Master thesis (2026) - J.M. Bordewijk, N. van Oort, H. Farah, A.A. Mekonnen, Vincent Wever
In this project, a design was developed for a high level of service bus lane in the city of Amersfoort. The proposed bus lane is located in an area undergoing major urban redevelopment, with approximately 5,000 new houses planned. It forms part of a broader Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) corridor that connects the main train station with the northern neighbourhoods of the city. To determine the most suitable design, a literature study was conducted using both academic publications and design guidelines. The academic literature provided insight into different design options for dedicated bus lanes, highlighting their respective advantages and drawbacks, while design guidelines offered practical baseline solutions. In general, median bus lanes were identified as the most effective option for public transport performance. As no dedicated BRT road design guideline was available, general bus and tram design standards were used as a foundation for further development.

A system analysis identified the municipality as the primary stakeholder, alongside the province, the bus operator, passengers, and bus drivers. The main objectives of the design were to create fast, efficient, and comfortable bus lanes, as well as high-quality bus stops. These objectives were translated into specific requirements outlined in the basis of design. While some requirements varied across sections, the overall design needed to include dedicated bus lanes, general traffic lanes, bicycle paths, and sidewalks. Additionally, certain constraints—such as an underpass and a bridge—could not be modified due to cost limitations. A GIS analysis determined that three bus stops would be required within the design area.

Based on these requirements, multiple design alternatives were developed for five different sections of the area, considering median, curb-side, and side-separated bus lanes. In consultation with the municipality, the most promising concepts were selected and further refined into detailed variants. Due to interdependencies between sections, the design process was streamlined to focus on two main sections. These variants were elaborated using AutoCAD, with special attention given to spatial limitations. In one section, hybrid solutions were introduced, combining dedicated bus lanes with shared traffic where necessary. The designs were evaluated using criteria grouped into three categories: traffic performance, passenger accessibility, and urban integration and liveability. Traffic performance was assessed through microsimulation modelling, while accessibility and urban integration were evaluated using a mix of quantitative indicators and expert judgement.

The evaluation showed that designs with median bus lanes consistently performed best across most criteria. They resulted in shorter bus travel times, higher service reliability, improved accessibility, and better integration into the urban environment. However, curb-side bus lanes performed better in terms of general traffic flow and, in some cases, road safety. Ultimately, the median-based designs were selected and integrated into a final design for the entire area. Due to spatial constraints, some sections still required shared traffic, meaning the original goal of fully dedicated bus lanes was not completely achieved. It is therefore recommended that the municipality further refine the design, potentially by reducing general traffic capacity or reallocating space within the redevelopment area. The key takeaway from this project is that median bus lanes offer the best performance for high-quality public transport, but strict design requirements can significantly influence—and sometimes limit—the final outcome. ...

A case study on rural public mobility in South-Holland

Master thesis (2026) - Y.T. de Waaij, N. van Oort, A. Gavriilidou, R.A. Haverman, M. Timmers
In rural regions public transportation is difficult to facilitate, low densities make it difficult to justify a dense bus network. Simultaneously also in rural regions people that are dependent on public transportation exist. These people should be served by the public transportation. To be able to compete with car users and gain more travellers local bus lines are frequently stretched to improve commercial speed. This enlarges the access and egress distances which may be (too) difficult to overcome. This thesis wants to investigate the potential of integrating public mobility into the public transportation system within rural regions for short local trips and access and egress to stretched bus lines (interlocal bus services).

To assess the potential role of public mobility, a literature study is first conducted to identify the benefits, functioning, and malfunctioning of different aspects of the public mobility spectrum. Both the node configurations through which public mobility is provided and the systems themselves are examined. Based on this literature study operational constraints are formulated and a selection of modes is made for use in the subsequent modelling phase. The selected public mobility types are demand responsive transportation (DRT), shared mobility, and ride-sharing, in combination with the existing interlocal bus service. Under the defined operational constraints, DRT may only serve trips between nodes and the nearest interlocal bus station, and vice versa. Battery-powered vehicles may only operate between any node and any interlocal bus station, conventional bicycles may be used for any trip, and ride-sharing is only encouraged from specific locations focused on the creation of corridors between villages and the interlocal bus service. Given these constraints a discrete-event, agent-based simulation with stochastic demand and mode choice is developed for the case area of the Krimpenerwaard.

The results of the model indicate that conventional bicycles, in combination with the interlocal bus service, form the backbone of the system. For longer access and egress trips to interlocal bus stations, electric bicycles offer clear benefits and are the primary mode. Ride-sharing is a dominant mode on few OD-pairs of the selected corridors. however, the overall share of trips made using ride-sharing remains marginal. The cabin scooter emerges as an important mode for people with limited mobility and providing shelter during rainy conditions. Due to its lower speed, trip distances are generally short, resulting primarily in trips to and from the nearest interlocal bus station. While it is not the preferred option for most travellers, it plays a crucial role in ensuring system accessibility for all users. DRT is the least-used mode, due to its operational constraints, it does not offer a fast alternative, and most DRT users lack viable substitutes. Therefore, it is essential that a DRT service is available to provide these users with a viable travel solution. Simultaneously due to the enormous costs for a DRT it is preferred to minimise the trips as much as possible, therefore it is not advised to improve the operational constraints to gain a higher usage. Although a 45 km/h scooter is included in the model, the most promising fleet compositions exclude scooters. This is the result of a competition between scooters and the interlocal bus due to both having a the higher velocity while the bus also has a high capacity the scooter is unable to deliver enough trips given the cost constraints. This results in an unstable system configuration, which should therefore be avoided.

The results further show that the lower the settlement density, the greater the potential improvements offered by public mobility relative to the existing system. In suburban areas, public mobility is unable to compete with local bus services. Under the model assumptions, and with a confidence level of 99%, the integration of public mobility increases ridership by at least 5.8%, while cancelled trips increase by no more than 17.6% across all more rural settlement typologies. In villages, the overall benefits are limited for most trips; however, the slowest 1% of trips experience a commercial speed improvement of at least 64.7%, contributing to a more equitable mobility system. During peak hours, villages generate trip volumes that public mobility services are unable to accommodate effectively, making bus services the preferable option. Outside peak hours, when demand decreases, public mobility becomes more advantageous than local bus services. In ribbon developments, average travellers experience a commercial speed increase of 55.5%, while dispersed settlements show an even larger improvement of 319.1% in average commercial speed. Based on these findings, it is recommended to implement public mobility in rural regions with a focus on dispersed settlements, ribbon developments, and villages, while ensuring the presence of a fast and frequent interlocal bus service and dedicated rush-hour bus services for villages. ...
Master thesis (2025) - K. van Maanen, E. Quaglietta, J.A. Annema, N. van Oort, Nigel Birch
This study presents a comparative analysis of the three train-bus timetable synchronisation approaches in order to improve the performance and attractiveness of integrated public transport networks in rural areas. While the existing literature mainly focuses on synchronisation approaches separately, limited attention has been given to comparing the different synchronisation approaches, with the incorporation of passenger demand. To address this gap, this research develops a Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) model to compare the three synchronisation approaches: train-first, bus-first, and simultaneous synchronisation. Applied to a rural public transport network in Friesland, the model minimises total passenger travel time weighted by passenger demand. The case study, consisting of one train line and thirteen connecting bus services, provides a manageable evaluation of the model. The results show that simultaneous synchronisation consistently outperforms the sequential approaches, achieving the lowest total passenger waiting time for most operating hours and service lines. Comparing the simultaneous synchronisation approach to the current timetable shows significant improvements in total passenger waiting time across all operating hours and for most of the lines. A mode choice analysis using a Multinomial Logit (MNL) model shows an increase in ridership based on the improved timetable, which facilitates a modal shift from private car to public transport. These findings show that timetable synchronisation alone, without improving infrastructure or the addition of more services, can increase the attractiveness of the public transport network. These findings are especially important in rural areas where car dependency is typically higher. The results suggest that transport authorities should reconsider the current sequential timetable synchronisation practices. Optimisation of multimodal networks simultaneously can improve the performance and attractiveness of integrated public transport networks in rural areas. ...

A Participatory Value Evaluation approach to integrate Inclusive, Multimodal Mobility Hubs into Dutch cites

Master thesis (2025) - D. Reuvekamp, N. Mouter, N. van Oort, Bernice den Haan, Bas Scholten
Multimodal mobility hubs are increasingly promoted as sustainable solutions to reduce car dependency, yet many do not align with user needs due to limited public involvement in the design process. To see if the planning of hubs can align with community preferences, this study performs a Participatory Value Evaluation (PVE) focused on the Dutch city of Zwolle. PVE makes it accessible for a large and diverse group of citizens to be involved in policy issues and decision making. Through two choice tasks, participants allocated limited resources among various hub design options, reflecting real constraints and trade-offs faced by decision-makers. The PVE set-up is grounded in structural and functional components of four European mobility hubs, innovatively using the Technological Innovation System (TIS) framework as a learning tool. Latent Class Cluster Analysis (LCCA) revealed preference-based user segments, ranging from bike- and public transport enthusiast to mainly car-oriented users. Despite varied priorities, all clusters emphasized the importance of physical and social safety, and core amenities like public toilets, parking and public transport integration. Qualitative analysis showed respondents reasoning behind numerical choices, highlighting once more, concerns about safety. Expert interviews confirmed PVE's relevance as a practical planning tool, especially when implemented in the right phase of hub design. While sample representativeness and expert diversity were limited, the findings suggest that integrating PVE into recurring planning cycles can improve the social legitimacy and effectiveness of mobility hubs. This research offers a replicable framework for embedding community values in urban transport planning, with implications extending to other Dutch and European contexts. ...

A research on what affects hospital employees' willingness to cycle for commuting

Master thesis (2025) - S.A.M. Jacobs, N. van Oort, E.J.E. Molin
Urban congestion and sustainability goals have prompted hospitals to explore strategies for reducing car dependency among employees. This study investigates which factors influence the likelihood of a modal shift toward cycling alternatives, in the context of a hospital facing significant traffic issues. To explore employee preferences, a Discrete Choice Experiment was conducted among hospital staff. The results reveal substantial heterogeneity in preferences, with delay emerging as a particularly influential factor in mode choice. Aside from delay, weather also showed a significant impact, with good weather increasing the likelihood of choosing a bicycle, and bad weather increasing the likelihood of choosing car or public transport. While current commuting patterns are relatively fixed for some, many respondents showed openness to switching to cycling, especially when practical barriers are addressed. Open-ended responses further showed that employees proposed concrete interventions, such as shared e-bikes and a different travel allowance stricture. These findings offer valuable input for developing targeted mobility policies aligned with both institutional sustainability objectives and employee needs. ...

Strategies to Improve Stakeholder Collaboration in the Development and Implementation Phases of Regional Mobility hubs

Master thesis (2025) - L.D. van Dijk, J.A. Annema, N. van Oort, N. Mouter, H.H. Arends, Kees van Son
Regional mobility hubs offer a promising solution to address growing mobility demands and sustainability challenges across urban and rural areas. While their potential is widely recognized, regional hubs often face the challenge of solving urban problems, such as congestion, through interventions located outside the city, leading to a mismatch between problem and solution space. This misalignment complicates local buy-in and contributes
to fragmented stakeholder collaboration across multiple governance levels. This research investigates how collaboration can be improved during the development and implementation
phases of regional mobility hubs. A conceptual collaboration framework was developed from literature and applied to a case study of the Brainporthubs in the Eindhoven region. The
findings reveal that relationship quality is a critical prerequisite for effective engagement, eventually leading to successful collaboration. Additionally, shared value creation, especially through integrated policy agendas, emerges as a key driver for stakeholder commitment. Based on these insights, the original framework was refined and translated into actionable strategies for both existing and future hub projects. This study contributes an evidencebased model and concrete strategies to enhance collaborative governance in complex transport initiatives. ...
Master thesis (2025) - J. Nederhof, Rosa Vroom, N. Mouter, N. van Oort, A. Gavriilidou
People with a Disability (PwD) often rely on public transport, towards their need for accessibility. Knowledge about the user's perspective on accessibility policies is crucial to decide what is most urgent, yet remains limited. Hence, this study researches what accessibility policies people with a disability and citizens in general prefer. The preferences of citizens are relevant, for they illustrate public support for different accessibility measures.
To fill this knowledge gap, Participatory Value Evaluation (PVE) is performed in the Netherlands. 1254 respondents, of whom 328 had a disability, advised policymakers on which accessibility policies are most urgent. In the PVE, participants could indicate for nine policy measures whether they should get more priority, subject to an effort constraint.
The results show that both PwD and citizens prioritised the repair of broken elevators most, followed by wheelchair accessible vehicles. These policies were prioritised despite the high effort required. The results show great homogeneity of results amongst different disabilities. Participants prioritised policies because of their perceived necessity and effectiveness in helping people with a disability use public transport. The research suggests that people prioritise more expensive, long-term policies that facilitate independent travel for most PwD, over less expensive measures that do not improve independence in the long term.
Policymakers and scholars are recommended to focus on the necessity and effectiveness of accessibility policies, prioritising long-term improvements. ...

Understanding Operational Efficiency of Bicycle Parking Facilities at Railway Stations in the Netherlands

Master thesis (2025) - I.A. Bosman, N. van Oort, N. Geržinič, J.A. Annema
In the Netherlands, the integration of cycling with train travel plays a crucial role in enhancing urban mobility by promoting accessibility, reducing congestion and lowering emissions. This paper investigates the operational efficiency of bicycle parking facilities at railway stations, with the aim of bridging the gap between infrastructure design and the evolving demands of users, such as the need to accommodate a variety of bicycle types and fluctuating commuting patterns. There is still limited insight into the operational dynamics that affect efficiency. This study operationalises usage efficiency by analysing occupancy, turnover and parking pressure, using data from Dutch railway stations from 2023 to 2024. Through a mixed-methods approach combining qualitative interviews and quantitative time-series analysis, the paper identifies key strategies for optimising these facilities. The findings reveal variability in efficiency across different contexts, showing that a high turnover relative to parking pressure rate indicates greater operational efficiency. Cluster analysis utilising temporal clustering techniques differentiates facilities by efficiency patterns and identifies distinct challenges and opportunities for targeted interventions. The paper advocates enhanced monitoring, targeted enforcement, context-specific design adjustments and the accommodation of diverse bicycle types to improve efficiency. These insights aim to guide planners and operators in optimising bicycle parking facilities to support sustainable, multimodal mobility in urban environments.
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Transit quality of multimodal public transport systems in cities worldwide

This report presents the development and application of a standardized methodology for assessing the accessibility of multimodal public transport systems. As cities around the world face growing pressure to deliver efficient, inclusive, and sustainable mobility, there is a clear need for analytical tools that can evaluate how well transit networks serve diverse populations across both space and time. This is particularly important in multimodal systems, where the overall user experience depends not only on the performance of individual modes, but also on how well these modes are integrated in terms of spatial layout, service availability, and schedule coordination. Although many existing studies have evaluated public transport accessibility, most of these focus on single modes or static indicators such as travel time and coverage. They often neglect the dynamic, interconnected nature of real-world transit systems, and provide limited insight into how multimodal integration affects system performance. To address these gaps, this research introduces a comparative framework that combines spatial and temporal accessibility metrics using publicly available GTFS data and graph-based network representations. The primary objective of this research is to design a methodology that enables structured, comparative analysis of multimodal public transport networks. The study applies this methodology to a diverse set of twelve cities and investigates whether the resulting metrics reveal meaningful insights into the spatial and temporal structure, coordination, and operational strategies of their networks. These insights then serve as the foundation for identifying system strengths and weaknesses and developing targeted policy recommendations. ...

Conceptual research on the inclusion of transport equity in the decision-making process of transport projects in sparsely populated areas in the Netherlands

Master thesis (2025) - J.M. Scholte, J.A. Annema, N. van Oort, L.J. Volberda
As the demand for a more inclusive society increases, fair access to transport has become a pressing issue, especially in rural areas where mobility is under increasing pressure. This thesis investigates how equity in transport can be meaningfully included in the decision-making processes of transport projects in sparsely populated regions of the Netherlands. Focusing on the MIRT (Multi-Year Programme for Infrastructure, Spatial Planning and Transport), the study applies the concept of broad welfare, which includes not only economic outcomes but also social, environmental and health dimensions. Rural regions continue to face limited transport options, increasing the risk of social exclusion, transport poverty and regional decline. Through a qualitative, multi-method approach combining literature and policy analysis, stakeholder mapping and interviews with twelve Dutch transport planning experts, this research identifies key barriers to embedding equity: conceptual vagueness, limited political prioritisation, fragmented governance and a lack of practical tools. The findings underline the importance of including equity from the earliest planning stages and highlight the role of political support and institutional clarity. Financial barriers, particularly for smaller municipalities, worsen regional inequalities. In response, the thesis proposes a long-term strategy towards a national framework for transport equity. This includes a standard definition of transport equity, better coordination between different levels of government, refined evaluation methods such as cost-benefit analysis, multi-criteria analysis and participatory value evaluation, and improved funding mechanisms. By adapting the MIRT process to embed equity, the Netherlands can move from fragmented recognition to concrete, equitable transport networks. ...
This research investigated how parametric modelling can support early-stage airport landside planning by enabling the systematic generation and evaluation of adaptable terminal configurations. Traditional landside design relies on static forecasts and rules of thumb, which provide baseline estimates but limit exploration of alternative layouts and integration of public transport. To address these limitations, a parametric model framework was developed, translating demand, spatial, and performance parameters into a structured, data-driven approach. The model uses Excel inputs for passenger demand, modal splits, and basic geometry, generating landside layouts in Grasshopper through optimisation and scenario evaluation. Passenger experience is represented by walking distance, providing a quantifiable performance metric, while multiple scenarios illustrate how layouts respond to changes in demand and design constraints. Results demonstrate that the parametric model enables rapid iteration, visualisation, and comparison of alternative designs, improving decision-making transparency and adaptability. While simplifications such as 2D representation, partial passenger experience metrics, and solver stochasticity limit full applicability, the framework provides a foundation for more data-driven, flexible, and collaborative landside planning. Recommendations for future research include 3D modelling, enhanced passenger experience metrics, and alternative optimisation methods. ...
Master thesis (2025) - N. Tsironis, J.A. Annema, N. van Oort
The urban mobility landscape, driven by micromobility and Mobility as a Service (MaaS), offers solutions for the last mile challenge but is hindered by data fragmentation and misaligned stakeholder objectives. These issues lead to inefficiencies and slow progress toward sustainable urban transport. This thesis develops a practical collaborative framework to promote data sharing and align interests among municipal governments, transit agencies, and private operators. Using a qualitative case study in Zeeland, Netherlands, with interviews of nine mobility stakeholders, the study finds that competition and data privacy concerns are major barriers to collaboration. The result is a structured five step framework guiding stakeholders through: 1) Objective Alignment, 2) Boundary Setting and Data Evaluation, 3) Current State Assessment, 4) Solution Design and Governance, and 5) Continuous Feedback. This roadmap helps overcome silos, enhance data driven decision making, and deliver more integrated, sustainable, and user focused last mile mobility solutions. ...

Exploring Capabilities and Challenges of Accessibility for urban Elderly through Microstories

Master thesis (2024) - L. Drechsel, J.A. Annema, N. van Oort, G.P. van Wee, S. Puylaert
When considering elderly individuals in the context of transportation, qualitative research seems to focus rather on mobility and the problems related than on the actual achievement of access. Additionally, certain bias and misconceptions about this diverse group still influences accessibility studies for elderly. This paper therefore explores the accessibility challenges faced by elderly individuals, particularly focusing on urban environments like Rotterdam. Interviews in a semi-structured format using the approach of microstories were conducted in May 2024 among elderly residents of Rotterdam, aged 67 and above. The Capability Approach was used as a framework to categorise the findings of these in-depth interviews. This study with its findings underlines the inherently heterogeneity of this group. Further it presents barriers as well as enablers of accessibility for this group and how this influences the way participants move and access activities within their city. These findings show how important it is to develop specific policies not just for ‘the elderly’ but for various sub-groups of them, as they show very different characteristics and abilities. Furthermore it challenges the typical view at accessibility, usually simplified by the land use and transportation system and time or distance-based thresholds, and whether these are really usable for this group. ...

Modelling night train demand potential for maximum air-rail substitution

This thesis addresses a hypothetical scenario in which all flights within most of Europe are substituted by rail and estimates the resulting additional rail demand, with a focus on night train demand. Routes, cities and countries with high potential for (night) trains under maximum air-rail substitution are highlighted, and rolling stock requirements are estimated. Several research gaps regarding long-distance travel behaviour and mode choice are shown to require assumptions in the modelling approach; the results are indicative of areas with higher demand potential for night trains than others. ...
Master thesis (2024) - L.W. Mbugua, D.C. Duives, J.A. Annema, N. van Oort
Integrating bike-sharing programs with public transport enhances car-independent mobility, yet a comprehensive societal cost-benefit analysis of this integration remains scarce. This study addresses this gap by conducting an ex-post analysis of the OV-fiets program in the Netherlands, a station-based round-trip bike-sharing system designed to improve last-mile connectivity for train commuters. Spanning from 2004 to 2023, the analysis identifies 19 critical factors through an exhaustive literature review and expert consultations, with 14 factors subsequently quantified and monetized. The findings reveal a positive net present value (NPV) for the OV-fiets scheme, with benefit-cost ratios (BCRs) ranging from 1.1:1 to 2.4:1 and a median ratio of 1.5:1. Primary benefits include enhanced accessibility, reduced road congestion, and improved health outcomes, while significant costs are associated with initial investments and road safety impacts. This research underscores the considerable societal value of the OV-fiets program, warranting continued investment in the program and emphasizing the need for ongoing safety measures and infrastructure improvements. Additionally, it provides a robust framework for future assessments and improvements in similar urban contexts. ...
Master thesis (2024) - T.J. Bon, N. van Oort, M. Bruno, M. Kroesen, Jeroen Bastiaanssen
This thesis explores the impact of transport disadvantage on the unemployed's participation in out-of-home activities beyond the labor market. It delineates eight distinct groups primarily based on transport accessibility and car availability among the unemployed, assessing how these factors are shaped by socio-demographic characteristics and influence engagement in various activities, such as shopping, social visits, and recreational activities.

Latent class cluster analysis is employed to identify distinct patterns of transport accessibility and car availability among the unemployed, avoiding arbitrary definitions and incorporating socio-demographic determinants. This approach reveals a broad spectrum of transport accessibility and car availability patterns, ranging from low to medium to high, organized into groups or clusters.

The research contrasts out-of-home activity participation between unemployed and employed individuals with similar socio-demographic profiles to identify relative deficits, using propensity score matching. This method isolates the combined effect of employment status and non-socio-demographically determined transport disadvantage on activity participation and travel behavior. The study then conducts a comparative analysis of deficits in activity engagement across the eight groups, allowing for the separation of the direct impact of transport disadvantage from direct effects related to employment status.

A key discovery of this thesis is a compensatory mechanism among unemployed individuals who tend to increase their participation in non-work-related activities. However, this compensatory behavior is not uniformly realized across all groups, particularly not among those with low car availability, who exhibit significant deficits in out-of-home activity participation. Surprisingly, accessibility does not seem to influence the differential in activity participation between the unemployed and their employed counterparts, suggesting that car availability is the primary dimension through which compensatory behavior is enabled.

This finding challenges the hypothesized compensatory relationship between transport accessibility and car availability and suggests that individuals with higher car availability, regardless of their level of accessibility, are at a lower risk of transport-related social exclusion, whereas those with low car availability exhibit a higher risk, irrespective of their accessibility levels.

Furthermore, the results suggest that socio-demographic factors compound with employment status and transport disadvantage to inhibit the full expression of this compensatory mechanism among low car availability groups. These groups, representing 61% of the unemployed sample, typically have higher accessibility and comprise younger people, individuals living in single-person households, those with lower household incomes, and individuals with a non-native (parental) birthplace, predominantly residing in highly urbanized areas.

This study, informed by existing literature on affordability limitations, recommends enhancing affordable transport accessibility for unemployed individuals with low car availability, advocating for subsidized public transport fares and travel allowances for low-household-income groups. It supports promoting mixed-use developments and enhancing infrastructure for active transportation modes to increase activity options within reachable distances for those with limited car availability. Future research should explore physical and digital in-home activities, subjective experiences of social inclusion, and the role of transport and housing expenses in shaping transport affordability. ...