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I.R. van de Poel

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Doctoral thesis (2026) - S. Marchiori, I.R. van de Poel, M.B.O.T. Klenk
While a rich scholarship has examined how technology impacts our practices, norms, values, and beliefs, considerably less explicit attention has been devoted to investigating how technology impacts our concepts, i.e., the notions through which we understand, reason about, and navigate our world. For example, the emergence of autonomous weapons systems has put pressure on the concept CONTROL adopted in international humanitarian law, which proved inadequate in establishing clear lines of responsibility for uses of force in contexts in which control over weapons was no longer exercised directly by a human agent, but distributed among human and non-human entities. Similarly, the advent of autonomous vehicles has raised pressing questions about (among others) liability regimes, safety standards, and the differential impact of this technology across different social groups. Many of such questions are tied to the concepts that underlie them. This dissertation investigates how to navigate technology-induced conceptual disruption (i.e., the interruption in the functional adequacy of concepts) with conceptual engineering (i.e., the evaluation, design, and implementation of concepts). The dissertation is a sustained illustration of the claim that conceptual engineering and the philosophy of technology—two disciplines which have so far proceeded on largely parallel tracks despite engaging with related problems, operating on similarly conceived objects of inquiry, and sharing broadly comparable normative aims—are better positioned to address their respective research in dialogue rather than in isolation. This has led to contributions to both conceptual engineering—illustrating how insights and tools developed for the study of socio-technical artefacts can enrich the theoretical foundations and operationalisation of conceptual engineering—and the philosophy of technology—showing how the vocabulary of conceptual engineering can equip philosophers of technology with sharper tools for identifying, evaluating, and responding to conceptual disruptions. ...
Doctoral thesis (2026) - J. Alleblas, I.R. van de Poel, B. Taebi
This dissertation investigated how sociotechnical visions—defined as discursively articulated images of desirable futures—shape the development, design, and evaluation of sociotechnical systems through the moral objectives they contain. It focuses in particular on the roles of values and ideals in these visions, and on how such moralized visions interact with technological design, feasibility constraints, and processes of value change over time.

This dissertation sets out with the claim that contemporary societies face systemic crises—such as climate change, energy insecurity, and urban sustainability issues—that call for long-term direction rather than incremental problem-solving. Governments, engineers, and designers can use visions of desirable futures to guide sociotechnical change. These visions typically combine normative claims about what constitutes a good society with assumptions about which technologies and systems are necessary to realize that future. Despite their prominence, however, it remains insufficiently understood how the moral content of visions—especially abstract values and seemingly infeasible ideals—actually influences technological design and system development..... ...

An interdisciplinary exploration of philosophical issues

Doctoral thesis (2026) - A. Melnyk, I.R. van de Poel, N. Doorn, Amineh Ghorbani
This dissertation examines how values change in the context of climate change and energy transitions. It departs from the observation that energy transitions are not only technological or economic transformations, but also moral and political processes in which values are continuously interplay. While values are frequently invoked in debates on sustainability, they are often treated as fixed or external to socio-technical change. This dissertation instead approaches value change as a dynamic, relational phenomenon that emerges through interactions between people, technologies, institutions, and the environment. The central aim is to develop a philosophically grounded account of value change that captures its multilevel and context-dependent character, while also demonstrating how such change can be studied philosophically, empirically, and computationally. To do so, the dissertation combines philosophical analysis with insights from social science and computational modelling across a set of interconnected studies.

Part I investigates the role of values in energy transitions, focusing on community energy initiatives. Drawing on community energy scholarship and empirical materials, it shows that value change can take multiple forms: as a bottom-up process emerging from resistance to incumbent systems, as a policy objective embedded in governance frameworks, and as an outcome of socio-technical and ecological interactions. A key insight is that values are plural and relational, meaning that ethical dilemmas arise not only between competing values but also within them, shaped by specific institutional, technological, and local contexts.

Part II develops a philosophical account of value change in dialogue with climate ethics and the philosophy of technology. Engaging with philosophical perspectives on value conflict, it challenges the view that value change necessarily leads to irresolvable tensions. Instead, it proposes an interpretive account in which values are continuously redefined in response to new moral challenges. Within this framework, moral expansion is introduced as one mechanism of value change, understood as the extension of moral concern to new domains, including future generations, non-human entities, and the environment. This process is neither linear nor inevitable, but contingent, uneven, and shaped by technological, environmental, material, and institutional conditions.

Part III turns to methodology, exploring how value change can be studied using computational social science, in particular, agent-based modelling. Here, models are treated as exploratory instruments that make assumptions about values explicit and allow the implications of different value configurations to be examined across multiple levels of analysis. Through an explorative model of moral expansion, the dissertation demonstrates how computational approaches can complement philosophical inquiry by enabling systematic reflection on dynamic moral processes.

The dissertation makes three main contributions. First, it conceptualises value change as a relational and multilevel process embedded in socio-technical and environmental systems. Second, it develops an interpretive account of value change that moves beyond views of value conflict as inherently irreconcilable. Drawing on and critically engaging with pluralist and interpretivist traditions, in particular the work of Ronald Dworkin and Isaiah Berlin, it shows how values are not only in tension but also subject to reinterpretation over time. This account provides an approach to understanding ethical dilemmas in energy transitions as evolving, situated processes shaped by institutional, technological, environmental, and material conditions, rather than as fixed or intractable conflicts. Third, it advances a methodological approach for studying value change by integrating philosophical analysis with computational social science. In particular, it introduces moral expansion as a mechanism for understanding how values evolve in response to new challenges and demonstrates how agent-based models can serve as exploratory tools to make value assumptions explicit and examine their implications across levels of analysis, thereby enabling systematic reflection on dynamic moral processes. ...
Master thesis (2025) - S. Anushkumar, N. Goyal, I.R. van de Poel
Energy security and self-sufficiency have always been global concerns, but their urgency has intensified since the Russia–Ukraine war. This geopolitical disruption accelerated the pursuit of sustainable alternatives, positioning green hydrogen as a leading candidate to replace fossil fuels. Labeled “green” because it is produced through water electrolysis without carbon emissions, green hydrogen began gaining international momentum around 2020–2021, especially in the United States, Australia, and China, and by 2023 several developing economies, including India, Saudi Arabia, and parts of Africa, had also entered the field.

Yet, the large-scale transition to green hydrogen depends not only on technological advances but also on robust policies that shape decision-making and create enabling environments. Policies, as structured sets of instruments and actions, are essential to guide such transitions. This raises a central question: to what extent are policy adoptions influenced by technological developments in green hydrogen? Previous research has mainly focused on other sectors such as photovoltaics or e-mobility and largely examined developed economies like Germany and the UK. In contrast, this study seeks to fill the gap by examining how technology dynamics have influenced the adoption of green hydrogen production policies in India between 2020 and 2024.

The research concentrates on production technologies, since they form the basis of the hydrogen value chain and without them downstream applications cannot emerge. The chosen timeframe reflects the post-COVID-19 surge in global interest and the geopolitical pressures of the Russia–Ukraine war. The literature review revealed, however, that the concept of technology dynamics—which refers to patterns of change in innovation, maturity, cost evolution, industrial diffusion, and scaling—remains insufficiently explored in relation to green hydrogen.

The study found that electrolysers continued to dominate the global market, though since 2022 alternative approaches, such as seawater and wastewater electrolysis and the integration of digital technologies into production, have advanced. Geographically, manufacturing has been concentrated in China and Europe, while alkaline electrolysers have emerged as the most cost-effective option. In parallel, India’s policy measures revealed a progression: initially focusing on enabling frameworks, then shifting toward actively supporting electrolyser technologies, and later moving toward more technology-neutral approaches that also encouraged biomass-based hydrogen production. Innovations such as seawater electrolysis and automation were specifically backed by R&D incentives and international collaborations.

An additional strand of the research examined over two thousand newspaper articles to trace stakeholder involvement. The findings suggest that each new policy measure generated feedback from stakeholders, often highlighting concerns about cost, feasibility, and contextual relevance. This feedback sometimes influenced adjustments, reflecting mechanisms described in the literature such as advocacy coalitions, policy iteration, and compulsive policymaking. While these patterns suggest a connection between technological developments and policy design, the reliance on secondary data limited the ability to draw firm causal conclusions, pointing to the need for future research using interviews and other primary sources.

Overall, the study provides valuable insights for policymakers, industry actors, and civil society. It underscores that the success of green hydrogen in India, and in similar developing contexts, relies on the interaction between advancing technologies and responsive policy frameworks. Moreover, it highlights the importance of stakeholder feedback in shaping sustainability transitions and argues that this influence could be enhanced by creating more structured channels of participation and collaborative forums for decision-making. ...
This thesis examines the interactions within standard-setting consortia within the Audio/ Video/Multimedia sector, focusing on large company dominance, geographical proximity, and technological proximity. It aims to uncover how these factors individually and collectively influence the success of these consortia. The guiding research question is:
“What combinations of large company dominance, geographic proximity, and technological proximity lead to successful outcomes in standard-setting consortia?”
Using Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA), the study reveals that successful consortia strike a balance in large company influence, maintain significant geographical proximity, and ensure proper technological alignment. While large company dominance significantly impacts consortium success, an optimal balance is essential to avoid power struggles and foster effective collaboration. Geographical proximity, especially at the UN subregion level, consistently contributes to success by enhancing trust and communication. Technological proximity within industry groups is beneficial but must be complemented by other factors to significantly impact outcomes. It’s clear that the success of consortia is best understood through specific configurations of these variables rather than any single factor alone. To evaluate consortium success, the study employs a multifactor framework focusing on the creation of standards, their adoption, and scholarly recognition. This framework combines qualitative and quantitative measures, providing a comprehensive assessment of consortium performance. The research makes a valuable contribution to the field by offering empirical evidence on the strategic influence of large companies within standard-setting consortia. It extends the understanding of how large firms drive innovation while balancing the contributions of smaller participants. The study also offers nuanced insights into the roles of geographical and technological proximities, emphasizing their combined effects on consortium success. These findings are useful for both theoretical knowledge and practical applications, informing technology management practices and shaping policies that support effective standard-setting efforts. From a Management of Technology perspective, this thesis demonstrates how strategic engagement in standard-setting consortia can enhance a firm’s technological capabilities and market positioning. Technology managers can leverage these insights to navigate standardsetting processes more effectively, ensuring that their firms benefit from collaboration while maintaining an optimal balance of influence. However, this study acknowledges certain practical limitations. The findings, while insightful for the Audio/Video/Multimedia sector, may need adaptation when applied to other industries with different dynamics. Additionally, the reliance on publicly available data from consortium websites and LinkedIn profiles may lead to practical challenges, such as gaps or inconsistencies in the data, affecting decision-making. The study’s cross-sectional approach provides a snapshot of current conditions but does not capture consortium dynamics over time. Practitioners should consider these factors when applying the insights to other contexts, and future research should aim to include a wider range of industries and explore these dynamics longitudinally to inform more adaptive strategies.
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Ethical Reflections On Risk & Uncertainty In Solar Climate Engineering Research

Doctoral thesis (2024) - B. Hofbauer, B. Taebi, I.R. van de Poel, U. Pesch
This thesis explores the ethical challenges that a potential research program for solar climate engineering via Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) could incur. These ethical challenges are comprised of epistemic hurdles in relation to the research process, as well as societal questions of justice and the value of nature. The thesis proposes a variety of tools and approaches to assess and possibly govern the risks and uncertainties invoked by the research of SAI and its societal implications. The methodological approach is based mainly on ethical and philosophical analysis and reflection and the main findings take the form of discursive argumentation and normative reflection.

SAI is a form of climate engineering that seeks to reduce global warming by increasing the planet’s reflection levels through the injection of reflective agents (aerosols) into the stratosphere. The mere potential of researching a technology that would actively intervene in the global climate is highly contentious and has led to passionate debates throughout the expert community. Designing a research process for such a polarizing technology such as SAI inevitably raises fundamental moral questions, wherein issues of global justice, democracy, the value of and humanity’s relationship with nature, and the societal impacts of technological innovation all intersect. Given these far-reaching consequences, the thesis operates under the assumption that SAI is a highly disruptive idea and technology, that has the potential to challenge and undermine existing societal values and institutions. Accordingly, this work presents a range of philosophical modes of inquiry and assessments, in order to supply any proposed SAI research governance program with the necessary ethical considerations and frameworks.

The thesis is structured along four major inflection points, which form the individual chapters tied together through differing but interrelated research questions. What follows is an overview of the research questions, along with a brief description of how those questions were answered…
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Master thesis (2023) - R. Zheng, Z. Roosenboom-Kwee, I.R. van de Poel
This article explores the implementation of the Responsible Research and Innovation (RRI) framework among small and medium-sized healthcare companies in China. The RRI framework has been widely discussed in Europe and the US but is still in the early stages of diffusion in emerging countries and economies. The lack of institutional support and enabling conditions in these countries make it difficult for SMEs to fulfill their mission of socially responsible innovation. Based on a single case study at Gaush Teleon, the article identifies 24 factors for implementing RRI in Chinese SMEs. It develops questionnaires to understand the diffusion of the RRI concept and the ranking of the influencing factors. The results of the data analysis show that policy factors are considered to be the most important influencing factor on the adoption of the RRI framework by Chinese SMEs, followed by organizational and financial factors. The study suggests that examining the alignment of Chinese society with RRI and exploring the feasibility of developing the RRI concept in China can help developing countries assess how emerging technologies and society can evolve together. ...
The current regulatory regime regarding GMOs within the Netherlands and Europe does ensure safety but struggles in balancing this notion with innovation. In particular, the way the Precautionary Principle (PP) is operationalized in GMO legislation has resulted in a highly precautionary culture in which there is little room to conduct research with associated uncertain risks or uncertainties – it has resulted in a culture of compliance. Although the debate on how ‘new’ genetic engineering techniques such as CRISPR should be assessed in comparison to recently exempted techniques is ongoing within the European Union (EU), this might not have any consequences for GMO regulation at all. These issues do not only stifle innovation but also illustrate that the current regime is not resilient in dealing with emerging techniques. To break free from the impasse between safety and innovation, researchers should be able to learn what uncertain risks entail, for instance, through Safe-by-Design (SbD).
The main question addressed in this thesis is: “How to create an environment that is suitable to learn safely and responsibly what uncertain risks associated with emerging biotechnologies entail?”. I conclude that to enable responsible learning by means of SbD, 3 conditions are needed; regulatory flexibility, co-responsibility and awareness. Thereby, SbD could be a suitable approach to arrive at responsible learning, given that the 3 conditions are met. If not, SbD provides guidelines to lower or mitigate known risks but fails to provide a step-by-step approach to gradually learn what uncertain risks entail. This will leave a knowledge gap between known and uncertain risks which stifles innovation and hinders risk management in ensuring future safety for people, animals and the environment.
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An exploratory study into human moral autonomy of Behavioural Artificial Intelligence Technology

Master thesis (2021) - C.E. Yildiz, I.R. van de Poel, L.J. Kortmann, C.G. Chorus
The accelerating development of algorithms causes a disruptive effect in many domains, including the complex decision-making of knowledge workers. Experts can manage difficult but repetitive decisions with software technologies like a Decision Support System (DSS). A DSS is used to monitor decisions, get additional insights and improve decisions over time. Their supportive performance characterises these systems to assist human decision-makers. To answer to the pressing demand for transparency in DSSs, Councyl developed Behavioural Artificial Intelligence Tenchnology (BAIT). BAIT is a DSS that adequately supports experts with making decisions. However, algorithms like BAIT may affect the autonomy of experts and their decisions in numerous ways. This thesis studies human moral autonomy (HMA) of end-users in the context of BAIT. We do this by measuring perceptions of end-users. The product arising from this study is the HMA Survey. ...
The municipality of Amsterdam plans to transition away from its reliance on fossil fuel-based energy sources for residential heating by 2040. The municipality has laid out a roadmap that details possibilities for sustainable heating on a per-neighborhood basis. One neighborhood of particular interest is Geerdinkhof in Amsterdam South East. There are three long-term sustainable transitions that can take place within Geerdinkhof; a high temperature (HT) district heating network, collectively-owned options and heating options per individual household. The present research refers to citizen social acceptance of these long-term transitions for sustainable heating. It would be ideal to address the possible lack of social acceptance for a new technology before it is implemented. It is argued that social acceptance issues can best be anticipated by understanding the underlying value conflicts associated with technologies. However, literature indicates that very few tools have been implemented for ex-ante analysis of social acceptance. It is argued that the consequences of value conflicts on a future lack of social acceptance can be anticipated by identifying scenarios of value change. In order to best balance the need for both quantitative and qualitative scenario analysis, Cross-Impact Balances (CIB) was chosen as the methodology execute this thesis. This method that can construct qualitative and semi-quantitative scenarios systematically. The values observed in this thesis regard affordability and comfort, which are at the forefront of the transition for citizens in Geerdinkhof. The analysis produced a total of 23 internally consistent scenarios of value change. This thesis defines “internally consistent” scenarios of value change as a reflection of how the prioritization of values shift over time, considering the mathematically plausible combinations of CIB calculations. Considering the heavy work-load to analyze each scenario individually, the scenarios were clustered into seven broad scenario clusters based on how these values may trend. Sensitivity analysis indicated that there is no extreme divergence in the number of consistent scenarios discovered. For each scenario cluster, the most fitting of the three possible heating initiatives in Geerdinkhof were assessed. Moreover, analysis indicated that a HT district heating network was the most fitting heating initiative as a result of the most commonly found scenario. However, it cannot be conclusively stated that this initiative is the most suitable for Geerdinkhof, given that the least commonly found scenario also suits HT district heating. Recommendations can be provided on the best possible procedure that the municipality can take in order to facilitate more socially accepted heating initiatives. Ex-ante assessment of social acceptance is dependent on observing possible trends in neighborhood and external factors. It is recommended that the municipality assess the current trends in these factors, and compare them to the findings in the present research. It is important to note that citizens would also need to demonstrate the need for sustainable initiatives. Another recommendation would be for the municipality to continue to emphasize the importance and urgency of the impending transition, for example through information campaigns or neighborhood gatherings. ...

An Agent Based Modelling approach to illustrate the decision-making behavior of citizens regarding their electricity supply

Master thesis (2021) - B. de Bruin, A. Ghorbani, T. Hoppe, I.R. van de Poel, A. Melnyk
The accessibility and affordability of small scale renewable energy sources cause a shift towards an decentralized energy system with distributed electricity generation. Together with the increased attention to responsible innovation, the polycentric development of multiple governing authorities gives room for social innovation. This empowers citizens to become prosumers via Local Renewable Energy Communities (LREOs). Despite the trend towards more polycentricity, the mismatch between the existing regulations and rules - with focus on system efficiency, reliability and affordability – and the growing attention to new sustainability related concerns of social equality, environmental well-being and energy autarky is seen as the cause for the emergence of LREOs. This manuscript explores how these new sustainability related concerns, evoked by climate events, influences the value systems of citizens and subsequently lead to the emergence of LREOs. By using agent based modelling approach, this research incorporates multiple scales of analysis, diverse agent configuration and focus on the emergence of structures at the societal level from individual actions.

The constructed agent based model uses an illustrative approach to showcase how the impact of disruptive climate events changes the value systems of citizens. Over the course of the simulation the citizens take part in the three core mechanisms of the model. First citizens slowly become responsible citizen by recognizing the sustainability related concerns evoked due to climatic disrupting events. Second, due to social learning and the recognition of the sustainability related concerns, citizens change their value prioritization. Third, citizens decide, based on their responsibility, value prioritization (motives) and leadership capacities, to adjust their energy provision by choosing between i) Fossil fuel market (market entity that supplies fossil fuel generated electricity), ii) Sustainable market (market entity that supplies sustainable generated electricity), iii) individual pv-owner (citizens buy solar pv panels for individual use), and iv) joining/initiating an LREO. In this thesis I will show that in each of these core mechanisms, values and value change play a dominant role. The experiments show that during the process of recognizing the sustainability related concerns, citizens from the value orientation Growth and Personal-Focus mainly struggle to acknowledge their own contribution to the problem of climate change, while citizens from the Social-Focus and Self-Protection-Focus population scenarios tend to stagnate because of disbelieve in the impact of individual actions. For the second mechanism, change in value prioritization, the analysis have shown that within the Mixed population scenario, the social pressure of friends hinder citizens to ascribe more priority to sustainable related values. Interestingly, within populations with a homogeneous value prioritization the combination of social learning and the completion of the responsibility-cycle led to the increased prioritization of the sustainability related values of universalism and benevolence. These so-called divergent patterns of change in value prioritization is more often observed among social networks with citizens who were social competent and receptive to new opinions (Growth and Personal-Focusvalue orientations).For the third mechanism, the emergence of LREOs, the experiments demonstrate that only within the population scenarios with the Growth and Mixed value orientations the emergence of LREOs was visible. This was due to the fact that only within these two scenarios, populations contained a large group of citizens i) who recognized the concerns of sustainability, ii) who were community-oriented, iii) who were willing to act, iv) whom of which a small group was capable to lead, and v) who jointly agreed on the organisational form and technology in-use. The experiments have shown a big diversity in the agency, goals and preferences between different population-scenarios. This research made a methodological contribution by introducing the new concept of perception thermometers to study the impact of value-weighted experiences, events and information on the value prioritization system of citizens. Next to the perception thermometers, the scientific contribution of this research study showcases how to integrate new values (e.g. energy justice) within the existing Value Circumplex of Schwartz by considering it as a change in value specification. Moreover, this research used a holistic approach of analysing the emergence of LREOs as it combines external factors (e.g. consistent energy policies) with social factors (e.g. disagreements during board meetings due to the different motives of individuals) and individual characteristics (e.g. responsibility, motives, leadership capacities). Applying this multiple perspective of studying the emergence of LREOs in practise, creates a better understanding why LREOs emerge and how to stimulate/facilitate their founding process. These insights allow a more in-depth understanding of the emergence LREOs and can equip relevant researchers and practitioners with fruitful knowledge. ...

An Agent-Based Exploratory Modelling Approach to Study the Change in Importance of Values

Master thesis (2021) - Syed Mujtaba Fardeen, I.R. van de Poel, J.H. Kwakkel, T.E. de Wildt, Yvo Hunink
The climate change around the globe driven by Greenhouse Gas emissions (GHG) is fueling the growth of Sustainable Energy Systems (SES) at a faster pace. However, the lack of acceptance of these systems by society has stifled its successful deployment. Societal values play a key role in evaluating the social acceptance and the broader consequences of SES. However, there exists a complexity of change in the values of people. Alternatively known as value change, although SES may embody values permanently during its design, the values that people hold important may change during the lifetime of SES. Value change may often be driven by various exogenous factors as well as due to the complex, emergent, and dynamic characteristics of SES. Consequently, this has led to high uncertainty in the future acceptance of SES. Exploring the uncertain scenarios of value change is crucial for social acceptance of SES as it can facilitate better consideration of values in evaluating social acceptance of SES, ultimately contributing to the future acceptability of SES by society. However, current approaches to explore value change in ethics of technology literature are scarce. Few have proposed to explore value change, but lack in dealing with value change after it has occurred, or they consider values in a static manner. Alternatively, simulation models show better prospects in exploring complex societal dynamics of which a human mind cannot picture. Simulation models such as Agent-Based Models are seen as a suitable solution to capture the underlying mechanisms that drive the value change considering the complex and dynamic characteristics of SES. The objective of this research is to gain an understanding of the mechanisms that drive the value change in SES, by formulating a modelling approach that integrates agent heterogeneity, common pool resource & dynamic behavior, transformative experience & bounded rationality, and social interaction, to explore value change under various policy and uncertainty scenarios of SES. To this end, this study combined Agent-Based Modelling and Exploratory Modelling approaches to explore the change in importance of values in SES. ...

Using value conflicts in an agent-based model

Master thesis (2021) - J.L. van Liefland, I.R. van de Poel, N. Mouter, T.E. de Wildt, E. Veldman
The municipality of Amsterdam is currently in the middle of a heat transition. The municipalit aims to cut down the use of natural gas for space heating in order to reduce its impact on the natural environment. For the Geerdinkhof neighborhood in Amsterdam South-East, the municipality is planning to implement a district heating system. These systems make use of a collective heat source and rely on underground isolated pipelines to deliver the heat to the end-user. These systems are a significant investment in infrastructure and require adjustments to households before they are suitable for this type of system. A heat transition like the one in Geerdinkhof is a significant challenge, as the heating alternatives that are considered are sometimes met with some resistance from households. Households might not always want to switch to a heating alternative for a variety of reasons. The heat transition therefore becomes a question of social acceptance: are households going to make use of this new system or will they resist the implementation? This master thesis is an exploratory study into reasons for social non-acceptance of a new residential heating system in Geerdinkhof, Amsterdam. Given the long life-time of energy systems and large investments necessary, the municipality of Amsterdam is interested in identifying reasons households might not accept a new heating technology. This thesis makes use of the theory on human values, value change and value conflicts to evaluate how households are affected by a heating alternative in their value fulfillment. In order to simulate the effects different configurations of heating alternatives can have on the human values of households, an agent-based model is constructed. This model is used to anticipate possible value conflicts households could experience in a transition to a new residential heating system. Three recommendations are made to the municipality of Amsterdam in support of social acceptance of a new heating alternative in Geerdinkhof: increase the affordability of the system through subsidies, prioritize household insulation for increased thermal comfort and answer to the Geerdinkhof neighborhood characteristics. The households in this neighborhood might require higher levels of participation, ownership and overall inclusion before they are to socially accept the heating alternative. ...

Case study of product and service-based teams from semi-conductor industry

Diversity as a topic is increasingly becoming important aspect of organizations and society in general. Team diversity could bring different perspectives and thus diverse teams could reap the benefits such as better performance, innovation, and problem-solving abilities. Teams face challenge of deciding between alignment activities focused on organizational goals vs adaptability activities helping organizations adapt to changing external environments. Teams that balance both types of activities are known as ambidextrous teams. Through literature review, it was found that there is knowledge gap in understanding the link between team diversity, performance, and ambidexterity. This thesis tries exploring various diversity factors and its relation to team performance and ambidexterity. Further the thesis investigates if there are any differences in the link between team diversity, performance and ambidexterity based on firm types, that is product vs service-based firms.
To find the solution to the link, semi-structured case interviews was conducted. 6 team managers from product-based firms and 4 managers from service-based firms participated in the research. Data from these 10 semi-structured case interviews was analyzed using AtlasTi software and results of qualitative research is presented in the thesis. Various ways in which one can conceptualize diversity, advantages & disadvantages of diversity and its effect on team performance & ambidexterity is presented in this thesis based on the qualitative analysis of semi-structured case interviews.
The exploratory study indicates that semi-conductor team mangers conceptualize diversity from both social and information/decision making perspectives. Common surface level diversities such as function, experience, gender etc. were reported. At the same surface level diversities such as working style, task motivation, etc. were reported. The results indicate that teams various diversity factors can lead to divergent thinking and elaboration of task-relevant information thus improving team performance. Some of the reported benefits of diversity include increased knowledge base, better service to customers, better decision making, etc. Realization of diversity benefits is not straightforward; it comes with challenges. Some of these challenges due to diversity include complex team management, increased conflicts, increased time and effort. Thus, it is important for organizations to provide necessary support and environment for reaping the benefits from diversity. Such organizational control is more in terms of structures of teams in case of product-based firms; structural decisions drive ambidexterity and division could take place based on diversity types such as functional diversity, experience diversity etc. However, decentralized structures and informalization of non-routine activities in firms can enable better exploration. And diversity types such as experience, function or skills act as deciding factors in determining extent of structural decentralization and informalization of non-routine activities. Decentralization of non-routine activities can thus enable ambidexterity. Contrary to product-based firm, all the service-based firms reported that employees need to have skills and abilities to capture customer needs and deliver them on time. Therefore, it is evident that all the employees in service-based firms could be involved in exploration. Thus, naturally the employees in service organizations are involved in both the types of activities. Diversities such as skill and working style can thus enable contextual ambidexterity in service-based firms by enabling employees to serve customers better. ...
Master thesis (2021) - Huayi Sun, Ibo van de Poel, Emile Chappin, T.E. de Wildt, Paul Voskuilen
The long time horizon of sustainable energy developments is often associated with all sorts of issues that are caused by changes in values. The public attitude can be affected by these changes and potential risks in the lack of social acceptance could occur, which always lead to public oppositions to the implementation of the sustainable energy system in a city district. Integrating social acceptance into the long-term planning of energy projects is necessary to lower the risks. However, it is hard to assess the future acceptance of energy consumers in different sustainable energy options. Also, different stakeholders always have different opinions and concerns on the public accepted solutions, which causes conflicts in negotiation in the planning and decision-making phases. This research employed a participatory modelling approach to forecast the possible future developments in the district heating network in Amsterdam Southeast concerning the value changes. This method also helps stakeholders to understand the design requirements of the more public accepted sustainable energy system in the future. ...

Partnerships in preventing and preparing for terrorist attacks using common-use toxic and radiological substances as weapons

Doctoral thesis (2021) - J. Feltes, S.R.M. Miller, I.R. van de Poel
The terrorist use of chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) weapons is a worst-case scenario for most security agencies. Yet traditionally, the risk of CBRN-terrorism is characterized as a so-called “high impact – low probability” threat. Academics and analysts consider it challenging for terrorists to acquire these weapons and, hence, assign a low probability to the terrorist use of impactful CBRN weapons such as nuclear devices or weaponized microorganisms. Most researchers, however, assess the impact of a terrorist weapon solely based on its capability to physically destroy structures or harm organisms. This one-dimensional assessment rules out those toxic substances that are commonly considered CBRN-agents, but only possess limited destructive capabilities. Hence, these agents are not considered a priority for most security agencies. Rather, most resources in CBRN-defense are allocated to subjects like international non-proliferation efforts, whereas toxic substances that are openly available in hardware stores are often overlooked. The present study focuses on three of these toxic substances; ricin, phosphine, and americium. It will be shown that, while arguably having limited physical impact in the hands of terrorists, these and other toxic substances exhibit characteristics that could be of high value to the strategic and tactical goals of terrorist groups. For example, attacks with phosphine have the potential to inflict massive amounts of fear and disruption and are capable of causing political damage and damage to security institutions. The potential to inflict substantial amounts of non-kinetic damage as well as the availability and ease of use of these substances need to be properly acknowledged and met with a multi-layered web of countermeasures (web of prevention) by security institutions. However, as this thesis will show, this web of prevention ought to include not only Government agencies, but also other stakeholders such as manufacturers and vendors of these products, the press, researchers, and citizens. It will be argued that all of these stakeholder groups share a joint moral responsibility to combat terrorist attacks with toxic substances. This joint moral responsibility can be translated into specific actions of individuals in these groups of stakeholders that include, for example, the reporting of suspicious purchases in hardware stores or the flagging and deletion of weapon manuals on the internet. It will be shown that most of the current cooperative measures against these substances suffer from issues that can be traced back to the inability of the stakeholder groups to identify their respective responsibilities within the web of prevention. Furthermore, security institutions miss opportunities to operationalize the moral responsibilities of stakeholder groups such as vendors of toxic products. Based on this assessment, this thesis will give recommendations on how to improve the current CBRN security architecture. It will be shown that the responsibilities and actions of each stakeholder group have to be defined, discussed, and coordinated by all relevant stakeholder groups jointly. In order to do so, the theoretical concept of the web of prevention has to be turned into an institutionalized web in the form of a joint center. Such a joint center gives the stakeholder groups the opportunity to (1) assess the threat, (2) define tasks and actions of each group, and (3) equip each group with the means to perform these actions in an efficacious and ethically sustainable manner. ...

Identifying Value Conflicts Through Simulations Of Decentralized Energy Systems For City Districts

Master thesis (2019) - Anne Boijmans, Ibo van de Poel, Emile Chappin, Jan Kwakkel, Tristan de Wildt, Erik ten Elshof
This research has been performed to help the Dutch government with the decisions and choices it has to make in order to meet the requirements of the Paris Agreement and the Climate Agreement. Decentralized energy systems can be a solution for meeting these requirements, however trade-offs have to be made between different system criteria, which are evaluated as values in this research. The aim of this research is to find out what strategies can reduce and deal with value conflicts that can be identified when designing a decentralized energy system considering the properties of a city district. A specific city district is analyzed, i.e. 'De Vruchtenbuurt' in The Hague, the Netherlands. The research starts with an identification of values, conversion factors, governance models and technical designs which are important when changing to a decentralized energy system in 'De Vruchtenbuurt'. Following the Capability Approach is used to structure the different components and the relations between them. Subsequently, a translation of the components into a simulation model is made, using the values to evaluate the acceptability of the capabilities. By analyzing the values that are conflicting (for different conversion groups) for different input parameter settings, insights are gained about possible value conflicts that can emerge in 'De Vruchtenbuurt' and possibly also in other city districts. Finally, an analysis on strategies is developed that can be effective to limit the emergence of the identified value conflicts and therefore possibly support the change to a decentralized energy system in 'De Vruchtenbuurt' and in other city districts. Policies (financial instruments and supporting innovations) that create more feasible solutions for the heterogeneous households are effective to limit the context dependent value conflicts. It is not realistic to eliminate all value conflicts, since some of the values are inherently in conflict with each other. For these conflicts thresholds can be formulated that should be met for every value. Given that value conflicts exist, focusing on the process of the change to a decentralized energy system is seen as important factor for support and participation. ...
Master thesis (2019) - Anniek van Lieshout, Wim Ravesteijn, Linda Kamp, Ibo van de Poel
Ship emissions, from diesel, will cause an estimated 60 thousand people to die prematurely per year from emission related diseases such as, respiratory problems, cancer, high blood pressure and heart failure (Corbett, et al. (2007) has estimated that globally 60 thousand people will die prematurely because of (container) vessel emissions each year, especially people near shipping routes. To reduce the impact of these container vessels on public health an alternative sustainable energy sources needs to be developed. Thus, the port of Rotterdam needs to innovate.
In the development of the port area not all relevant stakeholder’s values are included in the decision process, this may lead to public resistance which impedes the development process. An example is the development of the Maasvlakte II, where public resistance impeded the development.
The aim of this report is to determine which technology, and which options for these technologies, are suitable and promising for the port of Rotterdam, hereby including public values to prevent adverse effects.
To determine which technical variant of the two trends, Shore Side Electricity and LNG, an MCA and scenarios were performed. The two technical options were determined by a desk research and interviews. The decision criteria were deducted from relevant stakeholders, by a document analysis.
The technical options that were obtained and compared in this report are a grid connected SSE option with off-shore wind power, and a containerised LNG PowerPac®. The SSE option prevails because it meets the decision criteria the best in the current situation and prevails in half of the scenarios. However, the port may implement an other option, because of practical issues or scenarios which were not included in this report
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Master thesis (2019) - Kurt Kreulen, Igor Nikolic, Ibo van de Poel
The need for an energy transition has arisen in response to a growing discrepancy between (A) what people find important or valuable in life, and (B) the performance of – or value delivered by – the physical energy system. Since the physical energy system has not changed much in recent decades, it is clear that changes in people’s values are responsible for the currently observed mismatch between A and B. It is relevant to investigate how – and/or whether – this divergence can be managed as levels of societal discontent rise in proportion to the incongruity between A and B.

Minimizing the divergence of A relative to B (and vice versa) calls for a deeper understanding of how belief system change happens. Anticipating belief system change may help to forestall the emergence of negative sentiments and consequent destabilization of socio-technical (energy) systems. One way in which belief system change may destabilize the functioning of the Dutch energy system is through altering patterns of consumer energy technology adoption behaviour.

A person’s values interact with her knowledge to determine the attitudes he/she
holds with respect to clean (i.e. low-carbon) energy technologies. These attitudes, in turn, impact one’s intention – and ultimately one’s decision – to adopt a clean energy technology. Hence, value and knowledge change induces attitude shifts which subsequently affect consumer intentions to adopt clean energy technologies. The dynamic interplay of values, knowledge, and attitudes is referred to as belief system change.

This thesis focusses on providing a way of thinking about how belief system change happens within an energy-system’s context. Additionally, this thesis investigates the usefulness of ABMs as research tools for systematically studying belief system change within socio-technical systems (energy systems in particular). ...

A case study of a chemical B2B company

Master thesis (2019) - Anusha Krishnamurthy, Ibo van de Poel, Zenlin Roosenboom-Kwee, T. Krapfl, P. Molteni
Digital transformation is taking place all around and there is hardly anything has not been affected (Reddy & Reinartz, 2017). It is reshaping a wide range of activities, influences the way we work, our communication and our consumer behaviors (Piccinini, Hanelt, R.W., & L.M., 2015). Benefits are less visible in certain situations, but a lot of administrative processes can be automated or digitized and manual labour can be reduced (Salo, 2006). In a business context, digital tools are widely adopted as ERP, CRM and e-business solutions, however some, like e-business exhibit a significant gap between adoption and widespread adoption use (Zhu, Dong, Xu, & Kraem, 2006). Various theories predict the adoption of technologies such as innovation diffusion, TAM and TOE Framework, but there is a gap in digital transformation literature that depicts the barriers to digital transformation, particularly taking into consideration its nature as a discontinuous change process that holistically transforms its people, organization, structure, in the pursuit of value creation (Henriette, Feki, & Boughzala, 2016). Furthermore, the chemical B2B industry has garnered a reputation for being a latecomer industry (Koehn, 2018). New startups have begun to enter the market where they leverage platform e-commerce services to lower prices and retain cost advantages, where large incumbent companies hesitate to try digital channels. ...