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S.P. Hoogendoorn

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Lighting is an integral element of every pedestrian environment, making it a promising tool for crowd management. However, limited knowledge exists on how different lighting conditions shape pedestrian choice behavior. This study systematically examines how both light intensity and light color influence pedestrian exit choice using data from a large field experiment in which varying light settings were applied to two building exits. Two multinomial logit (MNL) models, a light-intensity model and a light-color model, were estimated to quantify these effects. Findings indicate that only a limited subset of light-intensity and light-color conditions meaningfully influence pedestrian exit choice, with Off-Neutral, Bright-Neutral, White-Green, and Red-Green showing moderate, time-dependent effects. At the same time, contextual factors such as origin, local density, and time of day remain far stronger predictors of behavior. Moreover, learning effects emerge selectively and often counterintuitively, with pedestrians increasingly favoring the darker or red-lit exits in conditions where opposite directional responses are expected. The MNL models suggest that lighting can modestly influence pedestrian routing, provided it is applied with careful attention to contextual conditions and time of day. ...
The deployment of automated vehicles (AVs) on public roads remains limited due to concerns about their interaction with human-driven vehicles (HDVs) in mixed traffic. While previous studies suggest that AVs influence HDV behaviour, the nature of this influence is still not well understood. This study examines how AVs affect HDV car-following behaviour in mixed traffic conditions. Empirical data were collected through a driving simulator experiment in which participants followed a lead vehicle in four scenarios varying in vehicle appearance (AV or HDV) and driving style (AV-like or HDV-like). Car-following behaviour was analysed using the Intelligent Driver Model (IDM) and an extended version (IDM+). The results show that HDVs adapt their behaviour when following AVs, exhibiting smaller jam spacing distances and shorter safe time headways compared to following HDVs. These findings support more accurate assessments of traffic safety and efficiency and contribute to the safe integration of AVs into mixed traffic. ...
Growing car dependence intensifies congestion and reduces urban liveability. In response, many cities are introducing car-free zones supported by shared mobility to promote sustainable and accessible transport. However, residents’ preferences for shared modes in actively transitioning car-free contexts remain underexplored. This study examines these preferences in the inner city of Delft, a medium-sized Dutch city transforming toward a car-free area under the “Mobility Plan 2040.” A stated choice experiment examines how travel cost, walking time, socio-demographic characteristics, and trip purposes influence the adoption of four shared electric modes, (e-) bikes, scooters, cargo bikes, and cars, while an “opt-out” option captured avoidance behaviour. A Mixed Logit model estimated the Value of Time and quantified preference heterogeneity. Travel cost and walking time are the most significant determinants. The estimated VoT (€0.20 per minute) highlights the importance of reducing access distances. Socio-demographic variation was significant: younger, digitally literate residents prefer micromobility, while those aged 50 + are more likely to opt out. Gender, income, education, and trip purpose further shape preferences, with commuting trips showing lower adoption due to time and reliability constraints. Rather than forecasting demand, we use the experiment as a behavioural diagnostic of an urban transition in progress: the 64% of choices selecting the opt-out indicate that the offered shared modes were frequently not acceptable substitutes for the recalled trip—most strongly when that trip was car-based—highlighting that car-free strategies must combine service design (pricing, fleet proximity) with car-ownership targeted measures for the groups least ready to substitute. ...
Journal article (2026) - Yufei Yuan, Kaiyi Wang, Dorine Duives, Winnie Daamen, Serge P. Hoogendoorn
Bicycle delay is an important variable to assess the performance of the cycling transportation system, especially as an indicator of intersection efficiency. This article estimates a machine learning (ML)-based model for estimating average bicycle delays at signalized intersections. This study evaluates various ML models with regressor features, including random forest, k-nearest neighbor, support vector regression, extreme gradient boosting, and neural networks. Sparse GPS cycling data (as reference data) from the Talking Bikes program in the Netherlands and the local control signal and flow detection information from the VLOG data provided by a Dutch city are adopted to train the ML models. The findings illustrate the viability of estimating bicycle delays by considering the interplay among weather conditions, temporal factors, junction topology, and local traffic conditions. The estimation model fit using the best-performing model - random forest - has doubled compared to the case without such additional traffic information, indicating its improved performance. Insights gained from the estimation model emphasize the potential of data-driven approaches to inform traffic management, bicycle policy, and infrastructure development. ...
Journal article (2026) - Yanyan Xu, Panchamy Krishnakumari, Neil Yorke-Smith, Serge Hoogendoorn
This article proposes an evidence-based policy recommendation framework integrating social media data and natural language processing methods, to support inclusive and efficient transport policy-making. Given that current research underscores the crucial role of both external and psychological variables in individual travel decisions, psychological features – such as beliefs, attitudes or values – are frequently used as latent variables for travel behaviour interpretation and travel choice modelling. However, user-centric policy recommendations based on dynamic psychological variables are still limited. Most studies rely on survey data, which neglects the urgent dynamic trend of user perception change and its underlying relationship with travel behaviour. Hence there is a lack of illustration on how these psychological variables can be further used at specific temporal and spatial levels for travel behaviour interpretation. This would be valuable to identify priorities for more targeted (sustainability and other) policies and interventions. In this article, we utilize sentiment analysis and dynamic topic modelling to represent the spatial–temporal variance of psychological features. Integrating with corresponding travel behaviour, we illustrate how these dynamic psychological features can distinguish travel dissonance, identify key motivations, and reflect urgent social demands at precise spatial–temporal levels. We demonstrate these advances in a case study in New York City from 2019 to 2022 using Twitter (X) data. A comparison with existing travel-related policies in the case study validates the feasibility of our framework to support evidence-based policy recommendations. We conclude by discussing the potential of this framework to support sustainable transport promotion. ...
Journal article (2026) - Xiamei Wen, Dorine Duives, Serge Hoogendoorn
Bicycle traffic, as a sustainable mode of transport, helps reduce urban emissions and promote livable cities. Accurate short-term prediction of bicycle traffic flow can support real-time and near-real-time traffic management decisions in urban cycling systems. However, this task is challenging due to limited high-quality bicycle data, sparse sensor coverage, and high sensitivity to external factors. In this work, we propose a Bicycle Spatial-Temporal Large Language Model (BiSTLLM) for bicycle traffic prediction, inspired by the strong time series modeling capabilities of large language models (LLMs). In BiSTLLM, we define the historical traffic sequence at each location as tokens, allowing the model to learn complex spatial-temporal patterns. Specifically, we first introduce a weather lagging processor using causal temporal convolution to capture the delayed effects of weather on bicycle traffic. We also incorporate semantic embeddings of Point-of-Interest (POIs) and bicycle lane accessibility to represent land use and infrastructure, enhancing the model’s ability to learn both localized activity patterns and broader spatial-temporal dynamics. We then further introduce a fine-tuning strategy to better tailor the general knowledge of a pre-trained LLM to the specific characteristics of bicycle traffic. Experiments on real-world bicycle traffic flow datasets demonstrate that BiSTLLM outperforms existing state-of-the-art models. Notably, BiSTLLM exhibits strong performance even in few-shot settings, highlighting its potential for accurate bicycle traffic prediction in data-sparse environments. ...
Efficient crowd management is crucial for municipalities to ensure public safety and enhance visitor experience, particularly in tourist-centric areas, such as Scheveningen Beach. Scheveningen Beach faces challenges because of the limited precision of visitor count data and the lack of accurate forecasts. Currently, crowd safety managers use their professional experience to forecast based on factors such as weather, events, and holidays, leading to inaccuracies, highlighting the need for accessible data and advanced analytics to enhance crowd management strategies. This study evaluates machine learning and deep learning models for multi-horizon hourly pedestrian crowd count forecasting, addressing the limitations of current manual prediction methods. Historical crowd data, weather, and holidays were integrated to train eXtreme gradient boosting, categorical boosting (CatBoost), light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM), long short-term memory (LSTM), and Temporal Fusion Transformer models for short-term (1-day), mid-term (7-day), and long-term (30-day) horizons. Models were developed for individual locations and as a unified multilocation approach. Performance was assessed using the coefficient of determination, root mean square error, normalized root mean square error, symmetric mean absolute percentage error, mean absolute error, and normalized mean absolute error metrics. The results showed that CatBoost was best for short-term forecasts, CatBoost and LightGBM for mid-term forecasts, and LSTM and LightGBM for long-term forecasts. Forecast performance decreases over longer time horizons in many locations, suggesting different applications: short-term forecasts for immediate operational decisions and long-term predictions for general trend analysis and strategic planning. Individual location models generally outperformed the unified approach, but at a higher computational cost. This study reveals significant spatial and temporal variability in crowd dynamics, which is crucial for optimizing resource allocation and enhancing preparedness in crowd management at Scheveningen Beach and similar tourist destinations. ...

A research-oriented SUMO wrapper for traffic simulation in python

Journal article (2026) - C. Evans, M. Rinaldi, H. Taale, S. P. Hoogendoorn
TUD-SUMO is a Python wrapper for SUMO, a traffic simulation software, designed to support the development of traffic control systems, particularly adaptive systems where data is frequently transferred between a controller and the traffic environment. It provides automated data collection and a set of modular, extensible tools allowing for a wide range of scenarios and control strategies to be simulated and compared. These capabilities are accessed through a simplified interface that enables rapid prototyping of control strategies with complex interactions using minimal code, promoting ease of use and portability. TUD-SUMO has already been employed in multiple projects at Delft University of Technology, including two Horizon Europe projects and 2 transportation engineering courses. ...
Monitoring air quality is essential for a healthy living environment and can be achieved through various sensor types. While high-cost stationary reference sensors provide precise data, their limited deployment reduces overall coverage. Low-cost mobile sensors (LCSs) can complement stationary sensors, improving both spatial and temporal coverage. However, LCSs suffer from poor accuracy and require frequent calibration. This study presents mathematical optimization models to identify the optimal subset of buses to equip with LCSs and the optimal location of reference sensor stations. The objective is to maximize sensor network coverage while considering budget limitations and ensuring that all mobile sensors are calibrated frequently. The Rotterdam case study demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed approach in achieving extensive spatiotemporal coverage of residential and industrial areas. The results demonstrate that the joint optimization of mobile and reference sensors enhances both calibration and coverage efficiency. ...
Journal article (2026) - Serge P. Hoogendoorn, Victor L. Knoop, Sascha Hoogendoorn-Lanser, Hani S. Mahmassani
At the drone densities anticipated for urban and contested airspace over the coming decades, drone traffic must be managed by decentralised conflict-resolution schemes to ensure feasibility. This paper presents such a decentralised scheme using differential game theory. Each drone optimises its own trajectory over a receding prediction horizon while anticipating the behaviour of its neighbours. By choosing a parameterisation of the cost function, we represent cooperative, Nash and explicit adversarial assumptions about the opponent. The optimal conditions for the ego drone are solved by Pontryagin’s minimum principle using an iterative forward–backward sweep with Anderson-accelerated relaxation.We benchmark the framework against a calibrated reactive social-forces model, tuned so that any remaining differences can be attributed to anticipation. Pairwise experiments cover head-on, orthogonal crossing, overtaking and a one-on-one adversarial encounter; multi-drone experiments cover bi-directional head-on flow, orthogonal crossing flow, and a bottleneck with two cylindrical obstacles. We show that the anticipatory model resolves every cooperative encounter cleanly where the reactive benchmark fails in a distinct way — a “kissing stall” in the symmetric head-on, an off-axis force balance in the crossing, a trailing trap in the overtake — and these failures carry over at scale into reduced safety margins. In the adversarial case the framework absorbs pursuit-evasion under the same solver with a single sign change on one cost parameter, recovering the three qualitative regimes (escape, stalemate, capture) without modifying the iteration. Moreover, the framework reproduces similar efficient self-organising flow patterns (lanes, diagonal stripes) known from pedestrian flow theory in 3D space. ...

A review of their impacts on CO2 emissions

The escalating demand for urban mobility has significantly contributed to increased CO2 emissions, necessitating a shift towards sustainable, low-carbon transportation solutions. Emerging modes and concepts such as micro-mobility, shared mobility, electric mobility and mobility hubs offer promising pathways to reduce vehicle CO2 emissions. This review explores the role of these modes in emission reduction, with particular attention to the integrative function of mobility hubs. This review synthesized current knowledge on the role of emerging transport modes in reducing urban CO₂ emissions. Our analysis through the Life-Cycle Assessment framework and Dynamic Mitigation Model demonstrates that while these modes can lower emissions by facilitating a shift away from private cars, their success is not a guaranteed outcome. Instead, their environmental benefit depends on managing the balance between modal substitution, operational logistics, and vehicle life-cycles. Mobility hubs are a pivotal strategy for mitigating the life cycle emissions associated with shared transport modes by enhancing integration and minimizing indirect emissions. Therefore, the review argues that advancing shared mobility from a niche option to a mainstream solution, supported by strategically implemented mobility hubs, is essential for achieving significant climate benefits. Prioritizing the coordinated deployment of emerging modes and hubs can capture their synergistic advantages, minimizing life-cycle CO2 emissions and advancing the transition toward sustainable urban transport. ...

Queue length estimation via Kalman-based neural networks

Journal article (2026) - Ting Gao, Elvin Isufi, Winnie Daamen, Erik Sander Smits, Serge Hoogendoorn
Estimating queue lengths at signalized intersections is a long-standing challenge in traffic management. Partial observability of vehicle flows complicates this task despite the availability of two privacy-preserving data sources: (i) aggregated vehicle counts from loop detectors near stop lines, and (ii) aggregated floating car data (aFCD) that provide segment-wise average speed measurements. However, how to integrate these sources with differing spatial and temporal resolutions for queue length estimation is rather unclear. Addressing this question, we present Q-Net: a queue estimation framework built upon a state-space formulation. This design addresses key challenges in queue modeling, such as violations of traffic conservation assumptions. Q-Net follows the Kalman predict-update structure and maintains physical interpretability in both the state evolution and measurement models. Q-Net uses an AI-augmented Kalman filter to learn time-varying gain dynamics from data. The framework supports real-time implementation and improves spatial transferability by grouping aFCD measurements into fixed-size local groups, making the number of learnable parameters independent of section length. Evaluations on urban main roads in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, show that Q-Net outperforms baseline methods, tracks queue formation and dissipation accurately, and mitigates aFCD-induced delays. By combining data efficiency, interpretability, real-time applicability, and spatial transferability, Q-Net makes accurate queue length estimation possible without costly sensing infrastructure like cameras or radar. ...
At the end of 2019, SARS-CoV-2 rapidly spread across the globe within a few months. Since then, tackling the virus has been high on national agendas for over three years. As with other respiratory viruses, physical distancing (i.e., requiring sufficient space between individuals) became a key measure to prevent airborne virus transmission between individuals. However, this measure significantly reduces the capacity of pedestrian infrastructure, as more space is needed between people. This paper develops a capacity framework designed to calculate the capacity of pedestrian infrastructure, evaluate its state, and propose tailored interventions when physical distancing regulations are enforced. The framework is founded on the current state-of-the-art in pedestrian operational movement dynamics and determines capacity using three independent key performance indicators: flow rate, density, and interactions. Through two case studies from the COVID-19 pandemic, this paper demonstrates how the framework identifies when and why pedestrian infrastructures become unsafe and enables targeted interventions. The framework's relevance extends beyond the COVID-19 pandemic, offering insights into crowd management and resilient pedestrian infrastructure design for future airborne disease outbreaks. ...

Literature Review, Conceptual Framework, and Future Directions

Journal article (2026) - Jinyang Zhao, Serge P. Hoogendoorn, Haneen Farah
Future traffic will include automated vehicles (AVs) that will interact with other road users, including cyclists. These interactions need to be safe for AVs to be accepted by society. To accomplish this, the interaction process needs to be studied from both the AV’s point of view (AV’s passenger) and cyclists’ point of view. Insights from current interactions between drivers of conventional vehicles (CVs) and cyclists, and the factors contributing to safe interactions, can inform industry of the design of AVs to interact safely and in socially acceptable ways with cyclists. This paper provides a synthesis of the current literature on the interactions between AVs/CVs and cyclists, from four different points of view: 1) from CV drivers’ point of view when interacting with cyclists; 2) from cyclists’ point of view when interacting with CVs; 3) from AVs driver-seat passengers’ point of view when interacting with cyclists; and 4) from cyclists’ point view when interacting with AVs. The literature review included publications between the years 2015-2025 and resulted in 89 relevant scientific papers. Fifty-one papers focused CVs and cyclists interactions, at intersections, and in overtaking maneuvers, while thirty-eight papers focused on cyclists and AVs interactions. Key factors that influence AV-cyclist interactions were identified, including infrastructure, environment, factors influencing vehicle and cyclist behaviors, and rules and regulations. These elements and the factors influencing them were summarized in a conceptual framework. Future research directions are proposed based on the literature review and knowledge gaps identified and were structured following the proposed conceptual framework. ...
Sparse decision tree learning provides accurate and interpretable predictive models that are ideal for high-stakes applications by finding the single most accurate tree within a (soft) size limit. Rather than relying on a single “best” tree, Rashomon sets—trees with similar performance but varying structures—can be used to enhance variable importance analysis, enrich explanations, and enable users to choose simpler trees or those that satisfy stakeholder preferences (e.g., fairness) without hard-coding such criteria into the objective function. However, because finding the optimal tree is NP-hard, enumerating the Rashomon set is inherently challenging. Therefore, we introduce SORTD, a novel framework that improves scalability and enumerates trees in the Rashomon set in order of the objective value, thus offering anytime behavior. Our experiments show that SORTD reduces runtime by up to two orders of magnitude compared with the state of the art. Moreover, SORTD can compute Rashomon sets for any separable and totally ordered objective and supports post-evaluating the set using other separable (and partially ordered) objectives. Together, these advances make exploring Rashomon sets more practical in real-world applications. ...
Journal article (2025) - Weiming Mai, Dorine Duives, Serge Hoogendoorn
In public spaces such as city centers, train stations, airports, shopping malls, and multi-modal hubs, accurately predicting pedestrian flow is crucial for effective crowd management e.g. congestion prevention and evacuation planning. Traditional microscopic simulation models offer fine-grained insights by simulating each pedestrian individually, but they are computationally intensive and typically used at the planning and design stage, making them unsuitable for real-time interventions in high-demand scenarios. Macroscopic models, on the other hand, reduce computational cost by aggregating pedestrian behavior and solving partial differential equations, but they typically require estimates of traffic states such as density and speed — quantities that are difficult to measure accurately in practice. Additionally, as the complexity of these physics-based models increases, their computational feasibility for real-time use becomes even more limited. Data-driven (machine learning) models provide a computationally efficient alternative, enhancing real-time prediction capabilities. However, they often require large historical datasets to generalize well, and their performance can degrade under out-of-distribution (OOD) conditions. Moreover, most black-box learning models lack interpretability and domain-specific insights, limiting their practical adoption. In this paper, we propose a novel pedestrian flow prediction model based on the theory of crowd diffusion. Our method estimates flow rates directly from sensor-observed data and infers both Origin–Destination (OD) demand and route choice probabilities to support real-time operations. To address the OOD challenge, we incorporate an online learning mechanism that continuously calibrates model parameters based on incoming observations. ...
Large Language Models zijn AI-systemen die menselijke taal begrijpen en zich er ook in kunnen uiten. Ze zijn de basis onder populaire applicaties als ChatGPT, Gemini en Copilot. Maar inmiddels is de technologie zó breed inzetbaar dat ze ook doordringt in de mobiliteitssector. Hoe werken de Large Language Models? Hoe kunnen ze van nut zijn in ons vakgebied? En wat zijn de mitsen en maren ...

Analysis of human transport through a mycorrhizal analogy

The field of transportation research addresses the complexities of a particular sociotechnical system. Its usual focus is on human transportation systems, but non-human systems that effect transportation are also abundant in nature. This paper draws an analogy between modern human transportation systems and mycorrhizal networks (MN), the underground networks formed by fungi and plants for resource transportation. By examining MN, the study aims to extract insights applicable to human transport and to explore potential reciprocal learnings about natural systems. The research emphasizes an interdisciplinary approach that acknowledges both the technical and social dimensions of transport. The primary focus is to propose improvements to human transportation by learning from the natural efficiency of MN, thereby fostering a more holistic understanding and implementation of transport solutions. ...

Four scenarios for the Dutch mobility system in 2050

Mobility is vital for societal wellbeing, economic growth, social inclusion, and access to essential amenities. However, the current system faces significant challenges, including environmental impact, unequal access, and safety concerns. […] ...
Are you using tools like ChatGPT in your daily life to help write an email or even draft a construction plan? Just ten years ago, these kinds of capabilities would have seemed unimaginable. Today, they’re becoming part of everyday life for ordinary people. Behind these powerful tools are technologies known as Large Language Models (LLMs)—AI systems that can understand and generate human-like text and now even create images and videos. But what exactly are LLMs? Could they help transform fields like transportation and traffic management? Can they really do everything, or are there still limitations? In this article, we’ll walk you through a general introduction to LLMs: what they are, how they work, and what opportunities—and challenges—they bring to the transportation sector. ...