H.G. van der Voort
Please Note
43 records found
1
A System Analysis Approach to Strengthen Cardiovascular Disease Prevention Policy for Women in the Netherlands
An application and critical reflection of a multi-actor system diagram on a complex multi-actor health prevention problem
Four promising interventions are identified: sex-specific GP training, targeted smoking-cessation outreach, broader eligibility for the Combined Lifestyle Intervention (GLI), and safer physical-activity infrastructure. The system diagrams also reveal feedback loops, coordination failures, and gaps between policy intentions and practical outcomes.
The thesis proposes five recommendations to strengthen accountability for women-specific CVD prevention within existing responsibilities. Overall, the multi-actor system diagram is valuable for identifying systemic problems and leverage points, although it remains a simplified representation of a complex prevention system. ...
Four promising interventions are identified: sex-specific GP training, targeted smoking-cessation outreach, broader eligibility for the Combined Lifestyle Intervention (GLI), and safer physical-activity infrastructure. The system diagrams also reveal feedback loops, coordination failures, and gaps between policy intentions and practical outcomes.
The thesis proposes five recommendations to strengthen accountability for women-specific CVD prevention within existing responsibilities. Overall, the multi-actor system diagram is valuable for identifying systemic problems and leverage points, although it remains a simplified representation of a complex prevention system.
Making Rules Work
Designing a Framework for Scaling Rules as Code in the Dutch Public Sector
The study combines three theoretical lenses: Moore’s public value theory provides the substantive, authorising, and operational dimensions of scaling; Malone and Crowston’s coordination theory identifies the dependency types that make inter-organisational rac persistently difficult; and Van Hout’s public sector scaling framework provides the temporal logic linking validated factors to a phase-structured trajectory. The empirical work proceeds in two phases. Phase 1 is a multiple case study of the three most institutionally advanced Dutch rac implementations combined with eight semi-structured expert interviews with hybrid legal-technical, technical, governance, and external advisory professionals embedded in those cases. Phase 2 is a two-round Delphi study with twelve domain experts that first validates a set of nineteen candidate scaling factors and then positions the validated factors across a three-phase scaling trajectory.
The output is the rac Scaling Process Model: an empirically validated, phase-structured account that positions fourteen scaling factors across three phases (Emergence, Institutionalisation, Stabilisation) and identifies two cross-phase conditions. Four factors anchor the phase structure through single-phase majority: cultural-legal anxiety in Emergence, shared encoding conventions and the legal status of encoded rules in Institutionalisation, and technical interoperability in Stabilisation. Hybrid legaltechnical expertise, cross-domain decision authority, and the remaining validated factors occupy supporting tiers around these anchors. Durable political mandate and citizen trust and contestability operate as cross-phase enabling conditions that must be maintained throughout the trajectory rather than addressed at any single moment. The model is further conditioned by three implementation configurations, self-executing (Belastingdienst), capability-building (RegelRecht), and distributed facilitation (the dso), which encounter the same factor set through structurally different governance trajectories.
The research contributes three theoretical extensions to the literature on rac and digital government scaling. First, the dispersed-actor problem: Moore’s strategic triangle and Malone and Crowston’s coordination theory both presuppose a strategic actor with sufficient cross-vertex authority, a precondition the Dutch interbestuurlijk context does not satisfy. Second, the non-aanvalsverdrag as a fifth coordination failure mode: actors rationally choose not to integrate encoded interpretations because surfacing the underlying disagreements is more costly than indefinite parallel operation, a failure mode that coordination theory’s mechanism-design vocabulary does not anticipate. Third, a scaling-deep timescale and moving-target critique of Van Hout, whose social innovation framework underestimates the capability-building time that hybrid legal-technical expertise requires and the methodological instability that rac tooling introduces during the scaling attempt. Practically, the framework is offered as a phase-structured diagnostic artefact for organisations navigating the transition from pilot to institutional embedding, intended to guide a structured conversation across the actors involved rather than prescribe an outcome. Its grounding in the Dutch institutional context bounds its transferability to other jurisdictions, identified as a target for future research. ...
The study combines three theoretical lenses: Moore’s public value theory provides the substantive, authorising, and operational dimensions of scaling; Malone and Crowston’s coordination theory identifies the dependency types that make inter-organisational rac persistently difficult; and Van Hout’s public sector scaling framework provides the temporal logic linking validated factors to a phase-structured trajectory. The empirical work proceeds in two phases. Phase 1 is a multiple case study of the three most institutionally advanced Dutch rac implementations combined with eight semi-structured expert interviews with hybrid legal-technical, technical, governance, and external advisory professionals embedded in those cases. Phase 2 is a two-round Delphi study with twelve domain experts that first validates a set of nineteen candidate scaling factors and then positions the validated factors across a three-phase scaling trajectory.
The output is the rac Scaling Process Model: an empirically validated, phase-structured account that positions fourteen scaling factors across three phases (Emergence, Institutionalisation, Stabilisation) and identifies two cross-phase conditions. Four factors anchor the phase structure through single-phase majority: cultural-legal anxiety in Emergence, shared encoding conventions and the legal status of encoded rules in Institutionalisation, and technical interoperability in Stabilisation. Hybrid legaltechnical expertise, cross-domain decision authority, and the remaining validated factors occupy supporting tiers around these anchors. Durable political mandate and citizen trust and contestability operate as cross-phase enabling conditions that must be maintained throughout the trajectory rather than addressed at any single moment. The model is further conditioned by three implementation configurations, self-executing (Belastingdienst), capability-building (RegelRecht), and distributed facilitation (the dso), which encounter the same factor set through structurally different governance trajectories.
The research contributes three theoretical extensions to the literature on rac and digital government scaling. First, the dispersed-actor problem: Moore’s strategic triangle and Malone and Crowston’s coordination theory both presuppose a strategic actor with sufficient cross-vertex authority, a precondition the Dutch interbestuurlijk context does not satisfy. Second, the non-aanvalsverdrag as a fifth coordination failure mode: actors rationally choose not to integrate encoded interpretations because surfacing the underlying disagreements is more costly than indefinite parallel operation, a failure mode that coordination theory’s mechanism-design vocabulary does not anticipate. Third, a scaling-deep timescale and moving-target critique of Van Hout, whose social innovation framework underestimates the capability-building time that hybrid legal-technical expertise requires and the methodological instability that rac tooling introduces during the scaling attempt. Practically, the framework is offered as a phase-structured diagnostic artefact for organisations navigating the transition from pilot to institutional embedding, intended to guide a structured conversation across the actors involved rather than prescribe an outcome. Its grounding in the Dutch institutional context bounds its transferability to other jurisdictions, identified as a target for future research.
Mapping EU Carbon Policy
A Carbon Flow Analysis and Policy Coverage Assessment of EU Carbon Governance
An inquiry into the concentration of power in digital markets
An exploratory case study into the link between architectural control and power distribution to propose a digital infrastructure governance framework
The thesis proposes a Digital Infrastructure Governance Framework for this purpose. The framework identifies where power concentration is produced, which actors are affected by it, and where intervention is possible. It combines two lenses. The normative governance lens assesses whether legislative, executive, and judicial governance functions become concentrated in one actor. The architectural governance lens explains how that concentration is produced through architectural permissions, CentralDI dependence, and counterbalancing mechanisms. Together, these lenses connect the assessment of power concentration to the arrangements that produce it.
To structure the analysis, the framework adopts four analytical levels. The digital infrastructure sector (DISector) contains software based systems that become infrastructural because actors depend on proprietary standards, interfaces, protocols, or access permissions. A digital infrastructure market (DIMarket) is organised around a recurring informational need, such as storing, processing, validating, transmitting, or coordinating information. The digital infrastructure arena (DIArena) is the social and technical arena organised around one central digital infrastructure and the actors that provide, use, depend on, or are affected by it. The central digital infrastructure (CentralDI) is the specific infrastructure around which dependence and control relations are assessed.
The normative governance lens operationalises power concentration as Triadic Power Concentration (TPC). Legislative capacity concerns the ability to define rules, access conditions, data requirements, interface standards, or participation conditions. Executive capacity concerns the ability to implement, operate, enforce, rank, validate, or restrict actions through the infrastructure. Judicial capacity concerns the ability to interpret rules, resolve disputes, correct errors, determine exceptions, or decide whether affected actors can appeal. TPC increases when these capacities are concentrated in one actor.
The architectural governance lens explains how this concentration becomes actionable. Architectural permissions specify which actor can perform which operation on which part of the CentralDI. These permissions matter because code and architecture structure behaviour by making some actions possible, others impossible, and others more costly (Lessig, 2000). However, architectural permissions do not mechanically determine power concentration. They specify what a permission holder can do. CentralDI dependence determines how much those actions matter to other actors. Counterbalancing mechanisms determine whether the resulting leverage can be constrained.
The core mechanism is a proportionality relation. Greater unilateral architectural control combined with stronger CentralDI dependence creates a greater need for counterbalancing mechanisms. Dependence is stronger when actors rely on the CentralDI for revenue, visibility, shared state, process execution, identity, reputation, evidence, or partner coordination. Counterbalancing mechanisms can be institutional, competitive, technical, or collective. When these mechanisms are too weak for the degree of control and dependence present, architectural control becomes Emergent Sociotechnical Leverage (ESL): actionable leverage from one actor over another that emerges from the combined social and technical configuration.
Blockchain governance is specified within this framework as a sub-practice of digital infrastructure governance. It is the deliberate use of blockchain architecture to allocate, share, or constrain architectural permissions. Blockchain can distribute validation, execution, auditability, record keeping, access control, and state control across multiple actors. This can reduce one actor’s unilateral control over the CentralDI. The thesis does not treat technical decentralisation as equivalent to power distribution, because effective control can reconcentrate through development authority, token ownership, validator concentration, interface control, infrastructure hosting, voting design, informal coordination, or off chain decision making (De Filippi & Lavayssière, 2020; De Filippi, 2019).
The empirical analysis uses an exploratory multiple case study. It applies the framework to two DIMarkets and three DIArenas. The Donation Based Music Technology Market (DBM-TM) is analysed through Patreon and MusicDAO. The Supply Chain Information Exchange Technology Market (SCIE-TM) is analysed through Vinturas. Patreon represents a centralised platform configuration in which one provider controls recurring patronage infrastructure. Vinturas represents a business to business coordination configuration in which architectural control is partly concentrated, while organisational users and negotiated implementation provide counterbalancing capacity. MusicDAO represents a blockchain based configuration in which formal openness reduces unilateral provider control, while effective governance can reconcentrate through informal coordination, technical expertise, development authority, or codebase control.
The case analysis shows that power concentration cannot be inferred from whether a system is centralised or decentralised. Patreon shows how broad provider permissions become governance power when creators depend on the platform for recurring revenue, audience coordination, visibility, and enforcement. Vinturas shows that concentrated architectural permissions do not necessarily create unbalanced leverage when organisational strength, negotiated implementation, and credible alternatives counterbalance the permission holder. MusicDAO shows that openness can reduce unilateral provider control while also weakening the institutional and collective mechanisms that normally attach accountability to an identifiable actor.
The policy relevance follows from this diagnostic logic. Organisations should treat adoption of a CentralDI as a dependency decision. Before dependence becomes difficult to reverse, they should assess which architectural permissions the provider controls, how workflows, data, revenue, reputation, or partner relations may become embedded, and which counterbalances are available. Regulators and policymakers should assess which governance functions are concentrated, which architectural permissions produce that concentration, which actors depend on the controlled function, and whether intervention should redistribute architectural permissions, lower dependence, or strengthen counterbalancing mechanisms.
...
The thesis proposes a Digital Infrastructure Governance Framework for this purpose. The framework identifies where power concentration is produced, which actors are affected by it, and where intervention is possible. It combines two lenses. The normative governance lens assesses whether legislative, executive, and judicial governance functions become concentrated in one actor. The architectural governance lens explains how that concentration is produced through architectural permissions, CentralDI dependence, and counterbalancing mechanisms. Together, these lenses connect the assessment of power concentration to the arrangements that produce it.
To structure the analysis, the framework adopts four analytical levels. The digital infrastructure sector (DISector) contains software based systems that become infrastructural because actors depend on proprietary standards, interfaces, protocols, or access permissions. A digital infrastructure market (DIMarket) is organised around a recurring informational need, such as storing, processing, validating, transmitting, or coordinating information. The digital infrastructure arena (DIArena) is the social and technical arena organised around one central digital infrastructure and the actors that provide, use, depend on, or are affected by it. The central digital infrastructure (CentralDI) is the specific infrastructure around which dependence and control relations are assessed.
The normative governance lens operationalises power concentration as Triadic Power Concentration (TPC). Legislative capacity concerns the ability to define rules, access conditions, data requirements, interface standards, or participation conditions. Executive capacity concerns the ability to implement, operate, enforce, rank, validate, or restrict actions through the infrastructure. Judicial capacity concerns the ability to interpret rules, resolve disputes, correct errors, determine exceptions, or decide whether affected actors can appeal. TPC increases when these capacities are concentrated in one actor.
The architectural governance lens explains how this concentration becomes actionable. Architectural permissions specify which actor can perform which operation on which part of the CentralDI. These permissions matter because code and architecture structure behaviour by making some actions possible, others impossible, and others more costly (Lessig, 2000). However, architectural permissions do not mechanically determine power concentration. They specify what a permission holder can do. CentralDI dependence determines how much those actions matter to other actors. Counterbalancing mechanisms determine whether the resulting leverage can be constrained.
The core mechanism is a proportionality relation. Greater unilateral architectural control combined with stronger CentralDI dependence creates a greater need for counterbalancing mechanisms. Dependence is stronger when actors rely on the CentralDI for revenue, visibility, shared state, process execution, identity, reputation, evidence, or partner coordination. Counterbalancing mechanisms can be institutional, competitive, technical, or collective. When these mechanisms are too weak for the degree of control and dependence present, architectural control becomes Emergent Sociotechnical Leverage (ESL): actionable leverage from one actor over another that emerges from the combined social and technical configuration.
Blockchain governance is specified within this framework as a sub-practice of digital infrastructure governance. It is the deliberate use of blockchain architecture to allocate, share, or constrain architectural permissions. Blockchain can distribute validation, execution, auditability, record keeping, access control, and state control across multiple actors. This can reduce one actor’s unilateral control over the CentralDI. The thesis does not treat technical decentralisation as equivalent to power distribution, because effective control can reconcentrate through development authority, token ownership, validator concentration, interface control, infrastructure hosting, voting design, informal coordination, or off chain decision making (De Filippi & Lavayssière, 2020; De Filippi, 2019).
The empirical analysis uses an exploratory multiple case study. It applies the framework to two DIMarkets and three DIArenas. The Donation Based Music Technology Market (DBM-TM) is analysed through Patreon and MusicDAO. The Supply Chain Information Exchange Technology Market (SCIE-TM) is analysed through Vinturas. Patreon represents a centralised platform configuration in which one provider controls recurring patronage infrastructure. Vinturas represents a business to business coordination configuration in which architectural control is partly concentrated, while organisational users and negotiated implementation provide counterbalancing capacity. MusicDAO represents a blockchain based configuration in which formal openness reduces unilateral provider control, while effective governance can reconcentrate through informal coordination, technical expertise, development authority, or codebase control.
The case analysis shows that power concentration cannot be inferred from whether a system is centralised or decentralised. Patreon shows how broad provider permissions become governance power when creators depend on the platform for recurring revenue, audience coordination, visibility, and enforcement. Vinturas shows that concentrated architectural permissions do not necessarily create unbalanced leverage when organisational strength, negotiated implementation, and credible alternatives counterbalance the permission holder. MusicDAO shows that openness can reduce unilateral provider control while also weakening the institutional and collective mechanisms that normally attach accountability to an identifiable actor.
The policy relevance follows from this diagnostic logic. Organisations should treat adoption of a CentralDI as a dependency decision. Before dependence becomes difficult to reverse, they should assess which architectural permissions the provider controls, how workflows, data, revenue, reputation, or partner relations may become embedded, and which counterbalances are available. Regulators and policymakers should assess which governance functions are concentrated, which architectural permissions produce that concentration, which actors depend on the controlled function, and whether intervention should redistribute architectural permissions, lower dependence, or strengthen counterbalancing mechanisms.
Inflation expectations and the role of forward guidance in semi-structured full scale macro economic models
A case study using the influential FRB/US model
The FED reacted so late because they put faith in a relatively new tool used by central banks all over the (Western) world, forward guidance. This tool is a statement central banks publish about their future monetary policy, which implies future inflation rates. If economic actors view their central bank as credible, they will trust this statement and use it to update their own inflation expectations. Inflation expectations are seen as a strong component of inflation dynamics in the orthodox economic theory. In some theories they are seen to have a stronger hold on inflation than the interest rate.
Central banks had put a lot of faith in forward guidance. They were sure people's inflation expectations would stay anchored (or stable). This would theoretically result in inflation coming down quickly, without the need to raise interest rates and slowing the economy down. However, inflation rates did not come down quickly and central banks still had to raise rates. It is important to understand why forward guidance was seen as so important and if there are other ways of keeping inflation expectations anchored.
Central banks use models to predict the future development of the economy. They use them to determine and test policies. Based on these models, they decide what action to take. These models are a great way to gain a deeper understanding of the world view of central bankers and forward guidance. A key model that has paved the way for other similar models is the FRB/US model of the FED. This is a semi-structured full scale economic model of the US economy. Other central banks have explicitly taken this model as inspiration for their own models. Therefore, the FRB/US model is a good case study to gain a deeper understanding of inflation dynamics and forward guidance.
We have taken a deep look at the inflation dynamics of the FRB/US model. We have mapped out the dynamics with a combination of causal loop diagrams and Sobol Indices. Our research has shown that inflation expectations, specifically the long-term inflation expectations are critical. They dominate the whole dynamics. In realistic situations, there is very little price inflation possible if the long-term inflation expectations stay anchored. Furthermore, the long-term inflation expectations go towards 2%, the target rate of the FED, relatively quickly. This makes it almost impossible for persistent inflation to show up in the model.
This has strong implications for monetary policy. Long-term inflation expectations can not be influenced by setting interest rates. Changing the interest rate has been shown to have very little effect on the wider inflation dynamics in the FRB/US model. Forward guidance is not explicitly modelled. The only tool the central bank can use to influence long-term inflation expectations is the target inflation rate. This can possibly be seen as a very limited, but implicit modelling of forward guidance. However, there is no space in the FRB/US model for the credibility of the central bank. This is critical for forward guidance.
The fact that the interest rates have little effect on the price inflation does not mean that the FED can just lower rates to 0. The little effect it does have does bring inflation up in the long-run. Furthermore, in the long run, the effectiveness of the federal funds rate rises as the FED has the ability to iterate its policy rate on the current economic situation. We also have not researched the effect of the federal funds rate on other key economic variables outside of inflation.
The modelling of the long-term inflation expectations is very limited. This is concerning, given its dominance over the inflation dynamics. Its limited modelling gives very little tools to the central bank. Its main tool, the ability to set interest rates, is practically ineffective when it comes to lowering price inflation.
In its current form, inflation management is solely a task of the central bank. They impose their view and policy on the economy. In our research, we have looked into a different possible approach. One where both the goal and the burden can be shared between the main actors in the economy: a Social Pact. We have investigated a scenario where the long-term inflation expectations have been high for a longer period of time. Our research has shown that a social pact, where the government, unions and employer organizations come together to share the load, can be beneficial to inflation levels, as well as the unemployment rate and wider economic performance. These positive effects are present in the short-medium term. In the long-run, all effects go away, as the model is explicitly built to reach a pre-defined steady state in the long-run. In this scenario, the responsibility for inflation management is shared between the government, unions and employer organizations. The central bank still holds its elevated position to act upon the actions of the other actors.
We have also investigated the option of the central bank joining the pact. This would bring the central bank down to the same position as the other actors. The scenario we have investigated has the central bank changing its policy rule. Our research has shown that this has limited, but positive effects, as the economic recovery from the shock is a few years faster. The policy rule change is still only a limited shift from our current economic situation. More far-reaching options that to put the central bank on more equal footing as the other actors are promising routes for future research. However, bringing the central bank down from its elevated position undermines its independence. This is a policy choice that can be made but this has to be done with the utmost care, especially given the current political climate.
Our research has introduced the technique of applying Sobol Indices to the causal links in causal loop diagrams. Although there are limitations to this method, as Sobol Indices are developed to be used with independent input variables, we have shown that these can be mitigated.
Our research implies that the central bank has a very small role when it comes to inflation dynamics. This could be true and would mean that policy makers, as well as the wider public have to update their views on the role of the central bank in our economy. However, it is too early to jump to such conclusions. More research is required to find out whether this implication is only a property of the FRB/US model, or of New-Keynesian (semi-structured) models or of wider orthodox macro-economic theory. Another implication could be that the dominance and the specific modeling of the long-term inflation expectations explain the consistent underestimation of the risk of persisting inflation, following the inflationary spike after the covid pandemic. This also requires more research, both into the FRB/US model as into other macro-economic models.
Our research into Social Pacts has shown potential for this tool. We have shown that they have potential in re-anchoring long-term inflation expectations. Social Pacts could turn out to be a very useful tool for policy makers, especially if it turns out that central banks have a more limited impact on inflation dynamics than currently presumed.
Our research does have some notable limitations. The most important one relates to the calculation of the Sobol Indices. These have been calculated for a specific subset of conditions. These are plausible conditions. However, more research and simulations are required to find out if the Sobol Indices show similar results under different conditions.
Future research could explore the role of the (long-term) inflation expectations in more models used by central banks and find out if our conclusions hold for those models too. Furthermore, more research is required to find out if central banks indeed hold less control over the inflation dynamics than presumed, as the modelling world does not always line up with the real world. ...
The FED reacted so late because they put faith in a relatively new tool used by central banks all over the (Western) world, forward guidance. This tool is a statement central banks publish about their future monetary policy, which implies future inflation rates. If economic actors view their central bank as credible, they will trust this statement and use it to update their own inflation expectations. Inflation expectations are seen as a strong component of inflation dynamics in the orthodox economic theory. In some theories they are seen to have a stronger hold on inflation than the interest rate.
Central banks had put a lot of faith in forward guidance. They were sure people's inflation expectations would stay anchored (or stable). This would theoretically result in inflation coming down quickly, without the need to raise interest rates and slowing the economy down. However, inflation rates did not come down quickly and central banks still had to raise rates. It is important to understand why forward guidance was seen as so important and if there are other ways of keeping inflation expectations anchored.
Central banks use models to predict the future development of the economy. They use them to determine and test policies. Based on these models, they decide what action to take. These models are a great way to gain a deeper understanding of the world view of central bankers and forward guidance. A key model that has paved the way for other similar models is the FRB/US model of the FED. This is a semi-structured full scale economic model of the US economy. Other central banks have explicitly taken this model as inspiration for their own models. Therefore, the FRB/US model is a good case study to gain a deeper understanding of inflation dynamics and forward guidance.
We have taken a deep look at the inflation dynamics of the FRB/US model. We have mapped out the dynamics with a combination of causal loop diagrams and Sobol Indices. Our research has shown that inflation expectations, specifically the long-term inflation expectations are critical. They dominate the whole dynamics. In realistic situations, there is very little price inflation possible if the long-term inflation expectations stay anchored. Furthermore, the long-term inflation expectations go towards 2%, the target rate of the FED, relatively quickly. This makes it almost impossible for persistent inflation to show up in the model.
This has strong implications for monetary policy. Long-term inflation expectations can not be influenced by setting interest rates. Changing the interest rate has been shown to have very little effect on the wider inflation dynamics in the FRB/US model. Forward guidance is not explicitly modelled. The only tool the central bank can use to influence long-term inflation expectations is the target inflation rate. This can possibly be seen as a very limited, but implicit modelling of forward guidance. However, there is no space in the FRB/US model for the credibility of the central bank. This is critical for forward guidance.
The fact that the interest rates have little effect on the price inflation does not mean that the FED can just lower rates to 0. The little effect it does have does bring inflation up in the long-run. Furthermore, in the long run, the effectiveness of the federal funds rate rises as the FED has the ability to iterate its policy rate on the current economic situation. We also have not researched the effect of the federal funds rate on other key economic variables outside of inflation.
The modelling of the long-term inflation expectations is very limited. This is concerning, given its dominance over the inflation dynamics. Its limited modelling gives very little tools to the central bank. Its main tool, the ability to set interest rates, is practically ineffective when it comes to lowering price inflation.
In its current form, inflation management is solely a task of the central bank. They impose their view and policy on the economy. In our research, we have looked into a different possible approach. One where both the goal and the burden can be shared between the main actors in the economy: a Social Pact. We have investigated a scenario where the long-term inflation expectations have been high for a longer period of time. Our research has shown that a social pact, where the government, unions and employer organizations come together to share the load, can be beneficial to inflation levels, as well as the unemployment rate and wider economic performance. These positive effects are present in the short-medium term. In the long-run, all effects go away, as the model is explicitly built to reach a pre-defined steady state in the long-run. In this scenario, the responsibility for inflation management is shared between the government, unions and employer organizations. The central bank still holds its elevated position to act upon the actions of the other actors.
We have also investigated the option of the central bank joining the pact. This would bring the central bank down to the same position as the other actors. The scenario we have investigated has the central bank changing its policy rule. Our research has shown that this has limited, but positive effects, as the economic recovery from the shock is a few years faster. The policy rule change is still only a limited shift from our current economic situation. More far-reaching options that to put the central bank on more equal footing as the other actors are promising routes for future research. However, bringing the central bank down from its elevated position undermines its independence. This is a policy choice that can be made but this has to be done with the utmost care, especially given the current political climate.
Our research has introduced the technique of applying Sobol Indices to the causal links in causal loop diagrams. Although there are limitations to this method, as Sobol Indices are developed to be used with independent input variables, we have shown that these can be mitigated.
Our research implies that the central bank has a very small role when it comes to inflation dynamics. This could be true and would mean that policy makers, as well as the wider public have to update their views on the role of the central bank in our economy. However, it is too early to jump to such conclusions. More research is required to find out whether this implication is only a property of the FRB/US model, or of New-Keynesian (semi-structured) models or of wider orthodox macro-economic theory. Another implication could be that the dominance and the specific modeling of the long-term inflation expectations explain the consistent underestimation of the risk of persisting inflation, following the inflationary spike after the covid pandemic. This also requires more research, both into the FRB/US model as into other macro-economic models.
Our research into Social Pacts has shown potential for this tool. We have shown that they have potential in re-anchoring long-term inflation expectations. Social Pacts could turn out to be a very useful tool for policy makers, especially if it turns out that central banks have a more limited impact on inflation dynamics than currently presumed.
Our research does have some notable limitations. The most important one relates to the calculation of the Sobol Indices. These have been calculated for a specific subset of conditions. These are plausible conditions. However, more research and simulations are required to find out if the Sobol Indices show similar results under different conditions.
Future research could explore the role of the (long-term) inflation expectations in more models used by central banks and find out if our conclusions hold for those models too. Furthermore, more research is required to find out if central banks indeed hold less control over the inflation dynamics than presumed, as the modelling world does not always line up with the real world.
Surroundings engagement management
Revealing the profiles
This research explores how government-led procurement can be structured to support the sustained adoption of high-cost medical devices in LMICs, focusing on Malawi as a case study. A qualitative research design was adopted, using semi-structured interviews with key informants directly involved in the public procurement of medical devices in Malawi. These interviews provided insights into procurement practices, decision-making structures, and broader institutional dynamics. To guide the analysis, this research applies the Adaptability, Scalability, and Sustainability (ASaS) model, a decision-oriented framework designed to assess whether health interventions can be adapted, scaled, and sustained over time. The ASaS model is used as an evaluative tool to assess how well Malawi’s procurement practices align with key determinants of sustained adoption and to identify opportunities for improvement.
The findings show that public procurement of high-cost medical devices in Malawi is organised through a multi-layered system operating across national, institutional, and operational levels. Procurement processes are centrally governed to ensure regulatory oversight and financial accountability, with institutions such as the Internal Procurement and Disposal Committee (IPDC), the Public Procurement and Disposal of Assets Authority (PPDA), and the Ministry of Justice overseeing compliance with national priorities under the PPDA Act of 2017. These formal structures define clear steps for procurement, including needs assessments, technical specifications, supplier selection, tendering, contract negotiation, and quality assurance to ensure procured devices meet required standards. However, while procurement structures define formal decision-making processes, procurement practices encompass the broader systemic and institutional conditions that shape how these processes function in practice and influence procurement outcomes.
Procurement practices in Malawi face challenges that affect the sustained adoption of high-cost medical devices. Externally, fragmented procurement between donor-driven and government-led acquisitions leads to the introduction of devices without government oversight, limiting central tracking and complicating procurement and maintenance planning. Funding constraints further restrict the ability to acquire and sustain essential devices. Although regulatory frameworks promote transparency, they often result in a proliferation of device types that are difficult to manage over time. Internally, poor coordination between procurement and planning departments leads to delays and misalignment with facility readiness. In addition, weak monitoring and evaluation systems hinder follow-up on device functionality and prevent evidence-based decision-making. Finally, procurement outcomes are shaped by device-specific factors, including maintenance needs, spare parts availability, and alignment with clinical workflows, which are not consistently addressed in procurement processes, increasing the risk that devices will become underutilised or non-functional.
Based on these findings, the research concludes that supporting the sustained adoption of high-cost medical devices in Malawi requires shifting from cost-driven acquisition models to more strategic procurement processes that incorporate the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO). Procurement decisions should account for long-term costs such as maintenance, spare parts, operation, and supplier service commitments. Additionally, establishing a centralised national inventory and tracking system for medical devices would improve oversight, support more accurate needs assessments, and enhance future procurement planning. Moving toward evidence-based procurement will require the development of monitoring and evaluation systems to track device functionality and usage over time, ensuring that medical devices remain operational and integrated into healthcare delivery.
Beyond procurement processes, institutional design also influences procurement outcomes. A better balance is needed between centralised technical expertise and local facility input to improve the alignment of procurement decisions with clinical needs and usability. Integration of usability assessments at the need identification stage could help ensure that selected medical devices are both clinically essential and aligned with existing workflows. At the same time, navigating the trade-offs between transparency, competition, and standardisation is essential. While open competition remains important for fairness, moving toward a more standardised selection of device types could simplify maintenance, training, and spare parts sourcing, thereby supporting long-term usability and integration into clinical workflows.
In conclusion, this research underscores that the sustained adoption of high-cost medical devices in Malawi requires rethinking both procurement processes and the broader institutional frameworks in which they are embedded. Aligning procurement with healthcare system capacities requires moving beyond cost-driven acquisitions toward approaches that account for long-term usability, maintenance, and operation. Embedding these elements into procurement planning, alongside the development of monitoring and reporting mechanisms, would help ensure that procurement decisions are aligned with real needs and capacities within healthcare facilities. Equally important is addressing institutional design to ensure that procurement processes are supported by governance structures capable of integrating clinical, technical, and operational perspectives. By aligning procurement with the realities of healthcare system capacities and embedding long-term considerations, Malawi can move from acquiring medical devices to ensuring their sustained use. These insights are critical for policymakers and practitioners seeking to strengthen healthcare systems and promote sustainable outcomes from medical device investments.
...
This research explores how government-led procurement can be structured to support the sustained adoption of high-cost medical devices in LMICs, focusing on Malawi as a case study. A qualitative research design was adopted, using semi-structured interviews with key informants directly involved in the public procurement of medical devices in Malawi. These interviews provided insights into procurement practices, decision-making structures, and broader institutional dynamics. To guide the analysis, this research applies the Adaptability, Scalability, and Sustainability (ASaS) model, a decision-oriented framework designed to assess whether health interventions can be adapted, scaled, and sustained over time. The ASaS model is used as an evaluative tool to assess how well Malawi’s procurement practices align with key determinants of sustained adoption and to identify opportunities for improvement.
The findings show that public procurement of high-cost medical devices in Malawi is organised through a multi-layered system operating across national, institutional, and operational levels. Procurement processes are centrally governed to ensure regulatory oversight and financial accountability, with institutions such as the Internal Procurement and Disposal Committee (IPDC), the Public Procurement and Disposal of Assets Authority (PPDA), and the Ministry of Justice overseeing compliance with national priorities under the PPDA Act of 2017. These formal structures define clear steps for procurement, including needs assessments, technical specifications, supplier selection, tendering, contract negotiation, and quality assurance to ensure procured devices meet required standards. However, while procurement structures define formal decision-making processes, procurement practices encompass the broader systemic and institutional conditions that shape how these processes function in practice and influence procurement outcomes.
Procurement practices in Malawi face challenges that affect the sustained adoption of high-cost medical devices. Externally, fragmented procurement between donor-driven and government-led acquisitions leads to the introduction of devices without government oversight, limiting central tracking and complicating procurement and maintenance planning. Funding constraints further restrict the ability to acquire and sustain essential devices. Although regulatory frameworks promote transparency, they often result in a proliferation of device types that are difficult to manage over time. Internally, poor coordination between procurement and planning departments leads to delays and misalignment with facility readiness. In addition, weak monitoring and evaluation systems hinder follow-up on device functionality and prevent evidence-based decision-making. Finally, procurement outcomes are shaped by device-specific factors, including maintenance needs, spare parts availability, and alignment with clinical workflows, which are not consistently addressed in procurement processes, increasing the risk that devices will become underutilised or non-functional.
Based on these findings, the research concludes that supporting the sustained adoption of high-cost medical devices in Malawi requires shifting from cost-driven acquisition models to more strategic procurement processes that incorporate the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO). Procurement decisions should account for long-term costs such as maintenance, spare parts, operation, and supplier service commitments. Additionally, establishing a centralised national inventory and tracking system for medical devices would improve oversight, support more accurate needs assessments, and enhance future procurement planning. Moving toward evidence-based procurement will require the development of monitoring and evaluation systems to track device functionality and usage over time, ensuring that medical devices remain operational and integrated into healthcare delivery.
Beyond procurement processes, institutional design also influences procurement outcomes. A better balance is needed between centralised technical expertise and local facility input to improve the alignment of procurement decisions with clinical needs and usability. Integration of usability assessments at the need identification stage could help ensure that selected medical devices are both clinically essential and aligned with existing workflows. At the same time, navigating the trade-offs between transparency, competition, and standardisation is essential. While open competition remains important for fairness, moving toward a more standardised selection of device types could simplify maintenance, training, and spare parts sourcing, thereby supporting long-term usability and integration into clinical workflows.
In conclusion, this research underscores that the sustained adoption of high-cost medical devices in Malawi requires rethinking both procurement processes and the broader institutional frameworks in which they are embedded. Aligning procurement with healthcare system capacities requires moving beyond cost-driven acquisitions toward approaches that account for long-term usability, maintenance, and operation. Embedding these elements into procurement planning, alongside the development of monitoring and reporting mechanisms, would help ensure that procurement decisions are aligned with real needs and capacities within healthcare facilities. Equally important is addressing institutional design to ensure that procurement processes are supported by governance structures capable of integrating clinical, technical, and operational perspectives. By aligning procurement with the realities of healthcare system capacities and embedding long-term considerations, Malawi can move from acquiring medical devices to ensuring their sustained use. These insights are critical for policymakers and practitioners seeking to strengthen healthcare systems and promote sustainable outcomes from medical device investments.
The dynamics between VCs and token-based startups
A comparative study of startup’s lifecycle, investment mechanisms and VC value-add
Managing Value Conflicts in Digital Proactive Public Services
The Complicating Conditions
This thesis examines the contextual conditions shaping the management of value conflicts in digital proactive public services, focusing on the Dutch Persoonlijke Regelingen Assistent (PRA) project, which aims to centralize Dutch regulations and provide proactive notifications and assistance. The project, still in its design phase, offers insights into how contextual conditions impact proactive application development. These findings can be extrapolated to broader proactive public services contexts.
The thesis uses existing literature to identify crucial values and assess their manifestation in proactive applications. It employs the Value Sensitive Design (VSD) approach to construct value hierarchies, identifying conflicting and enabling values. Strategies for handling value conflicts are evaluated and extended with public policy design strategies, highlighting the influence of contextual conditions on value conflicts and their resolution.
A framework of conditions was established to illustrate their impact on value conflicts and strategies. Political conditions, such as ideology-based values and funding priorities, influence dominant values. Governance conditions affect practical matters like funding, project timelines, and stakeholder involvement. Procedural conditions in the design process involve key trade-offs. Legal and technical conditions are crucial for data processing applications, impacting privacy and proactivity conflicts. Social conditions determine the application's reception and effectiveness, with sensitivity to expectations, stigma, and readiness being vital.
Public organizations must set realistic objectives, consider contextual conditions, and anticipate outcomes at each step. A chosen strategy for managing value conflicts from the start can ease decision-making. Evaluated strategies have varying practicality and benefits, complicated by the context-dependency of value conflicts. A learning strategy is recommended, involving multiple strategies and stakeholder coordination to gather practical insights.
To formalize this process, appointing an organization at the meso-level of governance is suggested. This organization would evaluate project queries based on past cases and value conflict consequences, bridging the gap between macro-level government legislation and micro-level standards. This body of knowledge would guide responsible innovation in the public sector, enabling designers, policymakers, and scientists to learn from each other’s cases and contribute collectively to progress.
In summary, proactivity in digital public services holds promise but requires careful consideration of contextual conditions and value conflicts. A meso-level organization can provide the necessary guidance and knowledge to navigate these challenges effectively. ...
This thesis examines the contextual conditions shaping the management of value conflicts in digital proactive public services, focusing on the Dutch Persoonlijke Regelingen Assistent (PRA) project, which aims to centralize Dutch regulations and provide proactive notifications and assistance. The project, still in its design phase, offers insights into how contextual conditions impact proactive application development. These findings can be extrapolated to broader proactive public services contexts.
The thesis uses existing literature to identify crucial values and assess their manifestation in proactive applications. It employs the Value Sensitive Design (VSD) approach to construct value hierarchies, identifying conflicting and enabling values. Strategies for handling value conflicts are evaluated and extended with public policy design strategies, highlighting the influence of contextual conditions on value conflicts and their resolution.
A framework of conditions was established to illustrate their impact on value conflicts and strategies. Political conditions, such as ideology-based values and funding priorities, influence dominant values. Governance conditions affect practical matters like funding, project timelines, and stakeholder involvement. Procedural conditions in the design process involve key trade-offs. Legal and technical conditions are crucial for data processing applications, impacting privacy and proactivity conflicts. Social conditions determine the application's reception and effectiveness, with sensitivity to expectations, stigma, and readiness being vital.
Public organizations must set realistic objectives, consider contextual conditions, and anticipate outcomes at each step. A chosen strategy for managing value conflicts from the start can ease decision-making. Evaluated strategies have varying practicality and benefits, complicated by the context-dependency of value conflicts. A learning strategy is recommended, involving multiple strategies and stakeholder coordination to gather practical insights.
To formalize this process, appointing an organization at the meso-level of governance is suggested. This organization would evaluate project queries based on past cases and value conflict consequences, bridging the gap between macro-level government legislation and micro-level standards. This body of knowledge would guide responsible innovation in the public sector, enabling designers, policymakers, and scientists to learn from each other’s cases and contribute collectively to progress.
In summary, proactivity in digital public services holds promise but requires careful consideration of contextual conditions and value conflicts. A meso-level organization can provide the necessary guidance and knowledge to navigate these challenges effectively.
Beyond conventional growth
Analysing economic growth through the lens of hysteresis
On one hand, there are demand-side factors such as consumer spending and investment, which primarily drive economic fluctuations. On the other hand, there are supply-side factors like technological innovation and labour force growth, which set the potential output path of an economy. This potential output represents the maximum production level an economy can achieve without causing inflation, acting as a centre of gravity for actual economic dynamics.
Potential output is particularly crucial for Eurozone countries due to its significant role in fiscal regulations and monetary policy. Fiscal rules, such as those governing structural budget balance, require countries to align their budgets with potential output to ensure sustainable public finances. The European Central Bank (ECB) monitors the output gap—the difference between actual and potential output—to assess whether economies are approaching inflationary limits. Both fiscal and monetary policies thus rely heavily on the concept of potential output, highlighting its importance in maintaining economic stability and growth.
This research aims to enhance the understanding of economic growth through a simple demand-led model that incorporates hysteresis—the lasting effects of demand-side dynamics on potential output. Despite increasing recognition of hysteresis, few studies have developed straightforward dynamic models integrating these mechanisms. Notable exceptions include the work of Fazzari, Ferri, and Variato (2020), who examined hysteresis effects on US economic growth using a simple demand-led model. This study extends their framework, using Italy's economy from 1979 to 2018 as a case study, and introduces key conceptual and methodological changes to improve model accuracy and uncertainty analysis.
Italy's economic context, marked by low and stagnant GDP and labour productivity growth, high unemployment, and widespread involuntary part-time employment, provides a unique setting for this investigation. The Fazzari, Ferri, and Variato (2020) model is demand-led, with potential output as the upper boundary for economic dynamics. Demand-side factors, especially autonomous components like government spending and exports, shape the system's evolution. Hysteresis mechanisms link potential output to changes in unemployment rates and capital stock accumulation, challenging traditional views that separate supply-side and demand-side dynamics.
Dynamic simulations of the model across various scenarios yield critical insights. Accurate simulations require specific values for key parameters, such as the propensity to save and the long-run target capital-output ratio. The model reveals a trade-off between accurately describing demand-side and supply-side dynamics, particularly regarding labour productivity evolution post-1990s and general labour supply trends over the study period.
The empirical simulations show that the stability of steady-state solutions depends mainly on certain demand-side parameters. The adjustment speed for expected growth (α)—indicating how many years of past yearly growth are used by households to form future growth expectations (with higher α implying a longer memory)—and the adjustment speed for the capital-output ratio (λ)—showing how quickly the actual capital-output ratio converges to its long-run value set by firms—are critical.
Accurate scenarios for the Italian economy fall outside the unstable range, ensuring stable economic dynamics. However, the value of α suggests caution due to the implied long memories of past growth in forming future expectations.
Our research introduces unique conceptual and methodological tools that enhance the analysis of economic growth. The use of Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) visually represents feedback loops and interdependencies within the model, making complex relationships easier to understand and communicate. Additionally, our empirical analysis employs the All-Factors-At-a-Time (AAT) method, which allows for simultaneous variation of all model parameters across their feasible ranges. This approach offers a more comprehensive and realistic examination of non-linear systems compared to traditional methods.
For policymakers, recognising hysteresis and integrating these advanced tools into economic models can lead to more informed and effective decision-making. By considering the long-term impacts of demand-side policies on potential output, and using visual and comprehensive analytical methods, policymakers can better navigate the complexities of economic growth and stability. This research advocates for a more integrated and nuanced approach to economic policy, fostering broader dialogue and enhancing our collective understanding of growth dynamics.
While this research provides valuable insights, it acknowledges several limitations. Methodologically, the study relied on assumptions about the initial capital-output ratio and growth rates due to a lack of initial data, potentially impacting model accuracy. The empirical approach, while intuitive, may lack the mathematical rigour needed for robust results, and more advanced econometric techniques could enhance parameter estimates. Conceptually, the model struggled to capture supply-side dynamics, particularly labour productivity stagnation and labour supply evolution. The reliance on exogenous inputs for autonomous demand components limits the model’s ability to fully replicate real-world demand-side dynamics.
Future research should build on this work by expanding the current model to better capture case-specific information, particularly recognising the impact of austerity measures on Italy’s economy. Revising the hysteresis mechanisms is crucial to accurately reflect the dynamics of supply-side variables, incorporating factors such as labour protection legislation and financialisation proxies. Additionally, addressing inequality and ecological constraints within the model could provide a more comprehensive understanding of sustainable economic growth. These aspects are critical for enhancing the model’s applicability and relevance in public and policy debates.
Moreover, comparative analysis using different models, such as the Solow-Swan model, could offer unique perspectives on economic growth theories and their assumptions. Exploring the connection between economic modelling and policymaking, particularly how diverse economic theories are integrated into policymaking, presents another promising avenue. This could involve interviews with experts to understand how models are employed in major policymaking institutions and how a plurality of economic theories can be effectively communicated to the public. By addressing these areas, future research can enhance the robustness and applicability of economic growth models.
...
On one hand, there are demand-side factors such as consumer spending and investment, which primarily drive economic fluctuations. On the other hand, there are supply-side factors like technological innovation and labour force growth, which set the potential output path of an economy. This potential output represents the maximum production level an economy can achieve without causing inflation, acting as a centre of gravity for actual economic dynamics.
Potential output is particularly crucial for Eurozone countries due to its significant role in fiscal regulations and monetary policy. Fiscal rules, such as those governing structural budget balance, require countries to align their budgets with potential output to ensure sustainable public finances. The European Central Bank (ECB) monitors the output gap—the difference between actual and potential output—to assess whether economies are approaching inflationary limits. Both fiscal and monetary policies thus rely heavily on the concept of potential output, highlighting its importance in maintaining economic stability and growth.
This research aims to enhance the understanding of economic growth through a simple demand-led model that incorporates hysteresis—the lasting effects of demand-side dynamics on potential output. Despite increasing recognition of hysteresis, few studies have developed straightforward dynamic models integrating these mechanisms. Notable exceptions include the work of Fazzari, Ferri, and Variato (2020), who examined hysteresis effects on US economic growth using a simple demand-led model. This study extends their framework, using Italy's economy from 1979 to 2018 as a case study, and introduces key conceptual and methodological changes to improve model accuracy and uncertainty analysis.
Italy's economic context, marked by low and stagnant GDP and labour productivity growth, high unemployment, and widespread involuntary part-time employment, provides a unique setting for this investigation. The Fazzari, Ferri, and Variato (2020) model is demand-led, with potential output as the upper boundary for economic dynamics. Demand-side factors, especially autonomous components like government spending and exports, shape the system's evolution. Hysteresis mechanisms link potential output to changes in unemployment rates and capital stock accumulation, challenging traditional views that separate supply-side and demand-side dynamics.
Dynamic simulations of the model across various scenarios yield critical insights. Accurate simulations require specific values for key parameters, such as the propensity to save and the long-run target capital-output ratio. The model reveals a trade-off between accurately describing demand-side and supply-side dynamics, particularly regarding labour productivity evolution post-1990s and general labour supply trends over the study period.
The empirical simulations show that the stability of steady-state solutions depends mainly on certain demand-side parameters. The adjustment speed for expected growth (α)—indicating how many years of past yearly growth are used by households to form future growth expectations (with higher α implying a longer memory)—and the adjustment speed for the capital-output ratio (λ)—showing how quickly the actual capital-output ratio converges to its long-run value set by firms—are critical.
Accurate scenarios for the Italian economy fall outside the unstable range, ensuring stable economic dynamics. However, the value of α suggests caution due to the implied long memories of past growth in forming future expectations.
Our research introduces unique conceptual and methodological tools that enhance the analysis of economic growth. The use of Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) visually represents feedback loops and interdependencies within the model, making complex relationships easier to understand and communicate. Additionally, our empirical analysis employs the All-Factors-At-a-Time (AAT) method, which allows for simultaneous variation of all model parameters across their feasible ranges. This approach offers a more comprehensive and realistic examination of non-linear systems compared to traditional methods.
For policymakers, recognising hysteresis and integrating these advanced tools into economic models can lead to more informed and effective decision-making. By considering the long-term impacts of demand-side policies on potential output, and using visual and comprehensive analytical methods, policymakers can better navigate the complexities of economic growth and stability. This research advocates for a more integrated and nuanced approach to economic policy, fostering broader dialogue and enhancing our collective understanding of growth dynamics.
While this research provides valuable insights, it acknowledges several limitations. Methodologically, the study relied on assumptions about the initial capital-output ratio and growth rates due to a lack of initial data, potentially impacting model accuracy. The empirical approach, while intuitive, may lack the mathematical rigour needed for robust results, and more advanced econometric techniques could enhance parameter estimates. Conceptually, the model struggled to capture supply-side dynamics, particularly labour productivity stagnation and labour supply evolution. The reliance on exogenous inputs for autonomous demand components limits the model’s ability to fully replicate real-world demand-side dynamics.
Future research should build on this work by expanding the current model to better capture case-specific information, particularly recognising the impact of austerity measures on Italy’s economy. Revising the hysteresis mechanisms is crucial to accurately reflect the dynamics of supply-side variables, incorporating factors such as labour protection legislation and financialisation proxies. Additionally, addressing inequality and ecological constraints within the model could provide a more comprehensive understanding of sustainable economic growth. These aspects are critical for enhancing the model’s applicability and relevance in public and policy debates.
Moreover, comparative analysis using different models, such as the Solow-Swan model, could offer unique perspectives on economic growth theories and their assumptions. Exploring the connection between economic modelling and policymaking, particularly how diverse economic theories are integrated into policymaking, presents another promising avenue. This could involve interviews with experts to understand how models are employed in major policymaking institutions and how a plurality of economic theories can be effectively communicated to the public. By addressing these areas, future research can enhance the robustness and applicability of economic growth models.
Governing Algorithmic Systems in the Social Domain
Providing a socio-technical description of algorithmic systems in the SUWI-domain using Systems Safety and Actor Analyses
It aimed to answer the following research question:
How can a systems safety perspective combined with an actor perspective be used to provide a sociotechnical description of algorithmic systems, their governance and possible hazards at agencies executing the SUWI-law?
By means of the Actor Analysis, this research was able to describe the actor field and implications of it on the problem situation. The main insight from the actor field was the presence of ‘double binds’, several value conflicts that trouble use of AS. STPA, a method that focusses on safety of a system as a whole rather than individual components, provided the ability to map algorithmic systems within their sociotechnical context. It focussed on three hazards, which are system states that lead to accidents. These three hazards were the use of flawed logic in algorithmic systems, the use of flawed information in algorithmic system, and the flawed understanding citizens have of the role of the systems. They were explored through a Safety Control Structure, which displays controlled processes and those controlling them, and the construction of causal scenarios.
Semi-structured interviews focussed on the governance of algorithmic systems, and possible improvements. They provided empirical input for STPA.
The main contributions of this research are the proposal it makes for a sociotechnical description of algorithmic systems and their harms, using concepts derived from STPA. Such descriptions can be used to build shared understanding of algorithmic systems and their harms. It showed how such a description can be constructed using an Actor Analysis, interviews, and STPA, describing how these methods work together.
...
It aimed to answer the following research question:
How can a systems safety perspective combined with an actor perspective be used to provide a sociotechnical description of algorithmic systems, their governance and possible hazards at agencies executing the SUWI-law?
By means of the Actor Analysis, this research was able to describe the actor field and implications of it on the problem situation. The main insight from the actor field was the presence of ‘double binds’, several value conflicts that trouble use of AS. STPA, a method that focusses on safety of a system as a whole rather than individual components, provided the ability to map algorithmic systems within their sociotechnical context. It focussed on three hazards, which are system states that lead to accidents. These three hazards were the use of flawed logic in algorithmic systems, the use of flawed information in algorithmic system, and the flawed understanding citizens have of the role of the systems. They were explored through a Safety Control Structure, which displays controlled processes and those controlling them, and the construction of causal scenarios.
Semi-structured interviews focussed on the governance of algorithmic systems, and possible improvements. They provided empirical input for STPA.
The main contributions of this research are the proposal it makes for a sociotechnical description of algorithmic systems and their harms, using concepts derived from STPA. Such descriptions can be used to build shared understanding of algorithmic systems and their harms. It showed how such a description can be constructed using an Actor Analysis, interviews, and STPA, describing how these methods work together.
Rethinking Commuting: Sustainable Mobility Practices
A stated choice experiment exploring sustainable commuting modalities within the healthcare sector, given non-standard employment schedules
Techno-Optimism and its Impact on Civil Servant Decision Making
A Case Study and Insights into AI Case Routing for Welfare Benefits Allocation
We employed the Design Science Research methodology, utilizing a diverse array of methods including literature reviews, case studies, expert interviews, and system safety analysis. Our objective was to develop a method-type artifact to enhance decision-making in civil services, with a special emphasis on the application of AI in welfare benefits allocation. Our findings indicated that AI implementation in the public sector is highly context-dependent, requiring a tailored approach that addresses various technical, organizational, and cultural barriers.
Throughout our research, we identified critical factors such as the need for transparency, fairness, and accountability in AI systems. We recognized the importance of adopting a balanced perspective that considers both AI and non-AI solutions. Our study highlighted the potential benefits of AI in public services, such as increased efficiency and improved quality of decision-making. However, we also noted significant challenges in ensuring system safety and maintaining ethical standards.
Through expert interviews and a detailed system safety analysis, we emphasized the necessity of establishing clear rules for the responsible use of AI case routing and addressing the associated risks. Our research concluded that AI might not always be the most suitable approach, particularly if safety concerns and ethical considerations outweigh the potential benefits.
In summary, our thesis underscores the need for a critical and balanced approach to the integration of AI in public services. We advocate for a holistic strategy that involves collaboration among government, academia, industry, and civil society. This approach is vital to harness the potential benefits of AI while mitigating risks and ensuring the well-being of society. ...
We employed the Design Science Research methodology, utilizing a diverse array of methods including literature reviews, case studies, expert interviews, and system safety analysis. Our objective was to develop a method-type artifact to enhance decision-making in civil services, with a special emphasis on the application of AI in welfare benefits allocation. Our findings indicated that AI implementation in the public sector is highly context-dependent, requiring a tailored approach that addresses various technical, organizational, and cultural barriers.
Throughout our research, we identified critical factors such as the need for transparency, fairness, and accountability in AI systems. We recognized the importance of adopting a balanced perspective that considers both AI and non-AI solutions. Our study highlighted the potential benefits of AI in public services, such as increased efficiency and improved quality of decision-making. However, we also noted significant challenges in ensuring system safety and maintaining ethical standards.
Through expert interviews and a detailed system safety analysis, we emphasized the necessity of establishing clear rules for the responsible use of AI case routing and addressing the associated risks. Our research concluded that AI might not always be the most suitable approach, particularly if safety concerns and ethical considerations outweigh the potential benefits.
In summary, our thesis underscores the need for a critical and balanced approach to the integration of AI in public services. We advocate for a holistic strategy that involves collaboration among government, academia, industry, and civil society. This approach is vital to harness the potential benefits of AI while mitigating risks and ensuring the well-being of society.
Building a Sustainable Future of Education
An Investigation into the Sustainability of Digital Education Technologies in European Higher Education Institutions
Sustainability assessment can be a useful model to evaluate an institution’s DET selection process as it provides a holistic evaluation through a multidimensional perspective to develop a more responsible and future-proof approach to digital education infrastructure. However, a multidimensional sustainability analysis has not been applied in the context of DET selection. Therefore, it is unclear to decision-makers what sustainable DET looks like and what role sustainability plays in the DET selection process. This study addressed this gap by answering the following question: How are European higher education institutions incorporating sustainability into selecting digital education technologies?
The sustainability dimensions of DETs were formulated by conducting a literature review of contemporary models, encompassing the environmental, social, and technological aspects. A more sustainable DET increases the positive impact along each of these dimensions. An environmentally sustain- able DET preserves and protects natural resources by reducing the environmental impact through its hardware and software. A socially sustainable DET increases equal access to education for all learners, regardless of socioeconomic status, disabilities, or geographic location while preserving individual privacy. A technologically sustainable DET is long-lasting, possesses the necessary functionalities, and balances a tool’s simplicity, openness, and ownership. While most sustainability models include the economic dimension, due to the university’s non-profit nature and the common prioritization of economic factors above other criteria in decision-making, this study excluded the economic dimension to examine the other dimensions more closely. Furthermore, the pedagogical dimension was omitted due to its sustainability considerations typically arising after the implementation of a DET, rather than during its selection stage and therefore is beyond the scope of this research.
Four key actors involved in the DET selection process were identified through an actor analysis. These include the university’s Head of IT who oversees the institution’s infrastructure system and their IT tool specialists who provide technical expertise, service providers whose products comprise the DET market, and education associations who help universities procure DETs. Ten semi-structured interviews were conducted with European university Heads of IT to gather data on the current DET selection process and the challenges institutions face when incorporating sustainability into DET selection.
The sustainability dimensions were used in conjunction with grounded theory open and axial coding analysis to evaluate the sustainability of current DET selection processes. The results showed that decision-makers predominantly utilize the EU-regulated tendering process to select DETs, which comprises minimal sustainability criteria while assigning significant importance to the economic factor (i.e., DET price). Additionally, interviewees shared they prioritize social and technological sustainability, specifically the privacy, data security, and functionality of DETs over other sustainability criteria. On the other hand, environmental sustainability is underrepresented in DET selection criteria. This is primarily due to the lack of available data and initiatives collecting DET environmental impact metrics, making it difficult for decision-makers to create relevant requirements and kickout criteria to compare DET options based on environmental sustainability. Finally, the analysis illustrated the three most common challenges that hinder sustainable DET selection are the limited financial and human resources, the insignificant or lack of sustainability criterion weighting, and the long and inflexible tender process.
Overall, this study contributes to filling the knowledge gap in understanding the sustainability of current European universities’ DET selection process and highlights key challenges decision-makers and researchers should focus on to improve the sustainability of digital education technologies. Future research can build on this work by expanding the scope beyond Northwestern European institutions, interviewing other decision-maker actors, and developing a standardized selection process for sustainable DET selection.
Additionally, recommendations were made to the four actor groups as well as general advice for universities to increase DET sustainability. The Head of IT should prioritize the environmental aspect in DET criteria and collaborate with service providers to address environmental impact metrics. They should also encourage the development of new tools by teachers and students. The IT tool specialist should engage in co-development with service providers for better tool support and to ensure a secure and functional digital infrastructure. Service providers need to align their products with sustainability criteria, propose pilot projects to universities, and share environmental impact metrics with relevant stakeholders. Education associations should organize collective efforts to enhance the sustainability of the DET tendering process and offer streamlined services like joint procurement and model contracts to simplify the selection process. Universities could transition to renewable energy to reduce DET’s carbon footprint, implement e-waste recycling and disposal programs, and support research into sustainable DET. ...
Sustainability assessment can be a useful model to evaluate an institution’s DET selection process as it provides a holistic evaluation through a multidimensional perspective to develop a more responsible and future-proof approach to digital education infrastructure. However, a multidimensional sustainability analysis has not been applied in the context of DET selection. Therefore, it is unclear to decision-makers what sustainable DET looks like and what role sustainability plays in the DET selection process. This study addressed this gap by answering the following question: How are European higher education institutions incorporating sustainability into selecting digital education technologies?
The sustainability dimensions of DETs were formulated by conducting a literature review of contemporary models, encompassing the environmental, social, and technological aspects. A more sustainable DET increases the positive impact along each of these dimensions. An environmentally sustain- able DET preserves and protects natural resources by reducing the environmental impact through its hardware and software. A socially sustainable DET increases equal access to education for all learners, regardless of socioeconomic status, disabilities, or geographic location while preserving individual privacy. A technologically sustainable DET is long-lasting, possesses the necessary functionalities, and balances a tool’s simplicity, openness, and ownership. While most sustainability models include the economic dimension, due to the university’s non-profit nature and the common prioritization of economic factors above other criteria in decision-making, this study excluded the economic dimension to examine the other dimensions more closely. Furthermore, the pedagogical dimension was omitted due to its sustainability considerations typically arising after the implementation of a DET, rather than during its selection stage and therefore is beyond the scope of this research.
Four key actors involved in the DET selection process were identified through an actor analysis. These include the university’s Head of IT who oversees the institution’s infrastructure system and their IT tool specialists who provide technical expertise, service providers whose products comprise the DET market, and education associations who help universities procure DETs. Ten semi-structured interviews were conducted with European university Heads of IT to gather data on the current DET selection process and the challenges institutions face when incorporating sustainability into DET selection.
The sustainability dimensions were used in conjunction with grounded theory open and axial coding analysis to evaluate the sustainability of current DET selection processes. The results showed that decision-makers predominantly utilize the EU-regulated tendering process to select DETs, which comprises minimal sustainability criteria while assigning significant importance to the economic factor (i.e., DET price). Additionally, interviewees shared they prioritize social and technological sustainability, specifically the privacy, data security, and functionality of DETs over other sustainability criteria. On the other hand, environmental sustainability is underrepresented in DET selection criteria. This is primarily due to the lack of available data and initiatives collecting DET environmental impact metrics, making it difficult for decision-makers to create relevant requirements and kickout criteria to compare DET options based on environmental sustainability. Finally, the analysis illustrated the three most common challenges that hinder sustainable DET selection are the limited financial and human resources, the insignificant or lack of sustainability criterion weighting, and the long and inflexible tender process.
Overall, this study contributes to filling the knowledge gap in understanding the sustainability of current European universities’ DET selection process and highlights key challenges decision-makers and researchers should focus on to improve the sustainability of digital education technologies. Future research can build on this work by expanding the scope beyond Northwestern European institutions, interviewing other decision-maker actors, and developing a standardized selection process for sustainable DET selection.
Additionally, recommendations were made to the four actor groups as well as general advice for universities to increase DET sustainability. The Head of IT should prioritize the environmental aspect in DET criteria and collaborate with service providers to address environmental impact metrics. They should also encourage the development of new tools by teachers and students. The IT tool specialist should engage in co-development with service providers for better tool support and to ensure a secure and functional digital infrastructure. Service providers need to align their products with sustainability criteria, propose pilot projects to universities, and share environmental impact metrics with relevant stakeholders. Education associations should organize collective efforts to enhance the sustainability of the DET tendering process and offer streamlined services like joint procurement and model contracts to simplify the selection process. Universities could transition to renewable energy to reduce DET’s carbon footprint, implement e-waste recycling and disposal programs, and support research into sustainable DET.
Breaking the mold of participation
A case study on the influence of Participatory Value Evaluation on strategic formation processes within higher education institutions
This thesis proposes a model to illustrate the factors that influence the decision to enter the market. Aspects that influence the formulation of a market entry strategy are included in the model. For the sake of simplicity, only the strategy to enter a market has been investigated. Next to the model, we created a flowchart that describes the steps required to develop a market entry strategy. Eventually the goal is to make a well-thought decision. The dialogue of the deaf on first, second or late being most favourable has been the cause of this thesis but the conclusion is none of those. The most important part of first-mover advantages and disadvantages is the effect they bring along with the entry into a market. This thesis claims that first-mover advantages are advantages and disadvantages that may be evaluated over the development of a product category, rather than belonging to any particular order. The weights of (dis)advantages differ over the course of the development so at different points in time, different advantages can be utilised. The first-mover (dis)advantages present aspects that can be utilised at a particular situation. The decision maker should foresee whether, given the current (dis)advantages, after its introduction the situation is most favourable or if the situation is most favourable when you wait, and competitors have entered the market. The combination of the pattern of development and first-mover advantages show this principle and show why the dialogue of the deaf on market order is not useful. The decision to enter a market has never been simple, and it likely never will be. This thesis offers direction for the decision-making procedure and explains how to comprehend it. The complexities of market entry decision making are not yet resolved, but a well-thought decision is getting closer. ...
This thesis proposes a model to illustrate the factors that influence the decision to enter the market. Aspects that influence the formulation of a market entry strategy are included in the model. For the sake of simplicity, only the strategy to enter a market has been investigated. Next to the model, we created a flowchart that describes the steps required to develop a market entry strategy. Eventually the goal is to make a well-thought decision. The dialogue of the deaf on first, second or late being most favourable has been the cause of this thesis but the conclusion is none of those. The most important part of first-mover advantages and disadvantages is the effect they bring along with the entry into a market. This thesis claims that first-mover advantages are advantages and disadvantages that may be evaluated over the development of a product category, rather than belonging to any particular order. The weights of (dis)advantages differ over the course of the development so at different points in time, different advantages can be utilised. The first-mover (dis)advantages present aspects that can be utilised at a particular situation. The decision maker should foresee whether, given the current (dis)advantages, after its introduction the situation is most favourable or if the situation is most favourable when you wait, and competitors have entered the market. The combination of the pattern of development and first-mover advantages show this principle and show why the dialogue of the deaf on market order is not useful. The decision to enter a market has never been simple, and it likely never will be. This thesis offers direction for the decision-making procedure and explains how to comprehend it. The complexities of market entry decision making are not yet resolved, but a well-thought decision is getting closer.
Urban Voices
Citizen Voice: An innovative Open-source Map-based tool for effective public participation
While many methods and tools have been developed over the years, for enhancing citizen engagement and the effectiveness of public participation, there seems to be an evident gap in substantial and two-way collaboration among the (relevant) urban stakeholders. This thesis project aims to hark the perspectives and needs of the urban stakeholders, translating them into a conceptual design of a digital public participation platform. Next to that, except for the importance of the platform itself, as a tool, the focus was also given to participation, as a process, considering that such a platform could and should act as a promoter of effective public participation rather than a stand-alone solution. Consequently, the main research question of this study is: Which characteristics need to be included in designing a public participation platform so that it can enhance citizen engagement and facilitate more effective public participation in urban planning?
For this research, a design science research approach was chosen. A theoretical background was developed on existing theories, methods and frameworks related to public participation and digital platforms. Data collection was conducted using multiple methods, including workshops, semi-structured interviews, and questionnaires, while data analysis was conducted inductively, to identify all the emerging patterns and their interrelations.
From the data analysis, five core themes emerged: General findings; (De)Motivational factors for public participation; Characteristics; Technical requirements; Technological features. Retaining these themes, the analyzed results were then critically synthesized, both in qualitative and quantitative terms, to provide a holistic overview.
Combing the obtained results, the main research outputs were developed, providing an overall answer to the main research question. First, a trifold validation of the results, related to the past, present, and future, was conducted, fulfilling the rigor and design cycle of the design science research, and attaining a continuous assessment. Building upon the evaluation results, for the platform as a tool, a conceptual design was developed, based on the different views of the urban stakeholders. For the process of public participation in general, a set of guidelines was developed, providing recommendations on how to enhance citizen engagement and the effectiveness of public participation, based on the different views of the urban stakeholders.
This thesis concludes with some important final remarks, including limitations, recommendations for future research, research relevance, and the author’s final reflections on the research.
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While many methods and tools have been developed over the years, for enhancing citizen engagement and the effectiveness of public participation, there seems to be an evident gap in substantial and two-way collaboration among the (relevant) urban stakeholders. This thesis project aims to hark the perspectives and needs of the urban stakeholders, translating them into a conceptual design of a digital public participation platform. Next to that, except for the importance of the platform itself, as a tool, the focus was also given to participation, as a process, considering that such a platform could and should act as a promoter of effective public participation rather than a stand-alone solution. Consequently, the main research question of this study is: Which characteristics need to be included in designing a public participation platform so that it can enhance citizen engagement and facilitate more effective public participation in urban planning?
For this research, a design science research approach was chosen. A theoretical background was developed on existing theories, methods and frameworks related to public participation and digital platforms. Data collection was conducted using multiple methods, including workshops, semi-structured interviews, and questionnaires, while data analysis was conducted inductively, to identify all the emerging patterns and their interrelations.
From the data analysis, five core themes emerged: General findings; (De)Motivational factors for public participation; Characteristics; Technical requirements; Technological features. Retaining these themes, the analyzed results were then critically synthesized, both in qualitative and quantitative terms, to provide a holistic overview.
Combing the obtained results, the main research outputs were developed, providing an overall answer to the main research question. First, a trifold validation of the results, related to the past, present, and future, was conducted, fulfilling the rigor and design cycle of the design science research, and attaining a continuous assessment. Building upon the evaluation results, for the platform as a tool, a conceptual design was developed, based on the different views of the urban stakeholders. For the process of public participation in general, a set of guidelines was developed, providing recommendations on how to enhance citizen engagement and the effectiveness of public participation, based on the different views of the urban stakeholders.
This thesis concludes with some important final remarks, including limitations, recommendations for future research, research relevance, and the author’s final reflections on the research.