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Delineating optimal policy recommendations to achieve sustainable goals set by the European Commission

Master thesis (2022) - M. Peretto, A.F. Correlje, B. Enserink, H.G. van der Voort, Vlasios Oikonomou
Energy poverty, understood as a situation in which one household is not able to afford essential domestic energy services, is a phenomenon spread throughout Europe. In the following study, the Republic of Serbia will be considered specifically. The latter is, as other Western Balkan countries, affected by inefficient dwellings and housing appliances. These are characterised by outdated technological devices that further hamper their energy efficiency and carbon footprint. Additionally, the majority of the buildings in Serbia are outdated and need to be refurbished. This is aggravated by the fact that the residential sector represents the largest final consumer of energy in the country. Countries presenting a higher range of low-quality and energy-inefficient dwellings tend to present higher levels of energy poverty (and vice versa). Typically, residents living in energy inefficient households present below-average disposable incomes. Similarly, low-income groups are more subject to energy poverty. This hints to the “vicious cycle of energy poverty”, where households presenting low disposable incomes eventually end up spending more on energy since these are unable to afford inefficient dwellings and/or house appliances. The correlation between household energy efficiency and energy poverty has been recognised throughout the literature and among governmental institutions. In fact, increasing energy efficiency is a target present both in the Fit for 55 package delineated by the European Commission and the Sustainable Development Goals developed by the United Nations.

Considering the previously mentioned “vicious cycle of energy poverty” and the fact that low-income groups are more affected by energy poverty, it was decided to focus on this specific strait of society. Additionally, being a contracting party of the Energy Community Treaty, the Republic of Serbia adheres to implementing EU climate directives (sustainable goals) in the country. Stemming from this, the following Main Research Question was delineated, around which the whole research process was structured: Which energy policy strategy should the Ministry of Mining and Energy implement in Serbia as to achieve household energy efficiency and energy poverty objectives set by the European Commission directed towards low-income groups?

A case study-mixed methods approach was utilised for the following study. By merging the two methodologies, the proposed policies presented elements and were analysed from both a qualitative and quantitative perspective. On the one hand, the institutional, legal, and policy framework in the field of energy in Serbia was analysed, as to ensure the proposed policies were politically and socially feasible. On the other hand, the technical effectiveness in terms of final energy consumption and expenses reduction was also considered. To that end, a MS Excel linear and static simulation model was employed. It was found that performing a simulation-backed analysis of the available policy strategies in Serbia, delineating an optimal one to reduce energy poverty levels and improve household energy efficiency among low-income groups in Serbia, satisfying the sustainable targets set by the European Commission, represented a knowledge gap in the literature.

Three main policies were delineated corresponding to three different simulated scenarios. Namely, (i) the implementation of an emissions trading scheme extended as to also include the residential sector; (ii) the phasing out of heating oil and fossil fuels in 2030, followed by natural gas in 2040; (iii) the implementation of Minimum Energy Performance Standards (MEPS) in the residential sector. The latter resulted as the best performing policy, presenting the highest reduction in final energy consumption and expenses, resulting politically and socially feasible, delivering a positive social impact among low-income households in Serbia.
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Master thesis (2022) - W.M. de Boer, Marijn Janssen, B. Enserink, Erik Bookholt, Rik Van de Beek
Due to the increasing amount of data processed within organizations, these organizations are increasingly experiencing shortcomings in their current monolithic data architectures and their capacity to facilitate these data operations. The particular limitations cause an increasing demand for a data architecture design that can address these limitations. A distributed and domain-oriented Data Mesh architecture promises to address the limitations of current monolithic architectures in terms of scalability, improved data accessibility, shortened lead times between operations and analytics and improved appointments of ownership and responsibility for data. These improvements are promised, based on the design of a Data Mesh architecture that is built upon the following four principles: (1) domain-oriented decentralized data ownership, (2) data as a product, (3) self-serve data platform, and (4) federated computational governance. This research focuses on the assessment of organization readiness for the migration to a Data Mesh architecture... ...

Implementing predictive maintenance, digital twins and realizing data governance for the current asset management at Rijkswaterstaat

Master thesis (2022) - M.H. Azad, Marijn Janssen, B. Enserink, Yigal Levin, Rens van Maarschalkerweerd
Rijkswaterstaat’s Storm Surge Barriers are expensive assets providing economic value with the expectation of future returns. The maintenance is executed by the asset management department, which aims at maximizing operability without sacrificing safety and reliability. However, regular maintenance becomes more stringent as circumstances change, and a budget shortfall is expected in the same timeframe. These operational and economical interferences urge the asset management department to adapt using more data-driven approaches replacing (some) physical inspections and only conducting maintenance when needed. This so-called data-driven asset management has the potential to reduce costs and ensure reliability.
Despite the promise, there is no guidance for developing data-driven asset management. In this thesis, design principles are developed to assist in better decision-making using data-driven technologies, resulting in effective maintenance. These new design principles integrate three different areas into the current asset management: Digital Twins (DT), providing a virtual environment for safely testing in various scenarios, Predictive Maintenance (PdM) for confidently predicting a future asset failure and Data Governance (DG), ensuring the data quality for appropriate decision-making for the mentioned data-driven technologies. In other words, the goal of this research is to develop design principles that overcome real-world asset data-related problems during the implementation of DT, PdM and DG within the asset management context.

The qualitative design-based research methodology consists of the following steps: Identifying real-world problems, developing appropriate solutions, and then finalizing by prescribing actionable sentences, also known as design principles. This research design was demonstrated in a real-life case for the Storm Surge Barriers asset class at Rijkswaterstaat (RWS). Two data-collecting research methods were utilized. The first data collecting method was the literature study, which acquired information from 25+ scientific papers from three developing fields in the scientific literature: PdM, DT and DG. The second was a series of semi-structured interviews held with 33 RWS interviewees in different parts of the organization, collecting real-life asset data problems and the associated best practices. To guide the interviews across the data-driven developments and the current status of data governance within RWS, an interview protocol was constructed. The interviews results revealed contrasting views on (1) the SSB openness to new technology, (2) the alignment between asset management priorities and the data-driven technology, and (3) data access by third parties. These contrasting viewpoints unknowingly construct invisible (almost) impermeable walls between different layers in the RWS organization, which prevents knowledge spillovers, resulting in departments maturing at different rates and impeding the understanding and communication between them.
 
As part of the research design, four types of design principles were formulated. The first was the interview-derived design principles. The second type was the literature derived design principles acquired by the results from the literature study. After that, the interview and the literature-derived principles were combined into 'the refined design principles’. The last type is the data governance design principles, for which the problems were inspired by semi-structured interviews and are solely solved by the current data governance literature.

Thereafter, the refined and data governance design principles were tested within the context of the DT and the PdM by using data flow diagrams. The benefit of using the data flow diagrams is to test if the selected design principles improve the practices of asset management.
Consequently, 33 design principles were developed across the four types of design principles that prescribe guidance on how PdM, DT and DG contribute to developing data-driven asset management. From these, 4 were data governance design principles, and 12 were refined design principles. The refined design principles were not found in prior literature and could be further grouped into short-term and long-term relevance for asset management.
The novelty that these refined design principles bring is twofold, filling in two gaps in the literature. Firstly, It brings clear guidelines which were previously scattered and unclearly presented across the scientific literature. Secondly, these design principles are approached in a novel manner by combining the core insights from the literature and the inclusion of empirical best practices in a real-life case.

The results of implementing the relevant data governance and refined design principles into the AM are twofold. Firstly, the DeP’s enhanced the DT from primarily visualization into a more multifunctional usable digital asset for various asset management purposes. Secondly, implementing the same set of principles enhanced the PdM by including the most important factors to produce reliable automatic predictions to better manage the maintenance schedule.

The managerial recommendation is that the digital twins and predictive maintenance development need to develop hand in hand with data governance aspects and utilize a system to centralize the knowledge across all storm surge barriers, like periodic communities of practices. A lack of these two crucial developments will inhibit RWS long-term vision of transitioning from a pure civil organization to a hybrid organization: A synergy between civil engineering discipline and data-driven technologies.

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Implications for achieving alignment in future joint clinical assessments

Master thesis (2022) - M. Wassink, B. Enserink, A. Boru, S. Hinrichs-Krapels, Tom Nijhuis, Tom Constandse
Background & Objective: The unprecedented value and long­term uncertainties of gene therapies have challenged established health technology assessment (HTA) methods. Real-world data (RWD) and real-world evidence (RWE) may mitigate the encountered uncertainties. However, empirical evidence appears to be lacking in the literature. This research aimed to provide this evidence and identify implications for EU-wide gene therapy joint clinical assessments.

Methods
: An initial literature review laid the theoretical foundation for the research. A retrospective comparative analysis delivered empirical evidence on RWD/RWE usage in gene therapy HTAs. Preliminary findings were probed in three use cases and verified in semi­structured interviews.

Results: Nineteen HTA reports published by the HTA bodies G­BA (Germany) and NICE (England) were identified for the ten in­scope gene therapies.
Whereas NICE had an average inclusion of 14 sources per HTA report (with an acceptance rate of 56%), G­BA had 8 (with 32% acceptance rate).
While RWD/RWE supporting evidence on an external comparator had the lowest acceptance rate, RWD/RWE on intervention effectiveness had the highest acceptance rate. Insufficient information to substantiate the choice of RWD/RWE and inappropriate RWE study design was the most common exclusion rationales for RWD/RWE.

Conclusions: The presented empirical evidence adds to the current knowledge base in two ways; it provides empirical evidence on HTAs of gene therapies (1) and RWD/RWE usage in gene therapy HTAs (2). This work provides insights into how RWD/RWE usage differs between HTA bodies and explicates relevant considerations for gene therapy manufacturers when using RWD/RWE in future HTA submissions. It also proposes that alignment on evidentiary requirements and assessment elements will optimise the transferability of future joint clinical assessment outcomes to national HTA bodies. Knowledge transfer and knowledge sharing initiatives will play a pivotal role in achieving such a consensus. ...
Blockchaintechnologyhasintroducedthepossibilitytoexchangevalueandinformationthroughtheinternet without the supervision or permission from any third party intermediary. While many private and public entities have seen this as a chance to increase their operational efficiency, other ventures have been utilizing this sameedgeasameantodevelopnewinstitutionalregimesgiventheimpactontransactioncostreduction, The theories central to institutional economics claim that transaction costs are the ultimate driver for shifts in institutional settings. The purpose of the following research was to investigate whether the reduction in transaction costs allowed by blockchain technology is effectively causing new forms of institutions to arise. Given that blockchain is still in its infancy, there is a current lack of academic literature addressing its governance edge. Furthermore, the few studies available adopt a comparative approach, hence failing to explore the entirety of new institutional possibilities. For this reason, the following research utilized the Institutional Analysis and development framework developed by Elinor Ostrom as a holistic and institutional agnostic methodofanalysis. The particular application analyzed was the one of financial product exchanges. Today, the exchange of financial products as securities, is coordinated by hierarchical organizations, namely firms. As a matter of fact, multiple different firms are involvedintheexchangeoftheseproducts. Exchangesareresponsibleformatching buyers and sellers, clearing houses assume counter party risks and make sure the trading parties can meet their obligations, and custodians and central security depositories are responsible for the final settlement of transactions. Furthermore, reconciliation costs are incurred by all participants when updating their respective databases. Given that blockchains are fundamentally public distributed records of transaction, they effectively undermine the economic efficiency and logic of the current systems of clearing, settlement andreconciliation. Decentralized exchanges are tackling these issues today. For the purpose of the analysis a total of three decentralized exchanges were shortlisted from the over 200 existing. The first filter of choice was to choose between exchanges native to the Ethereum blockchain. This because, being the oldest in the space, they present the most well developed and resilient communities apt for the analysis. Next, exchanges were further filtered by total liquidity in the protocol, or total value locked, and trading volume. The three exchanges selected for the analysis in the end were Uniswap, Sushiswap and Curve. Given that these protocols run on a public and permissionless blockchain, it was possible to retrieve large amounts of data on their relative performance. A number of data acquisition and analytics platforms were utilized for data analysis and visualization namely, Dune, Tally and Sybil ...
Master thesis (2021) - A. Sinha, M.W. Ludema, B. Enserink, F. Kleiman, A.M.R. deVries
Due to increasing urbanisation, the basic necessities of housing demands are also on a rise. This leads to increase in construction activities and movement of construction vehicles to and from construction sites. However, the upcoming Green Deal 2025 policy would pose restrictions to the entry of construction vans, the most widely utilized transport for the sector, in the inner city areas. This reverse streams of problems for the sector pose an ardent need to effectively organise logistics in the sector. Even though there are exisiting solutions for tacking these issues in the sector such as use of Construction consolidation centres (CCC) in the sector, their use is limited to the bigger companies in the sector. Meanwhile, its adoption remains largely low due to the dominance of SMEs in the sector that suffer from financial limitations of organising these solutions and an unclear case of business case for them. This project is aimed to explore suitable collaborative sharing solutions for capacity sharing and presenting trade-offs in terms of qualitative and quantitative benefits of the solutions. The project devises an awareness session methodology to create awareness towards openness of these solutions in the chain. The session was evaluated with construction logistics experts and seems to attain its objective of creating awareness for the sharing concepts. ...
Sanitation should be made accessible to everyone. It is fundamental for our dignity and privacy. As centralized government has been observed to be limited in addressing complex problems, many developing countries resorted to decentralization. In theory, decentralization can improve the provision of public goods and services, including sanitation. Social and political factors are believed to be the leading cause of limiting the progress in the sanitation sector. Multiple studies have demonstrated the importance of social networks in sanitation governance. We propose to further explore interaction between actors based on key activities in sanitation sectors. We choose Jakarta, Indonesia, as our case study. Jakarta, the capital city of Indonesia, is inhabited by 10.56 million people (measured in September 2020). It is estimated that 86% of the population have not received access to properly managed domestic wastewater. The main research question to be answered is “How do the interactions among various actors influence sanitation service provision in Jakarta?”. This thesis explores the influence of multiple key activities to contextualize the current provision of sanitation services in Jakarta, Indonesia. We use the Network of Adjacent Action Situations (NAAS) framework proposed by McGinnis (2011). To identify the action situations, we use the sanitation service delivery function categories used by Mason et al. (2020). The sanitation service systems encompass the provision of related infrastructure, namely sewer network, septic tank, vacuum truck, sewage treatment plant, and fecal sludge treatment plants. Constitutionally, the provision of sanitation services in Indonesia are carried out by provincial and district governments. The provision started to be mandated by minimum public good and service standards in 2014. There is no sanitation law, nor it is integrated with the latest water resource law. Sanitation policies are mainly initiated on the national level. They largely came from four actors: (1) Ministry of Public Works and Housing, (2) Ministry of Health, (3) Ministry of Environment and Forestry, and (4) National Sanitation Working Group which comprise aforementioned ministries and other ministries. These three aforementioned ministries are the most active for sanitation service provision in the national stakeholders. In the subnational government, Jakarta Province, PD PAL Jaya is the technical operator of major sanitation infrastructures in Jakarta. The DKIJ Water Resource Agency is the counterpart of PD PAL Jaya in terms of sanitation service development. The development is additionally influenced by the DKIJ Regional Development Planning Agency, the governor, and the Governor Advisory Team. The DKIJ Environmental Agency is the enforcer of the wastewater standard. This thesis presents seven action situations (AS) constituting the NAAS of Jakarta’s sanitation service intended to describe the current sanitation governance: the National Policy AS, the Jakarta Policy AS, the National Regulation AS, the Jakarta Regulation AS, the National Financing AS, the Jakarta Financing AS, and the Jakarta Production & Provision AS. We found two leverage points where the outcome could cascade over to most other action situations. These are Jakarta Policy AS, which is mostly about planning, and the Jakarta Production & Provision AS which is concerned with implementation. ...

A multiple-case study of four onshore wind projects in the Netherlands

Onshore wind farms play an important role in realizing the 2030 climate targets. According to the Climate Agreement, onshore energy production should be increased to 35 TWh by 2030. This means that up to 600 additional wind turbines should be developed, which is a challenging task. The development of onshore wind farms often meets the resistance of local residents. This opposition can, inter alia, result in project delays or cancellations. Citizen participation is a widely discussed manner to prevent and deal with local opposition. In this thesis, exploratory qualitative analysis is conducted to address the following research question: How does citizen participation influence decision-making processes of four selected Dutch onshore wind farms? The present research focuses on the interaction between the most important actors within the participation process: local residents, the government, and the wind farm initiators. A multiple-case study is conducted to analyse the decision-making processes and to answer the main research question. Four Dutch cases are analysed; Jaap Rodenburg II, Nij Hiddum-Houw, Windplanblauw and Wind Farm Moerdijk. First, each case was studied separately by conducting four within case studies. Afterwards, the analyses have been compared in a cross-case study. The theoretical framework, Teisman's Rounds Model and Contextual Interaction Theory (CIT), were used to code qualitative data in a thematic analysis. The data is collected by conducting semi-structured interviews conducted and studying policy documents. This way, citizen participation, decision-making processes, and the actors' roles could be described meticulously. The findings of the analyses are presented in the Rounds Model and the CIT. The Rounds Model is used to graphically represent the decision-making processes and the role of the actors. Since the Rounds Model pays little attention to contextual factors and governance levels affecting the decision-making process, the CIT contributes to the Rounds Model. As mentioned before, the CIT and the Rounds Model functioned as a theoretical framework to conduct the cross-case study. The Rounds model facilitated a comparison of the four participation and decision-making processes. The rounds model has provided information about the interrelation of the decisions made, the relation between actors, the intensity of the participation rounds and the most influential moments at a glance. The CIT is used to study the most important participation rounds more in-depth and provided information about governance and other contextual factors influencing those events. The combination of the two models led to a broad understanding of the decision-making processes and an in-depth insight into the factors of influence. The analyses have shown that citizen participation is used to equally distribute benefits and burdens of winds farms, reduce nuisance, convince the responsible authority that the interests of local residents are considered, improve the wind farm design, and reduce local opposition. Multiple forms of citizen participation are found in the decision-making processes: wind farm cooperatives and associations, options for financial investment, community funds, design workshops, surveys about the wind farm layout, working groups and advisory boards. In all of the cases studies, local opposition led to a more intensive citizen participation process. The different forms of participation, as described above, have led to the re-location of wind turbines, a reduction of the turbine height, additional nuisance reducing measures, additional financial benefits and once even to a totally new wind farm layout. Several factors were discerned to stimulate the decision-making process. Especially co-ownership, representativeness of the participating local residents and early engagement have improved the citizen participation process. Additionally, a stringent policy and an independent party to advise local residents during the participation process can facilitate efficient decision-making. Therefore, it is recommended to 1) the initiators and the responsible authority to immediately start the citizen participation process, 2) actively invite local residents of all surrounding districts to the participation process, 3) provide local residents with an option for co-ownership, 4) the municipalities and provinces to define clear participation in policy documents on before, and 5) to ensure local residents have an independent advisor during the participation process. Lastly, several subjects for further research are identified. First of all, it would be interesting to combine or compare the findings of the four cases with findings from other studies developed by different parties. Here, additional knowledge can be collected that can be used to investigate potential influencing factors further as identified here; the influence of the responsible authority and the room for negotiation. Above all, it should be studied how to ensure a representation of local residents and how to interest local residents to participate in an early stage. And, how will participation influence the decision-making process in the new situation: where the Climate Agreement, the RES and the new Environment and Planning Act are guiding. ...
Master thesis (2021) - W.A.P. van den Berg, E. Schröder, B. Enserink
By design, excise duties are primarily a tax which serves to generate revenue for the central government. However, when they are placed on fuels they can, from a consumer point of view, be regarded as similar to carbon taxes. Carbon pricing, and carbon taxes in particular, are often championed by experts in relation to reducing carbon emissions. Based on these aforementioned notions, this research set out to investigate the role excise duties on fuel can play as an intervention employed by policy makers looking to reduce CO2 emissions. With this goal in mind, a Dutch case study is performed. This case study utilizes the synthetic control method to empirically investigate if the increase in Dutch excise duties on gasoline can be causally linked to CO2 emission reductions from road transport. Ultimately, the research found that an increase in the excise duty on gasoline can result in a significant decrease in per capita emissions. These findings resonate with the literature, and point towards how excise duties can play a part in strategically designed environmental policies. From a policy maker’s perspective, this means that in combination with complementary environmental policies such as technology mandates, raising the price of excise duties on fuel could prove to significantly contribute to emissions reduction goals. ...

A Multiple Case Study Addressing the Institutional Rules underlying Co-creation

Master thesis (2021) - M.S. Naik, T. Hoppe, B. Enserink, A.V. Itten
Reaching net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 is vital to limit global warming to 1.5◦C. Decarbonizing the heating sector that is globally responsible for half of total energy consumption is necessary to achieve climate-neutrality goals. The complex nature of the heating sector (characterized by variable market demands, and complicated stakeholder networks) has resisted the stakeholder alignment necessary to develop sustainable heating solutions. Co-creation provides a viable solution - a governance structure characterized by multiple, semi-autonomous centres for decision-making. There is little insight, however, into co-creation strategies in the field of sustainable heating. State-of-the-art literature indicates the need to explore the theoretical underpinnings for co-creation. Furthermore, if performed incorrectly, co-creation can result in the destruction of the public value and citizen rights it aims to uphold. The Institutional Analysis and Development (IAD)Framework provides a systematic method to analyze policy activities, over varying temporal, geographic and socioeconomic contexts. This body of research takes a novel approach in applying the IAD framework to understand the factors that aid and impede the development of effective co-creation. The framework demonstrates its efficacy in assessing both the process of co-creation and its outcomes. The IAD Framework was applied on qualitative data in the form of interviews and archival data from co-creation participants in four pilot cities that are part of the EU-Interreg 2 Seas Sustainable Heating Implementation of Fossil-Free Technologies project. Results show that supportive project management conditions such as stable funding, comprehensive planning support and the involvement of key stakeholders (actors) across the different stages of co-creation are vital for its success. The presence of community attributes such as shared values and goals motivate stakeholders to collaborate together. When actors who adopt the role of coordinators view co-creation favourably, they can use their administrative skills and social capital to bring together stakeholders in an effective manner to find solutions acceptable to all. Involvement of key actors in the initial planning stages is important to develop strategies that are tailored to specific communities. The presence of neutral actors such as research institutes is helpful across all stages and was shown to be vital in initiating co-creative strategies and facilitating supportive conditions for social learning. Furthermore, this study found that pre-existing governance structures between interacting stakeholders determines the pathway in which co-creation evolves. Pre-existing power dynamics, combined with the crucial role played by coordinators in the group, form patterns of interaction that tend to reinforce governance structures that do not allow for effective co-creation. Policymakers may benefit from the following recommendations - a) coordinators must commit to involving key stakeholders, including citizens, in all phases of co-creation; b) when co-creation is initiated by actors who are traditionally in authoritative positions in society, provisions must be made for capacity-building in other stakeholder groups. This study focuses on co-creation pathways when initiated by actors traditionally in powerful roles, in liberal democracies in Western Europe. Future research can focus on co-creation pathways when initiated in a bottom-up fashion. The development of co-creation in different political and societal settings merits further research. ...
Master thesis (2021) - M.S. Muhammad Sulthoanuddin Akbar, H.L.M. Bakker, B. Enserink, Daniel Sihombing
Within the Indonesian national road network, Bina Marga, assisted by regional offices (Balai), manage nearly 18,000 bridges scattered across 34 provinces. Maintaining its reliability is vital as inland transportation remains the most effective mobility means for ± 270 million inhabitants. Therefore, as a road service provider under the Ministry of Public Work and Housing, they aim to achieve a high maturity level in public infrastructure asset management (PIAM) practices. It is done by improving the current Bridge Management Systems (BMS) 1992 guideline. However, managing such a vast network is challenging. The limited human resources in quality & quantity hinder Bina Marga and Balai to strive for reliable data and adequate routine maintenance. Inspired by Indonesian collectivism, the study explores local community involvement to improve bridge data quality and adequate routine maintenance, i.e., BMS x Locals. Its objective is to recommend Bina Marga to improve the current BMS practices through a BMS x Locals guideline. The study sketches the current state of BMS, identifies drivers in outsourcing locals, identifies the type of works and groups, identifies locals’ willingness to be outsourced, and generates situational strategies. The research question is formulated as: How can the local community be involved as the external resources to assist Bina Marga’s in Indonesian Bridge Management Systems (BMS). This study uses interviews and desk study to collect data on six Bina Marga & five Balai NTB officials, and five locals in West Nusa Tenggara province. In addition, various data analyses are performed, consisting of Causal Loop Diagram (CLD), Multi-criteria Decision-Making Analysis (MCDA), SWOT & TOWS analysis. The study results and the BMS x Locals guideline have been validated by a high-level Balai official. For the result, CLD reveals that Bina Marga is struggling for a high PIAM maturity level because of the absence of specific quadrennial strategic planning (RENSTRA) and limited human resources in BMS, making them unable to obtain reliable data and perform adequate routine maintenance within a year. It also identifies Bina Marga’s drivers to outsource locals: up-to-date data monitoring, additional human resources, economy, and public engagement. The MCDA, amounting to 4 analyses, identifies nine criteria: cost, time, bridge literacy, technological literacy, labouring skill, quality, continuity, level of education, and age. Such criteria generate inventory and condition data – conducted by local university elements and cleaning works (garbage, rubble, grass, and drainage) – by locals in the municipality’s list. Locals’ willingness to be outsourced is also unveiled through CLD, consisting of economy, i.e., additional income and knowledge & local pride. Moreover, SWOT & TOWS analysis identifies 11 strengths, 12 weaknesses, 9 opportunities, and 10 threats for BMS x Locals; and generates situational strategies (maxi-maxi: 7, maxi-mini: 7, mini-maxi: 6, and mini-mini: 7). Finally, synthesised situational strategies amounting to 1 to 2 items have been presented according to the empirical challenges. Based on the research outcome, BMS x Locals guideline is recommended to Bina Marga and Balai comprising six primary activities: screening, assessment of capacity, organisation forming & linking, planning & design, implementation, and monitoring & evaluation. ...
Master thesis (2021) - E. Vasilikos, J.N. Quist, K. Blok, B. Enserink
In recent years, there is growing evidence that global warming arises from human activities, and as a result, efforts are being made worldwide to ease the burden on the environment and avoid the worst consequences of climate change. One of the most important interventions is the decrease in carbon emissions from the energy sector. In the Cyclades islands there is still a very large margin for improvement, especially considering the great potential from renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar. While there have been relevant studies for some of these islands, there is not a complete plan for the transition towards sustainable energy. Therefore, a backcasting analysis is used in this thesis in order to answer the main research question: How can a sustainable energy system in the Cyclades islands be realised by 2030? While there is a lot of ground to be covered in the transition, the slightly short end-point of 2030 is chosen, also to align with the policies of the Greek state. It is envisioned that the energy system by then shall be sustainable, self-sufficient, efficient, and reliable. After developing the energy mix for each island, a “What-Who-How” backcasting analysis is conducted as part of the backcasting framework, in order to identify the full extent of the necessary interventions. The chief change towards the transition is of course the installation of renewable energy projects, and other, supporting systems, while the development of a strong policy framework is also a key requirement. Moreover, it is important that the public is also included in the transition, educated, and informed. Also, it is worth noting that further attention is being placed on the accommodation sector, owing to its considerable effect brought on by the touristic character of the islands. Based on the identified actions and interventions, an implementation timeline is developed until the end-point of 2030. The transition is split into three phases, each with a specific goal in mind. In the beginning, the first steps and the preparation for the future will be made, while afterwards the system will be ready to be functioning with the generation of energy by RES. Finally, in the third phase the storage of energy will also be available and the transition will thus be complete. Overall, transitioning to a sustainable energy system in the Cyclades is technically feasible. Nevertheless, there are quite a large number of both technical and non-technical changes necessary, and they need to be carried out in a rather short amount of time if the target of 2030 is to be attained. It is understandable therefore that a strong policy framework and a keen cooperation between the stakeholders are of utmost importance, in order for the Cyclades to have a sustainable energy system by 2030. ...
The German automotive industry is world renowned for its monopoly in the luxury car market. With a prominent global presence, they are well known for their technological superiority (design, engines etc.). However recent trends in the automotive industry have put their monopoly in jeopardy. Firstly, Tesla’s success in the market with e-vehicles presents a threat of substitution. The German automotive industry prides in its build and petrol and diesel powered engines. However , with developed countries moving towards sustainability, e-vehicles have gradually started pushing the German cars out of the market. Secondly, given the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, luxury cars aren’t a preferred investment. However the new concept of ‘frugal innovations’ still provides optimistic hopes during these troubled times. This involves targeting the growing middle class population in developing countries by developing cars that are just good enough to meet basic customer needs. India is a country with a promising buying potential. Well known automakers like Ford, Suzuki, Hyundai and Tata, have successfully innovated to serve this market. However for the German automotive industry, which has always targeted affluent customers, frugal innovations would be challenging internally and externally as it calls for a different mindset. Despite the increasing importance of frugal innovations, academic sources do not provide a country and industry specific strategy for a high-tech firm to switch to frugal innovations. Given this controversy, this research attempts to explore the scope for frugal innovations for the German automotive industry in India by answering the research question: What are the opportunities and threats concerning frugal innovations for the German automotive industry in India? Given the knowledge gap resulting from the lack of available sources, the research starts with the construction of a theoretical framework that would enable a firm to assess its current position in terms of frugal innovations. This framework represents a detailed overview of the internal and external factors including organisation, value chain, competitors, social, political and legal factors to name a few. This framework also forms the backbone of further research work to be embedded in. Additionally, it could also be used by a product based firm that wishes to transition to frugal innovations. The generic nature of this framework has been obtained from both strategic management and frugal innovation literature. The research makes use of the complementarity approach to identify the internal and external opportunities and threats available. The first approach has been a thorough study of the literature from different disciplines that would have the necessary answers. Secondly, the Fiat Palio is an example of a controversial frugal innovation in India by the Italian automaker Fiat. The story of Fiat in India revolves around its very high receptivity during its inception and its eventual downfall in a few years. Having enjoyed the status of an elite automaker, a second case study of Fiat Palio in India has been performed to identify the factors that could be of influence. Thirdly, the research features insights from around 8 academic and industry experts specialized in this area. The combined insights from the three approaches were embedded in the context of the evaluated literature. To assess a firm’s current position in the market environment and make business decisions, the SWOT analysis is one of the most widely used tools. As a consequence, the combined findings were reported in the form of a SWOT analysis. However, the SWOT has certain disadvantages in taking business decisions, in a highly competitive environment. As a consequence, a new and a modified approach to SWOT known as the evolutionary and correlative SWOT has been considered as the tool for analysis to identify the opportunities and threats. Using the evolutionary and correlative SWOT analysis qualitatively, the opportunities and threats have been identified into four categories: Real opportunities, where the internal strengths and external opportunities are in perfect synergy; Space of lost opportunities, wherein the organization has a vast potential to review itself internally to tap external opportunities; space of possible defense, wherein, the firms could use its internal strengths to combat threats; and Real threats, wherein the internal weaknesses and external threats are in perfect synergy. The main sources of opportunities for the German automotive industry is its strong technical skill set, presence of well established suppliers, superior brand name that could give them an edge in comparison to competitors. However, with competitors like Suzuki, Tata and Hyundai skilled in local market adaptation, mass production, meeting low cost pressures including inexpensive after sales service, pose a major competitive threat. The success of the German automotive industry lies in reviewing the firms and making internal changes and exploiting opportunities to combat this. Expanding production and service networks by forming alliances and partnerships provide a ray of hope to push further in this market. A total of 15 opportunities and threats collectively were identified that if dealt with effectively could result in the success of frugal innovations for the German automotive industry. The main contribution of this research includes the identification of a new market opportunity for the German automotive industry, with the various factors that could lead to its success and failure. Additionally, this research contributes to the academic literature by highlighting a few key limitations of the frugal innovations literature like their lack of focus on sales and service as one of the most important parameters in determining a firm’s success with frugal innovations. Secondly, the research builds on the work of Vlados (2019), by using evolutionary and correlative analysis as a tool to make strategic decisions. Lastly, given the lack of technological expertise and living conditions in India, this move from the German automotive industry to frugal innovations would be a major contributor to the country’s development. The research makes use of both a managerial and societal approach to identifying the factors that make it a good fit for the MOT curriculum. ...

A mixed methodology approach to understanding cybercrime

To protect critical services in today's society it is necessary to mitigate and prevent risks threatening the reliability of the internet. Internet-of-Things (IoT) devices are the number one attack target on the internet. The situation will become worse as there will be an expected 40 billion IoT devices in 2025. IoT bot activity represented 78% malware network activity or detection events in carrier networks in 2018. The vulnerability and large volume of IoT devices make them a likely target for cybercriminals in distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks. The rise of IoT is increasing the volume of DDoS attacks. A lot of (critical) infrastructure are therefore susceptible being shut down by DDoS attacks. DDoS attacks are commoditized with booter services, which perform attacks on targets in return for money. This allows a wider audience to utilize DDoS attacks as the only necessary prerequisite is money. These services have increased attack frequencies and attack power of the attacks. The DDoS-as-a-Service landscape has mainly used amplification attacks to take down their victims, however, it is yet unclear if they are also utilizing the growth of IoT for their purposes. This research will look at the impact of IoT-based DDoS attacks on the victims, with the main research question being: What patterns of commoditization and victimization can we observe with IoT­-based DDoS attacks compared to amplification attacks? Conclusively, vulnerable IoT devices are already a serious threat. They are commoditized and they bring significant differences to DDoS attack characteristics and victimization patterns. As DDoS remains an arms race where adaptation is important, this research showcases a concrete example of how emerging technology can change the existing marketplaces and attack patterns. It also showed its value by looking at IoT from a holistic view to gain understanding of the technical as well as the social impacts. However, more research is needed in this field as the quickly changing field needs to be monitored. Questions still remain which factors can explain the country-level effects in more detail. Expansion of the tools and capabilities to investigate underground chat data would be fruitful as well. ...
Master thesis (2021) - F.V. Pragt, K. Blok, B. Enserink, J.K.A. Langer
Indonesia has set ambitious targets to increase renewable energy in the energy and electricity mix for 2025 and 2050. Solar photovoltaic (PV) is one of the renewable energy technology types that could play an important role in this transition, given the high resource potential compared to other countries and the global declining costs. The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resource (MoEMR) has recognized the potential of solar energy and has expressed the intention to increase the share in the electricity mix (which currently is less than 1%) by focusing primarily on rooftop solar PV systems. However, utility-scale solar PV power plants could also play an important role, given the economies of scale advantages relative to rooftop systems. Unfortunately, a financial roadblock can be identified for the further development of utility-scale solar PV: the maximum allowed electricity prices that state electricity company Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) pays for electricity produced by a solar power plant, are often lower than the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). This creates an financially unattractive situation. This situation calls for insight into the economic potential of utility-scale solar PV and how this can be increased. However, no studies could be found that (1) look at how policies interventions can help to overcome the financial barrier and increase the economic potential and (2) assess the economic potential quantitatively not just in terms of LCOE but also in terms of the potential capacity and electricity generation given the maximum electricity price regulations that are in place. ...
Master thesis (2021) - R.H.C. Nguyen, T. Hoppe, B. Enserink, A.V. Itten
According to the Dutch Climate Agreement, each municipality has to formulate its heating transition vision strategy by the end of 2021. In the strategy, each municipality has to show how it will make its municipality natural gas-free, specifies the technology that will be implemented and describes the timeline for each of its neighborhoods. This will be a major challenge for municipalities , which will need public support to accomplish this. The role of citizens is considered essential for the heating transition. Co-creation provides an opportunity for this problem, in which citizens are not only participating in the process, but have also become the initiator and designer of the process. The heating transition is a complex process, which stretches beyond the local level at multiple governance levels. The heating transition setting is very complex and polycentric, where multiple actors and different governments at multiple levels are involved. The polycentric governance perspective will be proposed for this study. Polycentric governance is a system, in which multiple public and private parties interact with each other to decide on a specific geographical location through a system of negotiated rules and norms to solve a problem efficiently with multiple semi-autonomous centers of decision making. ...
Master thesis (2020) - Edwin Chung, L.A. Tavasszy, B. Enserink, A.J. van Binsbergen
The municipal of Amsterdam plans to implement a zero emission (ZE) zone by 2025. A plan is required to implement a battery electric truck (BET) charging infrastructure. To derive at the preferred feasible BET charging infrastructures, the research assesses the available BET, available charging methods, stakeholder perception, and BET energy demand in the municipality of Amsterdam. The research suggests a stationary catenary charging infrastructure, with the carrier, shipper, and charging point operator responsible for constructing, maintaining, and operating the charging stations. The municipal should take a pro-active role in the implementation and are advised to postpone the ZE zone implementation to give more time for technology development of BET and stationary catenary, and give more time for the construction of the charging stations. ...
Master thesis (2020) - Vyshnavi Ullattil, Amineh Ghorbani, Bert Enserink, Justyna Tasić, Alexander Jachnow
Kerala is the South-western state in the Malabar coast of India that experiences floods. The disaster management in this state is response-centric and the 2018 floods indicated the need for a transition from a response-centric approach to a resilient flood risk management (FRM) approach. According to Vincent Ostrom, multi-level governance (MLG) is required for the effective provision of a public good or service and when considering FRM to be a public good/service, it can be inferred that MLG is required for the effective provision of FRM. Kochi, the largest urban agglomeration in Kerala and the location of interest for this research, has a MLG structure and yet does not have an effective resilient FRM system due to the governance issues within FRM. This research is aimed towards adding an additional layer to the existing researches within the domain linking MLG and FRM by taking a data-driven modelling perspective. In order to achieve this, the existing system is viewed as a complex adaptive system (CAS). The existing flood risk governance arrangements (FRGA) were modelled with the help of MAIA (Modelling Agent Systems based on Institutional Analysis) metamodel and Agent-Based Model (ABM) to derive insights about the characteristics of MLG relevant to the governance issues faced by the resilient FRM in Kochi. The results revealed that the existing power distribution among the State, District and Local authorities must be changed to ensure a better resilient FRM system. Furthermore, the results revealed that the network formation among local communities, non-governmental organizations (NGOs) must be encouraged. The research enabled to propose certain policy recommendations - the existing structure must acknowledge and incorporate the need for monitoring the implementation stage of the policies developed. The existing structure must acknowledge and accommodate the need for a better clarity on the responsibilities of decision-makers. The positive influence of networks is higher than the negative influence of the opportunistic behaviour shown by stakeholders. It is thus recommended to encourage network formation among community members, NGOs and government authorities. This encouragement can be provided through “triggering” events. This research looked into environmental damage which can be referred to as a negative “triggering” event. However, positive “triggering” events must be explored. With respect to the power allocation aspect of decentralization, the research gives three recommendations - when considering the definition of resilience to be the ability of system to absorb shocks and show the least fluctuations, the recommendation is to ensure a power distribution set up where the District authority has the highest power followed by the Local authority and State authority. When considering resilient FRM cycle to involve distinct phases, the recommendation is to adopt “policy switching” which is defined in this research as the approach of considering a combination of policies in terms of power distribution such that the requirement of each phase is addressed. In general, the District and Local authorities must be more involved in the decision-making within resilient FRM cycle.

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An exploration of business perspectives

Master thesis (2020) - E.I. Castanos, H.G. van der Voort, B. Enserink, E.M. Nieuwenhuis, Sabrina Helmyr
Climate change adaptation is needed in response to the extreme weather events such as heat waves and rainfall-induced flooding in the Netherlands. There is a mandate from the national government to become climate- and water-proof by 2050, and the onus is on local governments to fulfill these goals. Local governments, in turn, need to activate stakeholders in their networks to become more climate adaptive. This research focuses on one group in particular, businesses located on business parks. Via the Q-methodology, fourteen businesses are interviewed and their perspectives with respect to the need and urgency for, as well as, the costs and benefits of climate adaptation are documented, analyzed, and interpreted, resulting in a typology of business perspectives on climate change adaptation. Specific recommendations for government are presented based on this more nuanced understanding of the motivations and barriers businesses face. Specifically, subsidy is largely rejected, the role of regulation remains important for some, and for all, the real risks and practical solutions are needed, which is viewed as the role of government to communicate. ...